Product: Copper London Technical Composite Model - AA1202
Run Date: 2025-05-13
Update Frequency:  Daily

Explanation Guide

Asset Allocation Chart Watch

 

NDR COMMODITY TREND MODELS

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Investor interest in commodities has soared in recent years as the asset class has outperformed traditional assets such as stocks and bonds.  Individual commodity prices have been driven higher by a number of factors, including increased demand from China, India, and other emerging countries that need energy and metals to support manufacturing and infrastructure development.  As these countries prosper, they are also putting upward pressure on prices of other commodities such as grains and livestock to aid their improving standard of living.

To help our clients navigate trends within the commodity complex, we developed a series of price-based technical models covering 30 individual commodities sorted into five groups: 

The series is designed to provide an intermediate-term perspective on price trends.  Using five-way cross-validation methodology, a set of price-based technical signal-generation templates are individually optimized by a genetic algorithm.  All resulting signal-generation components meeting quality standards are combined to create a composite technical model.

The top clip features the commodity price line, a table depicting historical performance based on the model's previous levels, and a set of performance statistics based on buy and sell signals.  The mode box in the upper left-hand corner generates performance statistics divided into quintiles (every 20%), which are marked in the bottom clip with dashed red lines.

The bottom clip is the composite model, where the components are scaled from 0-100 such that 0% is maximum bearish and 100% is maximum bullish.  Buy signals are generated when the model level rises above the top bracket, while short signals are generated when the level falls below the bottom bracket.  The model remains on the previous signal when between brackets.  The buy and sell brackets are marked by dashed green lines.  

A perpetual contract is a time-weighted average of the closing price of two distinct futures contracts for an underlying commodity.  NDR uses a series that looks forward 91 days from the present date and rolls forward on the 10th day of the delivery month.

 

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Data Points (Last 5): 


AA1202                05/12/2025  05/09/2025  05/08/2025  05/07/2025  05/06/2025
====================  ==========  ==========  ==========  ==========  ==========
Copper (HG)              464.580     467.640     462.630     468.130     479.800
COMTCHG Commodities       56.634      56.615      55.160      57.360      56.605

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Historical Versions:

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