Recent Publications

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Robust Growth

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Private sector business activity continued to grow at a robust pace in September, despite some temporary disruptions from hurricane Harvey.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q2 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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Savings are relatively low and debt relatively high.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

After Year-End Rally, Rate-Driven Risk in '18?

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Year-end rally prospects supported by improving breadth and room for rising optimism. Risk of 2018 decline would be supported by complacency and signs of a negative impact from rising bond yields. Changing correlations already indicate that ongoing yield advance would be a negative influence on Technology, which dominates global market cap.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Implementing Thematic Shifts

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Shifting to Commodity over Consumer theme; Upgrading Energy to overweight while downgrading Consumer Discretionary to underweight. Health Care upgraded to marketweight while Utilities downgraded to marketweight, more in line with Growth over Value. Energy Equipment & Services, Biotechnology, and Aerospace & Defense upgraded to overweight. Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders upgraded to marketweight; Electric Utilities downgraded to marketweight and Media to underweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Demographic Demise or Opportunity?

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Global population growth is slowing and is projected to have some profound proportional shifts by age and by country over the coming decades. Many developed, and even some emerging, country populations are shrinking and getting much older. The least developed world is set to provide the biggest contribution to the world's labor force through the end of the century. These shifting population structures will likely have implications on the long-term performance of equity markets, economic growth, productivity, and inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Global Featured Report | Mixed

LEI Points To Stronger Growth Near-Term

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Philly Fed factory activity picks up. Jobless claims decline. But consumer expectations and comfort pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Points To Stronger Growth Near-Term

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Philly Fed factory activity picks up. Jobless claims decline. But consumer expectations and comfort pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold

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Our current ETF recommendations are relatively high beta and sensitive to global growth. We would feel comfortable accumulating more MTUM, SPHB, and IXC. RYH, ITA, KIE, XME, and EWA are holds. We are closing our VNQ trade.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Balance Sheet Unwind Begins

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Balance sheet unwind begins in October. Fed on track to raise rates again in December.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Existing Home Sales Decline

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Mortgage application also drop. But architecture billings rise. Freight activity picks up. CEOs maintain a positive outlook for the economy. Most reports were impacted by the back-to-back hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Decline

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Mortgage application also drop. But architecture billings rise. Freight activity picks up. CEOs maintain a positive outlook for the economy. Most reports were impacted by the back-to-back hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Aetna Inc. (AET)

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Aetna is on a BUY rating for the short, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. AET has a top decile price momentum ranking and favorable relative strength compared to the market, Health Care sector, and Managed Health Care subindustry. Analyst sentiment has become more pessimistic, but recently earnings estimates have been rising.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Europe Factor Strategy Update

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No Factor Recommendation Changes this Month. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Christian Dior, Adidas, Unilever, Axa, DnB, Deutsche Post, SAP, BASF. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Mondi, International Consolidated Airlines Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Bullish Sentiment Charts

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Most sentiment/valuation indicators show high risks, but there are important offsets.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Focus on U.S. Fiscal Health

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The shift of U.S. budget and debt ceiling risks to yearend does not change the longer-term outlook of a deteriorating fiscal position. The Fed's normalization plans could weigh on the budget in the next few years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Housing Starts Slip, But Permits Rebound

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Import prices rise. Current account deficit widens. Equipment leasing and finance confidence eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts Slip, But Permits Rebound

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Import prices rise. Current account deficit widens. Equipment leasing and finance confidence eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

European Corporate Credit Looking Tired

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For investment grade corporates, the U.S. is looking more attractive than Europe. In the high yield space, Europe continues to outperform the U.S. Within Europe, we recommend moving up in quality.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Was That the Correction? Five Stats to Consider.

