Recent Publications

History of the Hindenburg Omen

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Abnormally high number of stocks making 52-week highs and lows. This bad breadth has triggered a Hindenburg Omen signal. Track record is mixed with some great calls, but an even larger number of false signals. Historically, Wednesday and Friday of Thanksgiving week skew positive.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Bounce Back Up

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K.C. Fed manufacturing moderates. Small business optimism off slightly. E-commerce market share keeps rising.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Bounce Back Up

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K.C. Fed manufacturing moderates. Small business optimism off slightly. E-commerce market share keeps rising.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Case for and Against Rising Inflation

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There are some signs of inflationary pressure, but I'm skeptical about how much rise we will see.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Should You be Worried About a Sharp Slowdown in China?

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A dissection of recent data, economic performance following past congress meetings, leading indicators, and government intentions suggest that the chances of a rapid slowdown in the Chinese economy are slim at this point.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Yield Curve Inversions And Sector Performance

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We think it is too early to be worried about yield curve inversions and getting defensive. Still, with most yield curves flattening below 100 basis points, we have received several questions about sector performance around inversions. We looked at sector performance around both yield curve flattening and inversion periods and found it has been better to wait for a yield curve inversion before getting defensive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

After More Market Strength, Watch Sector Earnings in '18

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Now that optimism has been relieved, year end rally likely to resume. Watch earnings and expectations in 2018. Sector earnings data consistent with data for markets globally.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production Up Strongly

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Philly Fed factory activity off slightly, but outlook strengthens. Builder confidence near highest since 2005. Import price inflation remains modest.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up Strongly

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Philly Fed factory activity off slightly, but outlook strengthens. Builder confidence near highest since 2005. Import price inflation remains modest.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Are Bonds Outperforming Cash?

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You can now easily track the bond/cash relative total return ratios for the U.S., Germany, and Japan. We're concerned these ratios could roll over in the near future.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

CPI Inflation Stuck Low

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Retail sales edge up. Business inventories flat. Empire manufacturing eases, but outlook strengthens. Architecture billings up modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CPI Inflation Stuck Low

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Retail sales edge up. Business inventories flat. Empire manufacturing eases, but outlook strengthens. Architecture billings up modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

October Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cyclical sentiment/valuation indicators appear stretched, but some indicators have not yet confirmed.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Bearish Case Easy to Make. Is it Valid?

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Bearish warnings are increasing. We consolidate them into seven and discuss pros and cons. EPS growth in 2018 remains our biggest concern. Most others should be monitored but are not bearish at this time. The NDR U.S. Stock Market Model remains bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Continues to Run High

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PPI inflation pressures rise. Budget deficit widens. Weekly retail sales off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Continues to Run High

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PPI inflation pressures rise. Budget deficit widens. Weekly retail sales off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is the Capex Comeback Finally Here?

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Capex growth has broadened beyond energy-related investment. Stronger factory activity at home and abroad, high business optimism, still favorable credit conditions, and tight labor markets should lift capex for the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Tax reform should provide an additional boost to capex.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Should You Worry about a Flattening Yield Curve?

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The yield curve has a less than perfect record of calling recessions. The curve can remain flat for a long time without the economy falling into recession. The Fed may have distorted the curve and altered its traditional link with the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Are High Yield ETFs a Canary in the Coal Mine?

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Short-term divergences between JNK and SPY are a relatively common occurrence. They tend to be a better signal for predicting subsequent weakness in high yield than in equities. Clients should view the divergence as a shift in investor sentiment and as such, we are closing several recommendations that benefit from a reflationary environment.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Still on Buy Signal but...

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Trend evidence on March 2016 buy signal, but looks stretched based upon long-term linear regression trendline.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment Pulls Back, But Trend Still Up

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Increase in housing affordability questionable.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Pulls Back, But Trend Still Up

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Increase in housing affordability questionable.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

My Economic Update

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Mildly bullish on the economy. High debt and low savings are a drag.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Beware of Shifting Earnings Sentiment

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Excessive earnings optimism is a market risk. Consider trailing vs. forward, valuations and revisions. Support for overweight to Emerging Markets, underweight to Europe ex. U.K.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Sign of the Bear?

