Recent Publications

Advance Q1 GDP Soft, But Capex Shines

|

Employment Cost Index up by the most since 2007. Consumer sentiment remains high. But regional factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Concern About Drop in Loan Demand, Plus Inflation and Profits

|

I answer a question on the importance of loan demand growth falling. It is not a major problem, but I would not ignore it either. Once again, I feature a relationship between inflation and profits.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Are Bond Flows Drying Up?

|

Money continued to pour into bond mutual funds in March. But April has seen a sharp reduction of inflows.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Strategy Update - Equity Allocation and Currencies

|

For confirmation that renewed rallying has started, watch for breadth thrust signals, bullish Rally Watch majority, and reassertive uptrend in Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio. Currencies reversing from sentiment extremes. Low real rates support continuation of currency ranges.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

G7 and BRIC Outlook: Risks Subsiding?

|

We provide our quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and regions. Economic conditions have continued to improve among the world's largest economies compared to our last comprehensive assessment in January, as we had anticipated. The global economy remains on solid footing , but still has political tail risks.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Durable Goods Orders Increase Slightly

|

Advance goods trade deficit widens, while Q1 real GDP tracks near flat growth. Consumer comfort rebounds, but some business confidence measures ease. Home ownership rate ticks up. Pending home sales edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Increase Slightly

|

Advance goods trade deficit widens, while Q1 real GDP tracks near flat growth. Consumer comfort rebounds, but some business confidence measures ease. Home ownership rate ticks up. Pending home sales edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Should Gold Go Into Your ETF Portfolio

|

The trend evidence is mixed on gold funds and sentiment is now overly optimistic. We do not like it for a trade at this time. As far as whether it belongs in your portfolio for diversification benefits and as an inflation hedge, the answer may be "no".

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Key Sector Trends Update

|

Our update of six key relative strength trends shows Technology broke above resistance, Health Care failed to break out, Financials broke support, and all others held support. Based on current trends, we have shifted weight from Financials to Energy and may soon upgrade Technology and Consumer Discretionary. We maintain our significant overweight on Industrials and underweight on Health Care.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

State Coincident Indexes Support Broad-Based Growth

|

Business employment dynamics improve. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Support Broad-Based Growth

|

Business employment dynamics improve. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Higher Quality Strategies Well Positioned for the Environment

|

Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Shareholder Yield. Selected Stocks Include: Ross Stores, Baker Hughes, American Express, Boeing, Raytheon, Texas Instruments, HP.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Gap Inc. (GPS)

|

Gap Inc. is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. GPS relative strength improving and the stock trades for under 13x forward earnings. Analysts' sentiment reversing higher off of all-time low.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Is the Shiller P/E Distorted?

|

I look at some of the objections to the Shiller P/E ratio, and conclude the market is overvalued.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

As Washington Debates, Stimulus Fades

|

NDR Policy Index has dropped due to less friendly Fed. Tax cuts likely needed for Policy Index rebound. Intermediate-term market outlook remain bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Moderates Slightly

|

New home sales march higher. Existing home prices continue to advance. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales grow modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Moderates Slightly

|

New home sales march higher. Existing home prices continue to advance. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales grow modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tracking Trumponomics

|

Two new charts show some progress in the labor market, but lack of stimulus could stifle expectations for stronger growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

European Funds in Focus

|

European equity funds continue to ascend our relative strength rankings. We remain bullish in the ETF Strategy. However, we are now watching for indications that these funds are becoming overbought and investors extremely optimistic. Neither condition is currently in place. Currency hedged alternatives have been losing relative strength versus their unhedged counterparts, but we are not ready to close out our HEZU recommendation.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Oil: Lessons in Volatility & Humility

|

Total U.S. petroleum inventories are now declining on a YOY basis. Following an initial tightening of total petroleum inventories, crude oil prices usually rise. We discuss the market's nervousness regarding recent inventory reports.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

France: Buy Relief, not Hope

|

The result of the first round of the presidential election was better than the worst case for markets. While we think an FN victory in May to be unlikely, Macron also faces many hurdles. From a short-term standpoint, a relief rally is likely to persist, but we are skeptical of a longer-term French reform trade.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