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To date, the fall correction is among the smallest on record. Regardless of whether another pullback eclipses this one, it should be viewed in the context of an uptrend. Watch the Fed and earnings growth for the end of the cyclical bull.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

What to Watch for Confirmation on Sterling

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Near-term GBP technicals have improved after last week's rally. The fundamental picture remains mixed at best. We highlight signals to watch from a tactical standpoint.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Energy is Finally Rising from the Ashes

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USO and XLE have confirmed relative strength that we noticed in IXC two weeks ago. Sentiment conditions suggest that there may be further room to rally. We're watching upstream-tracking funds for further confirmation and continue to have a tactical trade on for IXC.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Confidence Drops

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Empire services activity moderates. Port data points to a wider trade gap.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Builder Confidence Drops

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Empire services activity moderates. Port data points to a wider trade gap.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Blame it on Mother Nature

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The hard-economic data on employment and real retail sales is not confirming all the optimism from Main Street and Wall Street.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Most Bullish Trend Charts

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Trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Hurricanes Weigh on Economic Data

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Today's economic reports showed a negative impact on retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment from hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Given the timing of the storms, the impact will linger through September, but we expect a rebound in economic activity in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Hurricanes Weigh on Economic Data

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Today's economic reports showed a negative impact on retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment from hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Given the timing of the storms, the impact will linger through September, but we expect a rebound in economic activity in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Key Chart for the Fed

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Are the risks of a financial bubble worth the rewards of a wealth effect?

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Do Low Spreads = Low Returns?

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Although corporate valuations remain rich and fund liquidity is low, none of the signs we would expect to see for a sustained decline in credit are present now.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Sector and Industry Performance After the Costliest Weather Disasters

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We look at sector and industry performance after the eight costliest weather disaster years since 1985; 2017 may become the second-costliest year on record. Technology and Industrials showed the best performance 12 months after the costliest disaster events while Utilities and Telecom struggled. We created a Weather Disaster Portfolio that we would expect to outperform over the next 12 months based on performance around prior costly weather disasters.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Some CPI Inflation, Thanks to Shelter

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Budget deficit widens. Consumer comfort pulls back. Jobless claims impacted by Harvey and Irma.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Some CPI Inflation, Thanks to Shelter

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Budget deficit widens. Consumer comfort pulls back. Jobless claims impacted by Harvey and Irma.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Emerging Markets Indicator Update

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Credit spreads have tightened to post-crisis lows. Currencies remain generally attractive relative to the USD and EUR. Equities continue to appear attractive on a relative basis.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Shouldn't Mid-Caps be in Our ETF AA Model?

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A periodic table of annual returns shows that mid-caps have been the best performer in the cap spectrum. However, for tactical plays, focusing on small versus large makes sense.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Secular Bull Update - More Normal, More Active?

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Normalization signs include diminishing correlations. Watch for more inflows to active funds than passive. Also watch for equity mutual fund inflows to increase relative to bond fund inflows.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Global Recession Risk Remains Minimal

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Our favorite global economic indicators and reports are pointing to minimal recession risk and a resumption of strong economic growth trends.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Producer Prices Edge Up

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Mortgage applications jump. K.C. Fed labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Producer Prices Edge Up

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Mortgage applications jump. K.C. Fed labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Absolute vs. Relative Valuations

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I compare absolute vs. relative valuations. I think risks outweigh rewards.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Examining Seasonal Tendencies

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NDR's website contains an interactive tool and pre-canned reports on seasonality. The Seasonality Tool plots absolute or relative seasonal performance on individual data series including economic metrics, asset classes, sectors, and stocks. Market, sector, ETF, and factor seasonality reports provide cross-sectional comparisons of the seasonal tendencies for each month within the chosen area.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Introducing the Global Yield Curve Composites

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We introduce expanded country coverage in BMS_15. Report provides yield curve composite readings for eight countries, including all of the G7.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Remains High

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CFO optimism also strong. JOLTS show labor market continues to tighten. Manpower hiring plans steady. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Remains High

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CFO optimism also strong. JOLTS show labor market continues to tighten. Manpower hiring plans steady. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Oil - Hurricanes Hit the Data

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Recent hurricanes have skewed crude oil inventory data. Market-based indicators continue to strengthen.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

Small-Cap Earnings Often Non-Existent. What to Do About It.

