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Recent Publications

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ISM Services PMI shows activity is weakening
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Broad-based decline in ISM services activity. But S&P Global PMI shows more strength. Conflicting message adds to the uncertainty about the near-term growth outlook. Employment trends point to continued, albeit softer, job growth in 2H 2023. Factory orders rise less than expected.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Cycle Composite supports breakout
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The NDR S&P 500 Cycle Composite suggests an uptrend into mid-July. The bullish message for the Cycle Composite in the first half is driven by pre-election year stimulus, which has been due to COLA adjustments in 2023. Improved market breadth would support the Cycle Composite's message.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Labor markets - what to believe?
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Payroll expansion just doesn't stop. But the unemployment rate jumped by the most since 2010 (excluding the pandemic). Seeing a better balance in the labor markets, as wage growth cools and more people want jobs. Vehicles sales backtrack in May, but longer-term upward trend still intact.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Tech Titans leading the AI surge
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We are overweight the Global X AI ETF (AIQ) which has returned 9.3% since our March 30 upgrade, and Titans have not disappointed. By our estimate, Titans (+19.7%) drove 68% of that return.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
The alternative economic outcome
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Normally you need a decline in consumption to generate a recession. It is rare for consumption to decline outside of a recession. PCE declines are usually short-lived. It's even rarer for services consumption to contract. Declines in PCE are driven by the more cyclical goods components rather than the services component. We will need to see significant job losses or some galvanizing event to derail the American consumer.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
A pivot in the Pacific
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Japanese market has gained relative strength while Chinese market has lost it. Influences include geopolitics and relative economic outlooks. China oversold with relatively attractive valuations, but breadth weak and Tech stocks a negative influence. Watch ACWI Scorecard in assessing sustainability of current relative strength trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
ADP payrolls jump, but industry mix troubling
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ADP payrolls rose more than expected in May. But gains were concentrated in only a few industries. Jobless claims were little changed. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction territory, led by slumping new orders. But construction spending jumped in April. Q1 productivity revised slightly up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Can Tech continue to propel the S&P 500?
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Technology outperformance in 2023 has pushed its weight in the S&P 500 to its highest level since September 2000. Sector technicals have improved, but risks, including valuations and sentiment, have risen. Sector leadership continues to be narrow and will need to broaden if the rally is going to continue deep into the 2H.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
What we learned from the FDIC today
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Smaller banks have a profitability issue that won't go away quickly. Lower bond yields will help the valuations of securities on bank balance sheets. Pressure on DIF from failures and increase in insured deposits. An insurance limit increase to $350,000 would make it equivalent to the $250,000 limit in 2008 in real terms.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Lessons from previous narrow markets
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The percent of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 is at a record low. Following periods of narrow leadership, S&P 500 returns have been below average. Small-caps and Value have outperformed large-caps and Growth after narrow leadership.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
JOLTS show unwavering labor market strength
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Job openings rebound in April. Tight labor market keeps wage pressures elevated. Regional factory activity contracts. Mortgage applications continue to decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Trade Closeout: Long U.S. Infrastructure
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The Global X US Infrastructure ETF (PAVE) has a 72% weight in Industrials. Since the end of February, Industrials has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 8% and PAVE has underperformed by over 10%. We remove our PAVE overweight with a 9.5% gain relative to SPY (as 5/30/2023) but could return to overweight in an environment more friendly to late-cycle sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Investment | N/A
Funding pressures clash with housing shortage
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We review the challenges facing the housing market and the divergences within the market. We update our housing shortage table for 2023. Opportunities for single-family developers with capital and/or resources. Apartment investors should wait for the cycle to play itself out.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Where will money market fund assets flow next?
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Inflows into money market mutual funds over the past 13 weeks are the highest since July 2020. Stocks have rallied sharply when money market funds inflows have been high. Money market assets are low relative to stock market value, and some funds may not be earmarked for stocks.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
G7 and BIC outlook: No recession for now
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The outlooks for China, Europe, Japan, and India remain positive, while the U.S. continues to grow moderately. But most economies see downside risks as the year progresses with rising recession risk. Inflation appears to be peaking in most economies, but strong core pressures argue against central bank cuts in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Consumer confidence off slightly
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Consumer confidence continues to retreat in May, but level not yet consistent with recession. Existing home prices rise, amid persistent tight inventory. Texas manufacturing falls into deeper contraction, similar to activity in most other regions.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
ETF Model raising cash
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Equity allocation declined to near benchmark. Cash has greater than 30% allocation. U.S. Large Caps, International Developed, U.S. Growth, and Cash have the largest allocations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly
European earnings update
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Strong first quarter earnings and brokers upgrading earnings expectations provide fundamental support for European equities. But the lacklustre reaction by investors to earnings announcements suggests scepticism as to the longer-term outlook for earnings. History suggests that a moderate fall in earnings need not derail European equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Tech leading or misleading?