CFNAI Shows Slightly Softer Growth

|

Texas manufacturing conditions steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Slightly Softer Growth

|

Texas manufacturing conditions steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why the French Election Results Could be Bearish for Global Bonds

|

The initial market reaction was as we anticipated, as risk-on returned. The reduction in political uncertainty and an economy performing well will lead to speculation that the ECB will change its rate guidance and announce it will taper its bond buying next year. The tapering of ECB asset purchases could trigger a series of bond bearish events. But core inflation is far from the ECB's target.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Three Step Rule

|

Objective trend evidence still leans bullish, but there are some subjective signs that the uptrend is mature.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Rebound

|

Markit U.S. Flash PMIs signal further slowdown in growth. But State Leading Indexes suggest trend-like growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Rebound

|

Markit U.S. Flash PMIs signal further slowdown in growth. But State Leading Indexes suggest trend-like growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Confidence Soars, Employment Solid, but Fish Aren't Biting

|

Confidence is soaring and employment is strong, but this is not necessarily bullish for stocks. Meanwhile, other indicators do not yet confirm economic strength.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Gold Golden Cross, New Highs Ahead?

|

Trend improvement supports bullish outlook for gold. Underpinned by reflation, monetary policies and inflation outlook. Buying opportunity on correction.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Continues to Point to Strengthening Growth

|

Philly Fed factory activity moderates, but capex plans rise. Cass Freight shipments volume up modestly. Some business and consumer confidence measures ease. Jobless claims increase slightly. Beige Book indicates modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Continues to Point to Strengthening Growth

|

Philly Fed factory activity moderates, but capex plans rise. Cass Freight shipments volume up modestly. Some business and consumer confidence measures ease. Jobless claims increase slightly. Beige Book indicates modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment Tides Slowly Turning

|

Our ETF Speculation Index is nearing a buy signal while bond optimism is shifting out of its pessimistic zone. Aggregate optimism remains on reflation trades but that is also beginning to reverse while pessimism can be found in Health Care, Staples, and REITs.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Energy RS and Oil Linked

|

Expect the correlation between oil and Energy relative strength to remain high while the price of oil remains in the $50s.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

IBM as a Poster Child

|

IBM may tell us something about U.S. economic growth rates since 2000, and the use of creative financial engineering of earnings.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is China's Real Estate Market Showing Any Signs of Cooling?

|

Individual city data show that government-imposed real estate restrictions are starting to have an impact, which is so far not that evident in the national data. Supply and demand forces suggest that if and when the real estate curbs are pulled, prices should continue their upward path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Why We're Closing Out the Underweight on French Sovereign Debt

|

Heading into the first round of the presidential election, we are closing out our underweight on French sovereign debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Breadth Thrust Unlikely From Current Levels

|

Correction not yet deep enough to expect a breadth thrust. Short-term sentiment and shape of VIX curve are both signaling that investors are nervous, but not yet at extremes that have marked recent bottoms. Bigger correction would set the stage for a stronger advance. Market can move higher from here, but rally would likely be underwhelming.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

GBP/USD: Upgrading Our Near-Term View

|

The recent political surprises in the U.K. have prompted us to change our outlook on GBP/USD. The U.K. general election is likely to dull the impact of the hard Brexit lobby. Softening rate expectations in the U.S. contribute to the case for a stronger GBP.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Turkey: Upgrading to Marketweight

|

Erdogan's referendum was controversial, but the economy has exhibited qualified signs of stabilization. Momentum has been weak, but valuations and the currency arguably appealing. We upgrade Turkish equities from Underweight to Marketweight with a three-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

|

JetBlue Airways Corp. is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. The stock is trading for under 11x trailing and forward earnings. JBLU relative strength is favorable compared to the broad market, Industrials, and Airlines.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Architecture Billings Up, But Future Demand Eases

|

Mortgage applications mixed. ATA truck tonnage slips.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Architecture Billings Up, But Future Demand Eases

|

Mortgage applications mixed. ATA truck tonnage slips.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Lower Volatility Outperforming This Year