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Aggregating earnings to the index level requires many assumptions. Small-cap P/Es vary widely depending on those assumptions. Small-cap earnings can still be useful indicators. Currently, they show small-caps are modestly overvalued on an absolute basis and are unfavorable relative to large-caps.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Volume Precedes Price

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Volume demand has weakened, but is still above supply.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Growth Leading the Way & a Few Other Ways to Play It

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The current macro environment favors Growth over Value. Our ETF AA Model portfolio has a heavy weighting in QQQ, while several of our tactical ideas are also Growth-oriented. A few other ideas from our ETF Screener are EEMV, PSJ, and EWA. We are opening a tactical call on EWA today.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Wholesale Inventories Rise

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Wholesale used vehicle prices continue to climb.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Wholesale Inventories Rise

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Wholesale used vehicle prices continue to climb.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Consumer Skepticism Stuff

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A lot of consumption appears to be debt driven. Vehicle and new home sales have stalled.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - September 2017

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Considering sector allocation changes to implement Commodity over Consumer and Growth over Value themes. We look at which industries are showing a significant correlation to Russell 1000 Growth and Value indices.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Nonfarm Productivity Revised Up, Pushing ULC Down

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Jobless claims surge, due to Harvey. Consumer comfort slips. OECD U.S. CLI steady. Beige Book shows modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Nonfarm Productivity Revised Up, Pushing ULC Down

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Jobless claims surge, due to Harvey. Consumer comfort slips. OECD U.S. CLI steady. Beige Book shows modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Two More Charts in Support of the ETF AA Model & Another Near "Buy" from ETF Sentiment

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Our ETF AA Model has produced strong risk-adjusted returns and also taken much smaller drawdown than the benchmark. We introduce two new charts to show these relationships. Additionally, our ETF Speculation Index recently gave a "near buy" signal. The last one was bullish for equities.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Recovers

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Trade deficit widens slightly. Weekly retail sales and mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Recovers

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Trade deficit widens slightly. Weekly retail sales and mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Risks Rising for Restaurants

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Sagging demand, excess capacity, deteriorating pricing power, and rising costs are pressuring restaurant gross margins. Companies without margin-enhancing initiatives are vulnerable to further underperformance if costs continue to rise. We will watch for further deterioration in fundamentals and broader capital market weakness before becoming bearish but the group should be considered at-risk and on watch for a downgrade to underweight.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

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Gilead Sciences is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. GILD is showing favorable reward/risk based upon forward P/E. Relative strength looks favorable compared to the broad market, Health Care sector, and Biotechnology industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

August Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Consumers are excessively optimistic on the economy and the stock market. Presidential Approval does not confirm.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Back in Growth Mode

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Shifting to favoring Growth from neutral on a tactical basis. Technical confirmation, consistent model readings, and upcoming earnings deceleration favor Growth. The biggest risks are the yield curve, commodity prices, and FANG weakness. Growth's secular uptrend remains intact.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Reinitiating the Long SEK Trade

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We are reopening our long SEK vs. USD trade with a 3-month view. Technicals remain positive, with short-term model readings particularly strong. Valuations and inflation dynamics remain favorable, on balance.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Adding Three Ideas to Our ETF Portfolio - Metals & Mining, Insurers, and Global Energy

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XME and IXC are showing improvement in relative strength, coming from a low base. Sentiment is becoming pessimistic on KIE while seasonal trends are lining up for a rally. All three of these funds should benefit from stronger global economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Light Vehicle Sales Decline

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Capex orders rise, trends improve. Employment trends solid. NYC services activity pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Light Vehicle Sales Decline

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Capex orders rise, trends improve. Employment trends solid. NYC services activity pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CoCo Monsters and Cryptocurrencies

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CoCo bonds have been on fire. As long as fundamentals remain favorable, yield-seeking investors might want to consider CoCos. We introduce a chart of the Bitcoin indexes.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Indicator with Near Perfect Track Record Predicts Decline?

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Stocks above 200-day moving average have deteriorated, but our own moving average studies on Big Mo Tape, and our Moving Average Model remain on buy signals.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Economy Gets a Second Wind

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After showing signs of leveling off earlier this year, the global manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in six years, making a broad-based comeback within both developed and emerging markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Soft Employment Report, But No Change In Underlying Trends

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ISM factory activity up significantly. Construction spending declines. Consumer sentiment off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Soft Employment Report, But No Change In Underlying Trends

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ISM factory activity up significantly. Construction spending declines. Consumer sentiment off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Questions and Answers - Macro Outlook Still the Same but...

