Recent Publications

State Coincident Indexes Show Spreading Weakness...

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...But Markit flash U.S. PMIs suggest stronger growth, led by services. New home sales slide. Architecture billings ease. Commercial real estate optimism wanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Spreading Weakness...

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...But Markit flash U.S. PMIs suggest stronger growth, led by services. New home sales slide. Architecture billings ease. Commercial real estate optimism wanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Active vs. Passive Update - Plus Was the Crowd Right Again?

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Our proxy shows flows into passive funds are slowing and correlations are falling, despite a lot of crowd optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Companies with Greater Long-Term Sales Growth

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Factor Changes: Replacing Long-Term EPS Growth Estimate with Long-Term Sales Growth. Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term Sales Growth. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline Group, Berkshire Hathaway, UnitedHealth Group, Celgene, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

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D.R. Horton, Inc. is on a BUY rating for the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. DHI is showing positive relative strength to the broad market, sector, and group. Earnings expectations have been trending higher and the stock is trading for under 12x forward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Energy - All Risk No Reward (Part 3)

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So far in 2017, energy equities have lagged crude oil prices. We look at specific stocks and industries poised to rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Gains Moderate

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Richmond Fed activity largely steady. Weekly retail sales choppy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Gains Moderate

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Richmond Fed activity largely steady. Weekly retail sales choppy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Third Time a Charm? Growth Stocks Trying to Eclipse June Highs.

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Growth is making a third run at breaking above its June 7 high relative to Value. Our models are mixed, so we remain tactically neutral. Eventually, we expect Growth to break out. Until then, focus on Technology, stocks with high cash/assets ratios, and stocks with high sales growth.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

The Toolbox

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We present a summary of our most important fixed income charts and reports. There are no changes to our regional recommendations.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

CFNAI Indicates Trend Growth

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Index also shows limited inflationary pressures.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Indicates Trend Growth

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Index also shows limited inflationary pressures.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

GLD is "Rising from the Ashes" - What Does It Mean?

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GLD is climbing our relative strength rankings from a low position, joining a list of funds dominated by bonds. We see the strength in gold as another knock against the reflationary trade, despite gold's tendency to be an inflation hedge.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

1987 Rhyme?

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Trend evidence continues to lean bullish, but there are some similarities to the 1987 market.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment Charges Up

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Port of Long Beach data suggests widening trade deficit.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Charges Up

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Port of Long Beach data suggests widening trade deficit.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Consumer Underneath the Headlines

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Booming job growth, modestly higher wages, and surging confidence make the consumer look good. I present some contrary signs of skepticism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Equities and Gold - Go with the Uptrends

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VIX spike marked another opportunity to buy global equities. U.S. Dollar trading range more likely but not long-term advance. Long-term gold outlook remains favorable - watching Gold Watch report.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production Up, Despite Weak Vehicles Output

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LEI points to faster growth in 2H 2017. Philly Fed factory activity eases slightly. Jobless claims continue to decline. Consumer economic expectations rise. E-commerce up strongly. Freight activity decelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up, Despite Weak Vehicles Output

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LEI points to faster growth in 2H 2017. Philly Fed factory activity eases slightly. Jobless claims continue to decline. Consumer economic expectations rise. E-commerce up strongly. Freight activity decelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Five Reasons We Cannot Get Too Bearish On the Consumer (Part 1)

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We remain vigilant for signs of a weakening consumer given Fed tightening and the age of the current expansion. However, solid employment growth, high household net worth, favorable consumer credit conditions, and consistent discretionary spending make it difficult for us to get too bearish. Lack of attractive areas outside of consumer spending such as commodities and business and government spending, makes the consumer attractive on a relative basis. We cannot yet say we are in a late-cycle, bearish consumer period.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

How Do We Think About Our Satellite Positions

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Satellite, or tactical, calls are more mean reversion/contrarian than our core positions. We attempt to keep drawdowns to a minimum in both our core and satellite portfolios.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Upgrading ABS to Overweight

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We are upgrading ABS to overweight. ABS have performed relatively well this year, posting excess returns, entering a seasonally favorable period. Consumer fundamentals support continued spread compression.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Answering Your Questions About NDR's Global Recession Probability Model

