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Running out of workers
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Although nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 210,000 in November, the labor market is tightening fast. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, down a record 1.6 ppt since June, excluding 2020. This provides enough cover for the Fed to accelerate the taper and could set up a rate hike next summer. In other reports, services activity surged, factory orders rose, but vehicle sales fell.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Improving rally prospects and an allocation shift
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Upgrading Europe ex. U.K. to overweight. Downgrading Japan to marketweight. Global equities recovering from oversold condition, supported by seasonal tendencies. Shifting exposure from Japan to Europe ex. U.K., consistent with regional allocation model and ACWI Scorecard. Reallocation also supported by sentiment considerations.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Great news on employment, no longer good news for stocks
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In April 2020, we noted a record high in the unemployment rate was bullish for stocks. But in spring of 2021, I said our indicators on the unemployment rate projected near 4% by the end of 2021. This morning's unemployment rate of 4.2% is not good news for stocks.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Is it real or is it metaverse?
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When Facebook announced it's changing its name to Meta, the Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (META) saw a surge of inflows, gaining $734 million in the 31 days after the announcement.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
I have some problems with the shortage of goods argument
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Shortage of goods - "at what price?" Imports have record boom - inventories also boom. The sales/inventory ratio near record highs is not necessarily bullish for stocks.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Omicron impact on global growth
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While little is known of the Omicron variant, past COVID waves suggest it could slow, but not derail, global growth. The bad news is it could delay normalization in global supply chains and inflation. As with most of the COVID waves we've observed this year, our focus returns to high-frequency data to get an early read on the impact of the virus.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Monthly sector update - December 2021
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Sector leadership has been more COVID-leader oriented since the emergence of Omicron. Crude finished the month down roughly 20% on concerns that renewed travel and mobility restrictions could lead to lower demand. Yields fell and the yield curve flattened during the month. We put Financials on watch for a downgrade.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Layoffs trend continues to slide
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Downward trends in jobless claims and layoff announcements point to tightening labor market conditions. Consumer comfort pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Evaluating economic scenarios to better understand markets
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We use our ETM and ITM to define four economic scenarios. Bonds performed well in disinflationary environments, regardless of the growth rate of the economy. Conversely, bonds performed poorly in inflationary environments. Stocks liked strong growth and low inflation but lost ground during stagflationary periods. Bonds performed well after our Stagflation Index peaked.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
ISM Manufacturing PMI strengthens
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ISM and Markit PMIs give mixed signals on factory activity, but both show growth remains above trend. ADP payrolls increase more than consensus, setting up expectations for a strong November Employment Report on Friday. Construction spending up modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Ten Most Interesting Thematic ETF Charts - November 2021
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We typically focus on thematic ETFs breaking out but in this edition we look at thematic trend break downs. Trends in FinTech, Health Care Innovation, and Leisure & Entertainment have been particularly concerning.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Cyclical sentiment/valuation remains high risk as we move into December
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S&P 500 price/sales and price/earnings look stretched. Advisory service sentiment and a $31.6 trillion fund survey look high risk. Cash relative to assets look low. I put the saving rate and margin debt into perspective.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Dispassionate analysis of market's reaction to Omicron
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Friday's decline did not push markets to deeply oversold or extremely pessimistic levels. If Omicron news is positive and long-term breadth remains healthy, it could set the stage for a year-end rally. If inflation forces the Fed to strike a more hawkish tone, it could have negative consequences into 2022 regardless of Omicron's impact.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Consumer confidence declines
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Lower confidence drives down consumer purchasing plans. Inflation expectations soar. Regional factory activity mixed. Existing home price growth moderates slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Expect a flatter yield curve
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Implementing a curve flattener trade. Models and momentum argue for a flatter curve. Rate hikes, slower growth, and weaker inflation support a flatter curve.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
ETF Model reduces risk exposure
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Top-level model fell to 58% stock allocation. Highest allocations are with U.S. Large Caps, U.S. Growth, and Cash. Although the PMI indicator improved to favoring stocks, global measures of equity market breadth and economic momentum now support bonds.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly
Pending home sales up
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Pending home sales show strong housing demand in the near-term. Texas factory activity mixed, but outlook strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Little Mo sell, Nasdaq divergences, but mildly bullish Big Mo
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Little Mo gave a sell signal on 11/22/2021, closing out buy signal from 10/5/2021. One day after the Nasdaq hit an all-time high, we had 213 new highs versus 554 new lows. However, Big Mo Tape remains mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Will the sun shine on TAN again this winter?
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December and January are two of the best three months, by average return, for the Invesco Solar ETF.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Will "hard" booming economic data follow the "soft" weak survey data?