|

Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Michelin, ING Groep, Siemens, Arkema. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Burberry Group, Persimmon, Booker Group, Wolseley, Intertek Group, Smiths Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Another Look at My Take on Bond Sentiment/Valuation

|

Sentiment on bonds still suggests patience before yields move higher.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Utilities Boost Industrial Production, While Manufacturing Drops

|

Housing starts meander. State coincident indexes show broad-based growth. Empire services up, but outlook moderates. Weekly retail sales improve slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Utilities Boost Industrial Production, While Manufacturing Drops

|

Housing starts meander. State coincident indexes show broad-based growth. Empire services up, but outlook moderates. Weekly retail sales improve slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Where Is Policy Stimulus Headed?

|

The current policy mix remains supportive of trend economic expansion. With the Fed on a tightening path and amid risk of a stronger dollar, lack of fiscal stimulus could dash expectations of faster growth this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Short-Term Breakout?

|

If the market doesn't quickly reverse back into the ranges and overbought conditions are relieved, then further rallies are likely.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Companies Investing More, but Cash Still King for Stock Performance

|

EPS rebounded, but cash flow fell amid stalling operating cash flow growth and increase in investments. Companies that keep their cash continue to outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Another Piece of the Passive vs. Active Puzzle - SKEW

|

Stock universes tend to show positive skew, implying that a random selection of a stock is statistically unlikely to result in picking a "winner." The larger and more diverse the universe, the more positively skewed the distribution. Investors with great expertise in an area may be able to produce outsize gains given these characteristics. Investors without the expertise should consider indexing their exposure to certain areas.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Confidence Tapers Off Slightly

|

Empire state manufacturing activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Confidence Tapers Off Slightly

|

Empire state manufacturing activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Volume Clues

|

There are signs of a short-term correction, but longer-term price and volume momentum still lean bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Decline, But Longer-Term Trend Holding Up

|

CPI inflation pressures ease. Business inventories and sales rise. State leading indexes mostly positive. Housing affordability range-bound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Decline, But Longer-Term Trend Holding Up

|

CPI inflation pressures ease. Business inventories and sales rise. State leading indexes mostly positive. Housing affordability range-bound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sector Shifts

|

Moving 200 basis points of sector allocation from Financials to Energy. Lowering Financials, Banks, and Capital Markets to marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Producer Prices Edge Down Slightly

|

Consumer sentiment and comfort rise. Jobless claims continue to decline. Federal budget deficit widens significantly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Producer Prices Edge Down Slightly

|

Consumer sentiment and comfort rise. Jobless claims continue to decline. Federal budget deficit widens significantly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Bond Fund Breakout & New Screener Additions

|

Bond fund ETFs are breaking resistance and it is evident in bond-proxy equity ETF plays. We added a number of quality and profitability factors to our ETF Screener.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Countertrend Rally

|

The recent bond rally has not been surprising. Nevertheless, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate. We now favor Caa within high yield.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

Shifty 50, Trending 200, And A Jolted Japan - Now Underweight

|

Comparisons of 50 and 200-day moving averages describe a bull market correction. Rally in risk-off yen consistent with correction and Japan underperformance. Downgrading Japan to underweight, upgrading U.S. and U.K. to marketweight, adding to Pacific ex. Japan overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Is the Supposed Decline in Global Credit an Ominous Sign for the Economy?

|

Global credit trends have been mixed by country, contrary to reports that global credit is slumping. Loan growth tends to be an inconsistent or lagging indicator.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Italy: Looking Past France and Banks

|

The political and macro outlook for Italy remains challenging. The Italian equity index ex-financials looks offers a way to capitalize on non-Italian factors. Globally-oriented Italian companies offer insulation against politically-driven market risks.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Housing and Autos - Upside Potential, but Also Big Problems

|

Housing and autos have performed above average this cycle, but I am dubious going forward.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Import Prices Edge Down

|

Mortgage applications show steady housing demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Import Prices Edge Down

|

Mortgage applications show steady housing demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