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We answer client questions about one of NDR's most popular models. The latest reading in the global recession model is consistent with an expansion reaching mid cycle. Equities tend to outperform when the recession model is declining.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Sentiment Extremes

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Short dollar trade is looking crowded. Short-term equity sentiment at 80-day low, while longer-term indicators remain optimistic. SKEW, which measures the cost of downside protection, at a 75-day high. Further downside likely to be limited with short-term indicators at extremes and long-term tape still strong.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Sag

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Housing affordability drops. Mortgage applications little changed. Empire services activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Sag

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Housing affordability drops. Mortgage applications little changed. Empire services activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment - Dollar, Euro, Gold, Bonds, and Stocks

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Dollar sentiment looks excessively bearish, while stocks look stretched on the upside intermediate-term, but oversold short-term.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Lower Volatility

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Factor Changes: Europe ex. U.K. adding Lower Volatility. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Luxottica Group, Michelin, Unilever, Axa, DnB, Ryanair, SAP, BASF. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Booker Group, Ferguson, Intertek Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Retail Sales Jump

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Import price inflation remains soft. Builder confidence recovers. Empire factory activity surges. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Retail Sales Jump

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Import price inflation remains soft. Builder confidence recovers. Empire factory activity surges. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Crisis Events and Economic Growth

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The near-term economic impact of crisis events could be negligible. Recession probability models do not indicate a downturn in the next 12 months. Economic momentum remains a tailwind for the stock market.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

A Buying Opportunity in Korea

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We see the recent sell-off in Korean equities as a buying opportunity. Technicals and fundamentals remain favorable. The monetary and fiscal backdrop remains accommodative to markets.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Volatility Spike Illuminates Breadth Differences

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Low volatility in large-cap benchmarks masked breadth deterioration in small-caps. Favor large-caps on a tactical basis and secular basis. We are introducing a Small/Large Secular Watch Report.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Two Charts That May Determine Our Next Move

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Our dollar-adjusted LMEX Index is on the cusp of breaking a major downtrend line. Yet, yields in China haven't budged. If a breakout in the dollar-adjusted base metals index is confirmed by a breakout in Chinese yields, we will consider reducing our exposure to bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Energy - All Risk No Reward (Part 2)

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With the exception of Permian E&Ps, the market seems to be re-pricing energy equities lower.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

High Beta Going the Wrong Way

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High beta fund, SPHB, had a rough week last week. If the fund continues to underperform, we will soon close out our trade recommendation. SJNK now has a dividend yield nearly matching JNK and exceeding HYG. The fund has had lower volatility but similar performance over the past year. For clients looking to add high yield exposure, we would favor SJNK.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Big Mo's Lean Bullish, but Overbought with Deteriorating Momentum

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Trend evidence still leans bullish, but looks stretched on the upside.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

CPI Inflation Is A No-Show

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Budget deficit widens and heads for a fiscal showdown in the fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CPI Inflation Is A No-Show

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Budget deficit widens and heads for a fiscal showdown in the fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Health Care is Complicated!

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Now that "Trumpcare" is off the front page, I want to try to provide some health care perspective.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The Run-Up in Profits, and Other Reasons to Let Profits Run

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With global advance well intact, seasonal weakness is buying opportunity. Profit margin improvement among numerous bullish influences. Divergences would be warnings, especially from highest correlating sectors and risk-on indices.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - August 2017

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Q3 sector returns linked to Q2 earnings surprises, revisions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Producers Afraid to Raise Prices

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Also, Consumer Comfort jumps to 16-year high and jobless claims show continued tight labor markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Producers Afraid to Raise Prices

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Also, Consumer Comfort jumps to 16-year high and jobless claims show continued tight labor markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Currency Keeping the EAFE Trade Afloat

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Over the past three months, the euro has delivered all of the gains to many EAFE equity ETFs. Some shorter-term indicators argue that the dollar may rally but longer-term evidence is more mixed. Regardless, emerging markets seem like a better play than EAFE due to underlying equity strength and not purely currency appreciation.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Credit, Complacency, and Leverage

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The VIX and MOVE have recently fallen to record lows, keeping downward pressure on credit spreads. Low spreads give the illusion of liquidity. Low vol also encourages the use of leverage. Reversals of these conditions can be rapid.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

What's the Cure for Faster Growth? Being Happy!

