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Tim Hayes, Chief Global Strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, addresses the question of when will rising interest rates threaten equities in The Technical Analyst Magazine.
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NDR was featured on NZZ Today discussing personal investor sentiment. View the full article here.
VENICE, FL--(Marketwired - Oct 25, 2016) - The Ned Davis Research Group (NDRG), a leading provider of objective, evidence-based investment research, analysis and market models, has partnered with RSRCHXchange to offer the NDR Advisory Service to clients on the RSRCHX platform, the online marketplace for institutional research.
The NDR Advisory Service is a series of monthly, weekly and daily publications that delivers a concise version of NDR's analysis, strategy and opinion to investors. It covers the work of nearly 40 analysts and strategists, across asset classes, from a firm that has a rich history of providing high value, relevant, empirically-based market research and insights.
The RSRCHX platform is a research aggregation, procurement and management solution built in consultation with both asset management institutions and research providers to address the challenges of MiFID II compliant research procurement. The RSRCHX platform launched in September 2015; research from over 140 providers is now available to approximately 1000 buy-side firms, and the number is increasing every day. Read more...
Rates traders for months have been betting that long-term bond yields will fall relative to short-term ones — and for months it’s been paying off. But that bet on the so-called flattening of the yield curve may be in the nascent stages of reversal. Strategists at Ned Davis Research say they’re closing out their so-called “flattener” trade, citing a shift in technical and fundamental indicators. “The flattening trend has lost a great deal of momentum,” said the strategists, led by Joe Kalish, in a research note. They added: “Some important intermediate-term downtrend lines were recently broken, suggesting the days were numbered for the flattener trade.” Read more...
Increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric is making a bad stretch worse for stocks investors fell in love with for their high dividends.
Utilities dropped for a fifth straight day Thursday, leaving them poised for the worst week since April. Real estate and consumer staples shares were also in retreat as the odds for higher interest rates this year pushed past 55 percent. The S&P 500 fell 0.9 percent to 2,152.27 at 1:22 p.m. in New York, with financial shares joining the retreat amid growing concern that Deutsche Bank AG’s woes could spread.
Losses for companies broadly defined as bond surrogates mark a continuation of a trend that’s held since the middle of the year, when utilities, drugmakers, real-estate and staples shares began to weaken. An exacerbating influence is the relative size of the industries: according to Ned Davis Research, stocks in the category trade with a higher market capitalization compared to industries like banks than any time since the bull market began in March 2009. Read more...
VENICE, FL--(Marketwired - Sep 26, 2016) - The Ned Davis Research Group (NDRG), a provider of objective, evidence-based financial market models, analysis, and research since 1980, announces its partnership with AIREX Market.
AIREX will host NDRG's monthly Market Digest and Weekly Advisory summaries on its platform. Chief Executive Officer of Ned Davis Research Matthias Paul said, We have chosen AIREX as an additional distribution platform in order to reach a wide range of investment managers and advisors that would be difficult to reach through our direct-sales approach. A stream-lined online marketplace, AIREX allows us to offer some of our unbundled strategic research to a broad audience and that is a key reason we chose them as a partner.
The Market Digest is NDRG's flagship Advisory publication laying out the firm's asset allocation strategy, supported by a monthly overview of the global and U.S. economy. It includes key trends and risks in equities, fixed income, sector allocation, and commodities.
The Advisory Weekly Update pubs are summaries of the global and U.S. economy and asset allocation including equities, fixed income, sector allocation, and commodities. It also provides implementation ideas for ETFs. Read more...
Although there’s a lot of risky stuff on the political calendar for the next three months, options markets remain silent. Why? In “Silver Blaze,” Sherlock Holmes investigates the disappearance of a racehorse. He points out “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time,” meaning the dog did nothing at all. Had strangers broken in, Holmes reasons, surely it would have barked. Therefore, the dog had to be acquainted with the thief. Something similar appears to be happening in financial markets. The three-month implied volatility of the euro against the U.S. dollar has dropped around 3 percentage points since June and, after a bumpy year, is now back at 2014 levels. This is a gauge of how expensive it is for investors to use options to hedge themselves against swings in the euro versus the dollar happening three months from now. Read more...
Hedge funds are betting that swelling inventories will help push the price of oil lower, but this glut still looks milder than past bearish cycles in crude. The price of oil has fallen roughly 14% since its most recent peak in June, as investors worry that large stocks of gasoline and crude, coupled with the continued strength of global production, will put pressure on this market. The gasoline glut could hurt profits at refineries, pushing them to buy less oil, some investors say. More than 40% of the bets made by “managed money,” mostly hedge funds, are for the price of the U.S. benchmark—West Texas Intermediate—and petroleum products to fall, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hedge funds haven’t been so gloomy since January, when oil prices were in free-fall. Read more...
When the Federal Reserve hiked benchmark rates in December, the initial jump in the short-end of the nominal U.S. yield curve raised expectations that foreign buyers would snap up the country's assets, thanks to their yield relative to those of other developed markets ravaged by low policy rates. In fact, net foreign flows to the U.S. have been decidedly weak this year, thanks to an exodus by foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds, who've been dumping U.S. securities in order to raise cash to put to work at home. Read more...
Financial markets round the world slumped Friday, blindsided by the previous day’s stunning Brexit vote. The major U.S. stock indexes fell nearly 4% Friday and finished down over 1% on the week, after having been up 2% just before Thursday’s referendum.
The U.K. decision to leave the European Union isn’t good for U.S. equity market sentiment in general, with investors already jittery about U.S. and global growth,...Read more.
Add up the market value of all of the government bonds trading at negative rates around the world, and it comes to more than $8 trillion, a testament to just how hard central bankers are pushing returns down in hopes of spurring people and businesses to spend.
But subtract inflation, and it becomes apparent how difficult that is. That number shrinks to $6.8 trillion, half of its level just a few months ago, according to data from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
It is perhaps the clearest sign of the intense difficulty that central banks are encountering in their extraordinary efforts to stimulate slumping economies—even as interest rates plunge to fresh lows.
There’s new-found optimism about the price of oil. That’s pushed analysts and investors lately to assemble models based on the view that oil prices have found a new floor around $50 per barrel.
They’ve become more optimistic about oil prices in recent months as production disruptions have helped bring supply and demand back toward balance. Bank analysts lifted their crude price forecasts for the third consecutive month in May, a Wall Street Journal survey found.
But others point to the temporary nature of outages in places like Canada and Nigeria as signs that oil traders may be getting ahead of themselves. Long-term plans to curb production remain elusive: the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries failed to reach such an agreement on Thursday, pushing U.S. crude prices down 1.7% on the day.
It’s been a confusing year for investors and the following reality doesn’t make the current environment any easier to comprehend: the world is flat.
Investors have been busy selling shorter-dated Treasury bonds at the same time that buyers have flocked to long-dated ones, narrowing the gap between the yield on 10-year U.S. government debt (1.82%) and two-year debt (0.84%) to the tightest level since the end of 2007, according to The Wall Street Journal. Recent bond moves are unusual for a number of reasons. For one, Tony Welch at Ned Davis Research points out that this “flatter” yield curve doesn’t usually mix with surging oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude oil has climbed 85% from its February low. Rising oil prices portend higher inflation readings, and long-term bond holders usually demand higher yields from long bonds when inflation is on the rise. Read more...
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