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Flash PMIs show solid Q2 growth
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Composite flash PMI hits highest level since April 2022, led by stronger services growth. LEI continues its negative streak, signaling likely slower growth ahead, but no recession. Existing home sales continue to decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
NVDA is overbought but does it matter?
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Nvidia (NVDA) is looking meaningfully overbought, measured by its 42-day (2-month) return recently exceeding 70% for only the fifth time in the past 20 years. Does that mean it's time to sell?

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Is the job market weaker than we think?
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There is reason to suspect that some jobs data is being overstated. We explain why it's likely we'll see some downward revisions to payrolls. However, it's highly unlikely that the downward revisions will ultimately unveil an extremely weak labor market and/or recession.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Housing starts and permits drop
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Led by a cratering multifamily sector, construction activity declines. Falling builder confidence points to continued weakness ahead. Philly Fed factory activity and expectations weaken. Current and expected price pressures rise. Jobless claims edge down, but trend and continuing claims move up, a sign of easing labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Second half sector outlook
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The timing of Fed cuts, presidential election, and the resiliency of the economy should help drive 2H leadership. Given excessive optimism and valuations, positive earnings and revision trends will be essential for Growth sectors to maintain momentum. The sector model continues to lean towards Value sectors, but the spread has narrowed, and we could tactically add to our Growth allocation if the trend continues.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Second half outlook for global allocation
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Watch for continued choppiness and potential correction with cyclical bull remaining intact. The third quarter may look a lot like the second quarter, with the year ending like it started. With bond yields declining, expect gold strength and a weaker dollar, to the benefit of EM and the detriment of Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Second half U.S. equity outlook
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Second-half EPS estimates, Fed and election uncertainty, optimism, and breadth divergences leave the market vulnerable to a correction. As long as the soft landing and modest EPS acceleration remain intact, so should the cyclical bull market. The best chance for small-caps may come when the Fed cuts; watch Growth's earnings revisions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Divergences within thematic Tech too
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S&P 500 Technology has returned 12% over the last three months yet the percent of companies above their 200-day moving average has dropped by about 11% points. In this publication we look for similar divergences within Tech themes. Like S&P 500 Technology, Tech divergences are often driven by strong Titan performance and weakness in Software. Big Data, 5G, Blockchain, Cybersecurity, Internet, Cloud and Work from Home themes are on our negative divergence radar.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Is China taking a breather?
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China's latest data dump disappointed. If sustained, it presents risks to the relative strength of China's equity market. However, on balance, we're not seeing any major breakdowns in the data, which will continue to prop up global growth and keep the expansion intact. We maintain our view that China's long-term risks are tilted to the downside.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Retail sales weaken in Q2
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Retail sales come in softer than expected in May, partly due to lower goods prices. Industrial production jumps. Broad-based gains in manufacturing output. Business inventories keep in line with sales.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Growth funds gobbling assets
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At $7.7 billion month-to-date, large-cap Growth ETF inflows are on pace for a monthly record. Mega-cap outperformance has pushed measures of sentiment into overly optimistic zones and suppressed realized volatility. Bonds broke-out to two-year highs, however, the long-term treasury yield decline appears stretched.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Utilities and the sector rotation
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Political uncertainty in Europe has furthered a rotation into Defensive sectors and presents a headwind for Cyclical/Defensive sector performance in the near-term. However, the broad macroeconomic and market backdrop is still supportive of Cyclical sectors. The Utilities sector looks excessively cheap, explained by the long-term outlook for earnings growth, though there is not enough evidence to overweight the sector yet.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Surprising K-shaped cyclical sentiment
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A number of key cyclical sentiment/valuation indicators from the Fed suggest high risk with people fully invested at high valuations. Nevertheless, other indicators of social mood show rather dramatic pessimism, which could give the bull market a longer time to justify our overweight position since late 2022. My guess is that the difference is between rich folks, who own stocks accounting for the excess optimism, and less wealthy folks, who have greater skepticism.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
BEM buy amid tipping points for Japan, France
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BEM flashes buy. Looking to add to exposure on weakness. U.S. has rallied hard, especially relative to Europe. Looking to increase exposure on weakness. Japan on cusp of major breakdown. Looking to further reduce exposure.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
New high divergences
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As record highs reached by major benchmarks, breadth has weakened. Benchmark records are not confirmed by most markets, sectors and stocks. Thrust signal from 30-day new high indicator would require substantial breadth improvement.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumer sentiment declines
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Consumer sentiment falls to a seven-month low. Inflation expectations remain elevated. Import prices decline, partly due to dollar strength.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Moving closer to net global easing
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Two major central banks, the ECB and BoC, cut their main interest rates last week. This puts our global central bank measure on the cusp of net accommodation, a bullish condition for equities. We introduce reports for the ECB and BoC that show performance of various asset classes after first rate cuts and entire rate cut cycles.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Correlations cause for concern?