New Interactive Chart Feature: Customizing Mode (Regime) Analysis

|

Introducing a new Interactive Chart feature: moveable mode brackets. Users can click and drag a bracket or type in the desired thresholds from the settings menu. Changing the brackets updates the mode statistics at the bottom of the chart.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

|

D.R. Horton, Inc. is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. DHI is trading under 12x forward earnings. The stock has positive relative strength and is trading near its ten-year high.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Social Mood

|

Sentiment indicators for stocks often go from narrow polls regarding stocks to overall social mood. They currently argue for caution.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is the Market Marching Toward A Cyclical Peak?

|

Some warning signs, especially in sentiment, plus some macro and fundamental indicators. Technicals remain mostly bullish. Not enough to declare a peak is imminent. Lack of recession case means most severe bear case unlikely. Watch Fed.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Down Another Notch

|

Labor market continues to tighten. Weekly retail sales up slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Down Another Notch

|

Labor market continues to tighten. Weekly retail sales up slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

The French Election: Risk and Opportunity

|

Tail risks have risen for the French election. Nevertheless, we are considering closing out our underweight. Markets could see significant changes post-election.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Global Economy on a Tear, but Concerns on the Sentiment Front?

|

We review some of our favorite global economic indicators, which continue to support the case for strong global economic growth. Global sentiment data, which got ahead of itself some months ago, is now starting to edge down. We don't, however, see this as a near-term risk for the outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Minimizing Macro Exposures Through Tech & REITs Gathering Momentum

|

Cap-weighted Tech ETFs do a nice job of minimizing exposure to interest rates or oil prices. They have been showing relative strength this year. REITs take a major macro bet on falling interest rates and their trend has been improving as rates have stalled.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Mixed

|

OECD U.S. CLI post another modest gain. State coincident indexes show minimal odds of recession.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Mixed

|

OECD U.S. CLI post another modest gain. State coincident indexes show minimal odds of recession.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Oil Inflection Point

|

After 30 months of year-over-year builds, total U.S. petroleum inventories are poised to fall. Our total petroleum inventory indicator has now registered eight straight weekly bullish readings. We remain oil bulls.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

Balance of Power

|

Trend evidence alone leans bullish, but I am neutral in my strategy.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Mixed Employment Report

|

The establishment and household employment surveys gave vastly different views of the labor market in March. But the report does not change the outlook for monetary policy this year, as trends continue to look good.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Mixed Employment Report

|

The establishment and household employment surveys gave vastly different views of the labor market in March. But the report does not change the outlook for monetary policy this year, as trends continue to look good.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Surprise Agreement with Yellen

|

I think the Fed created a mess, and will be slow to tighten. I also think Yellen is correct about a focus on productivity, and labor force growth.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - April 2017

|

Growth sectors outperformed in Q1, calling into question reflation and broadening economy themes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Layoffs Remain On A Downward Trend

|

CEO confidence highest since 2004. Consumer comfort rises, but so does political divide.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Layoffs Remain On A Downward Trend

|

CEO confidence highest since 2004. Consumer comfort rises, but so does political divide.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Breaking Down Drawdowns and Recoveries

|

The idea that an investor can "win" by avoiding large drawdowns is an appealing strategy as markets become more competitive. However, defensive allocations designed to avoid large losses have the potential to miss out on the upside volatility required for outsized gains. In this publication, we explore drawdowns and evaluate their impact on long-term performance.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Solutions Quarterly | Quarterly

Sentiment Shifts

|

Bond flows have reversed big time. But high consumer confidence usually weighs on bonds. High yield looking better.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Choose Russia over South Africa

|

Recent events in South Africa underscore the significant political risks at play. Russia appears more attractive than South Africa from a macro, momentum, and valuation standpoint. We would overweight Russian equities relative to South African ones with a six to 12 month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Shows Softer Growth

|

Another strong month for ADP payrolls. Light vehicle sales decline. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Shows Softer Growth

|

Another strong month for ADP payrolls. Light vehicle sales decline. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM)

|

Sanderson Farms is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. SAFM is trading near an all-time high and valuations still reflect favorable reward/risk. The stocks has positive relative strength versus the broad market, Staples sector, and Packaged Foods & Meats sub-industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

