Recent Publications

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Stronger Activity

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But existing home sales slip.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Stronger Activity

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But existing home sales slip.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Cycle Composite, Anniversary Dates, and Big Mo Composite

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Cycle Composite on alert, but evidence does not confirm.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

A Look at Yield Investments When Rates Have Risen

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We look at yield-oriented ETFs over the last 11 times, dating back to 2004, interest rates rose enough to cause a -10% correction in TLT. International dividend, convertibles, and high yield bonds have been good places to be. Investment-grade corporates and Utilities have been weak. Preferreds, REITs, and solar have mixed records, often marching more to the beat of the prevailing fundamentals.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Economic Update -- Some Good and Bad News

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Macro evidence for the economy remains mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is Consumer Staples the Most Hated Sector?

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We look for signs of extreme pessimism toward Consumer Staples.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

A Big Test for the Dollar

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USD testing 2016 lows -- success or failure will influence asset classes and regional indices. Bearish outcome likely, providing more support for gold and emerging markets. Economic growth a greater influence than rate differentials.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Is Wage Growth Really Low?

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At 100% of benchmark duration, our position is in near-perfect alignment with our major models. But every day we struggle with what the next move will be. We can make a decent case for either. Four different indicators show wage pressures are on the rise, which could result in higher yields later in the year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

New All-Time Highs Fail to Excite Investors

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Yesterday's new all-time high did not push sentiment to an optimistic extreme. Above average returns after similar periods historically. June trading range the tightest in over 50 years. Short-& long-end of VIX curve set all-time lows on Friday. These are characteristics of a strong bull market. Momentum strategies tend to outperform as a bull market matures. This cycle is no different.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Time to Buy Gold & Gold Miners?

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Longer-term trend evidence remains uninspiring for GLD and GDX. In the short-run, there may be some mean reversion potential, especially on a relative basis. Watch interest rates, even more so than inflation expectations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Leading Indicators Up Sharply

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Jobless claims slide. But consumer economic expectations deteriorate. Philly Fed factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Leading Indicators Up Sharply

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Jobless claims slide. But consumer economic expectations deteriorate. Philly Fed factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is Global Monetary Policy Really Tightening?

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Despite tightening by the Fed and the BoC, global central banks in aggregate are more accommodative than they have been in years. Our analysis shows that this should continue to be positive for equities.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Rebound

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Architecture billings rise. Mortgage applications pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Rebound

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Architecture billings rise. Mortgage applications pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

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JetBlue Airways is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. JBLU's price momentum ranking recently spiked higher. Earnings estimates have been rising and trailing P/E showing favorable reward/risk.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Adjusting Factor Recommendations

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Factor Changes: Europe ex. U.K. removing Interest Coverage; U.K. Replacing Earnings Revisions with Gross Profit/Assets. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, ING Groep, DnB ASA, Koninklijke Philips, STMicroelectronics NV. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Ashtead Group, Intertek Group, Mondi.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Showing Potential Sentiment Extremes, or Simply Misleading

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A ratio of two different investments can show sentiment extremes, but can also be misleading.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Builder Confidence Declines

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Import prices continue to soften. Empire services activity weakens. Weekly retail sales fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Confidence Declines

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Import prices continue to soften. Empire services activity weakens. Weekly retail sales fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Positioning

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We have made only one regional allocation change this year. We particularly disagree with the model's overweight on Europe. Our positions are closer to the behavior of the markets.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

A Secular Trend That's Gaining Traction

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The secular downtrend in small-caps relative to large-caps is becoming more established. We analyze five drivers that should accelerate or reverse large-cap relative strength. To mitigate small-cap headwinds, diversify with mid-caps and small-caps with bigger market caps, higher quality, lower volatility, positive momentum, and cheaper valuations.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Emerging Markets Powering Ahead

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Emerging market funds have been rallying strongly, aided by relatively low longer-term interest rates and a weak U.S. dollar. Most composite EM funds look stretched based on our mean reversion score. Low volatility options, and EM consumer do not look as stretched. Despite a powerful move higher, EM internet & e-commerce is also not yet overbought due to a very strong long-term uptrend.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Empire Manufacturing and Outlook Cool

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Individual activity indexes show softer demand in the region.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Empire Manufacturing and Outlook Cool

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Individual activity indexes show softer demand in the region.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trend Evidence Bullish, but a Couple of Sell Signals - Plus More on Dollar-Cost Averaging

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Trend evidence leans bullish with a few cautious alerts. More on dollar-cost averaging.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Up, But Consumer Engine Sputters?