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Bull market until proven otherwise, but there are some signs of late cycle risk.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

A Mixed Bag Of Economic Reports

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OECD U.S. CLI points to steady, but below-average growth. Labor market indicators show further tightening. Consumer comfort off slightly. Housing opportunity shrinks. Wholesale I/S ratio continues to adjust down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Mixed Bag Of Economic Reports

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OECD U.S. CLI points to steady, but below-average growth. Labor market indicators show further tightening. Consumer comfort off slightly. Housing opportunity shrinks. Wholesale I/S ratio continues to adjust down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

An Interesting 12 Months!

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Despite 2,412 tweets from POTUS since election, the max drawdown for the S&P 500 is 2.8%! 4th highest market returns in the year after the election, but 2nd lowest approval rating. Starting to see signs of churning in short-term breadth indicators. Divergences hint at a possible pause in uptrend, rather than the start of a large correction. Strong support for S&P 500 around 2,530.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Active to Passive...Will it Ever End?

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Active to passive is oversimplifying the trend. Performance, demographics, industry trends, and fees play a large role. ETFs are the Amazon of investment vehicles, a disruptive technology that is here to stay. However, correlations are falling, giving active managers a better chance to outperform. They may need to take more active risk to justify fees.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - November 2017

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We believe we could continue to give back some September's "Trump Bump" while we wait for tax reform legislation to get hammered out, possibly over the next six months. Financials-Industrials relative strength resuming an uptrend and the 10-year yield breaking above 2.45% would be taken as strong indications the Trump Trade is back on. For now, we are content having Technology and Energy as our largest overweights, and Consumer Discretionary as our largest underweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Are We Running Out of Low-Skilled Labor?

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The labor markets might be tighter than many pundits believe, particularly for low-skilled labor. We remain positive on risk assets and cautious toward rate-sensitive instruments.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

What Does the BoE's First Rate Hike in a Decade Mean for Markets?

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Our historical analysis indicates that the latest BoE rate increase likely won't derail the economic and equity outlook anytime soon, with even less risk of damage in light of the bank's dovish tone.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

My Bond Market Update

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I think bond yields are heading higher, but slowly.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

One Tax Provision That Shouldn't Matter, One That Could, and a Technical Indicator That Might

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Taxing interest above 30% of EBITDA should not erase the benefits of lower tax rates. Taxing overseas profits could reduce tax cuts for multinationals. Mini technical divergences warrant attention but are not enough to change our positive outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Oil - A Bitter-Sweet Victory

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This week, oil met our expectation and broke out to new multi-year highs. Despite a 45% oil rally from the June lows, energy stocks continue to lag. Due to strong underlying oil fundamentals and our objective indicators, we remain oil bulls.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

JOLTS: Tighter Labor Market Conditions

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Wholesale used vehicle prices up again. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

U.K., China Diverging

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Look for Gilt spreads to resume their downtrends. Despite technical breakdowns, Chinese bonds remain attractive in the long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

JOLTS: Tighter Labor Market Conditions

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Wholesale used vehicle prices up again. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Most Important Macro Factor for the Developed International Trade

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The dollar had been weakening all year providing a tailwind to European ETFs while creating a headwind for Japanese funds. The recent bout of dollar strength has been fundamentally backed since September and a continuation would favor currency-hedged Japan over other developed international options.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Surge

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This suggests a pickup in payrolls and real GDP growth in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Surge

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This suggests a pickup in payrolls and real GDP growth in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Resuming the Curve Flattener

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We are resuming the curve flattening trade. We review the models and indicators explaining this change.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Stock Market Outlook Update

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Valuations are a good long-term indicator, but are pretty useless short-term. Key to shorter-term outlook is tape, which leans bullish, and the Fed, which is neutral.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Yellen's Mystery Continues

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The October Employment Report showed persistent elimination of labor market slack which will keep the Fed on track to raise rates again next month. In other reports, ISM services activity strengthened, factory orders rose, and the trade deficit widened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Yellen's Mystery Continues

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The October Employment Report showed persistent elimination of labor market slack which will keep the Fed on track to raise rates again next month. In other reports, ISM services activity strengthened, factory orders rose, and the trade deficit widened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Downside to Tax Reform

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Rising rates and deficits could be an offset to tax cuts.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is There No End to This Global Expansion Madness?

