Recent Publications

Philly Fed Manufacturing Up Modestly

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Philly Fed region production and hiring plans improve. Jobless claims decline. But consumer economic expectations deteriorate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Philly Fed Manufacturing Up Modestly

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Philly Fed region production and hiring plans improve. Jobless claims decline. But consumer economic expectations deteriorate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Utilities Power Outage

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Utilities strongly underperforming since December 21. PG&E plunge hurt, but weakness is widespread. A bottoming market and rising rates would cause us to downgrade the sector.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Several Metrics Consistent with End of Tightening Cycle

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If some of the political uncertainty clears, the Fed may hike one or two more times. This is the longest tightening cycle. Movement of yields, curve, spreads, and term premium consistent with end of cycle.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Europe Recession Concerns are Overblown

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Our Eurozone Recession Watch report is giving some negative signals, but we'd like to see much more before we make a recession call.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Builder Confidence Up, As Mortgage Rates Fall

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The Housing Market Index rebounds slightly, as lower mortgage rates boost housing demand. Import prices decline. Empire state services activity stalls.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Builder Confidence Up, As Mortgage Rates Fall

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The Housing Market Index rebounds slightly, as lower mortgage rates boost housing demand. Import prices decline. Empire state services activity stalls.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

S&P 500: 11% Off the Lows & 12% Below its All-Time High

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History leans towards a test of the 2018 lows before a resumption of secular bull market. Indicator improvement is encouraging, but underwhelming at this point. Looking to 2018 laggards for tactical trading opportunities once we turn bullish.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Maintain Higher Quality Exposure Within Europe

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The Interest Coverage strategy has positive trend, favorable breadth, and an improving factor composite score. Also, favor companies with greater price momentum, lower volatility, and cheaper free cash flow multiples. Favored Stocks Include: LVMH, Nestle, L'Oreal, Unilever, Equinor, Novartis, Roche Holding, Novo Nordisk, Safran, SAP, Compass Group, Relx, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

If No Recession, Valuations Greatly Improved

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44% of S&P 500 stocks now yield more than 10-year treasury yields. Stock market no longer in top quintile versus gross domestic income. Value line P/E ratio plunges to 14.3 times earnings.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Slower - but Still Robust - Growth Ahead

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We project 2.5% real GDP growth in 2019. The risk of recession in the near-term is still low. Three developments that cloud the outlook: the U.S. government shutdown, the global slowdown, and a negative stock market wealth effect.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Producer Price Inflation Slows

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PPI inflation moderates, led by energy. Empire manufacturing nearly stalls. Weekly retail sales pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Producer Price Inflation Slows

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PPI inflation moderates, led by energy. Empire manufacturing nearly stalls. Weekly retail sales pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Tradable Opportunity Approaching for Small-Caps

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Small-caps are oversold and could enjoy a multi-month rally as the broad market bottoms. Small-caps still face secular headwinds relative to large-caps, including the mature economic cycle, Fed normalization, and the secular bull market in equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Don't Panic over Corporate Leverage and Liquidity

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Fears over rising corporate leverage and deteriorating liquidity are largely overblown. Net debt relative to cash flow is modestly below the 49-year mean. The interest coverage ratio is well above the mean.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Investors Warming to Riskier Credit

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Strong weekly flows into iShares High Yield (HYG) & Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) funds signal a return of risk appetite. iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL) took in $1.5 billion last week. Several large bond funds broke to significant new highs last week.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Points to Slower Growth

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OECD U.S. CLI declines by the most in over three years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Points to Slower Growth

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OECD U.S. CLI declines by the most in over three years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Short-Term: Extreme Oversold and Volume Thrusts, Longer-Term: Still Stretched

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Decline in new lows "so bad, it's good". Double nine-to-one up days is bullish. Yet, longer-term trend evidence still stretched on upside.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

CPI Inflation Declines

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Lower energy prices and a stronger dollar put downward pressure on consumer prices. Housing affordability slips.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CPI Inflation Declines

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Lower energy prices and a stronger dollar put downward pressure on consumer prices. Housing affordability slips.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Soft Leads Hard; Some Animal Spirits Turn Down

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Crowd sentiment appears to have peaked. Usually hard data on the economy follows soft survey data. I think the economy is likely to slow.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - January 2019