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Today's economic releases reflected strengthening industrial production, but weakening retail sales, CPI inflation, and consumer sentiment. As a result, the GDPNow Model forecast for Q2 real GDP growth was revised down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up, But Consumer Engine Sputters?

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Today's economic releases reflected strengthening industrial production, but weakening retail sales, CPI inflation, and consumer sentiment. As a result, the GDPNow Model forecast for Q2 real GDP growth was revised down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What Is the Fed Thinking?

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Hard to see consumer price inflation, but some of the Fed see asset inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What to Buy for the Capex Theme

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Without an infrastructure plan or rising oil, expect current leadership in Capex to remain the same. Internet and software has been leading in Tech and Aerospace & Defense has been leading Industrials.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Also Lower for Longer - VIX and Valuations

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Rising interest rates not a threat to market advance. Correlations will indicate when that is changing. Watching rates, earnings, valuations, and implied volatilities of stocks and bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Is Health Care Cheap Enough?

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Health Care may only be cheap if Trumpcare does not materially lift the uninsured rate.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

PPI Inflation Continues to Ease

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Consumer comfort drops. Jobless claims still low, but composite labor market condition indicators off slightly. Freight activity rebounds sharply. Beige Book shows continued slight-to-moderate expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Continues to Ease

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Consumer comfort drops. Jobless claims still low, but composite labor market condition indicators off slightly. Freight activity rebounds sharply. Beige Book shows continued slight-to-moderate expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is Reaching Mid Cycle Negative for Global Equities and the Economy?

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An assessment of our favorite global economic indicators point to stable and strong growth with continued signs that the expansion is reaching mid cycle. Our analysis shows that being at the mid-way point in an expansion cycle has historically been good for both global equities and the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Pakistan: Look Past the Political Noise

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Recent political news flow and a devaluation have weighed on Pakistani equities. A growing current account deficit and expensive currency remain long-term concerns. We nevertheless continue to see opportunity, and would buy on weakness with a 12-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Is Bond Sentiment Bullish?

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Bond market positioning was not as bullish as some analysts have said. We got stopped out of our yield curve flattener trade on Tuesday.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Getting Sentimental About Your Investment Process

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NDR has sentiment charts and data covering various areas including asset classes, economies, ETFs, and stocks. Sentiment indicators can be used for tactical positioning, risk management, and timing trades. They usually work better by staying in line with the crowd until sentiment reaches an extreme and then reverses, at which time it pays to take a contrary stance.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

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Expeditors International of Washington is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Ranks. EXPD's stock price is trading near an all-time high. Analysts' ratings improving from most pessimistic levels in over ten years.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Normalized P/E vs. Interest Rate Adjusted, and Potential S&P at 2000 Price/Sales Level

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Valuations appear stretched. Adjusting for interest rates has a mixed record.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Cools Off

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JOLTS show stronger hiring. Wholesale inventories rebound. Weekly retail sale strengthen from a year ago.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Cools Off

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JOLTS show stronger hiring. Wholesale inventories rebound. Weekly retail sale strengthen from a year ago.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Modestly Downgrading Our U.S. Inflation Outlook

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We downgrade our 2017 inflation outlook to 2.0% from 2.1% originally and see a further downside risk. We discuss the recent trends of CPI components and structural forces that could keep downward pressure on prices this year and in the longer-term. Even so, we expect the Fed to continue with policy normalization, raise rates again in September, and start the balance sheet reduction in October.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Is the Labor Market a Threat to the Stock Market?