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The Leading/Coincident Index is still on an April buy signal, and October hard data was booming, showing a pickup in growth. But some of this "heat" is inflation. The NFIB sentiment index from their small business survey falls into a negative zone for the economy. This survey is confirmed by another from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment. Hard data often follows soft (sentiment) data.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Turkey season
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An unorthodox response to inflation pushed the Lira to the most oversold EM currency we track. Favorable seasonality and a potential boost from currency mean-reversion may set up TUR as an interesting trade. A well-established relative downtrend and an economy struggling with high inflation argue against long-term allocations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Consumer spending up, despite surging inflation
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Highest PCE price inflation since 1990 erodes income growth. But consumer spending charges ahead. Consumer sentiment improves from mid-November, but still shows consumers worried about inflation. Initial jobless claims drop to lowest level since 1969. New home sales up slightly. Low inventory keeps pushing prices up. Durable goods orders decline, largely due to aircraft. Y/Y momentum still shows strong capex demand. The economic expansion broadens across states. Q3 real GDP revised up. Profits increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Global market risks in '22, Part II
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Unusually long stretch without double-digit decline and spiking VIX. Stock optimism has risen while bond optimism has dropped during bond yield advance. Watch growth-adjusted relative valuation, liquidity, yield curve, and relative performance of defensives and risk-off proxies.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Watch these charts
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In the second half of 2020, renewable energy, decentralized finance, and electric vehicles posted eye-popping gains. 2021 has been a year of consolidation for those themes while their "disrupted" counterpart industries (fossil fuel energy, traditional finance, and OEM auto-manufacturers) have outperformed. We highlight these three relationships and the rise of automation as a sneak preview of what we're watching for 2022.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Focus on Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value
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FCV/EV has been the top-performing factor over time. Select companies based on cash position, long-term eps growth/eps stability, price momentum, earnings revisions, and free cash flow/enterprise value. Favored stocks include: Apple, UnitedHealth, Oracle, Thermo Fisher, Cisco, Lowe's, Charles Schwab, Applied Materials, Target, S&P Global.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly
What about the bullwhip?
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A risk to the outlook associated with the supply chain problems that many are overlooking is the bullwhip effect. So far, the risk remains subdued as new orders continue to outpace inventories. But if aggregate demand slows markedly or if consumers switch preferences, businesses may be left with more than they need.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Irrational Exuberance?
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Most valuation indicators suggest irrational exuberance despite the surge in earnings. This is confirmed by record low cash at brokers relative to margin debt. Fund flows remain "overbought." But foreigners dump stocks, and the Michigan sentiment survey on the economy is very pessimistic.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Pillar of bull market under attack
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Short-term breadth measures have weakened quickly. Long-term breadth remains positive. Worsening technicals need to be monitored in the face of less favorable inflation, Fed, and earnings backdrops.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Getting more aligned with the sector model
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Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and Materials to marketweight, downgrading Utilities and Real Estate to marketweight. The moves reflect the rising U.S. COVID case count and get us more in line with the sector model. The outlook for Financials has worsened, but we give the sector the benefit of the doubt for now.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Will the pandemic recharge productivity growth?
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Strong high-tech capex growth and increased digitization across industries should spur faster productivity and potential output growth in the intermediate term. Productivity is closely related to profits and margins and is currently growing across most industries. ULC growth is mixed by industry, but expected to moderate, leaving room for the Fed to gradually normalize policy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Markit Flash Composite PMI ticks down
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Services PMI off slightly in November. But Manufacturing PMI picks up. Inflation pressures persist. Richmond Fed activity near steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Which European sectors look best?
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Despite weakening economic indicators, our Europe equity/bond composite still favors a broad tactical tilt to cyclical sectors. The recent pull back in yields has benefitted European cyclical growth over cyclical value sectors. Within European defensive sectors we favor Consumer Staples and Health Care to Communication Services and Utilities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
How will we know when the economy has hit full employment?
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Maximum employment is squishy and subjective. The pool of available labor is objective and should shrink to around 11 million people based on the past two cycles. That could occur in Q2 or Q3 of 2022, setting up a summer rate hike. Our Fed Rate Hike Watch Report can help monitor broad-based and inclusive employment.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Existing home sales up
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Existing home sales post an eight-month high. Tight inventories continue to feed into high home price growth. CFNAI shows stronger economic growth in early Q4. CRE sentiment cools slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Fab Five and Big Mo Tape composites are bullish, but watching some possible concerns
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The Fab Five Tape and Big Mo Tape remain bullish. The NYSE Daily A/D Line barely confirmed the new highs in the market in November, but daily new highs have not - weekly highs and lows still show a lot of new lows, which is a concern. We got an intermediate-term breadth "overbought" sell signal.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Did COVID really change our demographic destiny?