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We evaluate global measures of subjective happiness and overall economic well-being. Gauging human happiness and well-being is extremely important as it can dictate political movements and social unrest, thereby having long-term implications on economic growth and the investment environment. Our analysis confirms that happier countries and those with the sufficient social foundations tend to grow faster.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Nonfarm Productivity Remains Sluggish

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Also, wholesale inventories rise, labor market conditions strengthen, and mortgage apps edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Nonfarm Productivity Remains Sluggish

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Also, wholesale inventories rise, labor market conditions strengthen, and mortgage apps edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Short-Term Sentiment and Longer-Term Valuation - Both Suggest Excessive Optimism

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Valuation and sentiment show risks. Where relative valuation was helpful, and where it was misleading.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Navigating the Stock Screener Interface

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The NDR Stock Screener contains over 200 metrics that can be used for relative or absolute screens. Geographical coverage includes North America, Developed Europe, Developed Asia, and much of Emerging Asia. Schedule saved screen email reminders and store results as ticker lists for use in other NDR tools.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Job Openings Surge, But Labor Supply Lacks The Skills to Fill Them

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NFIB small business optimism rebounds. OECD U.S. CLI points again to below-trend growth. Weekly retail sales boosted by back-to-school.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Job Openings Surge, But Labor Supply Lacks The Skills to Fill Them

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NFIB small business optimism rebounds. OECD U.S. CLI points again to below-trend growth. Weekly retail sales boosted by back-to-school.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Can Strong Breadth Rebuff Seasonal Weakness?

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Big Mo Tape entered August in its bullish zone for only ninth time since 1980. Fall corrections have been shallower when breadth has been strong. Earnings momentum could be reaching unsustainable levels. Sentiment slightly less optimistic.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

European Sovereign Positioning

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We remain neutral on Italian debt but see potential for a short-term trade.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Energy - All Risk No Reward?

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Oil's fundamental data remains strong. Now, short-term technical indicators are improving as well. Despite much-hyped "efficiency gains", energy equities have underperformed oil prices this year.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Energy Equity Funds Vastly Underperforming the Commodity Itself

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Energy equity ETFs have not kept pace with the ascent in oil itself from the June low. That is especially true of OIH which has underperformed the broad market. Without a true sentiment washout and improvement in relative strength, we continue to shy away from owning energy equity funds.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Used vehicle wholesale values continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Used vehicle wholesale values continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Moving Averages Strong, but New Highs Refuse to Confirm

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Trend evidence bullish, but some signs of fading momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Low-Skilled Workers Finding Part-Time Employment

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The continued strength in the labor markets should give the Fed confidence to begin unwinding its balance sheet in October and implement another rate hike in December.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Low-Skilled Workers Finding Part-Time Employment

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The continued strength in the labor markets should give the Fed confidence to begin unwinding its balance sheet in October and implement another rate hike in December.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Other Macro Negatives Weighing on Growth

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Rents and health care services eating up a huge chunk of the median household's wages and salaries.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Failing the Test? Market Implications of More Dollar Weakness

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Watching for dollar breakdown and gold breakout. Ongoing dollar weakness would support continuation of most 2017 performance trends. But Financials now positively correlated with dollar, a potential market threat.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ISM Services Activity Cools Off Notably

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Layoffs continue to trend down. Consumer comfort rises. Factory orders rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Cools Off Notably

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Layoffs continue to trend down. Consumer comfort rises. Factory orders rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Take Profits on SEK; The Euro and Eurozone Earnings

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We are taking profits on our USD/SEK trade idea. We remain bullish on the euro. Eurozone earnings should withstand a stronger euro.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

A Cheaper Way to Play E-Commerce

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Maintaining overweight in Containers & Packaging. Industry has reasonable valuations and accelerating growth fed by e-commerce retail.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Important Lessons from the 1990s