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Jobs market not stoking inflation. Labor costs not immediate threat to earnings, but watch late 2017 and 2018. Lack of sales, investment, and productivity growth long-term threat.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Bunds Break Out and What it Means

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Risk layering concerns were validated last week causing longer-dated German yields to break out of their trading ranges. Higher bund yields spilled over into other sovereign bond markets. European peripheral spreads came under pressure. The prospect of reduced bond buying helped steepen global yield curves.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

How to Play Japan

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There are 28 different funds to play Japanese stocks. We currently prefer currency-hedged alternatives. DXJ and DXJS, in particular, are the top plays on Japanese market strength and yen weakness.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Oil - A First Half to Forget

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Even a historic inventory report failed to push crude oil prices higher. We review oil's first half and look ahead to the second half.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Employment Trends Still Point To Solid Job Growth

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But OECD U.S. CLI slips again. Used vehicle wholesale prices continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Employment Trends Still Point To Solid Job Growth

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But OECD U.S. CLI slips again. Used vehicle wholesale prices continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

My So-Called Forecast

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Trend evidence remains bullish, but our cycle composite turns down in late summer. The cycle composite has a mixed record, but it has provided real value at some points.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Strong Job Gains with Little Wage Pressures

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We discuss the June Employment Report. We reaffirm our view that the Fed will raise rates again in September and start the balance sheet reduction in October.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Strong Job Gains with Little Wage Pressures

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We discuss the June Employment Report. We reaffirm our view that the Fed will raise rates again in September and start the balance sheet reduction in October.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sector Bubbles: An Applied Approach to Identifying Sector Bubbles and Avoiding Their Crashes

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Recent research has been able to key in on factors that can help give us insights into the life cycle of a bubble. We rely on these factors, or variations of them, to better characterize sector-level bubbles. We also build a composite model of factors to try to predict when these bubbles occur and when they burst. We find that by using the framework described in this paper, it is possible to better time extreme movements among sectors, resulting in reductions in the size of maximum drawdowns, therefore increasing returns and lowering risk.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Solutions Quarterly | Quarterly

Will QT Matter?

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Not much history on Quantitative Tightening, but I'm skeptical.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Services Activity Strengthens

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Most employment indicators point to a tighter market. Trade deficit narrows, but still a drag on Q2 growth. CEO confidence moderates. Consumer comfort off slightly. Mortgage apps mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Strengthens

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Most employment indicators point to a tighter market. Trade deficit narrows, but still a drag on Q2 growth. CEO confidence moderates. Consumer comfort off slightly. Mortgage apps mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Monthly Sector Update - July 2017

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We compare client second-half expectations with ours.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Diversifying Our Macro Exposures

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Our current positions represent a concentrated bet on a flattening yield curve and lower inflation expectations. We're diversifying our macro exposures by closing trades on HEZU, SCIF, and VDC while opening new positions in SPHB and ITA.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Where We Stand on the Yield Curve

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The yield curve has steepened in recent days. Nevertheless, a majority of our models remain in the flattening mode. If this changes, we will close out our flattening trade.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

More Earnings Momentum - Reviewing Revisions Globally

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Indicator developments continue to support bullish outlook. Positive earnings revision trend global in scope, supporting earnings, valuation outlook. Europe ex. U.K. has most revisions. We remain overweight along with EM and Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

The Economic Cost of Partisan Conflict

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High partisan conflict can weigh on investment and economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Light Vehicle Sales Continue to Decline

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Factory orders slide amid low oil prices. NYC services activity up, but revenues down. Weekly retail sales tick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Light Vehicle Sales Continue to Decline

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Factory orders slide amid low oil prices. NYC services activity up, but revenues down. Weekly retail sales tick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

June Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Most cyclical sentiment/valuation indicators suggest high risks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Expansion Remains Strong

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The latest global manufacturing PMIs have stabilized, but continued to indicate strong and broad growth trends. Developed markets continued outperform the emerging world. Within the developed world, we can owe quite a bit of its strength to Europe.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

First Half Benchmark Review: The Most Bullish Thing the Market Can Do Is Go Up

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Steady gains in stocks amid low vol. Growth sectors' strength in 1H stalled in June. Emerging markets strong despite commodity weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