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Tech outperformance is a risk-on indication but strength has increased concentration. Breadth will indicate if the sector has been leading a broadening bull or has left the market vulnerable. Weakness followed the concentration of early 2000 and late 2021, while strength followed in 2020.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
CRE remains under pressure
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Smaller banks are loaded with CRE loans. To slow loan growth in this category, they are tightening standards and terms. We continue to see stress in the lower quality credits of the CMBS market. We are staying up-in-quality, and remaining patient.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Consumer spending jumps, driving up PCE inflation
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Consumer spending up by the most since January. PCE inflation re-accelerates, implying higher for longer fed funds rate. But consumer sentiment down in May to a six-month low level. Durable goods orders rise for a second month in April. Wider goods trade deficits suggests a drag on Q2 real GDP growth from net exports.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Valuation doesn't matter until it matters
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With Nvidia's (NVDA) stock surging 24.3% yesterday and its price/sales ratio spiking well above 20 times, cries of "bubble" are already growing loudly.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Economic outlook vs. reality
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Plenty of indicators point to a dim economic outlook in the coming quarters. But current activity is still positive, as the economy continues to avert recession. Composite PMI consistent with stock market gains so far this year. Tight labor market and excess savings support consumer spending and the economy. But watch for emerging stress.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Now overweight Japan, neutral on gold and dollar
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Upgrading Japan from marketweight to overweight, downgrading gold from bullish to neutral, upgrading U.S. dollar from bearish to neutral. Japan upgrade is a response to trend and model improvement. Yen weakness positive for equities. Bullish short-term dollar signal within long-term downtrend, bearish short-term gold signal within long-term uptrend.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Watching broker dealer short interest
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Short interest for the iShares U.S. Broker Dealers ETF (IAI) has spiked, rising to near a decade high. As the regional banking crisis abates, IAI's Sentiment Rating has moved to neutral from overly pessimistic. However, breadth and relative trends remain negative suggesting patience is warranted.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Q1 real GDP revised up, but corporate profits slide
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Stronger Q1 real GDP growth estimate, led by upward revisions to services spending, capex, and S&L government spending. But corporate profits decline amid high labor costs. Margin compression intensifies. CFNAI trend implies subdued economic growth in early Q2, but no recession. Initial jobless claims remain range-bound, but above cyclical low, a sign of some softening in labor market conditions. Pending home sales flat amid lack of inventory and affordability challenges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Mega-cap bounce leads to return of market concentration
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The five largest S&P 500 stocks now make up 23.8% of the index, just shy of the nearly 50-year record set last year. Valuations for the top market cap stocks have surged while earnings growth has slowed. Cyclical Growth sectors, along with Energy, are the most concentrated at the sector level.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Important trends in large vs. small banks
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We highlight charts and data points we are following in the banking system. Although deposits are still leaving the banking system, a mix shift toward more large time deposits is making it more costly to keep deposits, weighing on NIMs. Small banks rapidly increased share of residential and commercial real estate loans.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Small-caps' latest stand
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The Russell 2000/1000 ratio is just above critical support from the 2020 lows. The Fed cycle, recession risks, and earnings growth favor large-caps, while short-term yield curve momentum, economic momentum, and valuations are moving toward small-caps. A broadening rally that includes small-caps would increase the odds of the rally continuing deep into the second half.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
State conditions confirm no recession at this time
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State coincident indexes improved in nearly all states in April, confirming continued widespread growth. But architecture billings trend points to weaker nonresidential construction spending in 2H 2023. Mortgage applications continue to fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Trade Closeout: Long Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
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Given weak near-term trends for Bitcoin, no signs the SEC will allow a Bitcoin ETF anytime soon, and poor second-half seasonality ahead, we close out our long Grayscale Bitcoin Trust trade with a 32.3% gain (as of May 23).

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Investment | N/A
Focus on free cash flow/enterprise value
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Free cash flow/enterprise value is the top factor over time and has a positive factor score. Select companies based on cash position, shareholder yield, price momentum, trend deviation, and free cash flow/enterprise value. Favored stocks include: Apple, Meta, Exxon Mobil, Visa, Broadcom, Cisco, General Electric, Caterpillar, Applied Materials.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly
A history of strength after extremes of earnings weakness
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Earnings growth is in bullish mode with earnings reversal - favorable influence on valuations. The S&P 500 is usually higher six and 12 months after earnings troughs. The Communication Services sector has the widest gap between trailing and expected earnings growth.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Flash PMIs paint a mixed picture, but continued growth in Q2
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Stronger services activity offsets weaker manufacturing and supports overall growth. Price pressures ease. New home sales rise. Richmond Fed activity remains weak.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
End of the Value renaissance?
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The outlook for yields, technical and fundamental trends, and sector indicators, support the tactical case for underweighting Value in Europe. We examine how sector neutral Value strategies can limit risk. We find that Value strategies can be most effective when stock characteristics are relatively homogenous, like in the Utilities sector.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Is the yield back up over?
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Since earlier this month, yields have had a significant backup. There were several factors that contributed to the rise, including the debt ceiling, Fed speakers, and supply. The market is oversold and near short-term support levels. But rising European yields could continue to put upward pressure on Treasurys.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
What's holding back Big Mo Tape?