March Sentiment/Valuation Update

|

Gallup Poll shows sour sentiment, but most other cyclical sentiment/valuation indicators show high risks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Trade Deficit Narrows

|

Factory orders up. NYC services activity and outlook strengthen. But weekly retail sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Trade Deficit Narrows

|

Factory orders up. NYC services activity and outlook strengthen. But weekly retail sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Outlook Improving, with Broad Participation Among DMs and EMs

|

The latest global PMIs point to above-trend growth with signs of more upside momentum in the coming months. Developed markets, led by Europe, continue to show clear relative strength. But emerging markets appear to be gaining solid footing.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Introducing the Cross Asset Correlation Matrix

|

The matrix should help those clients who invest in multiple asset classes. The tool allows users to see correlations among the most popular asset classes for a select group of countries/regions in local currencies. Each correlation coefficient is hyperlinked to a dynamically created chart showing the history of the correlation for that pair.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Q1 Benchmark Review: Lots of Noise, Little Volatility

|

S&P 500 best start since 2013, third best since 2000. Volatility historically low. Within broad advance, 4Q16 winners gave back some relative gains.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

ISM Manufacturing Moderates Slightly

|

Construction spending rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Moderates Slightly

|

Construction spending rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Quarterly ETF AA Model Update - Full Steam Ahead

|

The ETF AA Model is now recommending 100% equity exposure for April & Q2. Within equities, the biggest shift has been an increase in allocation to EFA.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Moving Average Studies Still Bullish on Stocks

|

Our moving average studies for stocks are bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Personal Income Up, But Spending Soft

|

Consumer sentiment tapers off slightly. Regional factory activity mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income Up, But Spending Soft

|

Consumer sentiment tapers off slightly. Regional factory activity mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ACWI Financials - A Barometer to Watch

|

Watch ACWI Financials for indications on where global equities are headed. Market correlation highest among sectors, high and rising versus bond yields and yield curve. Heaviest weight in ACWI and most regions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Some Good and Bad Macro News

|

Macro data leans bullish, but it is not without some concerns.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Time to Up Our Energy Exposure?

|

Several factors are converging to set up a rally in oil prices. OIH is our pick to play rising oil; however, we are not yet recommending the fund. We continue to recommend MLP exposure in the ETF Strategy Satellite Portfolio.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Q4 GDP Revised Up, Corporate Profits Rise

|

Electroindustry business confidence surges. Jobless claims decline. But consumer comfort also falls.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q4 GDP Revised Up, Corporate Profits Rise

|

Electroindustry business confidence surges. Jobless claims decline. But consumer comfort also falls.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Reducing Risk within the Financials Sector

|

Upgrading Insurance to overweight relative to the market. Recommending shifting some exposure from Banks to Insurers to become more defensive. Watching Banks closely for signs of further deterioration.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Yield Curve Convergence Shows Risk of Global Flattening

|

We closed out our U.S. curve steepener trade earlier this week. Since the GFC, major country yield curves have become more highly correlated. In recent days, they have converged. A flatter curve could reduce the attractiveness of global banks.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Brexit is Official!

|

The U.K.'s economy has remained relatively unscathed thus far despite higher policy uncertainty associated with the Brexit vote, which has mostly had a negative impact on the pound. Uncertainty will abound now that the two-year negotiations have begun. We outline some possible outcomes of Brexit, highlighting Prime Minister May's mandates on trade and the movement of EU citizens. If time permits, the most likely outcome is a FTA, but we wouldn't rule out a hard Brexit.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Indicators in Conflict

|

Some short-term indicators are showing signs of weakness, while long-term indicators remain bullish. History suggests paying more attention to bullish long-term message when indicators are in conflict. If worst is behind us, next leg higher could be disappointing.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Pending Home Sales Rebound Sharply

|

Mortgage purchase applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Pending Home Sales Rebound Sharply

|

Mortgage purchase applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Resetting Expectations: Updating Four Trump Trades

|

Post-election expectations leave market vulnerable to pullback. Risks low for cyclical peak, but could increase later in year. Value on watch for tactical downgrade. Remain neutral on small/large. Emphasize quality dividend stocks.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Favor Companies with Greater Cash Position

|

Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Shareholder Yield Selected Stocks Include: Ross Stores, Baker Hughes, American Express, Pfizer, Boeing, Texas Instruments, Nucor

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

|

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is on a long-term Focus Rank BUY rating. EXPD is more than one standard deviation oversold near-term, but relative strength remains positive. Overall sentiment is neutral, but analysts' recommendations are near most pessimistic levels in ten years.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Buybacks, Flows, NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll, Quarterly Valuation, and Household Balance Sheets

|

Household balance sheets show a record high in wealth. Nevertheless, is there enough income to sustain lofty levels of assets?