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Following our U.S. Equity Team's upgrade of Growth over Value and large-caps over small-caps, we like AIQ's high correlation with growth (SPYG) and IBIT's (Bitcoin proxy) and URA's low correlations overall. Our long-term bullish view for millennial consumer spending remains. However, IEDI's modestly high correlations to small-caps (IWM) and Value (SPYV) could contribute to a downgrade should they strengthen.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Corporate debt remains on sound footing
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Credit and financial conditions remain favorable for businesses and the stock market. Corporate debt/GDP is lower than pre-pandemic and the debt burden is historically low. High corporate liquidity implies low risk of financial stress.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Another golden opportunity?
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Gold sentiment and seasonality suggest that more consolidation may be needed for a sustained recovery, along with continuing weakness in U.S. dollar and interest rates. Long-term outlook supported by supply/demand balance and long-term model. Commodity uptrend and gold/silver momentum also bode well for gold. Watch for buy signal from short-term model.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Style stop losses
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Shifting tactical allocation to Growth over Value from neutral and to large-caps from small-caps. Both Value and small-caps broke multi-year support relative to Growth and large-caps, respectively. Models are confirming, reinforcing secular trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
PPI inflation eases
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PPI inflation eased more than expected in May, driven by lower energy prices. Pipeline price pressures, however, were mostly up, posing a risk to further disinflation. Jobless claims pick up, indicating some softening in labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Still waiting for greater confidence
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Median participant only sees one cut this year, matching our expectations, but four next year, while longer run neutral rate moves up to 2.75%. The SEP surprised by showing an acceleration of GDP in 2H with higher inflation and no change in the unemployment rate. Policy to remain restrictive for longer.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Mega-caps masking breadth concerns for Tech
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Several breadth measures have deteriorated for Technology even as the sector has set new highs. Continued strength from the sector's mega-caps could allow time for more stocks to reestablish uptrends and resolve breadth divergences bullishly. Sector earnings revisions have been rising, but valuations adjusted for expected growth still look expensive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Hopeful disinflation signs
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Both CPI and core CPI came in softer than expected in May. Shelter remained sticky. The super-core and other measures of underlying price pressures eased, reflecting broadening disinflation. Continued moderation in inflation, even if it is timid, creates room for Fed rate cuts later this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Pet Care wins best in show
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It is difficult to know if this is just short covering or a true inflection point, but Pet Care has been a top-performing theme over the past eight weeks.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
A bull in need of sentiment relief
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The median correlation for the top-10 S&P 500 stocks has risen to the highest level since August 1997. Analysts' buys portfolio has a high correlation with relative strength portfolio indicating performance chasing. Analysts' buys portfolio price/book spread is near all-time highs.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Waving goodbye to the American dream
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Housing is unaffordable for large swaths of Americans but varies widely by region. Supply will remain constrained due to the "lock-in" effect, demographics, and rising development costs. We estimate the U.S. is short between 800,000 and 2.2 million housing units.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Small business optimism up slightly
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NFIB index picks up in May, but still within its two-year range. Subdued business optimism suggests continued, but slow, economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
The lunacy of the 2% inflation target
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In a close call, we expect the median dot to show one rate cut this year. The longer run neutral rate should drift up to 2.75%. The Fed should have a higher inflation target than the ECB.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Employment trends improve
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ETI rebounds in May, pointing to continued payrolls and economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Fab Five Tape mixed but uptrend intact
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The Fab Five Tape is currently neutral. Breadth indicators are mixed, with some divergences. The uptrend in stocks remains intact.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
A more bullish earnings influence
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After buy signal from earnings growth breadth indicator, model's equity percentage close to our maximum exposure recommendation. Earnings growth following last year's estimate and breadth of positive revisions. Most earnings beat rates above historical medians with positive year-to-year changes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Still too hot for the Fed
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Sizable job gains exceeded the highest estimate from economists. AHE also exceeded forecasts. Unemployment rate edged up to the Fed's yearend forecast of 4.0%. But that was mostly due to people exiting the labor force, and not due to layoffs. This report suggests the Fed will remain patient and hold policy steady next week.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Big mean reversion potential brewing
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We believe the great disparity in sector returns is setting up Consumer and Physical sectors and related themes with large mean reversion potential, not unlike 2000.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Update on my outlook for inflation
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I have been hopeful for disinflation toward 2% since the summer of 2022. Harmonized CPI inflation is 2.4% and core inflation ex-shelter is 2.1%. But we still need a softer economy - real disposable personal income, employment trends, real policy growth, economic surprises, and consumer expectations suggest that could be happening.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Layoff trends still subdued
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Jobless claims remain range-bound, suggesting continued low unemployment. Unit labor costs revised down. Trend suggests further disinflation and a tailwind to profit margins. Trade deficit spikes in April, a likely drag on Q2 GDP growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Slowing vs. accelerating and more on corporate convergence
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ISM services exports exceeded imports by a record 19.0 points. IG credit spreads could converge further to the level of CDS. Improving corporate liquidity and positive carry support spread convergence.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Is good news good news again?