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Early data is confirming signs of the COVID pandemic's negative effect on labor force participation, life expectancy, birth rates, and migration. While there is still room for a cyclical recovery in some of these trends, the pandemic will likely inflict long-term damage. Holding all else constant, this will have negative implications on potential real GDP growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Long Duration Blah Blah Blah
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We continue to hear the argument that Big Tech is in trouble in an inflationary environment because it is a long-duration asset. Recent performance shows otherwise.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Growth, inflation, and the value of education update
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A strong rise in the average PMI suggests growth is picking up in Q4, following sluggish growth in Q3. Inflation is running very hot, but with weekly earnings less than CPI inflation, where is the demand for real growth going to come from going forward? Some people question the value of college education, but nearly 74% of all financial assets are owned by college grads, with progressively less wealth going to those with lower levels of education.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Global market risks in '22, Part I
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Watching trailing earnings relative to forward earnings growth, beat rate momentum, revisions, and earnings yields. Also watching spreads between earnings yields and bond yields, and correlations between yields and equities. Moving to neutral on rising U.S. dollar but not expecting a break of 2020 high.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Leading indicators strengthen in early Q4
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LEI surprises on the upside in October. Points to above-trend growth in the near-term. Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. New orders jump, but so do backlogs and price pressures. Jobless claims continue to grind lower. Consumer comfort up. E-commerce sales pull back, but market share holds well above pre-pandemic level.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
How the proposed minimum and buyback taxes could impact sectors
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The 15% minimum tax would meaningfully raise the effective tax rates for all sectors. The overall impact of the 1% buyback tax would be more modest. Technology could be among the hardest hit by both taxes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Real rate implications for equities
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Negative real yields have supported equity valuations, particularly for growth stocks. Falling real yields are associated with equity outperformance, whereas rising real yields have seen underperformance. Tech stocks have closely mimicked trends in real yields since 2019.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
5 things to know about Bitcoin right now
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The longer Bitcoin goes without breaking back above its April 15 price level, the more we worry about a failed breakout. We are also worried that Bitcoin is entering a seasonally weak "pre-halving" period. Still, the bull case for continued adoption of Bitcoin as an asset in a diversified portfolio remains intact.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Housing starts slip, but permits rebound
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Housing starts fall to a six-month low. But stronger permits and builder confidence suggest a rebound in the near-term. Architecture billings moderate. Pace still positive for nonresidential construction spending growth in 1H 2022. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Pick companies with greater operating cash flow yields
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The operating cash flow yield factor strategy has produced strong returns over time and currently has a favorable composite score. Choose stocks based on price momentum, lower accruals ratio, gross profit/assets, and operating cash flow yield. Selected stocks include: Hapag-Lloyd, Compagnie de Saint Gobain, Nokia, Merck Kgaa, AP Moller-Maersk, Exor, Norsk Hydro, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Next, Evraz.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly
Hedge fund sentiment for stocks versus bonds, dollar versus gold sentiment, and expected earnings growth
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Hedge fund sentiment turns negative for stocks and favorable for bonds. The U.S. dollar is on an intermediate-term sentiment sell signal, while gold is on a buy signal. Expected earnings growth is very high, but rolling over - could be a problem.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
What equity investors need to know about inflation
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Even transitory inflation has been a headwind for stocks since 1980. Watch corporate profits, interest rates, and consumer sentiment. None of the three are bearish for stocks currently.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Consumer spending undeterred by higher prices
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Broad-based jump in retail sales in October, despite higher inflation. Industrial production rebounds, led by vehicles and energy output. Import price inflation accelerates, while I/S ratio holds near record low, as supply chain issues persist. Builder confidence hits a ten-month high, a positive sign for housing starts in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
The case for European small-caps
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The secular case for overweighting European small-cap stocks is intact, earnings-momentum is strong, and valuations are reasonable. Concern over a potential peak in economic growth is offset by a strong equity market - bullish for small-cap stocks. Our analysis suggests overweighting small-cap stocks at the end of November, especially those with high momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Revisiting the biggest puzzle in fixed income
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Real yields remain at or near record lows. Demand for inflation protection, financial repression, and foreign demand help explain this anomaly. Real yields matter for determining valuations in other asset classes.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Government Influence
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Dividends and Value hit all-time highs (DVY, VLUE, EEMS). Outflows from semis and regional banks. Inflows to infrastructure, miners, and marijuana (PAVE, XME, MSOS). Mortgage back securities breakdown, positive flows to junk and long-term Treasurys (MBB, HYG, TLT).

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly
Empire factory activity picks up
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Faster manufacturing growth in the Empire region. But outlook cools down. Cass freight expenditures far outpace volume, reflecting continued supply chain problems.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Trend signals
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Cyclical trend buy signals are in effect including one from an "oversold" condition. The Short-term Momentum Guide is also on a buy signal. But DAVIS265 suggests the market is getting overbought on a short-term basis, after a long period of excessive pessimism.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumer sentiment sinks on inflation fears
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Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since 2011, as inflation expectations move up. Job openings continue to exceed the number of unemployed. Quit rate hits a new record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Hydrogenerating Returns
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We are skeptical of Hydrogen's viability as an energy source because it is hard to transport/store and it takes energy to separate it from other elements. So far in Q4, clean energy investors do not share our caution. The Defiance Next Gen H2 (HDRO) ETF is up 29% behind a 70% surge in hydrogen fuel cell maker Plug Power (PLUG).