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Big Mo Tape, a long-term sub-industry breadth model, is stuck in neutral. Financials and Energy are dragging down Big Mo Tape the most. Big Mo Tape is one of several intermediate-term and long-term technical indicators that have not confirmed.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Can the Q's continue?
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Since February 17, the Q's six largest stocks have accounted for over 90% of the fund's 12.4% return, pushing the cap-weighted vs. equal-weighted return spread to levels that have historically lead to below average returns.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
The U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate
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What is the impact of the U.S. debt ceiling on the U.S. economy, bonds, equities and Treasury ETF alternatives? This compendium of recent research reports on the U.S. debt ceiling debate helps to address this question.

Ned Davis Research | Special Report | Mixed
Are investors still fighting the Fed?
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The Monetary component is the only bullish indicator in the Fab Five. Investors may be overestimating Fed dovishness, suggesting the Monetary model may not stay bullish for long. The weight of the evidence is constructive on equities for now, but that could change with rising recession risk toward yearend.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Did the U.S. banking crisis lead to tighter lending standards abroad?
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Senior loan officer surveys around the world showed that the impact of the March banking crisis on credit conditions was limited, if not nonexistent. But central bank hikes and country-specific issues have seen loan demand fall and may still see credit conditions tighten further. This suggests more pain down the road.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Less default fear, more highs for the year
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More trend confirmation with Tech still strongest sector. Gold weakness, dollar strength, and upturns in consensus earnings estimates and breadth of positive revisions. These are all signs of diminishing default fear.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Leading indicators still point to recession ahead
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While the economy is not currently in recession, the LEI continued to decline in April, indicating a downside risk to growth in the next 6-12 months. Philly Fed manufacturing activity continues to contract, but at a slower pace. Initial jobless claims decline. Trend indicates some softening in labor demand, but not to recessionary levels. Existing home sales fall amid low affordability and tight inventory.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Debt ceiling standoff and sector leadership
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2011 is a good, albeit imperfect, analog to the current debt ceiling impasse. Leadership at the sector level has been tracking the 2011 case well, with cyclical Growth sectors leading, cyclical Value sectors lagging, and defensive sectors in between. High yield spreads and sector breadth are both holding up better than in 2011.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
What happens after the debt ceiling?
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The Treasury is running down its cash balances. Expect a large amount of T-Bill issuance to replenish the Treasury's coffers. A rise in the TGA should be offset by a similar drop in the RRP, resulting in little change to economic liquidity. We introduce ECON_53 - a new report on the Fed's balance sheet.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
So, this is what an alternative to equities looks like
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A litany of macro concerns has prevented a breakout above 4200. Higher T-bill yields present a reasonable alternative to stocks for the first time in 14 years, creating a relative valuation ceiling. Breadth measures need to broaden for the rally to resume in the second half.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Housing market bottoming
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Housing starts increase, but permits fall, led by multifamily. Trends point to construction activity bottoming. Mortgage applications pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Consumers, Construction and the late-cycle playbook
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If Retail starts to outperform Materials and Industrials, we will take it as a sign of a shift to early-cycle leadership. We maintain our PAVE overweight but may downgrade if late-cycle construction industries continue to lag.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Sentiment tug of war
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The Fab Five Sentiment Composite is neutral. Bullish fund flows and surveys offset bearish valuation indicators. The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll, which excludes valuation indicators, is showing more pessimism.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Retail sales rebound in early Q2, but miss expectations
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Retail sales rise in April, showing consumer resilience. Trend growth still moderating. Industrial production up, led by vehicles output. Builder confidence improves, suggesting a pickup in housing starts in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
What could the Treasury and Fed do to avoid a default?
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The risk of default is already impacting the T-Bill market. The best solution is to have a negotiated settlement that raises the debt limit. But what if they can't come to an agreement? We provide seven ways the Treasury and the Fed could avoid a default.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
What to watch in Europe
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European leading indicators continue to accelerate and inflation expectations have fallen, supporting the soft landing narrative. However, positive economic surprises have started to dissipate, providing less of a tailwind for equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Empire state manufacturing contracts sharply
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Empire Index falls near lowest level since May 2020. Widespread decline across individual activity indexes. Cass Freight shipments and expenditures continue to fall. Both reports point to weaker economic activity into Q2.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
The strongest uptrends and downtrends
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Identifying strong trends based on the spread between smoothings and the gap's direction. Strong uptrends in what's heavily weighted with big Tech-related stocks, bonds, cash, most European currencies, gold and bitcoin. Strong downtrends in U.S. Dollar Index, small-cap Value, Energy, Real Estate and Latin American equities.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumer sentiment worsens
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Consumer sentiment falls to a six-month low, on weaker economic outlook and the debt ceiling standoff. Long-term inflation expectations pick up. But import price deflation continues, supporting a Fed pause for now.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Are EVs gaining traction again?