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Investors are balancing between growing evidence of an economic slowdown and the implications for rate cuts. Moderating, but positive, growth would be the best-case scenario for stocks. Value and small-caps are near multi-year support relative to Growth and large-caps respectively.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Global economy unstoppable
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Global growth accelerated to a one-year high, according to the latest global PMIs, amid signs that growth is broadening among economies and sectors. Along with other macro indicators, this is supportive of the current bull market in equities. Prices remain stuck above pre-pandemic, possibly reflecting a new normal.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Services activity strengthens
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The Services PMIs jump in May, consistent with firmer economic growth. Price pressures mixed. ADP payrolls growth moderates, a sign of some cooling in labor demand. Light vehicle sales rise only slightly in May. High financing costs and prices restrain growth. Mortgage applications fall, pointing to continued weakness in home sales.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Thematic update June 2024
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Only 16 of 48 themes outperformed in May, the lowest level in four months. However, risk appetite was evident in several beaten-up themes such as Clean Energy, EVs, and Genomics. We need to see more evidence that the rally since late April is more than a just a bounce from being oversold in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Focus | Monthly
Monthly sector update - June 2024
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The S&P 500 advanced 4.8% in May, marking the highest return for the month of May since 2009. All Magnificent 7 components but Tesla had a positive return in May, and the seven stocks contributed more than 60% of the index's return. Utilities kept its positive momentum going, gaining 8.5% during the month, second best among all sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Inflation, ECB rate cut, the euro, and equities
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The ECB will most likely lead the Fed in cutting rates tomorrow, but this isn't necessarily bearish for the euro, and we have a neutral outlook for the currency. Historically, European equities have performed strongly following the first cut after a tightening cycle. And while inflation surprised to the upside last week, the longer-term trend remains supportive of equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Why median valuations matter
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Mega-caps dominate benchmarks' market-caps and are more overvalued than the rest of the market. The S&P 500 median P/E would need to fall 31% to hit its long-term median and 19% to reach its 20-year norm. Small-caps and Value are less overvalued than the median Growth stock.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
On watch for resumption of uptrend
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Absent a sharp global economic slowdown, the environment for commodities remains supportive. Conditions that concerned us previously have largely resolved clearing the way for commodities to move higher. However, near term weakness in crude could weigh on the broader index if longer-term support does not hold and the downtrend strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly
NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) International Equity Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® International Equity Performance | Monthly
Job openings decline
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Job openings fall to lowest level since early 2021, showing cooler labor demand. But layoffs also decline. Without a hit to unemployment, the Fed can keep rates higher for longer. Factory orders increase at a subdued pace, reflecting sluggish manufacturing activity.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Smart Sector(R) International Equity Commentary - June 2024
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The Catastrophic Stop model entered June fully invested. The International Equity Core model is overweight China, France, and Switzerland and underweight the U.K., Australia, Japan, and Canada. The Explore model favored Chile, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea.

Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® International Equity Commentary | Monthly
NDR International Equity Strategy Commentary - June 2024
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The All-Country World ex.-U.S. Total Return Index increased by almost 300 basis points in May. The International Equity Core model is overweight China, France, and Switzerland and underweight the U.K., Australia, Japan, and Canada. The Explore model favored Chile, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea.

Ned Davis Research | NDR International Equity Strategy Commentary | Monthly
NDR Global Allocation Strategy Commentary - June 2024
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During May, global stocks outperformed U.S. bonds by more than 240 ba sis points. The Global Allocation model's equity weighting remains above benchmark allocation. The model has an above benchmark weighting for Emerging Markets and Europe ex. U.K., while holding below benchmark allocations for Pacific ex. Japan, Canada, the U.K., and Japan. The U.S. allocation rose to marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Global Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Commentary - June 2024
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During May, global stocks outperformed global bonds by more than 280 ba sis points. The model's equity allocation remains above benchmark weighting, with U.S. Large-Caps, U.S. Growth, U.S. Value, and International Developed each receiving more than 10% allocation. The largest fixed income allocations were Emerging Market bonds and U.S. High Yield, both with more than 5% weights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
Smart Sector (R) U.S. Large-Cap Equity Commentary - June 2024
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The Catastrophic Stop model improved during the month and entered June with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation. Financials, Information Technology, Health Care, Energy, and Utilities are above benchmark weight. Real Estate, Communication Services, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples are below benchmark weight.

Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® U.S. Large-Cap Equity Commentary | Monthly
NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Commentary - June 2024
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The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return Index rebounded in May and breadth sharply improved. The Fixed Income Allocation model entered June positioned for an inflationary environment. Emerging Market bonds, U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. High Yield, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are above benchmark weight. International Investment Grade, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, and U.S. Long-Term Treasurys are below benchmark weight.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) Fixed Income Commentary - June 2024
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The Fixed Income Risk Management model improved during the month and entered June with a fully invested allocation to fixed income sectors. The Fixed Income Allocation model entered June positioned for an inflationary environment. Emerging Market bonds, U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. High Yield, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are above benchmark weight. International Investment Grade, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, and U.S. Long-Term Treasurys are below benchmark weight.

Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® Fixed Income Commentary | Monthly
NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Commentary - June 2024
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Breadth improved sharply-10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted positive returns for the month. Financials, Information Technology, Health Care, Industrials, and Utilities are above benchmark weight. Real Estate, Communication Services, Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples are below benchmark weight.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) U.S. Large-Cap Equity Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® U.S. Large-Cap Equity Performance | Monthly
NDR International Equity Allocation Strategy Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR International Equity Strategy Performance | Monthly
NDR Global Allocation Strategy Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Global Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) Fixed Income Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® Fixed Income Performance | Monthly
NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Performance - June 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
Plenty of evidence policy is restrictive
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There's a wide range of views from policymakers about how restrictive the current stance of monetary policy is. Most are content to remain patient and let the data tell them. We provide seven signs that policy is restrictive using the latest data from the banking system, including slower loan growth and rising delinquencies on consumer loans and CRE.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Mixed manufacturing reports
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The average of the ISM and S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs shows factory activity still sluggish. Price pressures mixed. Construction spending off slightly, led by a weaker nonresidential sector.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
ETF Model maintaining overweight equities allocation
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The top-level equity allocation remains at 86%. Technical and macro indicators are still positive on equities. U.S. Large Caps, U.S. Growth, and International Developed hold the largest allocations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly
NDR U.S. Dividend Income Stock Strategy
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Ned Davis Research | NDR U.S. Dividend Income Stock Strategy | Monthly
NDR U.S. Large-Cap Multi-Factor Stock Strategy
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Ned Davis Research | NDR U.S. Large-Cap Multi-Factor Stock Strategy | Monthly
NDR U.S. Dividend Income Stock Focus List
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Ned Davis Research | NDR U.S. Dividend Income Stock Focus List | Monthly
NDR U.S. Large-Cap Multi-Factor Stock Focus List
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Ned Davis Research | NDR U.S. Large-Cap Multi-Factor Stock Focus List | Monthly
NDR U.S. Growth Stock Strategy
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Ned Davis Research | NDR U.S. Growth Stock Strategy | Monthly
NDR U.S. Growth Stock Focus List
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Ned Davis Research | NDR U.S. Growth Stock Focus List | Monthly
A weighty Uncle Sam
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U.S. dominance has sent concentration to record highs. Weights of the U.S. and Tech sector have also reached record highs. The global uptrend is well intact for now, but reversing weights would have bearish implications.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Sticky PCE inflation, despite cooler consumer spending
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PCE inflation comes in line with expectations. Underlying price pressures still high, keeping the Fed on hold for now. Regional factory activity remains weak.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Looking for Home Improvement improvement
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Since we went overweight the consumer ETF (IEDI) at the end of February, the largest drag on performance has been the Home Improvement Retail sub-industry. But are we nearing a bottom?

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Is there really "no stag" and "no flation"?
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Stagflation is an emotionally charged term, invoking bad memories from the 1970s. But there is a very real possibility of below-trend growth and above-target inflation. So far in Q2, the no-landing case appears to have the upper hand.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
More bullish evidence and the Growth/Value message
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Strengthened weight of the evidence has sent our Stock/Bond Composite to higher highs. ACWI Growth/Value Ratio and our Risk-On/Risk-Off Ratio have continued to confirm the ACWI's record highs. Indicator evidence and relative performance trends will continue to tell us if the current healthy conditions will remain intact or deteriorate, as in 2021-2022.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Potential pitfalls of a Growth sector comeback
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A strong Q1 earnings season has reignited investor enthusiasm for Growth. Extreme sentiment, seasonal headwinds, and elevated valuations could challenge Growth sector leadership in the second half of 2024. The sector model has held steadfast in its preference for Value sectors over Growth sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Q1 GDP revised down, led by softer consumer spending
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Despite slower Q1 GDP growth, robust domestic demand and sticky inflation to keep Fed rates higher for longer. Jobless claims remain low, reflecting continued strong labor demand. Pending home sales plunge, pointing to weak existing home sales in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
U.K. REITS at an inflection point
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Company announcements and survey data point to an improved outlook for U.K. commercial property. Positive trend and breadth indicators point to further upside for listed U.K. REITS. However, if the recent U.K. economic recovery falters and inflation proves stickier than expected this would be problematic.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Is Trump 2.0 a risk for bond investors?
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One narrative describes seven reasons which would result in higher inflation and a bigger term premium. It is too soon to draw any firm conclusions about what economic policy would look like under a Trump 2.0. A Biden re-election would likely ensure a continuation of current economic policies.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Eyeing breadth divergences
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Several breadth indicators have not confirmed the May highs in the popular averages. Most divergences resolve themselves bullishly. Market tops start somewhere, so divergences need to be monitored.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Should we worry about commodity inflation?