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Despite faster growth, tighter labor markets, and worse financial conditions, inflation was a no-show in the late 1990s. Technology and globalization played important roles in keeping inflation down. We could have another couple of years before we need to worry about inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Broad-Based Gains In ADP Payrolls

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Online labor demand softens, but market still tight. Light vehicle sales up sightly. Small business optimism rises. NYC services activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Broad-Based Gains In ADP Payrolls

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Online labor demand softens, but market still tight. Light vehicle sales up sightly. Small business optimism rises. NYC services activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

July Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cash reserves in money market assets now rivals 1987.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Growth Remains Robust

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Our indicators tracking the global PMIs point to a continuation of the robust global economic expansion. Many major developed economies saw their PMIs slip in July, but all remained in expansion territory. Performance among the world's largest emerging economies was mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Valuation Metrics for the Long Run

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Stocks are extremely overvalued, as measured by 16 out of 20 valuation metrics. Earnings-based metrics have done the best job of identifying the market as cheap or expensive historically. Valuations quantify risks, but they do not mean the secular bull market is near its end. Relative valuations are cheaper, lessoning the secular risks.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

ISM Factory Activity Off Slightly, But Upward Trend Still Solid

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Personal income and spending little changed. State leading indexes point to steady growth ahead. But construction spending drops. Weekly retail sales still struggle.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Factory Activity Off Slightly, But Upward Trend Still Solid

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Personal income and spending little changed. State leading indexes point to steady growth ahead. But construction spending drops. Weekly retail sales still struggle.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Upgrading Turkey and Mexico

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The lira and the peso are amongst the cheapest currencies we track. Local currency debt remains attractive. Earnings trends remain favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Sharpe Perspectives on a New Era for Allocation

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Stocks have outperformed bonds on a risk-adjusted basis over the past five years. High yield rolls on.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

CRE Holds Steady, Maintain Allocations

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Annual returns continue to slow. Nevertheless, CRE remains competitive with other asset classes. Industrials remain the best performing sector.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Regional Factory Activity Mixed

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Pending home sales rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Regional Factory Activity Mixed

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Pending home sales rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ETF AA Model Update - Strength in the Tech Sector

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The model suggests 100% exposure to equities, up from 72% last month. SPY, QQQ, and VWO saw notable jumps in recommended exposure. The model recommends scaling back on EFA and a zero allocation to IJR.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Fading Animal Spirits

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Animal spirits in terms of demand volume are drying up.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Stronger Q2 Real GDP Reflects A Resilient Economy

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Compensation pressures remain subdued. Consumer sentiment moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Stronger Q2 Real GDP Reflects A Resilient Economy

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Compensation pressures remain subdued. Consumer sentiment moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Various Interesting Macro Charts

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The Fed rate hikes may have begun to impact cars and houses.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What Does Mo Show?

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We scour our sector, sub-industry and company momentum ranks looking for thematic trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Aircraft Lifts Durable Goods Orders

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CFNAI points to slightly stronger growth. Advance goods trade deficit narrows. Homeownership rate up. Jobless claims still low. Consumer comfort improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Aircraft Lifts Durable Goods Orders

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CFNAI points to slightly stronger growth. Advance goods trade deficit narrows. Homeownership rate up. Jobless claims still low. Consumer comfort improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold ETF Strategy Recommendations

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We walk through our current strategy recommendations and assess the attractiveness of each. ITA, SPHB, RYH, and MTUM are all funds that continue to look attractive. VNQ is a hold. We are pulling VIG from our recommendations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

G7 and BRIC Outlook: What's Next?

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We provide our quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and regions. Economic conditions have been balanced among the world's largest developed and emerging economies, supporting our assessment that the global economy remains on solid footing. Inflation pressures remain fairly muted among most of the countries, which should keep monetary policy, in aggregate, accommodative.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Simulating the Wind Down of the Fed's Balance Sheet

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We believe the Fed will start shrinking its balance sheet in October and aim for an ending target of 10% to 12% of GDP, or about half of what it is today. Balance sheet normalization will be achieved around June 2022, assuming no recession.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Recession Risk Still Minimal

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New home sales continue to trend up. Business employment dynamics show slower job gains.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Recession Risk Still Minimal

