Which Countries Would Be Hurt Most by U.S. Protectionism?

We discuss the potential impact of U.S. protectionism on its trading partners, examining countries' export exposure to the U.S. and elasticity estimates of import price and import- product substitution. Assuming broad-based protectionism, we suspect that Mexico and large portions of emerging Asia (namely southeast Asia) would be the most negatively impacted. Given the sheer size of their exposure to the U.S., Canada and Ireland would also be adversely affected. But if the Administration chooses to impose large tariffs selectively, as has been suggested, some countries could hypothetically benefit from protectionism.

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