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After skidding downhill during the "Thematic Winter" of 2021 and 2022, our Autonomous & EV ETF Group's 12-month momentum indicator may turn positive for the first time in more than a year. EVs still face a rocky road - China's incentives are expected to phase out this year likely front-loading sales and economic growth is slowing. To get bullish, we'll need to see additional indicator improvement.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Clock ticking to recession?
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Indicators driven by Fed policy suggest a recession could happen in the next few months. Other indicators, with less lead time, suggest a recession is due currently. Yet, NDR and the Atlanta Fed GDP model still say, "Not yet."

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Diverging sector correlations
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Correlations between the S&P 500 and its constituents have been trending lower since October. Correlation trends at the sector level have diverged since the start of the regional bank crisis. Financials' correlation with the Regional Banks sub-industry is on the rise, but the sector could have a window for outperformance.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Secular trend check-up - a bull in recovery
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Cyclical market trends have been consistent with secular bull, as would rise after last Fed rate hike. Bull case also supported by sector and region relative strength trends, downturns in volatility and credit spreads, upturn in crowd sentiment, rising consumer confidence and low unemployment. Also watching economic indicators, relative valuations, bond yields and commodities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Initial jobless claims jump
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Initial jobless claims post their highest level since October 2021, as labor demand softens. PPI inflation cools to lowest level since early 2021. Falling pressures across the production pipeline suggest continued disinflation. These reports support a Fed pause in rate hikes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Who will buy U.S. debt? (and why I'm warming up to private credit)
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Big projected budget deficits will add to the supply of Treasurys. Unless U.S. debt becomes relatively more attractive, the burden of buying will fall on domestic investors, which could weigh on equity valuations. Growing opportunities in private credit for investors with patient capital.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Is Growth vs Value really that simple?
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Mega-cap FANMAG stocks have had a huge influence on Growth versus Value in recent years. Interest rate normalization and reshoring of manufacturing should influence Growth/Value beyond FANMAG. Index rebalancing has reduced FANMAG's impact on S&P Growth/Value relative strength and could do the same for Russell in June.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
CPI inflation eases slightly, but underlying pressures persist
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A pickup in core goods prices slows down the broad disinflation process. With inflation still too high for the Fed's comfort, this report supports a Fed pause but no imminent rate cuts. Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Oil: return to the range
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Slowing global growth and a potential U.S. recession will likely keep WTI appreciation subdued and may weigh on the commodity intermediate-term. In the short-term, increased refining utilization and pessimistic sentiment support a rise from recently oversold levels. A close above the lower end of the recent range is bullish. Failure to do so would likely lead to another test of the March low.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly
Using correlations to make sense of theme performance
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We take a look at near-term (3-month) correlations to a variety of price-based factors to help determine which themes are more at risk in the current environment.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Why this is one of NDR's most popular charts
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The S&P 500 median P/E shows the market is moderately overvalued. FANMAG stocks are expensive, but they are not solely to blame. Small-caps and Value are less overvalued than other parts of the market.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Debt ceiling impasse: 2023 vs. 2011
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The debt ceiling impasse will be resolved but may come down to the wire. A temporary suspension is likely. Comparisons to 2011 suggest a downside risk to equities around the X-date and slower economic growth this year and next. For an economy already facing a heightened risk of recession, the debt standoff is a negative.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Small business optimism slides
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NFIB index falls to lowest level since 2013. A majority of its components deteriorate. It is consistent with an elevated risk of recession this year. Housing affordability declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Asking the right questions about credit
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We ask three critical questions about credit. We highlight the results of the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey and provide updates for some important credit indicators. Report showed slightly higher credit tightening at levels consistent with prior recessions.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Global economy still accelerating despite risks
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Global economic growth continued to accelerate, according to the latest PMIs, supporting continued upside in global equities. But growth remains uneven, led entirely by services, while prices have been sticky to the downside, suggesting downside risks. Growth conditions in the U.S., China, and Europe remain constructive for now.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Employment trends point to continued job gains
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ETI rebounds in April, consistent with continued job gains over the next several months. A pickup in the wholesale I/S ratio suggests unplanned inventory accumulation, which may lead to slower growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Final Fed rate hikes and secular trend influences
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2022 decline consistent with past cyclical bears within secular bulls. From final rate hikes to subsequent first cuts, DJIA has tended to perform better during secular bulls than secular bears. Secular bull cases are associated with shallow cyclical bears or double-digit gains, while most secular bear cases are associated with severe cyclical bears.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Labor still too tight for Fed's comfort
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Contrary to expectations, the unemployment rate fell to a new cyclical low. Wage growth faster than expected. Payrolls mixed, with April higher than the consensus partially offsetting huge downward revisions. Today's report doesn't support imminent rate cuts.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Consumers not acting recessionary...yet
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One read on consumer health is to look at more discretionary restaurant sales relative to more defensive grocery store sales. The restaurant/grocery ratio has surged back to pre-pandemic levels and accelerated Y/Y in Q1, indicating consumer strength.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Driving toward recession?