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New home sales continue to trend up. Business employment dynamics show slower job gains.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Fading Deflation Fear, Converging Correlations

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Breadth improving, Risk-On outperforming Risk-Off. Deflation-related correlations converging toward zero. Focus on improved economic outlook evident in breadth and changing correlations.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Favoring Companies Trading at Attractive Free Cash Flow Valuations

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No factor recommendation changes this month. Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term EPS Growth Estimate. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline Group, American Express, UnitedHealth Group, Celgene, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Tenneco Inc. (TEN)

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Tenneco is on a BUY rating across the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. TEN is one standard deviation oversold and trading under 9x trailing and forward earnings. Analyst sentiment is improving and its price momentum ranking has been rising.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Bad News Bulls

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People are unhappy with direction of country, but investors are fairly fully invested with fully priced stocks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Rises

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Existing home prices continue to climb. Richmond Fed activity mixed. Weekly retail sales edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Rises

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Existing home prices continue to climb. Richmond Fed activity mixed. Weekly retail sales edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ZIRP's Unintended Consequences Reversing

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As the Fed normalizes policy, firms are shifting spending from buybacks, dividends, and acquisitions to investments. Debt issuance is also down. Some previously winning strategies, like repurchase yield and dividend yield, are struggling. Cash/assets continues to outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

The Key FI Takeaway From the Mid-Year Client Outlook Survey

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Clients are bullish on EM bonds. We remain neutral and continue to prefer HY over EM.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Oil - Diverging Fundamentals & Tape

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Recent crude oil inventory data has been historically bullish. However, trends within the energy complex remain weak.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Stronger Activity

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But existing home sales slip.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Stronger Activity

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But existing home sales slip.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Cycle Composite, Anniversary Dates, and Big Mo Composite

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Cycle Composite on alert, but evidence does not confirm.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

A Look at Yield Investments When Rates Have Risen

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We look at yield-oriented ETFs over the last 11 times, dating back to 2004, interest rates rose enough to cause a -10% correction in TLT. International dividend, convertibles, and high yield bonds have been good places to be. Investment-grade corporates and Utilities have been weak. Preferreds, REITs, and solar have mixed records, often marching more to the beat of the prevailing fundamentals.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Economic Update -- Some Good and Bad News

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Macro evidence for the economy remains mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is Consumer Staples the Most Hated Sector?

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We look for signs of extreme pessimism toward Consumer Staples.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

A Big Test for the Dollar

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USD testing 2016 lows -- success or failure will influence asset classes and regional indices. Bearish outcome likely, providing more support for gold and emerging markets. Economic growth a greater influence than rate differentials.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Is Wage Growth Really Low?

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At 100% of benchmark duration, our position is in near-perfect alignment with our major models. But every day we struggle with what the next move will be. We can make a decent case for either. Four different indicators show wage pressures are on the rise, which could result in higher yields later in the year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

New All-Time Highs Fail to Excite Investors

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Yesterday's new all-time high did not push sentiment to an optimistic extreme. Above average returns after similar periods historically. June trading range the tightest in over 50 years. Short-& long-end of VIX curve set all-time lows on Friday. These are characteristics of a strong bull market. Momentum strategies tend to outperform as a bull market matures. This cycle is no different.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Time to Buy Gold & Gold Miners?

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Longer-term trend evidence remains uninspiring for GLD and GDX. In the short-run, there may be some mean reversion potential, especially on a relative basis. Watch interest rates, even more so than inflation expectations.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Leading Indicators Up Sharply

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Jobless claims slide. But consumer economic expectations deteriorate. Philly Fed factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Leading Indicators Up Sharply

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Jobless claims slide. But consumer economic expectations deteriorate. Philly Fed factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is Global Monetary Policy Really Tightening?