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Some questions and answers on Macro - still mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Gold Breakout, Dollar Breakdown, Regional Reallocation

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After gold breakout and market recovery, stay aligned with uptrends. Dollar breakdown supports regional allocation changes. Downgrading Europe ex. U.K. to underweight and Japan to marketweight. Increasing allocation to Emerging Markets, U.S., and Pacific ex. Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Personal Income and Spending Rise Amid Low Inflation

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Consumer comfort highest since 2001. Jobless claims and layoff announcements remain low. Regionals point to slight moderation in factory activity. Pending home sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income and Spending Rise Amid Low Inflation

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Consumer comfort highest since 2001. Jobless claims and layoff announcements remain low. Regionals point to slight moderation in factory activity. Pending home sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

China Indicator Update

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Our indicators remain constructive on Chinese equities. Technicals continue to lean bullish, although some indicators are at testing points. Valuations are less appealing, but the trend in realized earnings is favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

A Look Ahead at Seasonality & a New Supporting Chart for the ETF AA Model

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In the upcoming three months, Tech is a standout for positive seasonality, while commodity equities have historically been weak. We also introduce a new chart in support of the tactical asset allocation offered in our ETF AA Model.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is Volatility Structurally Lower?

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Improvements in information technologies have reduced uncertainties and lowered risk premiums. But there are other factors, such as QE and regulations, that have also contributed to a reduction in volatility.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Q2 GDP Revised Strongly Up, Profits Rebound

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ADP private payrolls jump, but online labor demand weakens. Mortgage applications edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q2 GDP Revised Strongly Up, Profits Rebound

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ADP private payrolls jump, but online labor demand weakens. Mortgage applications edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

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EMCOR Group is on a long-term BUY rating. EME is more than one standard deviation oversold and sentiment is approaching pessimistic levels. Analysts have been revising their earnings estimates higher and getting more bullish.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Questions and Partial Answers - DAVIS265 vs. S574A, Hours Worked Valuation, and Russell 2000 Valuation

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Some questions and answers on valuations and sentiment - mixed to negative.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Hurricane Harvey

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Not much conclusion in stock market on hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Another Strong Earnings Season. How Many More?

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Mid-cycle earnings recoveries have lasted two years, on average. The current cycle began in 3Q16. Stocks have rallied during early stages, but have struggled once the y/y growth rate has peaked. The NDR Earnings Model remains bullish, but history suggests risks will rise in 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Increases Again

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Existing home prices and weekly retail sales rise. But state leading indexes show risk of slower economic growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Increases Again

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Existing home prices and weekly retail sales rise. But state leading indexes show risk of slower economic growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

China to the Rescue?

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Recent financial developments suggest something more positive may be going on in China. Stocks and base metals are making new highs. Corporate spreads have fallen. If government bond yields close above 3.70%, we will consider reducing our bond duration and upgrading EM debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Update - Remaining Aggressive Through Seasonal Weakness

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This month, the model recommends 86% equity exposure despite one more month of historically weak seasonality. Our trend indicators remain positive and the global economic expansion remains intact, leading to the overweight allocation. Within equities, clients should favor the international trade and the Tech sector continues to be influential in our weightings.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Widens Slightly

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Texas manufacturing near steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Widens Slightly

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Texas manufacturing near steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Does iPhone 8 Timing Matter?

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We look at Apple performance around prior iPhone announcements.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Questions and Partial Answers - GE, Russell 2000, and Stocks Above 200 SMA

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Some questions and answers on the trend, which still leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Durable Goods Orders Volatile, But Momentum Positive

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An increase in core business orders bodes well for capex growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Volatile, But Momentum Positive

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An increase in core business orders bodes well for capex growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Seeing the Forest From the Trees

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A look at labor force and productivity growth suggests growth potential is limited.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Five Reasons We Cannot Get Too Bearish on the Consumer (Part 2).