ETF AA Model Quarterly Update - Return to Reflation

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The model carries over a 72% recommended equity exposure from last month. Within the equity portfolio, the model recommends upping exposure to international markets. Within fixed income, the model favors investment-grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

ISM Factory Activity Jumps

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Construction spending flat.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Factory Activity Jumps

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Construction spending flat.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Risk Layering, Risk Premiums, and the Most Important Chart of the Summer

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Maintain focus on the ECB and eurozone inflation. Risk layering is critical, as the major central banks take steps toward reducing monetary accommodation. Japan could outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

The So-Called Breadth Problem

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Trend evidence leans bullish, and daily A/D Line strong. Yet, other breadth measures are more questionable.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Personal Income Up, But Spending Soft

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Consumer sentiment up from mid-June. Broad-based improvement in regional factory activity. Cass Freight indexes also advance. But state leading indexes show weaker growth momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income Up, But Spending Soft

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Consumer sentiment up from mid-June. Broad-based improvement in regional factory activity. Cass Freight indexes also advance. But state leading indexes show weaker growth momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Does the Fall in Bond Yields Mean Recession Is on the Horizon?

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Falling bond yields may tell us a lot about core inflation and foreign yields, but, historically, have not been a great real GDP indicator.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Q1 GDP Revised Up, But Corporate Profits Revised Down

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Jobless claims still close to multi-decade lows. Consumer comfort eases to lowest in four months.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q1 GDP Revised Up, But Corporate Profits Revised Down

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Jobless claims still close to multi-decade lows. Consumer comfort eases to lowest in four months.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Gold Watch for Timing

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New Gold Watch report would reconfirm bullish outlook for gold. Sell-off may have ended, presenting another buying opportunity. Reflation trend supports long-term outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Up, Up, and Away on Cyclical Value?

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Financials and Energy are benefiting from extreme speculative positioning on bonds and oil, among other factors. We may soon enter trades in these areas within the ETF Strategy. SPHB is a fund we would consider to get exposure to both areas but remain a little more diversified.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Defying Interest Rate Gravity with Banks

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Trends for Banks remain poor. Macro, fundamentals, and sentiment are improving. We are becoming more bullish on Banks for the second half of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Time for TIPS?

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Although we are not worried about inflation getting out of hand in the near-term, long-term and value-oriented investors may still want to consider investing in TIPS at this time.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Where Are the Most Inflated Housing Markets in the World?

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We identify New Zealand, Australia, and Canada as the highest risk housing markets. These housing markets could potentially experience some reprieve if central bank interest rates rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

History as a Guide

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Pattern matching tool points to further upside for the dollar index over the next few years. However, recent weakness and a lack of extreme pessimism suggest the dollar could test lower end of multi-year range first. S&P 500 max drawdown of 2.8% in 1st half would be the 2nd smallest on record. History suggests 2nd half could continue to frustrate investors looking for a better entry point.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Narrows Slightly

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Pending home sales continue to decline. Mortgage applications pull back. NEMA confidence index slides again.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Narrows Slightly

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Pending home sales continue to decline. Mortgage applications pull back. NEMA confidence index slides again.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Not Fighting Price Momentum

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Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term EPS Growth Estimate. Selected Stocks Include: Home Depot, UnitedHealth Group, Celgene, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM)

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Sanderson Farms is on a BUY rating across the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. SAFM has top 20% profitability and valuation rankings. The stock continues to show favorable relative strength compared to the broad market, Staples sector, and Packaged Foods & Meats sub-industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Optimistic Social Mood

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Social mood optimism is the driver of the economy, the stock market, and election results. Still, too much of a good thing can set up poor results.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Shifting to Neutral on Russia

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We are downgrading our view on Russian equities to marketweight with a six- to 12-month view. A fully-priced OFZ market will likely see FX and equity correlations with oil rise. Expecting a devaluation, we would sell the ruble at current levels with a three-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Trends Higher

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Trends Higher

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Stock Market to Politicians: Keep Arguing

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The Philly Fed's Partisan Conflict Index is near a record high. Stocks have risen faster when the index has been elevated on an absolute basis and relative to the recent past.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Introducing Rich/Cheap Analysis for Global Yield Curves

