Recent Publications

Featured Stock Chart Bundle Update

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Closing out Western Union Company (WU), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), and RPM International Inc. (RPM). Based on combination of fundamental, technical, sentiment, and macro data.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

The Big Sentiment Divide

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Sentiment leans too optimistic, but there is a split likely based upon politics, so need trend weakness to confirm excessive optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Update on Hedged Japan Trade: DXJ as a Risk-On Investment?

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In contrast to historical tendencies, DXJ is acting as a risk-on investment. We would maintain a position in hedged Japan if our models remain constructive and trend evidence remains supportive.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Not Time to Get Lulled to Sleep

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Sentiment, earnings, valuation, and interest rate indicators have deteriorated. Tape remains bullish. We remain positive on U.S. equities, but are watching for signs of a weakening tape to reduce our outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Slower Private Sector Growth

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But freight activity trends improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Slower Private Sector Growth

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But freight activity trends improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What You Need to Know About the China Aggregate

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Bloomberg Barclays introducing new global bond indexes which include large portions of the China Aggregate. Global and EM bond managers will need to pay more attention to the China Agg. We have created a series of charts to help track developments in this important market.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Survivorship Bias and Big Mo Tape Update

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Leaving IBM in DJIA from 1939-1979 could have caused much higher Dow levels. Trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Bond Market Blows Bearish Opportunities

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The bond market doesn't appear to be ready to embrace a pivot to a secular bear at this time. As a result, we are increasing our bond exposure to 90% of benchmark duration from 85%. This tactical move does not alter our view of the secular risks facing bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth Ahead

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High optimism in the equipment finance industry. E-commerce market share holds at record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth Ahead

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High optimism in the equipment finance industry. E-commerce market share holds at record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Inflation and Valuations

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Inflation can corrode all kinds of indicators. I'm closely watching an inflation adjusted P/E ratio.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Four Moves to Better Align with our New Sector Model

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To get more in line with our recently launched sector model, we are upgrading Utilities to marketweight and downgrading Health Care to underweight. We are positioning Consumer Staples and Materials weights below benchmark. Only meaningful deviation is maintaining an overweight on Industrials.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Four Things You Should Know about our New Sector Model

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We introduce our new Sector Model.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Philly Fed Manufacturing Surges

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Hosing starts edged down for the month, but upward trend continues. Housing affordability declines. Consumer comfort rises, but expectations sag. Jobless claims still close to lowest since 1973.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ETFs Broadly Overbought -- Warning Sign or Has the Party Just Begun?

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The majority of domestic equity ETFs are overbought based on our longer-term metric. However, in most cases, the funds are in well-defined uptrends. We revamped our Mean Reversion Score report to help better identify major themes.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Philly Fed Manufacturing Surges

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Housing starts edged down for the month, but upward trend continues. Housing affordability declines. Consumer comfort rises, but expectations sag. Jobless claims still close to lowest since 1973.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing the Secular Bond Bear Watch Report

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The report summarizes all of the criteria needed to establish a secular bond bear.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

China's Balancing Act, and What the Central Bank is Doing About It

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Unbeknownst to some, China was the first of the world's major central banks to tighten policy this year. The tightening, however, has been unconventional. China's economy needs to slow in some areas, but it isn't strong enough to withstand aggressive and broad-based tightening. The benefit of the PBoC's non-traditional lending is that it allows the bank to control credit without having a sizable impact on broader economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Cutting Equity Exposure, Downgrading U.S.

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Shifting 5% from stocks to bonds, now 65% equities. Reducing exposure to U.S. and Canadian markets. Adding exposure to Pacific ex. Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Retail Sales And Inflation Rise

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Retail sales rose in January, while industrial production fell, led by utilities, and excess capacity remained abundant. CPI inflation climbed to 2.5%, led by energy. But our Inflation Timing Model held firmly in the moderate inflation zone.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales And Inflation Rise

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Retail sales rose in January, while industrial production fell, led by utilities, and excess capacity remained abundant. CPI inflation climbed to 2.5%, led by energy. But our Inflation Timing Model held firmly in the moderate inflation zone.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Greek Equities: Signs of Life?