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Model remains defensive, overweight Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities while being underweight Technology and Financials. Watch cyclical/defensive sector ratio for signs of a market bottom.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Jobless Claims Drop

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Jobless claims decline, but government shutdown poses a risk. Consumer comfort pulls back. Mortgage applications spike on lower rates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Jobless Claims Drop

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Jobless claims decline, but government shutdown poses a risk. Consumer comfort pulls back. Mortgage applications spike on lower rates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Politics and the Fed Will Drive U.S. Yields in 2019

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High political uncertainty making rate direction more challenging. Investors may have gone too far in pricing Fed rate cuts. Hard to get negative on corporate credit. TIPS and munis remain attractive.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Recommending GLDM Following Last Week's Gold Upgrade

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GLDM offers cheaper exposure to gold than GLD. Majority of equity ETFs produced short-term breadth thrusts. ETF Model to get less bearish, but remain well below 60% benchmark equity allocation.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Short-Term Sentiment Got Oversold, But Cyclical Sentiment is Just Neutral

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Short-term sentiment got oversold with extreme pessimism. But S&P 500 median P/E merely is neutral. And consumer confidence is still very high showing cyclical over-optimism not fully unwound.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Global Economy Slowing, More Downside to Come

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The latest PMIs show that the global economy grew at its slowest pace in over two years. Forward looking indicators suggest more downside in the coming months. The slowdown continues to broaden, led by Europe.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

After Historic Bounce, This Is Where the Indicators Stand

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Some breadth thrust signals have fired. Earnings expectations are falling, but likely have further to go. We will be looking for confirming evidence to increase exposure.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Small Business Optimism Drifts Down

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NFIB index declines, but job postings hit a new record high. Job openings exceed the number of unemployed for the 9th straight month. Retail sales close the holiday shopping season strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Small Business Optimism Drifts Down

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NFIB index declines, but job postings hit a new record high. Job openings exceed the number of unemployed for the 9th straight month. Retail sales close the holiday shopping season strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Political Hurdles Will Drive Fixed Income Trends in 2019

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Several political hurdles are scheduled to resolve in Q1. Favorable resolutions could resume policy normalization. Looking for a bottom in emerging market debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Monthly

Government Bond Funds Continue to Attract Assets

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Many large fixed income funds closed the week at fresh one-year highs. U.S. government bond funds have seen $5 billion in inflows to start 2019. Brazil and junior gold miners continue to show relative strength. Very few significant new lows made last week on an absolute or relative basis.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

The Saudi Put

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Saudi Arabia's 2019 budget assumes Brent crude oil will average ~$80 per barrel this year. If oil prices remain in the mid-$50s, Saudi Arabia's fiscal condition will rapidly deteriorate. The Saudi put is alive and well.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

ISM Services Activity Moderates

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declines, but level still in line with above-trend economic growth. Employment Trends Index suggests solid payrolls growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Moderates

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declines, but level still in line with above-trend economic growth. Employment Trends Index suggests solid payrolls growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tape Mixed: Short-Term Oversold; Longer-Term: Most Trend Evidence Still Negative

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The trading index gave a short-term buy signal on December 21 showing oversold condition. The High-Low Logic Index turns more favorable. But Big Mo Tape and NDR supply/demand still negative.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Strong Jobs Report Confirms Fed Outlook

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Employment closed the year on a strong note. Report doesn't alter Fed's policy path. But CEO confidence sinks to a recessionary level.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Strong Jobs Report Confirms Fed Outlook

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Employment closed the year on a strong note. Report doesn't alter Fed's policy path. But CEO confidence sinks to a recessionary level.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

The Decoupling Conundrum Why I Worry!

