We downgrade our outlook for 2019 real GDP growth to 2.3% from 2.5% initially, due mainly to escalating trade issues, lower business confidence, and increased policy uncertainty. We downgrade our outlook for 2019 CPI inflation to 2.5% from 2.7%, which still implies a pickup in price pressures in 2H. Even so, we do not see signs of recession in the near-term.
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