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Global inflation has a notably positive correlation with commodity prices. With commodity prices on the rise, this creates an upside risk to inflation. However, the risk varies widely by economy. One clear standout is the U.S., followed by its largest trading partners and Europe. China and India are much less sensitive.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
FAN's tailwind
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The First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN) broke out to a 41-week high, and Wind moved up to 67 on our Thematic Scorecard Ranks. Utilities, which make up 56% of FAN, are showing improving margins in the U.S. and European Utilities' advancing ROE support the sector's relative momentum. USD weakness and declining global bond yields would act as additional tailwinds; however, absent additional economic or equity deterioration, we believe it premature for a bullish Wind position.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Richmond factory activity improves
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Richmond Manufacturing Index rebounds, but growth still sluggish. Mortgage applications decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
A check on consumer sentiment
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Household net worth is 7.6 times disposable income, 2.6 standard deviations above its historical average. So why is consumer sentiment falling? We see inflation as the primary suspect. It is good that U.S. consumer confidence has fallen out of the "extreme optimism" zone, but it is better to see sentiment trending higher rather than lower.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Inflation to remain sticky in 2H 2024
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We revise up our projection for CPI inflation by 25 bp to 2.75%-3.25% in 2024. Slower disinflation amid continued economic growth, still tight labor markets, firming goods inflation pipeline, and more tariffs. Shelter inflation to continue to drift lower this year, but will likely rebound next year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Consumer confidence rebounds
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Consumer confidence consistent with continued economic growth. Existing home prices rise further.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
My most outrageous fixed income call
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Although corporate credit spreads are historically tight, they can remain tight for a long time. A strong economy, meager non-government supply, discount bonds, and the rise of electronic trading argue for further compression of IG spreads. Ultimately, the IG spread should compress to the level of CDS, producing a spread target of roughly 50 bp.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
What is driving the cycle composites' bullish pivot
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The NDR S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 suggests a summer rally. The four-year cycle is a big reason, with sell in May less powerful during election years. Election year rallies often start when the winner of the presidency becomes clear.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Consumers remain gloomy
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Despite modest improvement since the preliminary survey, consumer sentiment still down in May. Durable goods orders increase, but trend remains subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Ether joins the spot ETF party
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Ether has jumped 28% since mid-May when the SEC began engaging with Ether spot ETF applicants, but it could run even further if Bitcoin serves as a guide.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Have higher interest rates been inflationary?
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Although the transmission mechanism of the Fed's tight monetary policy has not been as strong, that shouldn't be confused with tighter policy being more inflationary. The arguments for lower rates and lower inflation don't hold when one compares to history and the rest of the world. Many Americans are truly feeling the transmission of tighter policy.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Flash PMIs show surging growth in May
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Composite PMI jumps in May to highest level in over two years, led by services. Price pressures also pick up. Initial jobless claims decline, as labor demand remains robust. CFNAI falls in April, but trend level consistent with continued economic growth. New home sales decline amid high mortgage rates and other affordability challenges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Rising optimism and the EM recovery
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Return of optimism has driven global equities to new highs, not yet a warning of complacency. Increased risk appetite has helped the EM Index recover, now supported by China. But EM potential in question considering challenges to China's outlook and track record of EM currency rallies failing to persist.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Why sector ETFs are lagging their benchmarks
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RIC diversification rules mean that sector ETFs are often underweight some of their largest constituents compared to S&P 500 sectors. Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Communication Services ETFs have lagged their benchmarks most over the last 12 months. RIC diversification is a double-edged sword that can just as easily boost returns as suppress them.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
EM debt still looks relatively attractive
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EM has outperformed the Aggs since our upgrade to overweight in February 2023. EM is also positioned to outperform in the coming months. A weaker USD and firmer commodity prices would help the outlook. Spreads are tight but have further room to compress amid strong technicals.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Positive resolution
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Shifting 5% from bonds to stocks in our U.S. asset allocation recommendation. The new recommended weights are 70% stocks (max 15% overweight), 25% bonds (10% underweight), and 5% cash (5% underweight). Technical indicators, earnings growth, and recent economic reports drove the change.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Why the evolution of China's trade matters
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China's trade surplus continues to swell, despite rising tensions with Western economies. But this masks many changes under the surface, some unbeknownst to many, that have been long in the making. China's longer-term growth trajectory remains worrisome due to many natural and self-induced factors. The evolution of China's trade presents another downside risk.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Existing home sales continue to struggle
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Existing home sales decline amid high mortgage rates and lack of inventory, especially of lower-priced homes. Architecture billings remain in contraction territory, pointing to weak CRE construction this year. State coincident indexes show continued economic expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Trade Initiation: Overweight Uranium and Uranium production
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We again recommend overweighting the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) relative to the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI). The long-term bullish narrative laid out in our prior trade initiation remains true while newly enacted, but not yet enforced, sanctions on Russian uranium should further support the price of uranium. We return to the theme with an overweight recommendation on improving technical indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Investment | N/A
Why stocks have rallied despite higher rates
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Higher interest rates have made bonds and cash reasonable alternatives to stocks. The percentage of stocks with dividend yields above T-note yields is the lowest since September 2007. Earnings growth, a return to pre-ZIRP valuation ranges, and the net payout yield explain why rates have not killed the bull market.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