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Despite tightening by the Fed and the BoC, global central banks in aggregate are more accommodative than they have been in years. Our analysis shows that this should continue to be positive for equities.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Rebound

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Architecture billings rise. Mortgage applications pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Rebound

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Architecture billings rise. Mortgage applications pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

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JetBlue Airways is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. JBLU's price momentum ranking recently spiked higher. Earnings estimates have been rising and trailing P/E showing favorable reward/risk.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Adjusting Factor Recommendations

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Factor Changes: Europe ex. U.K. removing Interest Coverage; U.K. Replacing Earnings Revisions with Gross Profit/Assets. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, ING Groep, DnB ASA, Koninklijke Philips, STMicroelectronics NV. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Ashtead Group, Intertek Group, Mondi.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Showing Potential Sentiment Extremes, or Simply Misleading

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A ratio of two different investments can show sentiment extremes, but can also be misleading.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Builder Confidence Declines

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Import prices continue to soften. Empire services activity weakens. Weekly retail sales fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Confidence Declines

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Import prices continue to soften. Empire services activity weakens. Weekly retail sales fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Positioning

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We have made only one regional allocation change this year. We particularly disagree with the model's overweight on Europe. Our positions are closer to the behavior of the markets.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

A Secular Trend That's Gaining Traction

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The secular downtrend in small-caps relative to large-caps is becoming more established. We analyze five drivers that should accelerate or reverse large-cap relative strength. To mitigate small-cap headwinds, diversify with mid-caps and small-caps with bigger market caps, higher quality, lower volatility, positive momentum, and cheaper valuations.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Emerging Markets Powering Ahead

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Emerging market funds have been rallying strongly, aided by relatively low longer-term interest rates and a weak U.S. dollar. Most composite EM funds look stretched based on our mean reversion score. Low volatility options, and EM consumer do not look as stretched. Despite a powerful move higher, EM internet & e-commerce is also not yet overbought due to a very strong long-term uptrend.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Empire Manufacturing and Outlook Cool

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Individual activity indexes show softer demand in the region.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Empire Manufacturing and Outlook Cool

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Individual activity indexes show softer demand in the region.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trend Evidence Bullish, but a Couple of Sell Signals - Plus More on Dollar-Cost Averaging

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Trend evidence leans bullish with a few cautious alerts. More on dollar-cost averaging.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Up, But Consumer Engine Sputters?

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Today's economic releases reflected strengthening industrial production, but weakening retail sales, CPI inflation, and consumer sentiment. As a result, the GDPNow Model forecast for Q2 real GDP growth was revised down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up, But Consumer Engine Sputters?

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Today's economic releases reflected strengthening industrial production, but weakening retail sales, CPI inflation, and consumer sentiment. As a result, the GDPNow Model forecast for Q2 real GDP growth was revised down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What Is the Fed Thinking?

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Hard to see consumer price inflation, but some of the Fed see asset inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What to Buy for the Capex Theme

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Without an infrastructure plan or rising oil, expect current leadership in Capex to remain the same. Internet and software has been leading in Tech and Aerospace & Defense has been leading Industrials.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Also Lower for Longer - VIX and Valuations

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Rising interest rates not a threat to market advance. Correlations will indicate when that is changing. Watching rates, earnings, valuations, and implied volatilities of stocks and bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Is Health Care Cheap Enough?

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Health Care may only be cheap if Trumpcare does not materially lift the uninsured rate.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

PPI Inflation Continues to Ease

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Consumer comfort drops. Jobless claims still low, but composite labor market condition indicators off slightly. Freight activity rebounds sharply. Beige Book shows continued slight-to-moderate expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Continues to Ease

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Consumer comfort drops. Jobless claims still low, but composite labor market condition indicators off slightly. Freight activity rebounds sharply. Beige Book shows continued slight-to-moderate expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is Reaching Mid Cycle Negative for Global Equities and the Economy?

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An assessment of our favorite global economic indicators point to stable and strong growth with continued signs that the expansion is reaching mid cycle. Our analysis shows that being at the mid-way point in an expansion cycle has historically been good for both global equities and the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Pakistan: Look Past the Political Noise

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Recent political news flow and a devaluation have weighed on Pakistani equities. A growing current account deficit and expensive currency remain long-term concerns. We nevertheless continue to see opportunity, and would buy on weakness with a 12-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Is Bond Sentiment Bullish?