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Consumer Discretionary should be considered on watch for a downgrade but we have not yet been able to pull the trigger. Good performance from mega-caps, improving retail sales, stable operating margins, weak commodity trends, stabilizing breadth, and mixed relative strength trends are all reasons we have not been able to get bearish on the sector. The most important of these factors, in our view, has been the support from the MACH (McDonalds, Amazon, Comcast and Home Depot) group. Should these mega-caps underperform, the whole sector will most likely underperform.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Existing Home Sales Decline

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But consumer comfort reaches highest level since 2001. Jobless claims remain low. K.C. Fed manufacturing strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Decline

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But consumer comfort reaches highest level since 2001. Jobless claims remain low. K.C. Fed manufacturing strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

European Country Sector Fundamental Update

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Our fundamental country/sector report remains constructive on European equities. The Consumer Discretionary sector in key markets has seen a sharp positive shift in expectations. British and Swedish Consumer Discretionary sector valuations appear attractive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Buy, Sell, or Hold ETF Strategy Recommendations

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MTUM and ITA currently look attractive as buys. They are showing strong relative strength and are not yet overbought. We are putting stop-losses on SPHB, VNQ, and RYH. These three funds have been weak in the last month.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

What We Should Have Learned from the 1990s

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Former Fed Chair Greenspan wrestled with many of the same issues the current Fed is debating. Rising unit labor costs can be offset by decreases in other costs or lower margins. Once again, wealth creation is driving growth above its longer-run sustainable levels. We could have another couple of years before we need to worry about inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Should the ECB be Worried About the Euro?

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The ECB expressed concerns about the rising euro and its possible dampening effect on inflation. Our analysis suggests it should have little impact. But that doesn't mean that inflation risks aren't subsiding.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

State Coincident Indexes Show Spreading Weakness...

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...But Markit flash U.S. PMIs suggest stronger growth, led by services. New home sales slide. Architecture billings ease. Commercial real estate optimism wanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Spreading Weakness...

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...But Markit flash U.S. PMIs suggest stronger growth, led by services. New home sales slide. Architecture billings ease. Commercial real estate optimism wanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Active vs. Passive Update - Plus Was the Crowd Right Again?

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Our proxy shows flows into passive funds are slowing and correlations are falling, despite a lot of crowd optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Companies with Greater Long-Term Sales Growth

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Factor Changes: Replacing Long-Term EPS Growth Estimate with Long-Term Sales Growth. Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term Sales Growth. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline Group, Berkshire Hathaway, UnitedHealth Group, Celgene, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

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D.R. Horton, Inc. is on a BUY rating for the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. DHI is showing positive relative strength to the broad market, sector, and group. Earnings expectations have been trending higher and the stock is trading for under 12x forward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Energy - All Risk No Reward (Part 3)

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So far in 2017, energy equities have lagged crude oil prices. We look at specific stocks and industries poised to rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Gains Moderate

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Richmond Fed activity largely steady. Weekly retail sales choppy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Gains Moderate

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Richmond Fed activity largely steady. Weekly retail sales choppy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Third Time a Charm? Growth Stocks Trying to Eclipse June Highs.

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Growth is making a third run at breaking above its June 7 high relative to Value. Our models are mixed, so we remain tactically neutral. Eventually, we expect Growth to break out. Until then, focus on Technology, stocks with high cash/assets ratios, and stocks with high sales growth.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

The Toolbox

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We present a summary of our most important fixed income charts and reports. There are no changes to our regional recommendations.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

CFNAI Indicates Trend Growth

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Index also shows limited inflationary pressures.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Indicates Trend Growth

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Index also shows limited inflationary pressures.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

GLD is "Rising from the Ashes" - What Does It Mean?

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GLD is climbing our relative strength rankings from a low position, joining a list of funds dominated by bonds. We see the strength in gold as another knock against the reflationary trade, despite gold's tendency to be an inflation hedge.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

1987 Rhyme?

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Trend evidence continues to lean bullish, but there are some similarities to the 1987 market.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment Charges Up

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Port of Long Beach data suggests widening trade deficit.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Charges Up

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Port of Long Beach data suggests widening trade deficit.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Consumer Underneath the Headlines

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Booming job growth, modestly higher wages, and surging confidence make the consumer look good. I present some contrary signs of skepticism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Equities and Gold - Go with the Uptrends