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Housing imbalances, rents, and lumber
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The U.S. is facing a shortage of 1.9 million housing units in 2021, up from our prior estimate of 1.4 million. Unsatisfied demand should keep upward pressure on house prices and rents. More persistent inflation could put upward pressure on inflation expectations resulting in an earlier than expected rate hike.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Where I could be wrong - part 3
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I thought that vehicle and home sales might be peaking, but there are offsets like supply problems and very low inventories. I also believed the economy would slow sharply from the Q2 yearly rate, but the popularity of the bi-partisan infrastructure bill and the Fed's reluctance to raise rates may mean more capital spending and employment growth. I have been in the inflation camp, but I thought it would give way longer term.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Take a chance on me
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The MSCI Sweden Index has gone 414 days without a 10% correction, its fourth longest streak. The iShares MSCI Sweden ETF has moved up 11 spots in the last four weeks in our ETF Global Market Momentum ranks, the most of any fund. After declining this summer, intermediate-term breadth is again expanding, and valuation (earnings yield) is inline with its historical average.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Real rates more negative - more positive for gold
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Rising inflation has sent real yields to more negative levels, supporting gold. Gold Watch Report describes most gold indicators as bullish. Influences include U.S. dollar outlook, U.S. deficits, nominal yields, expected real yields, commodity breadth and relative sentiment.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Who is leading the covid economic recovery?
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We compare the COVID recovery among major countries, assessing various metrics of the economy, including real GDP and the labor market. Most major countries haven't yet recuperated their COVID economic losses. The few economies that have seen real GDP rise above pre-COVID levels, such as China and the U.S., are experiencing lop-sided recoveries.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Consumer comfort improves
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Consumer comfort up for the second consecutive week. Bodes well for holiday spending. Housing affordability has declined. Budget deficit narrows post-pandemic.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Does the Fed taper matter?
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A flood of liquidity has helped support asset prices. Turning off the liquidity spigot could provide a headwind to risk assets. But the headwind might be mild, as Treasury issuance will also be curtailed. Net Treasury issuance is expected to decline to around $1.1 trillion each of the next two years.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Infrastructure bill passes, construction responds
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As investors anticipated the imminent passage of the U.S. infrastructure bill, construction-related companies and industries have rallied, and PAVE broke to a new high. PAVE has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 600 basis points since September 21, but we still need to see a relative strength breakout from this recommended ETF.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
CPI inflation running red hot
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Highest annual inflation since 1990. Broad-based increase in consumer prices. OECD U.S. CLI points to slowing growth momentum. Wholesale I/S ratio stuck at a low level, as shortages persist. But jobless claims continue to decline. Mortgage applications up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Where I could be wrong - part two
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I have believed that stocks were overvalued, but some measures still look cheap versus bonds. I have thought that crowd psychology is excessively optimistic on stocks, but some sentiment indicators from consumer surveys show fairly excessive pessimism. I have thought that sidelined cash was low, but that is not true on an absolute basis. Public fund flows also show excessive optimism, but that has only been true for the last year.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
A compelling case for small-caps
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Upgrading small-caps from neutral to overweight on a tactical basis. Technical breakouts, seasonality, relative valuations, tax proposals, and real rates favor small-caps. Overarching economic, stock market, and Fed cycles suggest small-cap strength could subside before Q2 2022.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Implications of rising market and sector concentration
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The five largest S&P 500 stocks saw their weight in the index jump from 16.3% to 22.0% in 2020 and still comprise over one-fifth of the index's market cap. The general trend of falling sector concentration that began in the early 2000s has started to reverse for many sectors. The rise of cyclical Growth sectors in the S&P 500 has corresponded with a rise in the sectors' share of R&D and capex spending.

Ned Davis Research | Special Report | Mixed
Where the U.S. economy stands in Q3 2021
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We analyze 12 sub-cycles and the overall cycle. Economic growth moderated in Q3 amid a surge in the Delta variant, waning fiscal stimulus, and supply chain issues. Nevertheless, the labor market continued to tighten.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Economics Cycle Snapshot | Quarterly
Producer prices remain hot
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PPI inflation held at a record-matching level in October. Small business optimism fell to its lowest level since March.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Reasons to stay overweight equities
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Eurozone economic outlook is broadly positive, and fears of stagflation look to have receded. But peak in PMI and negative economic surprises suggest much good news has been priced into equities. Technical indicators are broadly bullish supporting an overweight position in European equities relative to bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Have inflation expectations peaked?
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Market-based inflation measures appear to have peaked, at least in the short-term. Breaks of uptrend lines are still needed. Shipping indexes and comments are encouraging. Survey-based measures haven't yet confirmed.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Employment trends strengthen
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ETI rebound suggests strong payrolls growth in the next six months.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Global growth accelerates, setting stage for yearend recovery
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Global growth accelerated for a second month, according to the PMIs, setting the stage for a yearend equity rally. Growth broadened among countries and sectors as the Delta impact waned. But supply chain issues, shortages, and higher prices continue to provide risks to the outlook. U.S. and Japanese growth accelerated, Europe growth slowed, China was steady, while other EMs were mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Where I could be wrong - part one
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The trend plus the Fed remain bullish. The trend evidence started turning bullish on March 26, 2020 with a price thrust buy signal. The Fed is unlikely to be unfriendly, unless non-farm unit labor costs force them to tighten. But where I could be wrong is that the tape has only mixed breadth and is extended.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Job gains accelerate
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Broad-based increase in private payrolls, spurred by a subsiding Delta wave and expired jobless benefits. Labor force participation still disappointingly low, particularly among older workers. Labor market on track to reach full employment in 2H 2022, which could set up a Fed rate hike next summer.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Small-cap breakout
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On Tuesday, the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) finally broke out of its 10-month trading range on improving, intermediate-term breadth (chart). PBE, ACES, GNOM, PHO, MOON and PAVE (overweight) all share more than 50% of their constituents with IWM, also have improving breadth, and should benefit from an expanding, small-cap rally.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Economy still expanding but...