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More often than not, global stock trends affect nearly all markets. In early October, the NDR Global Recession Probability Model flashed a warning signal. The U.S. stock market flashed a sell signal for the U.S. economy, showing the U.S. may not be immune from global recession.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Increasing Bond Allocation, Upgrading Gold

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Increasing exposure to bonds and turning bullish on gold, moves consistent with rising risk aversion. Responding to the latest update of Global Balanced Account Model, we now recommend 40% stocks, 55% bonds and 5% cash. Gold upgrade is a response to strengthening momentum and worsening U.S. dollar outlook, among other factors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Technology to Underweight, Materials to Marketweight

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Tech down to underweight, Materials up to marketweight. Financials on short leash for downgrade.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops

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ISM manufacturing growth slows. But ADP payrolls surge. Layoffs remain low. Consumer comfort bodes well for spending growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops

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ISM manufacturing growth slows. But ADP payrolls surge. Layoffs remain low. Consumer comfort bodes well for spending growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Falling Foreign Yields Could Drag Treasury Yields Below Fair Value

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10-year Treasury yields closed the year exactly at fair value of 2.69%. Falling foreign yields could drag Treasury yields lower.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

2018 Benchmark Review: Few Places to Hide

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No major asset class gained more than 5% for the first time since at least 1972. S&P 500 posted biggest loss since 2008 amid rising volatility. Growth styles and sectors outperformed, but gave back some gains in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI Slides

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Factory activity moderates at yearend. Manufacturers' optimism dwindles. Sentiment about Texas services conditions plunges. Weekly retail sales still strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI Slides

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Factory activity moderates at yearend. Manufacturers' optimism dwindles. Sentiment about Texas services conditions plunges. Weekly retail sales still strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment Shifts From Optimism But Still Far From Pessimism

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Advisory service sentiment goes from extreme optimism to "neutral" zone. Valuation goes from very overvalued to the neutral zone. Mutual fund's cash versus interest rates are better, but are still too low.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

ETF Model Isn't Buying the Dip

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Equity allocation remains at 14%. iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) now the top-weighted equity fund. With bonds rallying, cash allocation has dropped back to 0%. Over 50% of allocation to U.S. and International Treasurys.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly

Factory Activity Weakens Across The Country

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Sentiment about Texas manufacturing conditions collapses. ISM Manufacturing Index for December projected to decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Factory Activity Weakens Across The Country

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Sentiment about Texas manufacturing conditions collapses. ISM Manufacturing Index for December projected to decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Crude Collapse Hurting Canada/Pipeline Stocks

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Several MBS funds closed last week at all-time highs. Crude collapse weighing on pipeline stocks. India relative strength at three-year high. Canada relative strength at 16-year low.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

Final Words for 2018 Debt - The Antithesis of Savings

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Big Mo Tape leans defensive. Debt is too high - savings too low. Interest rates are rising.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Bond Fund Investors Retreat to Safe Assets

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Outflows from risky bond mutual funds and ETFs continued into yearend. Liquidity ratio falls to 8-year low, making rallies difficult to sustain. Investors have increasingly moved to the safety of money market funds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Regional Factory Activity Moderates

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Chicago Business Barometer off slightly. Pending home sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Regional Factory Activity Moderates

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Chicago Business Barometer off slightly. Pending home sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The 2018 Tax Cut Where it Did and Did Not Work

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Companies should be investing in new capital spending, rather than buybacks. Despite a surge in profits, corporations have debt to GDP ratios higher than 2000 and 2007. Home and auto sales topped way back in November 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

An Update on Semiconductors in Five Charts

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S&P 500 Semiconductors relative valuations and breadth have improved since September 20. Semiconductor worldwide billings growth and earnings revision trends remain negative. S&P 500 Semiconductors has a better record as a leading indicator for the broader market than for the Technology sector.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Consumer Expectations Shaken

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Increasing concerns over economic outlook drive expectations down. Biggest drop in expectations since August 2011. Slower growth but no recession.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Expectations Shaken

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Increasing concerns over economic outlook drive expectations down. Biggest drop in expectations since August 2011. Slower growth but no recession.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Perspective on the Snapback - A Selling Opportunity

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U.S. market snapback has not changed our bearish view on global equities. Vast majority of markets and market cap in downtrends, with bottom evidence lacking. Maintaining minimum exposure to equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Last 5 Days = Textbook Panic Selling

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Last 5 days resemble selling panics of 1962, 2002, & 2015. In each case the market made a lower low and had double-digit gains one year later. Previous cases consistent with NDR 2019 Outlook: bottom by mid-year and double-digit returns. Defensive areas outperformed during past bottoming processes: Health Care/Staples in 2002 and Gold Miners in 2015. Waterfall declines rarely mark the bottom! Be on alert for a retest.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

Stocks Typically Higher Three Months After Pessimistic Extremes

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NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Fell Below 10 on Christmas Eve. SPY was higher three months later in 8 of 9 previous cases.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Expect Limited Damage from the Government Shutdown

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We expect limited damage to economic and financial market performance from the current shutdown, although the true impact will depend on how long it lasts.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Q4 Is Bad. Is That Good?