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We introduce expanded country coverage in BMS_17. Report provides a snapshot of yields, yield changes, spreads, and rich/cheap analysis.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Solar Breakout & My Take on Thematic Funds

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TAN broke through resistance on Friday and has been a very strong performer of late. The fund is high beta and has traditionally received a tailwind from improving leading economic indicators. Several other large thematic ETFs have been top performers this year. The simplicity of a thematic ETF relative to smart beta or actively managed products make these attractive options.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Loss of Growth Momentum

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Durable goods orders decline, led by aircraft. Texas manufacturing moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Loss of Growth Momentum

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Durable goods orders decline, led by aircraft. Texas manufacturing moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Better Than Compounding Returns?

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Dollar-cost averaging and compounding long-term returns has, historically, been a "money making machine". Nevertheless, I continue to be a risk manager. Trend evidence still leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

New Home Sales Rise

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But Markit flash U.S. PMIs show loss of momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

New Home Sales Rise

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But Markit flash U.S. PMIs show loss of momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Profit Growth and Stock Prices

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Over the long run, there is a correlation between profits and stock prices. However, in the short-term, the record can be contrary to logic.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Lower for Longer ... A Lot Longer?

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Falling yields and rising earnings growth have improved relative valuations. Upgrading Japan to overweight, downgrading Pacific ex. Japan to underweight. Lower-for-longer bull market remains likely scenario.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth in 2H 2017

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FHFA house prices keep rising. Jobless claims up slightly. Consumer comfort slips. K.C. Fed factory activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth in 2H 2017

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FHFA house prices keep rising. Jobless claims up slightly. Consumer comfort slips. K.C. Fed factory activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold

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We are currently recommending VIG, VDC, HEZU, MTUM, RYH, SCIF, and VNQ for tactical trade ideas. The trends in VDC, MTUM, and RYH continue to impress. We're remaining patient and on the sidelines with Energy for now.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

For Technology, Watch This Indicator

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Earnings revision momentum has long been a key factor for Technology.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

The Macro Implications of the AMZN/WFM Deal

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Deals like this will continue to put downward pressure on prices and make it more difficult for central banks to achieve their inflation targets. Amazon could disrupt the restaurant business, which has been a leading job creator in this expansion. The risks to grocery competitors and restaurants should concern some owners of CRE and CMBS.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Should We Be Worried About China's Inverted Yield Curve?

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China's yield curve has inverted, but it may be due to a few one-off factors. Although we're not euphoric about Chinese economic prospects, growth should remain safely within China's goal of around 6.5% this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Rise

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Architecture billings and construction backlog rebound. State coincident indexes show continued expansion. Truck tonnage consistent with stronger Q2 growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Rise

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Architecture billings and construction backlog rebound. State coincident indexes show continued expansion. Truck tonnage consistent with stronger Q2 growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

MSCI Adds China A-Shares, Are China Funds a Buy?

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Some of the largest emerging market, Asia, and China-tracking ETFs utilize MSCI benchmarks for their underlying indices and the move by MSCI could potentially add demand to A-shares. However, China H-share tracking funds are overbought. China A-share tracking funds are not overbought but need to show relative strength improvement before we initiate a new position in our ETF Strategy.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Cirrus Logic, Inc. (CRUS)

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Cirrus Logic is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. CRUS has top 20% valuation, profitability, and price momentum rankings. Entering the week, overall sentiment was pessimistic and the stock was more than one standard deviation oversold near-term.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Seeking Companies with Favorable Free Cash Flow Valuations

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions, Interest Coverage. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Christian Dior, Zurich Insurance, Sanofi, Atlas Copco, Volvo, Sika. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Carnival, Persimmon, Standard Life, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, IMI, Mondi.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Passive vs. Active - Part 3

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Like growth vs. value, small caps vs. large caps, active vs. passive investing styles came in and out of favor. I believe we are near a turning point.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Current Account Deficit Widens Slightly

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S&L government tax revenues driven by housing appreciation. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Current Account Deficit Widens Slightly

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S&L government tax revenues driven by housing appreciation. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Growth Stocks Oversold, or Still Wildly Overbought?