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The Leading/Coincident Indicator is still on an April 2020 buy signal. Employment and capex are still very strong. But expectations of business conditions continue to suggest the economy will slow. And the trade deficit and government policy could not be much worse.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Emerging currency influences
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Despite rate hikes by emerging market central banks, most real rates still negative and most currencies weakening. Russia's currency trending higher and supporting market, contrasting Brazil and Turkey. China's currency influence an exception, as depreciation would be positive for market. U.S. real yield lowest, with differentials a negative influence on dollar.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Productivity declines, led by slower output growth
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The slide in productivity growth was led by the services sector, largely due to the Delta impact. Layoffs continue to trend lower. Consumer comfort rebounds. Trade deficit widens to a new record, reflecting strong domestic demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Taper begins, Fed to remain patient
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Fed to taper $15 billion per month, starting mid-month. Fed starting to turn off the liquidity spigot, creating potential headwinds to capital markets. The Fed's message should not lead to a large change in market expectations of two rate hikes next year and a flatter yield curve.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Monthly sector update - November 2021
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All sectors moved higher in October, with a mix of cyclical Growth and cyclical Value leadership. Tesla's 43.7% surge propelled Consumer Discretionary to the top of the sector rankings in October. A year-end rally could support reopening 2.0.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
ISM Services PMI hits a new record high
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Services activity strengthens as Delta dies down. But firms continue to struggle with shortages. Prices surge. ADP payrolls growth accelerates after a summer lull. Light vehicle sales rebound, but level still near lowest since 2011. Factory orders up slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Thematic update November 2021
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Thematic breadth improved in October as 55% of the ETF themes we monitor outperformed the MSCI ACWI. We added a long China internet (KWEB) trade in the middle of the month. Green wave themes continue to attract assets and exhibit strong performance.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Focus | Monthly
Tax proposals reverse about half of Trump cuts
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The 15% minimum tax and 1% repurchase tax could boost the S&P 500 effective tax rate from 17.8% to 20.9%. CY22 S&P 500 EPS growth estimates would fall from 8.7% to 5.7% ceteris paribus. Small-caps would be impacted much less by proposals.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
October sentiment/valuation update
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Price/sales and market value/gross domestic income are near record high levels. Price/earnings ratios continue to be stretched on the upside. A $31 trillion asset allocation survey shows stocks with a near record-high weight, bonds near their 41-year norm, and cash is greatly underweight. Margin debt, advisory service sentiment, and consumer confidence show high risks.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
G7 and BRIC outlook: Recoveries intact, but inflation surging
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Economic conditions remain positive in world's largest economies and COVID risks have abated among most of them, for now. All countries are seeing rising inflation, bolstered by supply-chain problems and labor and raw material shortages. The risk is that this translates into faster-than-anticipated central bank tightening

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
What consumer confidence says about the economic outlook
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Large declines in consumer confidence temper growth in the near-term, but do not always lead to recession. Employment and wage gains, excess savings, asset valuations, and favorable credit conditions should continue to support spending growth. The current weight of the evidence is for continued expansion into 2022.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Housing shortage persists
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Homeownership rate continues to normalize. Housing shortage persists, driving up home prices.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Fed policy in three simple charts
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The Fed will start to taper this month at a pace of $15 billion per month. The trimmed-mean PCE is showing a disturbing trend in underlying inflation, although inflation expectations remain well anchored. Unless compensation trends subside, a rate hike next summer sounds appropriate.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Manufacturing activity moderates
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Both ISM and Markit Manufacturing PMIs decline in October. But levels still indicate robust growth. Supply chains and capacity constraints remain an issue. Price pressures rise. Construction spending disappoints.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
ETF Model stock allocation declines again, but still above benchmark
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Top-level model fell to 72% stock allocation. Highest allocations are with U.S. Large Caps, U.S. Value, and U.S. Growth. The global shipping rates indicator now favors bonds over stocks.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly
Big Mo, Little Mo, leading indicators, and supply and demand
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Big Mo Tape continues to be mildly bullish. We are introducing "Little Mo" for short-term momentum. It is on an October 5 buy signal, and has long been included in our Leading Indicator Model. NDR Volume Demand continues to dominate supply.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Lower income and higher inflation weigh on spending
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Spending growth moderates, as income declines more than expected. Inflation pressures mount. Consumer sentiment hovers near lowest level since 2011. One-year inflation expectations up. Labor shortages drive up compensation costs. Regional factory activity remains broadly positive, despite supply chain issues.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Renewed interest in renewables
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Clean energy bellwether Enphase Energy (ENPH) shot up 24% to an all-time closing high Wednesday on better than expected earnings. This pushed ICLN out of its six month trading range. We expect to use future volatility opportunistically for an entry closer to support (prior resistance at $24.00) but admit waiting also poses the risk of buying into strength later at higher prices.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
More macro stuff out of whack
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Retail sales-to-inventories are through the roof. The "great resignation" quits rate is at record highs. Records on small business job openings, compensation, and pricing plans, yet the economic outlook continues to deteriorate. The top 10% get way richer - average Joe not doing so great.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Here are the BTC ETFs
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Two U.S. listed ETFs with Bitcoin exposure via futures are now trading. Futures strategies are not direct investments in Bitcoin and, despite drawbacks, offer convenient exposure for those with constraints prohibiting direct ownership. Given pent up demand for a Bitcoin ETF, capacity of the funds may become a constraint and the fund's influence in the future's market will need monitoring.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Reflation confirmation from global sectors