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The S&P 500 is on track for its 10th worst quarter since 1926. The S&P has posted strong gains after falling at least 15% in a single quarter, on average. Wait for indicators and models to confirm a bottom is in place. We are maintaining our negative outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Richmond Factory Activity Contracts

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Existing home prices moderate. Weekly retail sales strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Richmond Factory Activity Contracts

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Existing home prices moderate. Weekly retail sales strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Choose Lower Volatility Stocks in the U.S.

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Market weakness necessitates replacing the Standardized Unexpected EPS and Asset Turnover factors with lower Semivariance. Select companies with lower Semivariance, cheaper Free Cash Flow multiples, larger Interest Coverage, and smaller Earnings Volatility. Favored stocks include: Alphabet, Disney, Nike, Lowes, Wal-Mart, Chubb, Cigna, Danaher, Honeywell, Visa, Texas Instruments.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

It Pays To Be Wary of The Crowd At Extremes

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The problem with extreme optimism is, who is left to buy? Investors had gotten extremely optimistic on cyclical stocks. Investors were positioned bearishly for defensive sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

CFNAI Shows Slightly Slower, But Above-Trend, Growth

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Inflation pressures remain contained.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Slightly Slower, But Above-Trend, Growth

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Inflation pressures remain contained.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Nowhere to Hide Among Equity Funds

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Pharma (XPH) closed the week at a five-year low. Energy (IYE) relative strength at a 17-year low. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) has taken in $2.7 billion in December. Over $3 billion in outflows from Financial SPDR (XLF) this month.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

Sector Leadership After a Market Peak Fab Five Still Defensive

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Groups leading the market past September 20 are the ones that generally lead after market peaks. The Fab Five remains on its February 16, 2018 sell signal. Moving average model remains in its February 2, 2018 sell signal.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Consumer Spending and Income Rise

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Consumer sentiment up. But capex orders decline. Q3 real GDP revised slightly down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Spending and Income Rise

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Consumer sentiment up. But capex orders decline. Q3 real GDP revised slightly down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Profits Update Still Growing, But Problems Persist

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Overall profits not growing as fast as S&P 500 profits suggest. Stocks are overvalued. Year-to-year change in earnings' growth could peak in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Sector P/Es Are Still Not Cheap

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Most sector P/Es likely need to fall further to become attractive. Financials, Energy, Technology, and Industrials P/Es look most attractive relative to other sectors. Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, and Consumer Staples P/Es look least attractive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

LEI Y/Y Momentum Eases, but Growth Still Robust

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Philly Fed manufacturing subdued. State of economy weighs on consumer comfort. Jobless claims still show tight labor market.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Technical Damage Suggests Further Downside. Closing Last Satellite Position.

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Historical record is mixed following three-month declines of 13%. Closing U.S. Health Care Providers (IHF) satellite recommendation.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Final Cut in Equity Exposure - Down to the Limit

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Shifting 10% from stocks to bonds, dropping equity exposure to our downside limit of 40%. Response to Global Balanced Account Model estimates, more bearish Bear Watch report, and Risk-On/Risk-Off confirmation. Watch for levels of volatility, downside volume and panic that would increase the chances of a bottom.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Y/Y Momentum Eases, but Growth Still Robust

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Philly Fed manufacturing subdued. State of economy weighs on consumer comfort. Jobless claims still show tight labor market.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Don't Worry about a 3s5s Inversion - Yet

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If the inversion is confirmed by other portions of the curve, especially in the front end, we would become more concerned. Tighter financial conditions would add legitimacy to the curve signal.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Global Monetary Tightening Hurting Equities

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Led by EMs, more than half of the world's central banks are tightening monetary policy. Although this is a bearish condition for equities, it doesn't point to relative EM weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Slide From A Year Ago

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Architecture billings up, but trendline flat. Current account deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Existing Home Sales Slide From A Year Ago