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The latest PMI data continued to show some of the strongest and broadest growth since 2011. Even if the latest data marked a peak, it doesn't mean recession is coming anytime soon. Developed economies, led by Europe, continued to dominate the PMI ranks.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Rocky Start for Powell? Would Be Typical.

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The median correction during the first six months of a new Fed chair has been -10.5% on the DJIA. Powell is seen as continuing Yellen's gradual approach. History suggests the market will test Powell early in his term.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

When Will Rates Threaten? Watch the Tech Sector

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Market and sector correlations show equities rising when bond yields increase. But Tech sector correlation has dropped toward zero -- watch for inverse correlation. Divergent Tech sector would be likely to lead other indices lower, with a rising number of correlations inverting.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Nonfarm Productivity Up, But Trend Still Sluggish

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Light vehicle sales hold strong. Layoffs trend lower. Consumer comfort strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Nonfarm Productivity Up, But Trend Still Sluggish

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Light vehicle sales hold strong. Layoffs trend lower. Consumer comfort strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is Tech Capex Back?

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Tech capex as a percent of total GDP has been gradually rising since Q4 2013 and that trend could accelerate with tax reform. Even if consumer tech spending slows, business tech spending could provide a second leg of growth, giving us conviction to remain overweight the Technology sector.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Matching NDR's Official Bond Positions with ETFs

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Interest rate-hedged bond funds are a good way to get exposure to an overweight in credit. Treasurys may look attractive soon as sentiment continues to correct. Favor USD-denominated EM debt for now.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

FOMC on Track for December Hike Amid Near-Record Bond Inflows

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FOMC on track to raise rates in December. Bond market performance in October was aligned with our positioning. Continuity in monetary policy, high cash levels, and steady inflows could dent the prospects for a big bond selloff before yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Down Slightly, But Trends Show Robust Growth

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ADP payrolls bounce back and online labor demand picks up. Construction spending y/y momentum remains weak. Mortgage applications edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Down Slightly, But Trends Show Robust Growth

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ADP payrolls bounce back and online labor demand picks up. Construction spending y/y momentum remains weak. Mortgage applications edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Where Have Earnings Outperformed Expectations Most?

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Regional earnings have surprised to the upside globally. Europe stands out as the region where earnings delivery has outstripped expectations most. Emerging Markets surprises have been positive, notably in Emerging Europe, if muted elsewhere.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Sentiment Update on Crude, Gold, Dollar, Bonds, and Stocks

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The falling rig count for crude is a hopeful sign from insiders' sentiment. Sentiment on stocks looks stretched.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Growing Economy Supports Further CRE Returns

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Commercial real estate remains competitive, although returns have slowed. Smaller properties continued to outperform. Industrials remained the best performing sector.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000

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Compensation pressures edge up. Regionals show robust factory activity. Existing home prices continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000

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Compensation pressures edge up. Regionals show robust factory activity. Existing home prices continue to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Should Investors Be Spooked By Vanishing Seasonal Weakness?

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Small August-October corrections have been followed by stronger than average yearend rallies. Friday's narrow advance bears watching, but is juxtaposed against several other strong breadth indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Can the U.S. Go Its Own Way?

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We're skeptical that higher U.S. yields can be sustained without global support and higher inflation. Nevertheless, U.S. spreads could continue to widen resulting in U.S. underperformance.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Update -- It's a Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

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The model continues to allocate 100% to equities. Trend, economic, and seasonality indicators continue to favor stocks over bonds. Within equity, the Tech sector has been very strong over the past month and year-to-date. That is evident in an increased allocation toward SPY, QQQ, and VWO.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Consumption Spending Surges, Income Also Up

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Texas manufacturing strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumption Spending Surges, Income Also Up

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Texas manufacturing strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What Does Final Phase Melt-Up Look Like?

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Trend evidence remains bullish. The average last run in major bull markets has averaged 13.4% in 61 trading days.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

G7 and BRIC Outlook: Do Good Things Have to Come to an End?