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Outperformance from cyclical sectors and risk-on proxies, underperformance from defensive sectors and risk-off proxies. Consistent with betas and correlations, with heavy weight of leaders supporting global rally. Financials most supported by valuations, rising bond yields and steepening yield curve. Tech relatively expensive and inversely correlated with yields, but ROE highest.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Real GDP growth slows amid Delta and supply chain issues
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Real GDP posts smallest gain in five quarters. Delta spread curbs spending growth, while supply chains hit trade flows. Jobless claims decline to new pandemic lows. But consumer comfort still slides. A decline in contract signings suggests weaker existing home sales ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Year-end rallies and sector leadership
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Bullish year-end seasonality has supported cyclical over defensive leadership. Cyclical Value sectors have performed best during year-end rallies. Technicals and sector model favor cyclical sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
TIPS getting rich again
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With new highs in breakeven rates, TIPS have become relatively overvalued. Nevertheless, TIPS continue to outperform the broader bond market. Although the days of TIPS outperformance may be ending, we are maintaining our overweight recommendation for now.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Ten Most Interesting Thematic ETF Charts - October 2021
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As the S&P 500 makes a new record high, several thematic ETFs are breaking out of trading ranges. ETFs breaking out of 3-6 months trading ranges include LIT, MOO, QCLN, and SKYY. We highlight some laggards as well like EDOC, GDX, and ONLN, though we have high holiday hopes for online retailers.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Durable goods orders decline, led by transportation
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Capex orders advance. Supply chain issues boost unfilled order growth. Goods trade deficit widens to a new record and weighs on Q3 GDP projected growth. State conditions indicate broad-based expansion and minimal odds of recession.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Favor companies with higher, consistent eps growth
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The long-term eps growth/stability factor has been a top-performing strategy. Select companies based on cash position, long-term eps growth/eps stability, price momentum, earnings revisions, and free cash flow/enterprise value. Favored stocks include: UnitedHealth, Cisco, Accenture, Charles Schwab, Applied Materials, S&P Global, Lam Research, Emerson Electric.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly
DAVIS265 drill down
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DAVIS265 hit extreme pessimism at just 16.7% bulls on 9/22/2021. But it also hit lows of 26.7% bulls on 8/19 and just 18.9% bulls on 10/6. This was unusual. This led to a lot of client questions, so today I will feature a number of DAVIS265 charts that are available daily on our website for clients to decide what to do about shifts and what has caused them.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumer confidence up in October
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Consumer confidence surprises on the upside, which is positive for spending growth. Inflation expectations also jump. New home sales and prices rise. But existing home price growth has eased. Richmond Fed regional activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Worst over for seasonal weakness
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When interpreting cycle composites, trend is more important than level. The weak year-end rally in the NDR S&P 500 cycle composite is driven by the 10-year cycle, which may be less relevant in 2021. NDR models remain bullish on U.S. equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Two supply chain issues you may have overlooked
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A potential slowdown or strike by West Coast dockworkers in 2022 could further snarl supply chains. The return of La Nina could drive food and energy prices higher. Supply chain bottlenecks could take several months to several quarters to resolve themselves.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Economic growth slowed in September
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CFNAI falls to lowest level in seven months. But the breadth of the expansion suggests a low risk of recession. Texas factory activity and outlook improve modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Updating some of our major models on inflation, commodities, stocks, and bonds
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The NDR Inflation Timing Model is off its strongest readings, but remains on a November 2020 buy signal. The NDR Commodity Model is also on a November 2020 buy signal. Big Mo Tape and the Fab Five are on buy signals, even though both are rated neutral now. The Bond Benchmark Model is on the defensive.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Markit flash PMIs show services summer lull is over
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Services PMI rebounds to a three-month high, as the Delta wave subsides. But the Manufacturing PMI falls to a seven-month low, on supply chain issues. Price pressures increase across the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Banking on Banks
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NDR's Sector Strategist Rob Anderson upgraded Financials mid-October and the price action in the KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) is supportive. KBWB recently broke above its June 1 high to make a new all-time high.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Inflation looks quite sticky, but will likely ease later
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The Inflation Timing Model still shows fairly high inflation pressures - two measures from the ISM confirm. Wage pressures are still growing. But low levels of disposable personal income suggest inflation will ease later.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Downgrading global growth
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Downgrading our global real GDP growth estimate for 2021 to 5.6% from 6.1%. COVID-19 continues to be the biggest danger to the outlook, along with rising inflation risks, heightened by supply chain disruptions, which may prompt a quicker paring back of global monetary support. Weaker growth in the U.S. and China is partly offset by a stronger recovery in Europe.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Another chance for EM
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Upgrading Emerging Markets and downgrading Europe ex. U.K. Both now marketweight. Adding 6% to EM, cutting 3% from both U.S. and Europe ex. U.K. Improved EM performance in developing year-end rally, standing to benefit from valuations. Watching regional model, scorecard, relative strength, breadth, China, bond yields and currencies.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Existing home sales rebound
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Existing home sales rise to highest level since January, as buyers pre-empt a potential rise in mortgage rates. Leading indicators suggest continued but slower growth ahead. Philly Fed factory activity moderates. Consumer comfort continues to crater, even though jobless claims hit a new pandemic low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
What to expect from European Industrials
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Technical support and oversold indicators suggest that recent underperformance of the European Industrials sector may have run its course. However, trend and breadth indicators are bearish. And while there are some signs of improving fundamentals and increasing risk appetite, most external indicators suggest caution.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Getting the message?
