Oil prices have soared, and the "crowd" is bullish, but I am impressed at the caution of producers to come back online. Gold rallied nicely from record low optimism, but optimism has risen. 10-year T-note yields are hard to predict and are often contrary to crowd psychology. S574A was recently still excessively optimistic. ETF flows and record margin debt confirm that optimism. Real dividend yields plunge.
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