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We provide our quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and regions. Economic conditions have either improved or have remained stable in the world's largest economies, supporting our assessment that the global economy remains on solid footing. Even though some central banks will tighten policy or become less dovish, monetary policy will, in aggregate, remain accommodative in the near future.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Robust Real GDP Growth, Despite Hurricanes

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Consumer sentiment holds strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Robust Real GDP Growth, Despite Hurricanes

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Consumer sentiment holds strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Does a Sector-Neutral Value Strategy Help Reduce Risk?

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To determine if a stock is cheap or expensive, its valuation is usually compared against a peer group. We find that a portfolio constructed with a sector-neutral value strategy using sector peer groups has higher return to risk than a value strategy that uses the entire universe as a peer group.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Solutions Quarterly | Quarterly

Global in Scope

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Global economic evidence leans bullish. This should help in keeping U.S. growing.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Going Secular... and What it Would Take to Upgrade Japan

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Japan close to joining secular bull, participating in global advance. But evidence of persistent outperformance lacking. We remain marketweight, gauging eight considerations.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Overweight Technology and Financials?

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Five Reasons Why Both Tech and Financials Could Outperform: Both are OK with rising rates; Both could benefit from tax reform; Both are acting like growth sectors; Both are showing strong momentum; and Both are undervalued.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Widens

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Pending home sales remain weak. Jobless claims up slightly. But consumer comfort continues to trend up. K.C. Fed manufacturing accelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Widens

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Pending home sales remain weak. Jobless claims up slightly. But consumer comfort continues to trend up. K.C. Fed manufacturing accelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Rising Rate Rally

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Over the last few months, precious metals and several important currencies have become more negatively correlated with interest rates. Broad market funds as well as higher beta sectors and the U.S. dollar have become increasingly positively correlated with rates. Based on sentiment, we would go with the flow until an extreme and a reversal. That would mean rates could have further upside along with the dollar.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Time to Shine Credit Managers!

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High yield industry correlations have fallen to their lowest level since October 2006, providing an opportunity to add value in actively managed credit portfolios.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Post Another Solid Gain

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New home sales surge. State coincident indexes recover, but trend still weak.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Post Another Solid Gain

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New home sales surge. State coincident indexes recover, but trend still weak.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Consumer and Investor Sentiment

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Both consumer and most investor confidence is very high, but fund flows question if this is actually euphoria.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Factor Balancing - Year-End Rally Potential vs. 2018 Risks

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Factor Changes: None. Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term Sales Growth. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline Group, Berkshire Hathaway, UnitedHealth Group, Celgene, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Digging Deeper into EM Bonds

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Within USD EM Bonds, we currently prefer the sovereign sector. Among regions, we prefer Latam. We would avoid politically challenged countries.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Markit Flash PMIs Suggest Faster Growth in Q4

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Richmond Fed factory activity eases, but services pick up. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash PMIs Suggest Faster Growth in Q4

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Richmond Fed factory activity eases, but services pick up. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why We Haven't Chased Small-Caps

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The recent small-cap rally was driven by tax talk. To shift from large to small tactically, we need to see either a decisive technical breakout or a selloff combined with improved macro-fundamentals. Small-cap strength on an absolute basis supports the cyclical bull market.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

MLPs - Straying From the Path

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MLPs and Energy equities have disconnected from their historic relationship with oil and the stock market. High Yield Energy bonds have enjoyed a historic rally from oil's 2016 low. Given other yield alternatives, MLPs are attractive.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Marrying GARP Characteristics with the Trend

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Financials and Industrials ETFs have relative GARP characteristics and are improving in our relative strength ranks. Two factor funds that we have been recommending, SPHB and MTUM, have high exposure to these sectors. Japan is an international play on GARP, but we recommend hedging the currency exposure.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Rebounds, But Trend Still Subdued

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2017 budget deficit highest in 4 years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Rebounds, But Trend Still Subdued

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2017 budget deficit highest in 4 years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global in Scope

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Global trend evidence leans bullish. Watch the Global Big Mo tape for change.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Up Modestly

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Construction backlog shortens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Up Modestly