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Surges to Highest Since 2000

|

Existing home prices continue to rise. Advance goods trade deficit narrows. Regional activity continues to grow. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Surges to Highest Since 2000

|

Existing home prices continue to rise. Advance goods trade deficit narrows. Regional activity continues to grow. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Australia: Cautiously Optimistic

|

We are bullish on Australia due to favorable model readings and an accommodative monetary policy. Improving macroeconomics and relative valuations provide further support.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Closing Out The Steepener Trade

|

We are closing out our steepener trade. All of our yield curve models are in the neutral zone, and the trends are close to breaking down across the curve. The yield curve has flattened in each Fed tightening cycle since 1955.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

The Role of ETFs in the "Passive Bubble"

|

Flows out of mutual funds and into ETFs have been a consistent trend of late. Last week, Ned labeled the trend a possible bubble in passive investing. We take the other side of the argument and do not believe inflows into ETFs are signaling a bubble. Rather, ETFs should be considered a disruptive technology, not part of a bubble in the traditional sense.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Oil: Is it Time to Increase Exposure?

|

A reset in sentiment, improving inventory data and bullish seasonality, make a crude oil rally likely. We provide specific equities that should benefit.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Updating the Leaders, Plus a Look at Low Volatility

|

Leading stock market trend indicators are now questionable, with volatility a mild negative.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Markit Flash PMIs Suggest Softer Growth

|

Durable goods orders mixed. K.C. Fed manufacturing surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash PMIs Suggest Softer Growth

|

Durable goods orders mixed. K.C. Fed manufacturing surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why Has the Hard Data Not Followed Soft Data?

|

Hard data usually follows the soft survey data, but I think we will only see a moderate growth uptick.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Carnage or Correction? Expect a Single-Digit Sell-Off

|

Sell-off indicated by sentiment, breadth, composites, and risk-on / risk-off proxies. Single-digit correction more likely than bigger decline.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

New Home Sales Upward Trend Strengthens

|

Consumer comfort continues to rise. Jobless claims edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

New Home Sales Upward Trend Strengthens

|

Consumer comfort continues to rise. Jobless claims edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold ETF Strategy Recommendations

|

DXJ is the only fund on our list that we would sell at this time. Funds that we feel comfortable accumulating more of are VIG, MTUM, and VDC.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Six Telling Sector Trends

|

We see six sector relative strength trends approaching key support/resistance levels that, when tested, should help clarify what sector leadership should look like for 2017. Health Care and Technology are on the move up, testing resistance lines while Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Industrials are testing support.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

MBS Starting to Seriously Underperform

|

Spread measures have widened. We reaffirm our underweight recommendation on agency MBS.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Which Countries Would Be Hurt Most by U.S. Protectionism?

|

We discuss the potential impact of U.S. protectionism on its trading partners, examining countries' export exposure to the U.S. and elasticity estimates of import price and import- product substitution. Assuming broad-based protectionism, we suspect that Mexico and large portions of emerging Asia (namely southeast Asia) would be the most negatively impacted. Given the sheer size of their exposure to the U.S., Canada and Ireland would also be adversely affected. But if the Administration chooses to impose large tariffs selectively, as has been suggested, some countries could hypothetically benefit from protectionism.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Introducing a New International Equity Indicator

|

We have developed a new, common currency ACWI Scorecard. The new USD ACWI Scorecard framework allows international investors to compare relative momentum and valuation in a common currency framework. Emerging Markets continue to screen well in the USD ACWI Scorecard.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Sanguine on Spain

|

We would overweight Spanish equities relative to European peers with a six to 12 month view. Both technical and valuation indicators paint a favorable picture for Spanish equities. Spain's real economy continues to recover, confirming bullish market indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Existing Home Sales Retreat, But Upward Trend Intact