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The recent decline in highflying FANGs somewhat relieved an overbought condition, but did not alter broader technical, macro, and valuation indicators. We are looking for a tactical reentry point into Growth, but do not expect a repeat of the first five months of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Risk Layering and the World's Central Banks

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Risk layering is a critical, but underappreciated concept in explaining extreme outcomes in financial and other asset markets. All the major central banks took steps toward reducing monetary accommodation this month. Policy risks could be additive or even multiplicative. Perhaps the ECB will reduce its asset purchases by another EUR20 billion to EUR40 billion a month in 2018 for another six to nine months. The yield curve could continue to flatten.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Oil - What Is Real?

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Oil technicals are weak and sentiment is in the dumps. Fundamentals continue to lean positive, but are becoming cloudy. We outline what would move us to downgrade our oil view.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Demand vs. Supply Volume

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Up versus down volume trends remain bullish on the cyclical market trend, but it appears we have seen peak momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Consumer sentiment backtracks. Empire state services activity and outlook moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Consumer sentiment backtracks. Empire state services activity and outlook moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What to Watch Now That the Fed Raised Rates

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The Fed raised rates for the fourth time, but other evidence of a hostile Fed is missing.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

2H Outlook - Global Economy Still on Solid Footing

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Most global leading indicators and broad measures of economic activity suggest that global growth should remain on solid footing through the second half of the year, thereby achieving our 2017 growth forecast of 3.4%. But upside potential is limited, as some indicators have peaked, likely due to a closing of the output gap. Several global risks have abated, but not entirely.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

"Tech Wreck"or Rebound? Recovery Likely

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Valuations do not support case for ongoing Technology sector weakness. Indicators far less extreme than in 2000. Watch for uptrend to resume.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Second Half U.S. Sectors Outlook

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We provide an update on our three key themes and what to watch in the second half.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production Flat

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Philly Fed factory activity still trending up. Empire manufacturing rebounds sharply. Builder confidence slips. Import price inflation softens. Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Flat

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Philly Fed factory activity still trending up. Empire manufacturing rebounds sharply. Builder confidence slips. Import price inflation softens. Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Playing the Current Inflation Regime

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Inflation and inflation expectations have been weakening of late. Government bonds, Utilities, and REITs are some of the more obvious plays. However, select emerging and European markets, as well as various Consumer-oriented areas in the U.S. also tend to outperform when inflation is weakening.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Fed Hikes Rates as it Prepares to Shrink Balance Sheet

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We reaffirm our call for a September rate hike. The Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet in Q4. The balance sheet won't normalize before 2021. Without fiscal stimulus, the Fed may be too optimistic on achieving its inflation objectives. The yield curve should continue to flatten.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Deconstructing Emerging Market ROE Trends

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Headline 2016 emerging market ROE figures remain a source of concern for investors. A DuPont analysis of country-level ROE suggest a more optimistic picture. China and Mexico stand out for favorable trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

CPI Inflation Continues to Soften

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Retail sales drop on weaker inflation and more cautious consumers. Business inventories decline. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CPI Inflation Continues to Soften

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Retail sales drop on weaker inflation and more cautious consumers. Business inventories decline. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Exploring Europe Via Dashboard

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The Europe Dashboard can help you identify both opportunities and risks within the region. It provides analysis of countries based upon macro, fundamental, sentiment, and technical data. Each card in the dashboard features a visually appealing aspect of NDR's weight-of-the-evidence approach, contains interactivity, and provides quick access to detailed information.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Q1 Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Asset allocation measures show most investors are pretty fully invested. Continued corporate buying is an offset.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Second Half U.S. Equity Outlook

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Correction risks increase in second half. Technicals say bull market intact. Raising S&P 500 yearend target to 2500

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Our 2H 2017 U.S. Growth Outlook - Measured Optimism

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Several composite leading indicators, soft data, and the strength of the labor market point to moderately faster growth in 2H 2017. We expect real GDP to increase 2.3% to 2.5% in 2017. Downside risks to the outlook include a debt limit standoff in the fall, increased economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical events.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Holds High

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CFO optimism also hot. Manpower employment outlook steady. PPI inflation eases, led by energy. Budget deficit widens. Weekly retail sales still soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Holds High

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CFO optimism also hot. Manpower employment outlook steady. PPI inflation eases, led by energy. Budget deficit widens. Weekly retail sales still soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

U.K., French Elections Mean Different Things to Bond Investors

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The increased uncertainty around Brexit should keep the Bank of England on hold. We look for further downward pressure on French sovereign spreads.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Should We Be Worried About Tech ETFs?