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Construction backlog shortens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Economy Not Overheated, but Slowdown in Growth May Be Underway

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I think the very low unemployment rate is not yet a sign that the economy is overheating. Nevertheless, there are some signs growth is already slowing.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Stay with Gold and Emerging Markets

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Expect resumption of dollar downtrend, uptrends in gold and emerging market relative strength. Emerging markets benefit from long-term momentum and relatively attractive valuation. Consider the influence of top 10 stocks by market cap in each region.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Jammin' With Heavy Metals

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Lower inventories and higher demand are putting upward price pressure on Heavy/Industrial Metals. While most Steel companies have not benefitted from this trend, most Copper and Aluminum companies have. We introduce an index of five companies that have the highest correlation to the London Metal Exchange Index.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

LEI Slips, Partly Due To Hurricanes

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims fewest since 1973. Consumer comfort up, but expectations worsen. Beige Book shows modest to moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Slips, Partly Due To Hurricanes

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims fewest since 1973. Consumer comfort up, but expectations worsen. Beige Book shows modest to moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Do Rates and the Dollar Really Matter for EM Equities?

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EM equities should be resilient to near-term rate rises. A stronger dollar is arguably more problematic, but not decisively so. Structural changes in the EM equity universe have made it more resilient.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Buy, Sell, or Hold

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Continue to position for the global growth, reflation theme. MTUM and SPHB are two funds that clients can accumulate more of. We may soon rotate from IXC into a fund with even higher oil sensitivity.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Upgrading EM Bonds to Overweight

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Upgrading USD EM bonds to overweight from marketweight. Improving global growth, higher commodity prices, and increasing Chinese weightings all support a more bullish view.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Is the Eurozone Ready for Tapering?

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Many of you have asked if the eurozone economy can survive with less stimulus. We suspect it will.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Architecture billings contract. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Architecture billings contract. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Factor-Based Investing - Opportunities, Risks, and Implementation

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Factor investing is growing in popularity as evidenced by the number of published articles and ETF flows. Regardless of geography, over the long-term favor higher quality, cheaper companies that efficiently generate cash, reward equity shareholders, and receive recognition from investors. However, the environment affects factor behavior, so tactical portfolio managers can adjust their allocations to control risks and improve returns. Current risks to factor investing include rising correlations and elevated valuations.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Decline in Publicly Traded Stocks

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The number of listed stocks in long-term downtrend since the late 1990s. I try to analyze if this is a problem.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Price Momentum Factor Strategies

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No Factor Recommendation Changes This Month. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Continental, Adidas, Unilever, Repsol, DnB, Bayer, Deutsche Post, Volvo, SAP Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Ashtead Group, Intertek Group, Rio Tinto, Mondi.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

New Stock Market Model Confirms Positive Outlook

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New U.S. Stock Market Model for intermediate-term S&P 500 outlook. Model bullish based on strong technicals, positive EPS growth, and solid economy. Sentiment warns of optimism and complacency. Detailed explanation of model building process.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Don't be Surprised by Higher Inflation

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The New York Fed's Underlying Inflation Gauges suggest inflation trends are creeping up, and could show up in headline and core CPI inflation in 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Industrial Production Up, But Still Shows Hurricane Impact

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Builder confidence rebounds. Import prices pick up. But Empire services activity and outlook moderate. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up, But Still Shows Hurricane Impact

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Builder confidence rebounds. Import prices pick up. But Empire services activity and outlook moderate. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Baby Step Toward a More Bearish Bond Position

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We are reducing our bond exposure by 5%. Tentative signs that prices and wages are beginning to pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Technology Still Has Momentum

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Funds flows have shifted to Trump Trades, with sourcing from Technology. Semiconductor and Software ETF trends have remained strong. Within our ETF strategy, maintain exposure to QQQ and SPHB and consider IGV, XSD, and FDN as granular plays.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Empire Manufacturing Accelerates

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The outlook for future conditions also strengthened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Empire Manufacturing Accelerates

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The outlook for future conditions also strengthened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Bullish Technical Composites - More Stop-Loss Points

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Trend evidence remains bullish. What to watch for a potential change.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Rebound