TIPS at a tipping point
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This year's TIPS outperformance is likely coming to an end. Inflation expectations have been receding, as oil prices have retreated. Valuation modestly favors nominals. The TIPS ratio is toward the upper end of its range.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
What Q1 earnings means for European equities and Banks
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European earnings continue to provide fundamental support for the bull market in European equities. Valuations are still reasonable, albeit not as cheap as last quarter, implying that earnings need to beat forecasts by a greater margin to drive equities higher. European bank earnings have been particularly positive, suggesting outperformance could continue, on a tactical basis.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Indices confirming in the U.S. and globally
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Bullish trend confirmation provided by new highs among U.S. and global indices. DJIA has tended to perform better than normal after breaking above big round numbers. ACWI sectors are also confirming the uptrend.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Regime analysis enhancements
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Expanded the table view options to include several risk-adjusted measures. Added an option to show correlation matrixes of asset returns for given regimes. Effortlessly switch between nominal, real, and relative returns on histogram and time series charts.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
LEI points to slower growth ahead
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The LEI fell more than expected in April, pointing to slower growth ahead. Our ETM suggests continued moderate expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Fed up with high food prices
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Recently I paid $30 for a burger and beverage at a restaurant and finally reached my limit on high eating out prices. Maybe I am not alone as the ratio of restaurant to grocery sales may have peaked.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Headline or Harmonized CPI - which is better?
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Harmonized CPI shows inflation in the 2.0% vicinity. But it excludes owner-occupied housing and thus understates true inflation. By this measure, U.S. and Eurozone inflation is the same. But real GDP growth is much stronger in the U.S., which is why the Fed may lag the ECB in cutting rates.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Manufacturing output resumes its decline
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Led by vehicles and other durable goods, manufacturing output falls in April. Philly Fed factory activity weakens in May, an early sign of further slowdown in overall manufacturing. Housing starts pick up, but trend remains subdued. Initial jobless claims decline. Trend consistent with robust labor demand. Import prices jump, despite a strong dollar.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Yield downturn good news for gold
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Gold would benefit from continuing declines in nominal and real yields, TIPS and the expected real yield. Gold's long-term uptrend well intact and at forefront of commodity uptrend. Gold maintaining inverse correlation with U.S. Dollar Index, which has been losing momentum. Dollar has positive correlation with real bond yields, which have been dropping, and real rate differentials, which have been narrowing.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Assessing sector trend and breadth evidence
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The breadth recovery has been led by defensive Value and cyclical Value sectors. The market correction has not decisively altered established leadership trends. However, the sector model has shifted away from Growth sectors over the last few months.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Unimpressive moderation in CPI inflation
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CPI rises less than expected in April. Shelter and gasoline drive price growth. Super-core inflation still uncomfortable. Retail sales come in flat, showing tentative cracks in consumer demand. Builder confidence slumps, implying weaker housing starts ahead. Mortgage purchase applications also fall. Empire manufacturing activity continues to contract.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Return of shareholder capitalism
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A defining feature of Q1 earnings season is a surge in repurchase and dividend announcements, reversing a 2022-23 decline. The biggest shareholder payments have come from mega-cap tech, Financials, and Energy sectors. Focus on shareholder returns supports the bull market, provided firms do not overleverage their balance sheets.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Mid-May standouts - Water, China and Media
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We give a mid-month update on outperforming themes. Like April, themes within our Global Shock category are leading the way.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Will a less dovish Fed hold back other central banks?
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The Fed has not dissuaded many other central banks from easing policy in this current cycle. History suggests that short Fed easing cycles have not deterred other major central banks, like the ECB and BoE, from easing more aggressively. There could, however, be some second-round inflation effects stemming from the Fed's relative hawkishness, especially to emerging markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Long-term sentiment/valuation showing higher risks
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Long-term valuation measures are rising back toward record levels. Valuations relative to inflation look expensive. Shorter-term sentiment is more mixed.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Fund flows
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Flows to equity funds declined in April but rebounded in May. Bond flows are also improving this month. Flows to European equity funds are mostly positive this year while Latin American funds are experiencing outflows. Flows to Industrial sector equity funds and U.S. corporate bond funds stand out relative to other sectors for their higher year-to-date flows compared to 2023.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Producer prices point to sticky inflation
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PPI inflation accelerates, led by services. Small business optimism improves slightly, but still within a low range.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
What drives r-star and why it should be higher
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R-star is a useful theoretical concept for bond investors, but there is a wide array of estimates. R-star should reflect the fundamental determinants of potential growth. R-star should be higher than it was during the pre-pandemic period. We estimate the nominal longer run neutral rate is 4.0%, above the Fed's estimate.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
The friendliest trends
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Broad global trend strength is indicated by spreads between 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with equal-weighted ACWI at new bull market highs. Japan's long-term trend is the strongest among regions in our seven-way framework, followed by the U.S. Spreads are the widest for Communication Services among U.S. sectors and Mid-Cap Growth among other U.S. indices.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumer sentiment plunges
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A steep drop in consumer sentiment suggests slower economic growth ahead. Inflation expectations rise. Initial jobless claims spike, but the 4-week trend is still muted, consistent with robust labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
What is Millen-Z and how to profit from it
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Millen-Z is the generation we get when we combine the 90s Millennials with the 00s Gen-Z. We focus on this cohort because it had the highest number of births (81.3 mil.) of any 20-year period in U.S. history.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
MOVE over VIX!