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VIX spike marked another opportunity to buy global equities. U.S. Dollar trading range more likely but not long-term advance. Long-term gold outlook remains favorable - watching Gold Watch report.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production Up, Despite Weak Vehicles Output

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LEI points to faster growth in 2H 2017. Philly Fed factory activity eases slightly. Jobless claims continue to decline. Consumer economic expectations rise. E-commerce up strongly. Freight activity decelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up, Despite Weak Vehicles Output

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LEI points to faster growth in 2H 2017. Philly Fed factory activity eases slightly. Jobless claims continue to decline. Consumer economic expectations rise. E-commerce up strongly. Freight activity decelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Five Reasons We Cannot Get Too Bearish On the Consumer (Part 1)

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We remain vigilant for signs of a weakening consumer given Fed tightening and the age of the current expansion. However, solid employment growth, high household net worth, favorable consumer credit conditions, and consistent discretionary spending make it difficult for us to get too bearish. Lack of attractive areas outside of consumer spending such as commodities and business and government spending, makes the consumer attractive on a relative basis. We cannot yet say we are in a late-cycle, bearish consumer period.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

How Do We Think About Our Satellite Positions

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Satellite, or tactical, calls are more mean reversion/contrarian than our core positions. We attempt to keep drawdowns to a minimum in both our core and satellite portfolios.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Upgrading ABS to Overweight

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We are upgrading ABS to overweight. ABS have performed relatively well this year, posting excess returns, entering a seasonally favorable period. Consumer fundamentals support continued spread compression.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Answering Your Questions About NDR's Global Recession Probability Model

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We answer client questions about one of NDR's most popular models. The latest reading in the global recession model is consistent with an expansion reaching mid cycle. Equities tend to outperform when the recession model is declining.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Sentiment Extremes

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Short dollar trade is looking crowded. Short-term equity sentiment at 80-day low, while longer-term indicators remain optimistic. SKEW, which measures the cost of downside protection, at a 75-day high. Further downside likely to be limited with short-term indicators at extremes and long-term tape still strong.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Sag

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Housing affordability drops. Mortgage applications little changed. Empire services activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Sag

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Housing affordability drops. Mortgage applications little changed. Empire services activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment - Dollar, Euro, Gold, Bonds, and Stocks

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Dollar sentiment looks excessively bearish, while stocks look stretched on the upside intermediate-term, but oversold short-term.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Lower Volatility

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Factor Changes: Europe ex. U.K. adding Lower Volatility. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Luxottica Group, Michelin, Unilever, Axa, DnB, Ryanair, SAP, BASF. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Booker Group, Ferguson, Intertek Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Retail Sales Jump

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Import price inflation remains soft. Builder confidence recovers. Empire factory activity surges. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Retail Sales Jump

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Import price inflation remains soft. Builder confidence recovers. Empire factory activity surges. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Crisis Events and Economic Growth

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The near-term economic impact of crisis events could be negligible. Recession probability models do not indicate a downturn in the next 12 months. Economic momentum remains a tailwind for the stock market.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

A Buying Opportunity in Korea

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We see the recent sell-off in Korean equities as a buying opportunity. Technicals and fundamentals remain favorable. The monetary and fiscal backdrop remains accommodative to markets.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Volatility Spike Illuminates Breadth Differences

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Low volatility in large-cap benchmarks masked breadth deterioration in small-caps. Favor large-caps on a tactical basis and secular basis. We are introducing a Small/Large Secular Watch Report.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Two Charts That May Determine Our Next Move

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Our dollar-adjusted LMEX Index is on the cusp of breaking a major downtrend line. Yet, yields in China haven't budged. If a breakout in the dollar-adjusted base metals index is confirmed by a breakout in Chinese yields, we will consider reducing our exposure to bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Energy - All Risk No Reward (Part 2)

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With the exception of Permian E&Ps, the market seems to be re-pricing energy equities lower.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

High Beta Going the Wrong Way

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High beta fund, SPHB, had a rough week last week. If the fund continues to underperform, we will soon close out our trade recommendation. SJNK now has a dividend yield nearly matching JNK and exceeding HYG. The fund has had lower volatility but similar performance over the past year. For clients looking to add high yield exposure, we would favor SJNK.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Big Mo's Lean Bullish, but Overbought with Deteriorating Momentum

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Trend evidence still leans bullish, but looks stretched on the upside.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

CPI Inflation Is A No-Show

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Budget deficit widens and heads for a fiscal showdown in the fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CPI Inflation Is A No-Show

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Budget deficit widens and heads for a fiscal showdown in the fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Health Care is Complicated!