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CPI inflation remains low. Consumer sentiment recovers. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Rebound

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CPI inflation remains low. Consumer sentiment recovers. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tax Reform and the Trump Bump

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Tax reform should cause a bump, but only mildly.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Corporate Credits Under Attack, at Risk, and Improving

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We're starting to see some differentiation in credit. We remain worried about consumer-related industries, particularly Retail, Supermarkets, Restaurants, and Food/Beverage. Conversely, commodity-related industries have been improving.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Tax Reform Beneficiaries: Take Two

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Given the revived hope for tax reform, we took another look at sectors and sub-industries with high effective tax rates (>30%) and low interest expense burden (<10%), in order to find potential reform winners. We screened for high tax and low interest burden companies and our results showed the following sectors and industries could benefit the most from tax reform: Consumer Staples (Hypermarkets & Supercenters), Consumer Discretionary (Automotive Retail and Apparel Retail), Industrials (Trading Companies & Distributors).

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

A Strengthened Rally - Will Fund Flows Return?

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Global market advance supported by Rally Watch and Risk-On indications. Relative sentiment and flows indicate greater potential for stocks than bonds. Rising equity mutual fund inflows would support secular bull and active management prospects.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

PPI Inflation Accelerates

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Jobless claims continue to slide. But consumer comfort weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Accelerates

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Jobless claims continue to slide. But consumer comfort weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Optimism as Far as the Eye Can See

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Our ETF Speculation Index is back to extreme optimism. The sentiment condition is extremely broad-based. Notable optimistic extremes can be found in Aerospace & Defense, small-caps, Health Care, and Industrials. Sentiment remains mildly pessimistic on Energy and various bond proxies.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

A Review of Our Currency Valuation Tools

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We review two methods of currency valuation, and introduce a forward-looking metric. The standard textbook method of calculating PPP is of limited practical utility. PPP calculations incorporating market data and future expectations can be more useful than the standard approach.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Global Economic Conditions Point to Smooth Sailing for the Time Being

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Global economic data continues to point to above-trend growth. Economic sentiment has also made new highs. Our analysis suggests that this should continue to be positive for global equities.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

JOLTS: Little Turnover In Tight Labor Market

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Mortgage applications edged down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

JOLTS: Little Turnover In Tight Labor Market

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Mortgage applications edged down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Decade Later, Few Signs of Another Major Peak

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Private sector less leveraged, but Fed unwind a major risk. Valuations higher than in 2007. Watch for margin compression. Technicals stronger than in October 2007.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

September Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Most sentiment/valuation work stretched on upside.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Does Rising Income Inequality Matter?

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Real family income and wealth increased in the 2013-2016 period. But the gains were uneven across the income distribution, and resulted in higher inequality. The current tax reform proposal would increase income inequality. Tight labor markets and faster wage growth could help ease inequality over time.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

China - The Next Frontier

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Investors should seriously consider adding Chinese bonds to their global bond portfolios. Those worried about investing in the onshore market should look at the offshore market and the bonds of USD-denominated Chinese debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Drops

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Weekly retail sales soften.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Drops

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Weekly retail sales soften.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Energy Snaps Back

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Since registering a pessimistic extreme in late August, Oilfield Service equities have rallied by ~16%. We discuss the indicators that will reveal whether this rally is sustainable.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Turkey: Downgrading to Marketweight

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We are downgrading Turkish equities to marketweight with a three-month view. Long-term fundamentals remain more constructive than headlines suggest. Technicals and political headlines are a near-term challenge.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

ETF Investors Flocking Back to the "Trump" Trades, Will it Last?