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Architecture billings up, but trendline flat. Current account deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Monthly Valuation Update More Risks Than Rewards

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Valuations have improved as stocks have been down while earnings have soared. Still, stocks are expensive relative to long-term norms. Even versus interest rates, stocks are not cheap.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Look for Price Momentum Rebound in Europe

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Price momentum recently has underperformed, but typically rallies at this point in the cycle and has improving valuations and breadth Also, favor companies with greater interest coverage, lower volatility, and cheaper free cash flow multiples Favored Stocks Include: LVMH, Nestle, L'Oreal, Unilever, Equinor, Novartis, Roche Holding, SAP, Compass Group, Relx, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

What If Joe Kalish Changes His Mind?

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Our base case continues to be a cyclical bear market not associated with a recession. But our indicators drive our recommendations, not our expectations for the markets and economy. Equity indicators continue to worsen, so we are reducing our U.S. equity outlook to bearish.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Housing Starts and Permits Rise

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Commercial construction activity eases. Empire services growth moderates. But weekly retail sales jump.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Rise

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Commercial construction activity eases. Empire services growth moderates. But weekly retail sales jump.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What to Expect from the Fed this Week

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FOMC will deliver a "dovish hike." Fed wants to get to neutral but will instill a sense of caution and data dependency. Market pricing fewer hikes than Fed.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Builder Confidence Sinks

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Equipment finance industry confidence drops. Freight volume declines. Empire factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Builder Confidence Sinks

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Equipment finance industry confidence drops. Freight volume declines. Empire factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Lots of Funds Seeing Red

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Several short-term corporate bond funds trading at new 2018 highs. Largest corporate bond fund (LQD) at a 59-week high relative to global equities. Lots of big funds trading at new 2018 lows after last week. VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) trading at levels last seen in 2004. Over $2 billion in outflows from Financial Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) this month.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

Technology, Derivatives, and De-Regulation Turn Wall Street into Short-Term Casino

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Some 80% of trading volume is now done with algorithms, creating market noise. Derivatives and deregulation allow this and can disrupt trading and financial stability. Some "old-time religion" regulations could help.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Retail Sales Heading for Strong Q4

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Also, industrial production jumps on mining and utilities, Markit flash PMIs show slower growth, business inventories rise, budget deficit stays on widening path, and housing affordability little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Heading for Strong Q4

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Also, industrial production jumps on mining and utilities, Markit flash PMIs show slower growth, business inventories rise, budget deficit stays on widening path, and housing affordability little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q3 2018 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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U.S. debt is still relatively high. Net national savings still relatively low. With interest rates rising, debt could be a problem.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

China Trade War Q&A

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We answer your latest China/U.S. trade war questions. Leading indicators suggest more damage to come from the trade war, which will incentivize both sides to come up with an agreement.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Sector Leadership After The Last Hike

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Financials (marketweight) often outperforms six months after the last Fed rate hike. We would use Financials strength as a selling opportunity. Health Care (overweight) often outperforms 12 months after the last Fed rate hike.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Import Prices Sink

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Jobless claims show labor market is very tight. But consumer comfort pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Import Prices Sink

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Jobless claims show labor market is very tight. But consumer comfort pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ETF Ideas to Play Our 2019 Outlook

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Earlier this month, NDR released its 2019 Global Outlook and U.S. Outlook. We identify ETFs to play some of the firm's higher conviction calls.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Limited Yearend U.S. Dollar Funding Needs

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Cross currency basis swaps show little need for dollar funding this year. Libor/OIS spread widening due to repatriation flows. High hedging costs make U.S. debt relatively unattractive.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Monthly

CFOs Turn Gloomier, Talk of Recession Intensifies

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CPI inflation moderates on energy. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFOs Turn Gloomier, Talk of Recession Intensifies

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CPI inflation moderates on energy. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q3 2018 Quarterly Update: What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Recent data from the Fed's Financial Accounts report suggests households, foreigners, and institutions are overweight stocks. This has been offset by heavy corporate buying, leaving us with a mild uptrend for the last two years. This supports the argument that this bull market is in the mature phase.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Dividend Stock Positioning for Short-Term and Long-Term

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High dividend yielding stocks are a good place to hide during down markets thanks to their low betas. Long-term problems of central bank headwinds, overvaluations, and overbought conditions make them high risk for underperformance once the market resumes its uptrend.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Dips

