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U.S. on course for slower growth in 2H 2019

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We downgrade our outlook for 2019 real GDP growth to 2.3% from 2.5% initially, due mainly to escalating trade issues, lower business confidence, and increased policy uncertainty. We downgrade our outlook for 2019 CPI inflation to 2.5% from 2.7%, which still implies a pickup in price pressures in 2H. Even so, we do not see signs of recession in the near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

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