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Markets remain choppy and not "in gear." Transports, in particular, have been weak. Freight data depicts broad weakness in the goods sector, which may foreshadow a bigger economic problem. We detail various indicators of shipping and freight activity.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Is China's recovery losing steam?
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While China's economic recovery remains intact, momentum is fading. The lack of a strong industrial rebound is weighing on industrial commodities. We continue to hold a bearish outlook for China in the long-term, in line with our underweight position in emerging market equities.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Japan at new highs - can outperformance continue?
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Improving relative and absolute price performance with bullish breadth and support from negative yen momentum. But Nikkei sentiment reversing from optimism extreme while yen sentiment reversing from pessimism extreme. Composite model has improved but liquidity has worsened. We remain marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Layoff trends worsen
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Both initial jobless claims and Challenger job cut announcements show labor demand has softened this year. Falling productivity pushes up ULC, keeping inflation pressures elevated. Trade deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Monthly sector update - May 2023
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The S&P 500 finished April up 1.5%, with leadership skewing defensive. With five of the six FANMAG components reporting, 100% have beaten earnings estimates compared to only one of six in Q4. We got more in line with the model's cautious outlook by shifting more defensive in our sector strate gy on April 27.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Last rate hike?
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Implementing curve steepeners, as tightening cycle likely over. Fundamentals and technicals support move. Fed removes "sufficiently restrictive" from statement and eliminates a sense of urgency about doing more hikes. Moves to "hope and pray" policy. Fed very focused on lending and credit conditions.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Thematic update May 2023
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Only 10 themes outperformed in April, the fewest themes since September 2022. Consumer themes stood out as the largest ETF's for Longevity, Pet Care, Sports Betting, and India Consumer were all up 3.8% or more in the month. April was a respite from a hot Q1 and largely a risk-off month, but we are not likely to shift defensive until we see more signs of recession.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Focus | Monthly
ISM services activity picks up slightly
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ISM Services PMI up modestly in April, consistent with continued expansion. Price pressures steady. ADP private payrolls accelerate, also indicating continued economic growth. Wage gains moderate. Light vehicle sales jump. Homeownership rate up slightly in Q1, but housing shortage persists.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Downbeat respondents, upbeat implications
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Surveys reflect investor caution. Equities tend to perform well when expectations for weakness are relatively high and when fund inflows are lacking. Rising earnings beat rate and revisions rate.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
What will drive the next phase in Growth versus Value?
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The Value secular bull that started in 2020 is young by historical standards. Reshoring of manufacturing, FANMAG's reset, interest rate normalization, interest in dividends, and valuations are key drivers. Growth and Value at the sector level is often fluid and can differ depending on the methodology of index providers.

Ned Davis Research | Special Report | Mixed
Where the U.S. economy stands in Q1 2023
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NDR Economic Cycle Infographic updated for Q1 2023, highlighting 12 economic sub-cycles. Slower real GDP growth, led by a slump in inventories. But private domestic demand firmed. Credit conditions worsened, amid the banking turmoil and tighter Fed policy. Inflation stalled at an elevated level, as the labor market remained tight.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Economics Cycle Snapshot | Quarterly
JOLTS show some easing in labor demand
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Job openings decline, while layoffs pick up. But labor market conditions still too tight for a Fed pivot. Factory orders boosted by aircraft. But core orders decline, reflecting weak capex demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
A major rotation and what it means
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Strong leadership from European Defensive stocks implies investors are skeptical as to the continuation of positive economic momentum. In the past, such a shift in leadership has often preceded weak European equity returns. But given we have yet to see broad market trend and breadth weaken, we remain moderately constructive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Bond market performance after the last rate hike
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The Fed will implement a hope and pray policy, as it raises rates for the last time in this cycle. Yields usually fall after the end of the tightening cycle. The curve has always steepened. Spreads and term premium were mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
ETF Model equity allocation rebounds
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Equity allocation returned to 72%. Two-thirds of the top-level indicators now favor equities. U.S. Large Caps, International Developed, and U.S. Growth have the largest allocations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Model Update | Monthly
Manufacturing activity decline eases
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Both ISM and S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMIs improve in April. Price pressures rise. Construction spending rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Long term trend update
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Stocks, housing, and the dollar look overvalued versus their long-term trend. Bonds, commodities, and gold are more neutral. Oil is close to undervalued. The Fab Five and NDR Cycle Composite are bullish for the shorter term.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Real income growth picks up as inflation eases
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PCE inflation eases, but core components are mixed. Slow progress implies Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Real income growth strengthens, supporting a positive outlook for consumer spending. Employment cost pressures pick up in Q1, as labor market remains tight. Consumer inflation expectations rise. Regional factory activity mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Final Titan tops 200-day
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With yesterday's technology led surge on the back of META earnings, AMZN became the final Tech Titan to reclaim its 200-day moving average - though it is still the lone holdout vs. its relative 200-day average. Expanding Titan breadth is encouraging but as we've highlighted before, we will continue to look for expanding participation as proof of a sustainable, broad market rally.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Consumers fear a recession but don't act like it