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Net inflows to bond mutual funds and ETFs have slowed steadily this year, as bonds have become a less effective equity hedge and don't yield very much. Correlations between bonds and stocks have turned positive. For now, other buyers are taking up the slack, but that will be changing soon.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Is the bottom in for Industrials?
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Falling COVID cases, rising interest rates and commodity prices, and a steepening yield curve have supported the rotation back to cyclical Value sectors. Industrials has performed better, but underlying industry trends and breadth look less bullish. Uncertainty around the passage of an infrastructure bill and negative capex trends are additional concerns for the sector.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Clean energy and $80 oil
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Renewable energy's high, positive correlation with Big Energy broke down in 2017. If energy prices remain high, a return to that relationship would be bullish for renewable sources of energy.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Architecture billings increase
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ABI trend points to continued recovery in nonresidential construction spending into 2022. Rising mortgage rates curb demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Price momentum among top-performing factors
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Price momentum has been one of the top-performing factors over time and during recent few weeks. Choose stocks based on price momentum, lower accruals ratio, gross profit/assets, operating cash flow yield, and net payout yield. Selected stocks include: Deutsche Post, Compagnie de Saint Gobain, CRH, Hapag-Lloyd, Merck Kgaa, Michelin, Telefonica, Norsk Hydro, Relx, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Ashtead Group, Imperial Brands, Next.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly
CEO confidence, price/five-year earnings results, and dividend yields versus trendline
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CEO Confidence falls, but it is still in an excessive optimism zone. Using price/five-year earnings, hypothetical results indicate below average returns historically. Dividend yields are low, even using a questionable downward biased linear regression trendline.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Q3 earnings: watch margins and complacency
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Earnings growth should remain strong in Q3. Watch for signs that supply chains are pressuring margins. The high bar set in Q2 could be setting up a shift in sentiment toward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Supply chains through the inventory lens
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Business inventories relative to sales are near record lows, derailed by supply chain problems. The situation is the worst for retailers. A resumption of the inventory cycle means a potential boost to growth in 2022. Holding more inventories to hedge against future supply shocks may also keep inflation pressures elevated for longer.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Housing starts and permits decline
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Both housing starts and permits surprise on the downside, likely due to material and labor shortages. But rising builder optimism points to improvement in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Curve confusion
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We remain neutral on the yield curve amid diverging trends within the curve. Supply chain disruptions are boosting near-term inflation expectations. The market is increasingly betting that the Fed will take action by raising rates to cool these inflationary pressures.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Let's try reflation again
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Financials, energy and infrastructure breakout (IXG, IGF, IXC). Positive aggregate flows to Value, Financials, Energy and Tech. Positive flows to non gold miners, solar and uranium also (PICK, TAN, URA).

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly
Industrial production weakened by supply chain issues
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Industrial production declines due to component shortages and effects of Hurricane Ida. Builder confidence jumps, suggesting a pickup in housing starts in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Breadth thrust update, churning, trend channel, new lows, and chart talk
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October 2020 breadth thrust buy signal closes out successfully - only hypothetical negative since 1947 was in 1987, which looks a little like now. The market has been churning - not a great sign. We hit the top of a trend channel, with bad breadth from new lows. I show some chart points to watch.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumers keep on spending, despite higher prices
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Retail sales surprise on the upside. But falling sentiment creates a downside risk for spending growth this holiday season. Import prices rise, adding to expectations for elevated inflation into yearend. Empire manufacturing activity moderates, but outlook strengthens. Business inventories increase, but are still out of line with sales.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Stuck in neutral
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Nearing $70 million, 21-day outflows from Global X's EV ETF (DRIV) may be an early sign of eroding investor enthusiasm. Additionally, a series of lower highs since early August coupled with Congressional indecision has us concerned about downside risk.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Still growing, still slowing
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The Leading/Coincident Index is still rising - expansion continues. But consumer expectations of business conditions argues that growth should slow to just 3.1%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment agrees, projecting just 2.8% growth, down from 12.2% in the latest yearly rate. Credit impulses in the U.S. and China also suggest slowing growth.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Russia, Russia, Russia
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Rallies in natural gas and crude have benefitted commodity exporters like the Russian Federation. The MSCI Russia Index is inexpensive and has good momentum - both should help sustain the current rally. The VanEck Russia ETF (RSX) is nearing an overbought extreme. Combined with rising COVID cases has us cautious in the near term.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Producers continue to face rising costs
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Producer prices still rising at an above-average pace. But pipeline inflation pressures appear to be peaking. Supply chain issues and labor shortages drag down CFO optimism. Initial jobless claims fall below 300K, but consumer comfort continues to slide.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Base building - new highs ahead?