|

Mortgage applications edge down. Architecture billings outlook brightens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Retreat, But Upward Trend Intact

|

Mortgage applications edge down. Architecture billings outlook brightens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

|

Gilead Sciences is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. GILD is more than one standard deviation oversold with pessimistic sentiment. The stock is trading for under 10x trailing and forward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Continuing to Favor the Earnings Revisions Strategy

|

Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Repsol, Banco Santander, Sanofi, Siemens, Linde. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: WPI, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Intertek Group, Smiths Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

The Passive Investing Bubble

|

Passive investing looks to be overdone to me.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why Are Price/Earnings Ratios So Different?

|

Our median P/E is higher than widely followed aggregate P/Es due to cheap mega-caps. That does not mean that small-caps are significantly more expensive than large-caps.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Current Account Deficit Narrows

|

Freight activity strengthens. But weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Current Account Deficit Narrows

|

Freight activity strengthens. But weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing the Fair Value Models for Germany, Japan, and the U.K.

|

We introduce three new three-factor models for 10-year securities. Models driven by core inflation, expected monetary policy, and relative global competition.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

A Smart Beta Trend I'm Watching Carefully & a New Trade On India

|

The ratio of high beta to high quality has been making year-to-date lows. We want to see the relationship reverse as a sign that cyclical Value is reasserting leadership. India equity funds are showing momentum. We are recommending a trade on SCIF to play the relative strength.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Broad-Based Growth

|

The CFNAI rebounded in February, indicating economic activity strengthened notably from the start of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Broad-Based Growth

|

The CFNAI rebounded in February, indicating economic activity strengthened notably from the start of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Good and Bad News on Trend Data

|

Cyclical trend evidence still leans bullish, despite some divergences.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Flat, But Manufacturing Shines

|

LEI up nicely, pointing to stronger growth ahead. Consumer sentiment picks up. Labor market indexes show sustained strength. Housing affordability steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Flat, But Manufacturing Shines

|

LEI up nicely, pointing to stronger growth ahead. Consumer sentiment picks up. Labor market indexes show sustained strength. Housing affordability steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Debt Update

|

Global debt at records on both an absolute and relative to GDP basis. These debt loads add to risks should interest rates normalize.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Housing Starts Rise, Led By Single-Family

|

Philly Fed regional activity continues to expand. More signs of stronger labor demand and a tighter jobs market. Consumer economic expectations rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts Rise, Led By Single-Family

|

Philly Fed regional activity continues to expand. More signs of stronger labor demand and a tighter jobs market. Consumer economic expectations rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Taking the Top-Down to the ETF Level

|

We condense a presentation that we gave last week which broadly covers the logic behind our current ETF Strategy. Many indicators have led us to implement some short-term trades within longer-term bullish trends.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is Health Care Signaling Trouble for the Trump Rally?

|

If Republicans cannot pass the American Health Care Act and the Trump rally reverses, we see the most downside for Industrials and Materials and the most upside for Health Care.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Global Outlook Remains Robust

|

We take a broad look at some of our favorite global economic and sentiment indicators, which continue to confirm a healthy economic environment. We don't see the recent surge in sentiment as being an overly bearish signal for markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

What Happens to Bonds after a Third Fed Rate Hike?

|

FOMC raised rates for the third time, and is leaning toward three rate hikes in 2017. T-Bond and Eurodollar futures prices have tended to fall and the yield curve to flatten in the months following a third Fed rate hike. High yield spreads have tended to tighten short-term but have widened long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

Correction Camp Growing Crowded

|

Several indicators suggesting that bulls are growing increasingly nervous. Combination of a strong market and cautious sentiment make chances of a double-digit correction over the next month low.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Another Day of Soft/Hard Data Divide

|

While sentiment reports, including business and builder confidence (soft data), were very strong today, hard data continued to lag. Retail sales were up only modestly, although the y/y momentum strengthened. Inflation pressures continued to build. As a result, the GDPNow Model is currently tracking a soft 0.9% real GDP growth in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Get Your Free Publication