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Our VIX indicator flashed a "sell" signal on Monday. But low VIX readings have been bullish for high yield. Falling bond volatility has been good for equities. Relatively high bond vol readings suggest stock investors may want to pay more attention to bond volatility than to stock volatility, as additional declines in bond vol could support a further rally in equities.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Upgrading our U.S. growth outlook for 2024
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We revise up our projection for 2024 real GDP growth by 50 bps to 1.5%-2.0%. The upward revision is prompted by resilient domestic demand in Q1, favorable credit conditions, and continued tight labor market. The economy is still on a slower growth trajectory, implied by falling soft data, slower hiring, diminishing excess savings, and rising delinquencies.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
The uptrend's on track - what could derail it
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Global breadth has improved after reversal from sentiment extreme. Outlook currently supported by bond yield retreat, dropping recession risk and rising earnings confidence. Continued improvement would be threatened by renewed bond yield advance, rising recession risk and reversing expectations for earnings growth.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Can we trust the Utilities turnaround?
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Upgrading Utilities to overweight. Health Care will see its allocation reduced but will remain an official marketweight recommendation. Risks for Utilities include rising interest rates and elevated debt burden.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Who will buy the bonds (an update)
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The buyers of bonds today are different from the buyers of bonds during the QE era. Today's buyers are price-sensitive, and the burden has mostly fallen on households. As long as the Fed is expected to cut rates, there will be plenty of buyers for U.S. Treasurys. When conditions change, prices can quickly change.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Three near-record futures positions
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Hedge funds have one of their biggest net short positions in Russell 2000 futures on record. Asset managers have close to the biggest net long position in EAFE futures since early 2020. Hedge funds were record net short two-year note futures heading into the FOMC meeting.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Wholesale inventories decline
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While wholesale inventories fell in March, stronger import growth implies a rebound in the coming months. Housing affordability remains depressed and a drag on existing home sales. Manheim used car prices fall, pointing to more downward pressure in the CPI for used cars and trucks. Employment Trends Index suggests slower payrolls growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Thematic update May 2024
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Breadth deteriorated slightly with 18 of 48 themes (38%) outperforming in March versus 19 of 48 in March. April was mainly risk-off driven by "higher for longer" rate fears, though we saw risk-on return late April. Commodity themes are showing leadership in a down market but watch performance as markets rise.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Focus | Monthly
Applying the NDR Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Investment Solutions Strategy Overview | Monthly
More earnings confidence
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Earnings beat rates relatively high with upgrade breadth improving. Forward earnings growth estimates are trending higher. Forward growth rates exceed trailing rates in most markets and sectors.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
European sectors: when to rotate?
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Stalling equity momentum has coincided with some rotation into Defensive sectors, while Cyclical Value strongly outperformed Cyclical Growth in March and April. We find evidence for a more moderate Cyclical sector tilt but not enough to recommend a Defensive sector tilt. We see the recent outperformance of Cyclical Value vs. Cyclical Growth in line with a short-term reversal from an extreme oversold condition.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Global growth accelerates
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Global growth accelerated to a 10-month high in April, according to the latest PMIs, and consistent with continued upside in global equities. Economic breadth remained strong, as most economies continued to expand. However, some leadership trends have changed. Despite some cooling in price pressures, they remain sticky.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Restrictive policy evident in SLOOS
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Lending standards tighten at a slower pace, amid weak demand. Distinction made between healthier large banks and other banks in several categories. Our CCI remains supportive of growth, profits, and capex.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Update on short-term correction and breadth thrust signals
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A long period of excessive optimism set up the likelihood of a short-term correction. We did correct the excess optimism but not down to truly extreme pessimism. And the NDR Cycle Composite looks for further correction into May. Breadth thrust buy signals from late last year should still have some residual value, though 9-to-1 down days are a concern.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Smart Sector(R) International Equity Commentary - May 2024
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The Catastrophic Stop model entered May fully invested. The International Equity Core model is overweight China, France, and Germany, while underweighting the U.K., Australia, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Israel, Mexico, Malaysia, Netherlands, and Sweden.

Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® International Equity Commentary | Monthly
NDR International Equity Strategy Commentary - May 2024
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The All-Country World ex.-U.S. Total Return Index declined over 170 basis points in April. The International Equity Core model is overweight China, France, and Germany, while underweighting the U.K., Australia, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland. The Explore model favored Israel, Mexico, Malaysia, Netherlands, and Sweden.