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Now that "Trumpcare" is off the front page, I want to try to provide some health care perspective.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The Run-Up in Profits, and Other Reasons to Let Profits Run

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With global advance well intact, seasonal weakness is buying opportunity. Profit margin improvement among numerous bullish influences. Divergences would be warnings, especially from highest correlating sectors and risk-on indices.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - August 2017

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Q3 sector returns linked to Q2 earnings surprises, revisions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Producers Afraid to Raise Prices

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Also, Consumer Comfort jumps to 16-year high and jobless claims show continued tight labor markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Producers Afraid to Raise Prices

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Also, Consumer Comfort jumps to 16-year high and jobless claims show continued tight labor markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Currency Keeping the EAFE Trade Afloat

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Over the past three months, the euro has delivered all of the gains to many EAFE equity ETFs. Some shorter-term indicators argue that the dollar may rally but longer-term evidence is more mixed. Regardless, emerging markets seem like a better play than EAFE due to underlying equity strength and not purely currency appreciation.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Credit, Complacency, and Leverage

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The VIX and MOVE have recently fallen to record lows, keeping downward pressure on credit spreads. Low spreads give the illusion of liquidity. Low vol also encourages the use of leverage. Reversals of these conditions can be rapid.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

What's the Cure for Faster Growth? Being Happy!

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We evaluate global measures of subjective happiness and overall economic well-being. Gauging human happiness and well-being is extremely important as it can dictate political movements and social unrest, thereby having long-term implications on economic growth and the investment environment. Our analysis confirms that happier countries and those with the sufficient social foundations tend to grow faster.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Nonfarm Productivity Remains Sluggish

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Also, wholesale inventories rise, labor market conditions strengthen, and mortgage apps edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Nonfarm Productivity Remains Sluggish

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Also, wholesale inventories rise, labor market conditions strengthen, and mortgage apps edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Short-Term Sentiment and Longer-Term Valuation - Both Suggest Excessive Optimism

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Valuation and sentiment show risks. Where relative valuation was helpful, and where it was misleading.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Navigating the Stock Screener Interface

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The NDR Stock Screener contains over 200 metrics that can be used for relative or absolute screens. Geographical coverage includes North America, Developed Europe, Developed Asia, and much of Emerging Asia. Schedule saved screen email reminders and store results as ticker lists for use in other NDR tools.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Job Openings Surge, But Labor Supply Lacks The Skills to Fill Them

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NFIB small business optimism rebounds. OECD U.S. CLI points again to below-trend growth. Weekly retail sales boosted by back-to-school.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Job Openings Surge, But Labor Supply Lacks The Skills to Fill Them

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NFIB small business optimism rebounds. OECD U.S. CLI points again to below-trend growth. Weekly retail sales boosted by back-to-school.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Can Strong Breadth Rebuff Seasonal Weakness?

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Big Mo Tape entered August in its bullish zone for only ninth time since 1980. Fall corrections have been shallower when breadth has been strong. Earnings momentum could be reaching unsustainable levels. Sentiment slightly less optimistic.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

European Sovereign Positioning

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We remain neutral on Italian debt but see potential for a short-term trade.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Energy - All Risk No Reward?

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Oil's fundamental data remains strong. Now, short-term technical indicators are improving as well. Despite much-hyped "efficiency gains", energy equities have underperformed oil prices this year.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Energy Equity Funds Vastly Underperforming the Commodity Itself

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Energy equity ETFs have not kept pace with the ascent in oil itself from the June low. That is especially true of OIH which has underperformed the broad market. Without a true sentiment washout and improvement in relative strength, we continue to shy away from owning energy equity funds.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Used vehicle wholesale values continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Used vehicle wholesale values continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Moving Averages Strong, but New Highs Refuse to Confirm

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Trend evidence bullish, but some signs of fading momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

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