The global aggregate economy has staged a modest rebound after a soft patch in Q1, and leading indicators argue for some moderate upside in the coming months. But we're seeing signs that the expansion cycle is maturing. Risks to the global outlook have heightened since the beginning of the year. These include the rising risk of trade war, tighter global monetary policy, emerging market vulnerability, and geopolitical concerns. We reaffirm our forecast for 3.7% global real GDP growth in 2018 assuming these risks don't come into fruition in the near-term.
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