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Consumer expectations near their lowest level since 2013 show growing recession fears. But strong current conditions keep consumer spending going, pushing off a recession call. The level of consumer confidence is in the neutral zone for equities.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Treasury ETF alternatives during the debt ceiling debate
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Realized volatility for equity funds has dropped to low levels but it remains elevated for Treasury funds at all maturities. We screened for alternatives to TLT with higher yield, lower volatility, and increasing relative strength rank. The results may work as alternatives over the short-term, though a replay of 2011 could lead to a sharp reversal.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly
Real GDP growth slows, but domestic demand still strong
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Real GDP growth slows in Q1, weighed down by a decline in inventories. But real final sales sales jump, led by strong consumer spending. Inflation pressures firm. Jobless claims decline in the latest week. Pending home sales plunge, hindered by a lack of supply.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Getting in line with a more cautious outlook
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Upgrading Health Care and Utilities to overweight, downgrading Industrials to underweight. The seasonally weak "sell in May" period overlaps with several other market headwinds this year. The sector model has gotten in line with the cautious outlook in April.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Answering your questions about globalization
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China has been the biggest source of deglobalization. It's less about onshoring and more about ally-shoring. It will be a long time until the dollar is dead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Introducing the NDR Credit Monitor
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We introduce report ECON_52, which contains a summary of key credit indicators with chart links. Report shows ranges of each data series along with current reading. Tabs group indicators by frequency. Report provides a chart bundle option.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Early cycle leaders fading
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The NDR Early Cycle Composite (ECC) is underperforming where one would expect at this stage of a bull market. The truth is more nuanced: the ECC has outperformed in spurts, and its strength has tended to fade earlier after non-recession bears. Some Early Cycle Composite components are holding up better than others.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Corporate profits facing macro risks
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Corporate profits expected to continue to weaken into 2023, as demand slows amid higher financing costs and tighter credit conditions. Strong ULC growth remains a challenge for profit margins, but lower cost pressures on other inputs may offset some of the damage. A likely profits recession does not guarantee an economic recession but keeps the risk of one elevated.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly
Mixed indicator evidence, but no recession
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Durable goods orders up, but core orders continue to decline. State economic conditions remain favorable, confirming no recession in Q1. Advance goods trade deficit narrows. Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Ten Most Interesting - Homebuilder Charts
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The homebuilders in our First Time Homebuyer group have been on quite a run this year, up nearly 30% on average. Still, we see too much risk to housing affordability given persistent inflationary pressures and an even more persistent Fed. Even in a bullish scenario we would wait for the group to be less overbought before jumping in.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Select stocks with greater shareholder yield
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Shareholder yield has strong factor performance and an elevated factor score. Select companies based on cash position, shareholder yield, price momentum, trend deviation, and free cash flow/enterprise value. Favored stocks include: Apple, Meta, Exxon Mobil, Visa, Merck, AbbVie, Broadcom, Cisco, UPS.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly
If you think hedge funds are short stocks, wait till you see T-notes
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Leveraged funds have their largest net short position in T-note futures on record. As a percent of total short interest, leverage funds have the biggest net short position since 2019. The broader NDR Daily Bond Sentiment Composite exited its extreme pessimism zone for the first time this year.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumer confidence weakens
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Consumer confidence falls to a six-month low, led by sinking expectations. New home sales jump in March, amid lower mortgage rates and slower y/y price growth. Existing home prices rise in February. But y/y moderation still going. Richmond Fed regional activity continues to contract.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Gold and the golden rule
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We remain bullish on gold, aligned with uptrend. Watching trends of commodities, inflation expectations, nominal and real interest rates, and the U.S. dollar. Pullback has left gold close to oversold levels while correcting excessive optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
European dividend strategy
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The strategic rationale and tactical indicators continue to support our preference for Dividend Payers over Non-Payers. We also favor Dividend Growers to Non-Growers on a strategic basis, although tactical indicators are mixed. Disinflation and falling yields could present a challenge to High Yielding dividend stock performance.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
5 indicators showing an improving environment for bonds
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Several indicators tracking the economy and inflation have turned bullish. The most important ones for easing Fed policy show some softening in labor market conditions. Others show a weak goods sector. Expected input price pressures are easing and existing home prices are declining.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
CFNAI suggests slow growth, but no recession
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CFNAI holds steady in March. Three-month average confirms slow growth, but no recession, in Q1. Texas manufacturing activity and near-term outlook deteriorate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
A trend of rising risk appetite, falling risk aversion?
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Watching to see if Risk-On/Risk-Off Ratio confirms global breadth improvement. The ratio is in a bullish mode above 200-day smoothing but lagging ACWI advance. Watch positively-correlating components of the Risk-On Index and inversely-correlating components of the Risk-Off Index.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Flash PMIs at odds with leading indicators
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Both Manufacturing and Services flash PMIs in expansion territory in April. Price pressures accelerate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
An epic Homebuilder breakout
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We would take it as a very positive sign if Pulte relative strength broke out of its post housing bubble trading range.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Who's coming back to the labor force?