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Indices basing out ahead of likely rally. Watch for secondary highs. Also watching for confirmation from thrust indicators and longer-term breadth indicators. Continuing decline in new COVID cases would have positive implications for equities. RO/RO, ACWI SHUT and cyclical/defensive ratio reflect upturn in economic confidence.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Positioning for reopening 2.0
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Upgrading Energy and Financials to overweight. Downgrading Health Care to underweight. Falling COVID cases, rising rates and commodity prices, and a steepening yield curve have supported a rotation back to cyclical Value sectors. The position changes get us more in line with the sector model.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Is this stagflation?
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Elevated inflation and slowing growth "feels" stagflationary. Although we have concerns about the transitory nature of inflation, inflation expectations remain well anchored. Growth is too strong to be considered stagflationary.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Your supply chain questions answered
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Global supply chain issues are primarily due to an enormous imbalance in supply and demand, instigated by the pandemic. The supply chain problem is widespread globally, but more prevalent among developed economies. The supply chain issues are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, but there are signs of a light at the end of the tunnel.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Consumer price pressures persist
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Shelter and food account for more than half of the monthly increase in inflation. But price increases broaden across more CPI categories. Supply chain issues and rising shipping costs continue to pressure inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Trade Initiation: Long China Internet
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Initiating new trade to go long CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) with a $63 price target and a $43 stop loss, representing an attractive 2/1 (26%/-13%) reward/risk profile from current levels.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Investment | N/A
Sentiment on crude oil and stocks
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Short-term sentiment on crude is very optimistic, suggesting a pullback, but long-term trend evidence is still oversold and the rig count is low - both bullish. Short-term stock sentiment indicates we are oversold. But intermediate-term sentiment on stocks is just coming down from a long period of being overbought, and price/sales and market value to GDI are both sky high.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
The reopening 2.0 trade
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Leadership is similar to late-2020/early-2021, with Value and small-caps outperforming. The reopening 2.0 trade will likely be shorter and not as strong as the 1.0 version. We are waiting for model alignment and seasonality before potentially changing our intermediate-term recommendations.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Broad evidence of tightening labor markets
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JOLTS show quit rate hits a new record, despite fewer job openings. Labor and inventory shortages continue to plague small businesses. OECD U.S. CLI shows growth stalled in Q3.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Time to be cautious?
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Faltering trend, momentum and breadth indicators, give some cause for concern. But our analysis suggests this is likely a period of consolidation and equities will likely end the year higher. Sentiment has also become excessively pessimistic, and recent outperformance of riskier industries and stocks suggests potential for a rebound in equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Downgrading U.K. to underweight
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Slashing U.K. bond exposure by 5% to zero. Putting 3% in Japan and 2% in Europe. First zero U.K. allocation since we began making recommendations. Technical and fundamental factors weighing on the U.K. market.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Employment trends soften
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First decline in the ETI in seven months, pointing to slower payrolls growth in the near-term. It also suggests slower real GDP growth into yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Introducing new relative strength breadth charts
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Market moves are most healthy (bullish) when they are broad based (strong breadth). We show two NDR charts on this and our results. We show moving average breadth strength from 5 to 252 days for 22 market indexes. I am concentrating on 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Taper time?
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Another disappointing employment report with payrolls expanding by the smallest amount of the year. But wage growth accelerated, fanning inflation fears amid tight labor markets. Unemployment rate plunges below 5%, although participation rate retreats. There seems to be enough cumulative progress in labor markets to allow the Fed to announce a tapering of asset purchases at its next FOMC meeting.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
No U.S. ban on Bitcoin
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Bitcoin investors seem emboldened by Fed Chair Powell noting he has "no intention" of banning crypto and SEC Chair Gensler replying the same when asked about a ban, noting "No, that would be up to Congress". Given Bitcoin is only about 14% away from its all-time high of $63.4k and that it has a 20% correction every 40 days (on average), we will likely wait for a pullback or a break to new highs before upgrading.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
I know the Fed is pumping, but economic liquidity deteriorates
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Money supply growth is positive, but slowing, despite Fed ease. And the Fed says they will likely taper. Economic liquidity is already negative, by taking out commodity PPI inflation and industrial production from M2. In any case, stocks have run ahead of money growth. Even with the fiscal deficits that have been added, stimulus is falling.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A

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