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Bond market positioning was not as bullish as some analysts have said. We got stopped out of our yield curve flattener trade on Tuesday.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Getting Sentimental About Your Investment Process

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NDR has sentiment charts and data covering various areas including asset classes, economies, ETFs, and stocks. Sentiment indicators can be used for tactical positioning, risk management, and timing trades. They usually work better by staying in line with the crowd until sentiment reaches an extreme and then reverses, at which time it pays to take a contrary stance.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

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Expeditors International of Washington is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Ranks. EXPD's stock price is trading near an all-time high. Analysts' ratings improving from most pessimistic levels in over ten years.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Normalized P/E vs. Interest Rate Adjusted, and Potential S&P at 2000 Price/Sales Level

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Valuations appear stretched. Adjusting for interest rates has a mixed record.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Cools Off

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JOLTS show stronger hiring. Wholesale inventories rebound. Weekly retail sale strengthen from a year ago.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Cools Off

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JOLTS show stronger hiring. Wholesale inventories rebound. Weekly retail sale strengthen from a year ago.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Modestly Downgrading Our U.S. Inflation Outlook

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We downgrade our 2017 inflation outlook to 2.0% from 2.1% originally and see a further downside risk. We discuss the recent trends of CPI components and structural forces that could keep downward pressure on prices this year and in the longer-term. Even so, we expect the Fed to continue with policy normalization, raise rates again in September, and start the balance sheet reduction in October.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Is the Labor Market a Threat to the Stock Market?

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Jobs market not stoking inflation. Labor costs not immediate threat to earnings, but watch late 2017 and 2018. Lack of sales, investment, and productivity growth long-term threat.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Bunds Break Out and What it Means

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Risk layering concerns were validated last week causing longer-dated German yields to break out of their trading ranges. Higher bund yields spilled over into other sovereign bond markets. European peripheral spreads came under pressure. The prospect of reduced bond buying helped steepen global yield curves.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

How to Play Japan

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There are 28 different funds to play Japanese stocks. We currently prefer currency-hedged alternatives. DXJ and DXJS, in particular, are the top plays on Japanese market strength and yen weakness.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Oil - A First Half to Forget

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Even a historic inventory report failed to push crude oil prices higher. We review oil's first half and look ahead to the second half.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Employment Trends Still Point To Solid Job Growth

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But OECD U.S. CLI slips again. Used vehicle wholesale prices continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Employment Trends Still Point To Solid Job Growth

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But OECD U.S. CLI slips again. Used vehicle wholesale prices continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

My So-Called Forecast

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Trend evidence remains bullish, but our cycle composite turns down in late summer. The cycle composite has a mixed record, but it has provided real value at some points.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Strong Job Gains with Little Wage Pressures

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We discuss the June Employment Report. We reaffirm our view that the Fed will raise rates again in September and start the balance sheet reduction in October.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Strong Job Gains with Little Wage Pressures

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We discuss the June Employment Report. We reaffirm our view that the Fed will raise rates again in September and start the balance sheet reduction in October.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sector Bubbles: An Applied Approach to Identifying Sector Bubbles and Avoiding Their Crashes

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Recent research has been able to key in on factors that can help give us insights into the life cycle of a bubble. We rely on these factors, or variations of them, to better characterize sector-level bubbles. We also build a composite model of factors to try to predict when these bubbles occur and when they burst. We find that by using the framework described in this paper, it is possible to better time extreme movements among sectors, resulting in reductions in the size of maximum drawdowns, therefore increasing returns and lowering risk.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Solutions Quarterly | Quarterly

Will QT Matter?

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Not much history on Quantitative Tightening, but I'm skeptical.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Services Activity Strengthens

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Most employment indicators point to a tighter market. Trade deficit narrows, but still a drag on Q2 growth. CEO confidence moderates. Consumer comfort off slightly. Mortgage apps mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Strengthens

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Most employment indicators point to a tighter market. Trade deficit narrows, but still a drag on Q2 growth. CEO confidence moderates. Consumer comfort off slightly. Mortgage apps mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Monthly Sector Update - July 2017

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We compare client second-half expectations with ours.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Diversifying Our Macro Exposures

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Our current positions represent a concentrated bet on a flattening yield curve and lower inflation expectations. We're diversifying our macro exposures by closing trades on HEZU, SCIF, and VDC while opening new positions in SPHB and ITA.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

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