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The labor force participation rate among 16-64 year-olds has returned to pre-COVID levels, but the overall rate is still at a deficit due to older cohorts. The underlying demographic details reveal that many traditionally underrepresented groups have made up for the slack. But more needs to be done to increase participation to take advantage of the U.S.'s economic and equity market potential.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
China, emerging currencies and the impact on EM
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Remaining underweight Emerging Markets while watching to see if EM currency strength and China's performance lead to improving relative strength. Watch how Chinese megacaps affect China, and watch influence of China's weight on EM. Breadth reflected by equal-weighted China index and EM Advance/Decline Line.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Leading indicators for the economy continue to weaken
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LEI falls for a 12th consecutive month and by the most since April 2020, indicating an elevated risk of recession. Philly Fed manufacturing activity contracts at the fastest pace in this cycle. Both initial and continuing jobless claims pick up, as labor market conditions ease. Existing home sales resume their decline in March.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Can the eurozone economy outperform for longer?
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In aggregate, economic data continues to accelerate and surprise to the upside. But inflation remains a problem, suggesting the ECB is not done raising rates, making it one of the last central banks to end their tightening cycle. Eventually, the tight policy will bite. The ongoing geopolitical risk with Russia and Europe's fading potential growth prospects suggest a less sanguine outlook on a secular basis.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Is Financials due for a bounce?
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Financials has traded down to very long-term support. Diversified Banks has beaten Q1 earnings estimates at a faster clip than Regional Banks. Signs of washed-out sentiment have started to build for Financials, including from ETF fund flows, which have turned negative.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Banking data you can use! Plus the unintended consequences of bank regulation
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We introduce report ECON_51, which contains a consolidated view of the key data points contained in the Fed's H.8 report with interactive chart links to quickly visualize the data. One unintended consequence of Dodd-Frank was to push more lending to the smaller banks. Small banks capital position has eroded back to pre-GFC levels.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Can earnings pull out of their funk?
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Consensus estimates for Q1 have declined, but Q2-Q4 remain elevated. Macro conditions remain unfavorable for earnings for now. Absent a recession, modest earnings reacceleration is possible in 2023.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
What Web 3.0 means to us
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In researching what is the vision for Web 3.0 we have found there is no standard definition. However, there are some key features that are largely agreed upon including decentralization of applications, the use of 3D graphics, artificial intelligence and semantic data. Web 3.0 related ETFs are off to a good start in 2023, aided greatly by strong performance from Big Tech and cryptocurrencies. We remain overweight Global X AI ETF (AIQ) and Grayscale Bitcoin (GBTC).

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
Architecture billings up slightly, but outlook dims
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Modest growth in architecture billings in March. But trend and future demand indicators point to weaker nonresidential construction spending ahead. Mortgage applications decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
More positive earnings revisions
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Earnings sentiment reversal indicated by improving breadth of positive revisions. As earnings follow last year's revisions lower with negative momentum, stocks stand to benefit from expectations of improvement. Most sectors include revisions improvement and positive breadth. After a momentum reversal in the fourth quarter beat rate for the U.S., watch first quarter rates.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Multifamily construction declines
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Housing starts and permits decline in March, led by the multifamily sector. Biggest one-month drop in multifamily permits since July 2015.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Munis uncompelling
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From a valuation standpoint, munis are unattractive - even for those in the highest federal tax bracket. Rising rates and shrinking supply contributed to munis outperformance last year, as the reinvestment pool remained limited. Technicals remain favorable for now.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Homebuilder confidence continues to improve
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Improvements in current and expected home sales lift builder confidence. No evidence so far of damage from the banking turmoil. Empire state manufacturing activity rebounds, but near-term expectation remain subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Flows indicate commodity trend skepticism
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ACWI nearing 52-week high signals potential for new cyclical bull market. Outflows from LATAM and commodity funds reveal skepticism of commodity uptrend. Rising correlations among safe haven assets indicative of lingering investor concerns.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | ETFs on the Move | Weekly
Can the Cycle Composite's remarkable run continue?
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The NDR S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2023 suggested a strong January and choppiness in February - early April. Absent a macro event, the Cycle Composite suggests the path of least resistance is higher through Q2 but a tougher second half. How fiscal stimulus arrived may have been unusual, but it came on schedule to support the Cycle Composite's strong pre-election year message.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Consumers pull back on spending
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Retail sales decline more than expected in March, a sign of diminishing consumer strength. Consumer sentiment rises slightly in April, but to a still subdued level. Industrial production up, led by utilities. But manufacturing output shrinks. Import prices decline, contributing to broad disinflation. Housing affordability remains depressed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Construction destruction
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If our Infrastructure Subindustry Index relative strength line breaks down, we will take it as a sign that late-cycle Industrials is out of favor. The Infrastructure theme is on downgrade watch.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | Trend Chart | Weekly
Inflation slowing, but macro risks still high
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Both CPI and PPI inflation came down in March, led by lower energy prices. Falling input cost pressures and a widening CPI-PPI spread are a tailwind for profit margins and equity prices. Waning labor market strength tilts the focus toward potential recession versus high inflation.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
A global bull market in the making
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Global breadth improving with room for more optimism. Tech and Energy trends consistent with cyclical bull within secular bull. Interest rates supporting prospects for the global equity uptrend to continue.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Weekly
Sector leadership around final Fed rate hikes
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Leadership has tended to be more defensive than cyclical around the end of tightening cycles. Monetary policy works on a lag, with some economic and market effects becoming clearer in year two. The sector model has a consistent record of shifting defensive around the conclusion of tightening cycles.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Weekly
Producer prices decline
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Led by energy, PPI inflation fell in March, supporting a Fed pause after May. Initial jobless claims trend upward, as labor market strength begins to wane.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Global monetary policy - some signs of reprieve?