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Tech ETFs are overbought and overowned. New mean reversion sell signals are cause for concern. The immediate beneficiaries of sector rotation appear to be Financials and Energy, but we are not recommending these areas yet. Instead, we're recommending a tactical trade on VNQ, keeping a close eye on interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Down A Notch

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Economic growth remains below its long-term average.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Down A Notch

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Economic growth remains below its long-term average.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Magic of Compound Interest is Key, but Starting Point Important

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The very long-term trend for stocks is upward. Yet, for someone who is 49 hoping to retire at 65, the end results, even for such a considerable period, vary greatly depending on the starting point.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Wholesale Inventories Drop

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Housing affordability under pressure from rising prices. K.C. Fed's labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Wholesale Inventories Drop

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Housing affordability under pressure from rising prices. K.C. Fed's labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q1 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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High levels of debt can present high risks, particularly, as the Fed raises interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Dovish Draghi and the Most Important Global Macro Chart

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The ECB changed its forward guidance, but only to a modest degree, suggesting that the monetary policy outlook remains dovish. We review our most important global macro chart of the summer and showcase a key report to watch to gauge the chart's outlook. We also summarize why eurozone inflation has remained stubbornly low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Still the Reflation of 2017, Not the Deflation of 2007

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Gold strength, market breadth, earnings growth and other conditions suggest reflation theme intact. Resource sector earnings growth helping valuations. Valuations improving even as global benchmarks reach new highs.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - June 2017

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The good news is sector dispersion has returned. The bad news is identifying sector leadership remains difficult. 2017 is finally showing a leadership trend, mainly for Technology.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Consumer Comfort Down Slightly

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Jobless claims decline. Services revenues mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Comfort Down Slightly

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Jobless claims decline. Services revenues mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Playing the NDR Second Half Bond Outlook Through ETFs

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Our Macro team is overweight CMBS, investment-grade corporates, high yield, and TIPS. We go through our ETF picks to play each of these positions.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

The Fixed Income Outlook for the Rest of 2017

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We've backed off from building the bond bear case, but have not abandoned the thesis. We expect the curve to remain under pressure this summer. We will likely remain overweight credit for the remainder of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

CRE Conditions Improve

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Used vehicle wholesale prices surge. Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CRE Conditions Improve

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Used vehicle wholesale prices surge. Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Past Instances of "Lower for Longer" Advances

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Recent Global Focus made the case for a "Lower for Longer" scenario where market could grind higher without a breadth thrust. Past bull market advances without a breadth thrust came in 1988-1990, 1992-1997, and 2005-2007. Large-cap stocks with strong momentum have fared well in past "Lower for Longer" environments. 5% decline would set the stage for breadth thrust, a more pronounced rally, and more aggressive leadership.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Corning Incorporated (GLW)

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Corning is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. GLW has a top decile price momentum ranking and favorable relative strength. The stock trades for under 8x trailing earnings and has rising analyst earnings expectations.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

May Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cyclical sentiment indicators suggest too much optimism, but with uncertainty and political unease.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

How High Quality Is the Earnings Rebound?

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EPS rebound showing few signs of deterioration seen before previous major peaks. Estimates for 2H17 biggest risk. High valuations leave market vulnerable if earnings growth slows substantially.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

European Currencies: Choose the Continent over Britain

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We are downgrading our view on the GBP/USD to neutral with a three- to six-month view. Our indicators continue to favor European currencies over the dollar. We prefer EUR/USD to GBP/USD with a three- to six-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

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