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PPI inflation moderates, led by energy. Manpower employment outlook best in 12 years. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Dips

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PPI inflation moderates, led by energy. Manpower employment outlook best in 12 years. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What We Need to Turn Bullish Again on Credit

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We list seven factors that would brighten the outlook for credit. Higher liquidity, improved technicals, and better investor sentiment are needed. Higher oil, a weaker dollar, and a reduction in geopolitical risks would also help.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Longer Duration Funds Rebound

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Longer duration bond funds are rebounding. Several muni bond funds closed the week at fresh all-time highs. High-yielding defensive sectors continue to exhibit relative strength. Robotics themed funds showing absolute and relative weakness. iShares Value (VLUE) and Momentum (MTUM) Factor ETFs recently underwent rebalance. MTUM increased Health Care exposure dramatically.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

MLPs & Oil: Time to Put (Some) Money to Work

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OPEC's agreement and improving U.S. inventories have improved oil's outlook. If subsequent inventory reports continue to firm, we will upgrade our oil outlook from neutral to bullish. Now is the time to buy into select midstream energy.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

OECD U.S. CLI Portends Some Economic Weakness Ahead

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JOLTS:Labor market remains tight. Employment trends soften slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Portends Some Economic Weakness Ahead

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JOLTS:Labor market remains tight. Employment trends soften slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Death Cross Not Necessarily Deadly, But...

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The market has flashed a "death cross". The record on "death cross" is mixed at best. Nevertheless, one can't have a bear market and recession without one.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Jobs Growth Appears to Have Peaked

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This report will not derail the Fed from raising rates again this month. But three more hikes next year, as implied by the dot-plot, seems like a stretch.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Jobs Growth Appears to Have Peaked

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This report will not derail the Fed from raising rates again this month. But three more hikes next year, as implied by the dot-plot, seems like a stretch.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Debt Charts - It May Now Be a Concern

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Household debt is not a major problem. U.S. government debt is a problem. Global debt is also a problem.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

2019 U.S. Outlook - Stocks return to a secular bull as growth fears fade

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The U.S. stock market will likely enter 2019 in a cyclical bear but should transition to a bull in the first half. Our S&P 500 year-end target is 2950. Earnings and economic growth should slow but not collapse. Sector rotation will be critical, with Energy, Health Care, and Technology likely outperformers. Look for the Fed to raise rates twice in 2019.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

ISM Services Activity Strong

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ADP payrolls growth moderates. Some pickup in layoff trends. Factory orders decline. The trade deficit keeps widening. Nonfarm productivity remains subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Strong

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ADP payrolls growth moderates. Some pickup in layoff trends. Factory orders decline. The trade deficit keeps widening. Nonfarm productivity remains subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Downside Momentum and a Lack of Bottom Signs - Worse Before it Gets Better

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Expect global market to keep dropping toward March-April bottom, 60% probability. Probabilities are 30% for protracted decline and 10% for imminent reversal. Downside momentum and lack of bottom signs support our underweight equity allocation.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - December 2018

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Negative oil and rate sensitive industries bounced in November. Defensive over cyclical leadership remains.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Sentiment: Short Term, Intermediate Term, and Longer Term

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Short term - extreme pessimism. Intermediate term - a concern, but not bullish extremes. Longer term - still too much optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Increasing Bond Exposure Again

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We are increasing our bond exposure by 5% to 100% of benchmark duration. A failed confirmed technical breakout has put the bond bear call on hold. Europe remains troubled.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

After a Volatile Two Months, Where Do the Indicators Stand?

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Long-term trend indicators and models are providing more evidence of a bear market. More strong breadth days needed to give the all-clear. Small/large and Growth/Value are near inflection points.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

2019 Global Outlook - Look for markets to bounce back as world economies start rebounding

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2019 is likely to start with global equities in the current cyclical bear, but we are expecting double digit returns in 2019 with a low by mid-year. We are watching for Emerging Markets to outperform after the lows. Expect global economic conditions to improve in the second half, and we anticipate oil prices to end the year higher, remaining in its secular bull market. European hurdles will drive global bond yield and credit trends.