Ned Davis Research | NDR International Equity Strategy Commentary | Monthly
NDR Global Allocation Strategy Commentary - May 2024
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During April, global stocks underperformed U.S. bonds by more than 70 ba sis points. The Global Allocation model's equity weighting remains above benchmark allocation. The model has an above benchmark weighting for Emerging Markets and Europe ex. U.K., while holding below benchmark allocations for Pacific ex. Japan, the U.S., Japan, Canada, and the U.K.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Global Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Commentary - May 2024
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During April, global stocks underperformed global bonds by more than 70 ba sis points. The model's equity allocation remains above benchmark weighting, with U.S. Large-Caps and U.S. Growth each receiving more than 20% allocation. The largest fixed income allocations were Emerging Market bonds and U.S. High Yield, both with more than 5% weights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) Fixed Income Commentary - May 2024
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The Fixed Income Risk Management model deteriorated during the month, but entered May with a fully invested allocation to fixed income sectors. The Fixed Income Allocation model entered May positioned for an inflationary environment. The model is overweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. High Yield, and International Investment Grade, and underweight U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and Emerging Market bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® Fixed Income Commentary | Monthly
NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Commentary - May 2024
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The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return Index weakened in April, as breadth deteriorated. The Fixed Income Allocation model entered May positioned for an inflationary environment. The model is overweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. High Yield, and International Investment Grade, and underweight U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, and Emerging Market bonds.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Commentary - May 2024
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Breadth deteriorated sharply-10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted negative returns for the month. Financials, Information Technology, Health Care, and Utilities are above benchmark weight. Real Estate, Communication Services, Materials, and Consumer Staples are below benchmark weight.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Commentary | Monthly
Smart Sector (R) U.S. Large-Cap Equity Commentary - May 2024
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The Catastrophic Stop model deteriorated during the month, but entered May with a fully invested equity allocation recommendation. Financials, Industrials, Real Estate, and Utilities are above benchmark weight. Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Health Care are below benchmark weight.

Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® U.S. Large-Cap Equity Commentary | Monthly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
A Fed-friendly employment report
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Payrolls grew in April by the least in six months. The unemployment rate rounded up to 3.9%, the highest level since 2022. Wage growth moderated, a hopeful sign for softer super-core inflation. The ISM Services PMI fell below 50. Its employment component also fell, in line with cooler payrolls. Although we lean toward one Fed rate cut this year, these reports keep the possibility of two cuts on the table.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
China and India breaking out
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New report identifies key breakouts and breakdowns in stocks, sectors, industries, and markets. The report has identified breakouts in MSCI China and India. Aligns with the Global Regional Equity Model, China Rally Watch, and Asia Pacific Rally Watch.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Asia Comment | Mixed
NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Sector Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
Big Tech Cloud gaining momentum
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Our equal-weight Tech Titans group underperformed the S&P 500 in April, but do not blame performance on Q1 cloud sales or operating profits.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Is the slowdown finally happening?
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A slew of timely data out over the past week points to some softening in the economic picture. Stagflation is still out of the question. All scenarios, except for stagflation and early recession, are positive for equities.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Layoff trends remain subdued
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Low jobless claims and layoff announcements reflect strong labor demand. Slower productivity growth pushes up ULC in Q1, posing an upward risk to inflation. Factory orders pick up, but y/y momentum still shows weak manufacturing activity. Trade deficit little changed in March, while the 12-month total swells.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Where the U.S. economy stands in Q1 2024
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NDR Economic Cycle Infographic updated for Q1 2024, highlighting 12 economic sub-cycles. Real GDP growth moderated, led by weaker net exports and inventories. Most sub-cycles, however, reflect a resilient expansion. Labor market strength, high-tech capex, and government spending support aggregate demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Economics Cycle Snapshot | Quarterly
Smart Sector(R) Fixed Income Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® Fixed Income Performance | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) International Equity Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® International Equity Performance | Monthly
Smart Sector(R) U.S. Large-Cap Equity Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | Smart Sector® U.S. Large-Cap Equity Performance | Monthly
NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
NDR International Equity Allocation Strategy Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR International Equity Strategy Performance | Monthly
NDR Global Allocation Strategy Performance - May 2024
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Ned Davis Research | NDR Global Allocation Strategy Performance | Monthly
Shifting from bonds to cash, U.S. to EM
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Upgrading cash from underweight to marketweight; downgrading U.S. from overweight to marketweight; upgrading EM from marketweight to overweight. Asset allocation change responds to Global Balanced Account Model while regional allocation change responds to Global Regional Equity Model. Evidence insufficient for expecting EM to outperform over the long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Monthly sector update - May 2024
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The S&P 500 fell 4.2% in April, with ten of the 11 sectors declining during the month. Energy has now outperformed during the last 12 S&P 500 declines of 5% or greater. Among cyclical sectors, the sector model now favors Value over Growth by its widest margin in over a year.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly

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