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Global monetary policy looks tighter than ever, but under the surface, we're starting to see some signs of reprieve. The equity market, however, usually performs best when most central banks have been in easing mode. Both historical precedent and the inflation environment suggest that we likely won't get to that point until at least the end of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
CMBS not yet attractive
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For most bond investors, CMBS is a niche sector, comprising just 1.5% of the $30 trillion U.S. Universal Index. CMBS has modestly underperformed the broader bond market and spreads are wider. We remain marketweight. Stay up in quality. Remain patient.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Market reactions to final Fed rate hikes
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The last hike has been bearish for stocks, but not since Greenspan. Equity themes include large over small, High Quality over Low Quality, and Payers over Non-Payers. Growth/Value has been mixed, depending on where the excesses were heading into the tightening cycle.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Weekly
Energy discipline literally paying dividends
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Energy companies' capital discipline has elevated all three components of shareholder yield. OPEC+'s stated production cuts and planned refilling of the SPR should support crude prices and allow companies to continue to return capital. Elevated yields supported by continued discipline may make energy companies attractive on a relative basis if earnings for the broader market are pressured later this year.

Ned Davis Research | Thematic | On the Radar | Weekly
CPI inflation eases, but the core remains sticky
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CPI inflation moderates, as energy prices fall. Shelter y/y inflation still flying high, but monthly price growth slows. Progress on super-core inflation is a green light for the Fed to pause after one more rate hike in May.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Hedge funds massively short S&P futures
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Hedge funds are nearly the most net short S&P 500 futures since 2015. Open interest is less than last fall, so hedge funds' shorts are a bigger share of total positions. Bullish macro or earnings news leaves some vulnerable to a short squeeze.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
A healthy correction
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Worries over banking sector contagion in March have relieved excesses in investor optimism. The recent correction in European equities is consistent with a period of consolidation within an upward trending market. Longer-term survey sentiment suggests European investors still have a wall of worry to climb.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly
Small business optimism stuck in low range
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NFIB index declines in March near its lowest level of this cycle. Small business loan availability worsens. Most other NFIB components also fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Sufficiently restrictive: financial stability vs. economic stability
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We numerically define "sufficiently restrictive" and present a graphical representation of what it means for financial stability and for economic stability. The equilibrium rate for financial stability is less than that for economic stability. This presents policy and communication challenges for the Fed.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
Employment trends weaken
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ETI declines in March, pointing to slower payrolls and economic growth over the near-term. Used car prices rise, slowing overall goods disinflation. Wholesale inventories little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Leaning overweight but some offsets in the indicator evidence
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The bear market mostly ended in the middle of 2022, with the trend evidence slowly improving, but some indicators have not verified. On the bullish side, a buy from the Leading Indicator Model was accompanied by a long period of short-term pessimism, inflation and interest rates peaked, and the cycle composite turned up late last year. On the offsetting side, long-term trend, valuations, and rising debt service could weigh on gains in 2H.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Hotline | Insights | 3X Weekly
Labor markets remain tight but show some cracks
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Employment and earnings slow but remain historically elevated. Household survey unabashedly strong with rising participation. Enough evidence to cement another 25 bp Fed rate hike.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
NDR Weekly Snapshots
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Weekly talking points and key visuals from NDR strategists' insights.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Weekly Snapshots | N/A
Global economy continues to grow, but some cracks are emerging
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The global economy continued to accelerate in March, according to the latest global PMIs, a historically positive development for global equities. But the manufacturing sector and overall output expectations weakened, suggesting cracks under the surface. The recovery will likely fade as the year progresses as Chinese demand comes back to earth, and other parts of the world adjust to tighter credit conditions.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Weekly
Layoff trends pick up
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Although initial jobless claims fell last week, revised data shows that the trend is higher than previously thought. Challenger layoff announcements have also trended higher, led by tech and financial sector job cuts. As labor market conditions have started to ease, this should allow the Fed to pause after the May meeting.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily
Commercial real estate in trouble again
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CRE had its worst quarter since the GFC. Majority of institutional grade properties were written down. There's never been a time when sector positioning has mattered more. The Office sector remains troubled. CRE faces continued financing difficulties and the prospect of recession looms ahead. The market is not overbuilt but valuations remain high. A period of price adjustment awaits.

Ned Davis Research | Special Report | Mixed

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