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Among others, notable Trump trade beneficiaries are domestic small-caps, Financials, and Industrials. ETF investors have been adding allocation to all three of these areas. Sentiment and seasonality trends suggest that Trump trade outperformance can last through Q4. However, the trades are quickly becoming consensus, evident in our ETF Sentiment Ratings as well as investor positioning.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Little Changed

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OECD U.S. CLI holds steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Little Changed

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OECD U.S. CLI holds steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Bullish Trend Composites - More Points to Watch

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but points to watch.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Labor Markets Tighten, Wage Pressures Building

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Despite distortions to the September employment surveys from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there were clear signs that labor markets continued to tighten and are beginning to put upward pressure on wages. This report should be sufficient to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Labor Markets Tighten, Wage Pressures Building

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Despite distortions to the September employment surveys from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there were clear signs that labor markets continued to tighten and are beginning to put upward pressure on wages. This report should be sufficient to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Four Positive - Four Negative Charts on Economy

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I continue to see mixed macro indicators. The evidence leans mildly bullish for the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - October 2017

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Sector relative returns from 9/8/17 to 9/29/17 nearly mirrored those from 11/8/16 to 11/29/16 as the Trump Trade returned. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 2.4%, Financials relative strength breaking above its July high, and a downgrade of Growth to neutral are triggers that could cause us to upgrade Financials. We are encouraged by improvement Industrials; Both Financials and Industrials are on watch for an upgrade to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

30 Years Later - A Better October

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Current bullish outlook stands in contrast to October 1987. Octobers of 1997 and 2007 also compared. We expect a better year-seven October and fourth quarter strength.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Factory Orders Rebound

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Jobless claims and layoff announcements decline. Consumer comfort and CEO confidence slide. Trade deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Factory Orders Rebound

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Jobless claims and layoff announcements decline. Consumer comfort and CEO confidence slide. Trade deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Bullish Developments for Energy Funds

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Two of our favorite screens for generating trade ideas now have strong representation from the Energy sector. Short-term, Energy is overbought and seasonality is poor. But sentiment remains depressed. We would look to rotate from IXC to XOP should the overbought condition ease, as long as the outlook for oil remains bullish.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Tax Reform: Marriage Made in Heaven, Shotgun Wedding, or Left at the Altar?

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A corporate tax cut could boost S&P 500 EPS 7-14%. For the S&P 600, it could be 27-35%. Investors are not differentiating between high and low tax payers within small-caps. An individual tax cut is unlikely to be as stimulative as the Kennedy and Reagan cuts. Removing deductions like state taxes may prove difficult.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Baby Steps to a Bond Bear

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We are still looking to eventually declare a bond bear market. We review the indicators we are watching and note some deterioration, taking us closer to a bond bear.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Can Immigration Change a Country's Demographic Destiny?

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Among some of the most demographically challenged countries in the world, such as Germany and Japan, the answer is no. Countries with smaller percentage declines in population and relatively high immigration could realistically increase immigration to make up for their population declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Surges

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Light vehicle sales jump. ADP payrolls take a hit from the hurricanes. Online labor demand remains weak. Mortgage applications soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Surges

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Light vehicle sales jump. ADP payrolls take a hit from the hurricanes. Online labor demand remains weak. Mortgage applications soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Contrarian Contradiction

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University of Michigan consumer sentiment on stocks hit record highs. I see sentiment/valuation as leaning mildly bearish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Stay the Course on Spain... For Now

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Despite political headlines, the fundamental picture in Spain has been strong. Our quantitative indicators remain favorable, on balance. We remain overweight Spanish equities relative to European peers with a six- to 12-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Is Global Growth Finally at Pre-Crisis Levels?

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Global economic growth appears to be coming back to its pre-crisis levels, according to the latest PMI data, with our measure of economic breadth at its best point since 2007. Despite the broadening growth trends, the developed world, led by Europe, continues to lead growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Weekly Retail Sales Pick Up At Month-End

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But ISM New York services activity contracts.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Weekly Retail Sales Pick Up At Month-End

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But ISM New York services activity contracts.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

End of the Line on CGB/Tsy Spread Widening?

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Canadian spreads have widened to the highest levels in years. The BOC has met its near-term objective of removing the insurance it took out in 2015, and is prepared to pause its interest rate normalization policy. Tighter financial conditions should slow the economy and keep core inflation below that of the U.S. The 10-year CGB/Tsy spread should not rise above zero.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Benchmark Review: Asset Inflation in the Face of QT. Also, Trump.

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S&P 500 posts 11th consecutive monthly gain, a 58-year high. Gains were broad-based. Eleven of 12 asset class benchmarks rose in Q3. Commodities, emerging markets and related sectors rebounded, especially in September.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

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