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Expect steeper curve around first rate cut
Historical analysis shows a consistent tendency to steepen around the first Fed rate cut. Current case closest to 1995 and 1998. The FOMC should reduce its target range by 50 bp to re-center the funds rate relative to longer run expectations and inflation. All of our yield curve models now favor steepeners, except the 10-2.Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Focus | Bi-Weekly
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