Ned Davis Research | Global Featured Report | Mixed

Global Growth Holds at Two-Year Low

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Global manufacturing conditions continue to slow on an aggregate basis, while weakness is broadening, giving further confirmation that the global slowdown remains intact. The downside is led by China, the eurozone, Japan, and several other emerging markets. But the U.S. and a few select emerging markets are looking up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

NYC Services Activity Continues to Moderate

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Weekly retail sales show strong y/y momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NYC Services Activity Continues to Moderate

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Weekly retail sales show strong y/y momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Shareholders and Fund Managers on Different Pages

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Fund managers were swimming against the public tide in October - buying while their customers were selling. Public favored global and short-term funds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

ETF Model Prefers Cash

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14% equity allocation matches the lowest recommendation since 2012. Model allocating over 50% to short-term Treasurys and cash.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly

Investors Continue to Stash the Cash

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Rate retreat benefiting the bond proxies. Preferred stock funds broke to new 2018 lows. Europe and commodity related funds continue to lag. Five different short-term bond funds drew in more than $1 billion in assets in November.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Shows Notable Strength

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Construction spending off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Shows Notable Strength

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Construction spending off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Leadership Consistent with Peak But Big Mo Tape Not Definitive

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Top five sectors rise historically 8.7% into market peak. Same five sectors rose 8.7% into September 20. Big Mo Tape neutral to defensive all year.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Regional Factory Activity Mixed

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Electroindustry business confidence sinks further.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Regional Factory Activity Mixed

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Electroindustry business confidence sinks further.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

The Confidence Spread Key Economic Leading Indicators

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The stock market is an excellent leading indicator for economic growth. A confidence spread between current conditions and future expectations are also useful. Both indicators give an alert that the economy may slow.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Energy Sector Performance after Major Oil Bottoms

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The Energy sector has performed well following oil bottoms after declines of 30% or greater that have not overlapped with a U.S. recession. We will wait for an oil upgrade before returning the sector to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Personal Income and Spending Rise

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Pending home sales drop. Jobless claims increase. Consumer comfort pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Personal Income and Spending Rise

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Pending home sales drop. Jobless claims increase. Consumer comfort pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Stock, Bond, and Commodity Funds All Losing Money

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The majority of stock, bond, and commodity ETFs currently have negative one-year returns. Current stock market correction following the path of a bear market. Money-market-like funds are seeing massive inflows. Dollar direction key for return of risk appetite.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

The Powell Put and The Trump Tariffs

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Chairman Powell sounds more dovish leading to 12-to-1 (up/down) volume day. Powell says he sees nothing lurking to kill the expansion. Thus far, the goods trade deficit has worsened.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

When Will the Fed Stop Unwinding its Balance Sheet?

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The Fed's balance sheet will reach the top of our target zone in the second half of 2020. If reserves become scarce, we would expect to see an increase in borrowings.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Global Recession Still not Fully Priced into Markets

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When the global economy has been in recession that excludes the U.S., global equities outside of the U.S. have tended to underperform. The largest regional drawdowns have been where the economic risks have been the greatest. Despite some fairly large equity-market corrections in some regions, our analysis suggests there's more downside to go.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Q3 Real GDP and Profits Strong

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New home sales decline. Goods trade deficit widens. Richmond Fed region posts moderate activity.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q3 Real GDP and Profits Strong

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New home sales decline. Goods trade deficit widens. Richmond Fed region posts moderate activity.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Seek High Quality Stocks When Volatility Increases

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Investors typically reward lower earnings volatility during sustained market weakness. Select companies with higher Standardized Unexpected EPS, greater Asset Turnover, cheaper Free Cash Flow multiples, larger Interest Coverage, and lower Earnings Volatility. Favored stocks include: Alphabet, Disney, Home Depot, Honeywell, Apple, Intel, Mastercard, and Texas Instruments.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

What to Watch to Get Low Risks/High Rewards High Pessimism and Better Values Are Key

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Cyclical sentiment/valuation has been rated high risk. I'd like to see P/E ratios around 15 to suggest better risks. I'd like to see Advisory Service Bulls around 53% to suggest lower risks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Oil's Message for the Stock Market and Economy

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Cyclical bear markets have occurred in eight out of the previous 12 oil declines of at least 30%. Recessions have occurred in only three of the 12 cases.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

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