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Greek equities have seen improved momentum in recent weeks. While there may be green shoots in the Greek story, several near-term challenges remain. We are underweight Greek equities with a two-month view until there is further clarity on domestic politics and/or bailout funds.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

AutoNation, Inc. (AN)

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AutoNation is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. AN is trading near 11x trailing and forward earnings. The stock is one standard deviation oversold and sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Mutual Fund's Cash at Record Lows, Plus Hedge Fund Holdings

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A number of stock market sentiment/valuation indicators show excessive optimism, but low interest rates temper concerns. Also, hedge fund sentiment on other markets.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Price Momentum Strategies Outperforming

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: ING Groep, Siemens, ABB AG, Linde AG, Endesa SA. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Reckitt Benckiser Group, Burberry Group, Wolseley, Evraz, Centrica.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

The Border Adjustment Tax: Winners and Losers

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The proposed corporate tax reform could stimulate domestic investment and production, which could lead to faster productivity growth. Exporters (e.g., capital goods, farm products) should benefit, while importers (e.g., apparel, refiners) could suffer. While a border adjustment tax would lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, it could also cause consumer prices to rise in the short-to-intermediate term. If interpreted as a subsidy to U.S. exporters, the border adjustment tax could invite protectionist responses from trading partners and lead to slower global trade and slower global growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

PPI Inflation On The Rise, Led By Energy

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Small businesses sustain post-election optimism. Weekly retail sales pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation On The Rise, Led By Energy

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Small businesses sustain post-election optimism. Weekly retail sales pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Surprisingly Consistent Quality Trade

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Low Quality has outperformed High Quality by the most in seven years. Look for Low Quality's relative strength to moderate as the cyclical bull matures.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Bond Bear Playbook - ETF Positioning Guide

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The NDR Macro team has become increasingly aware of the potential for a secular bear market in bonds. We look at various categories to create a playbook for ETF investors during a bond secular bear. Many of our favored funds are stretched to the upside but nonetheless, SPHB, KBWB, EZU, RSX, and IGHG are some of our favorite plays for a bond bear.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

How Big is China's Bond Market?

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Many investors are worried about the explosive growth of Chinese debt. But that doesn't automatically spell trouble for investors in Chinese bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

A Federal Budget Surplus In January

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CRE sentiment rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Federal Budget Surplus In January

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CRE sentiment rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NDR Supply and Demand Trend Evidence Update

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but volume demand has stalled somewhat.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment Retreats

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Also, import prices rise, led by fuel.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Retreats

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Also, import prices rise, led by fuel.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Abnormal to Normal, Passive to Active?

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Abnormalities have included extended rallies, low volatility, high correlation. Mutual fund and ETF flows reflect shift from active to passive management. When trends normalize, watch flows for signs of active management interest.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

GDP and Growth Reflections

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NDR expects economic growth to pick up this year, but also a look at some longer-term head winds.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

India: Still Underweight

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We remain underweight India. Momentum is weak, and valuations uncompelling. Modi continues to fail investors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - February 2017

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Utilities, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Financials would be biggest lower tax winners. Watch commodities, rates, and key sector relative strength trends for signs of "Risk-on." Sector summary pages show key relative strength trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Why We Are Worried About a Secular Pivot in Bonds

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We are increasingly worried that the bond market is undergoing a secular pivot from bullish to bearish. Investors are facing an asymmetric risk profile with limited upside and plenty of downside.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Consumer Comfort Marches Higher

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Jobless claims continue to dwindle. Wholesale inventories rise. Housing affordability slips within range.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Comfort Marches Higher

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Jobless claims continue to dwindle. Wholesale inventories rise. Housing affordability slips within range.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Growth ETFs Taking the Lead

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Cyclical Value ETFs are long-term overbought and Energy funds are reversing. Within the Growth universe, Tech is also highly overbought. We implement a trade idea on MTUM to get Growth exposure which is not as overbought.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Global Indicators So Far Point to Little Risk in the Outlook

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Our models and global leading indicators continue to paint a favorable outlook for the global economy in the coming months. Despite the numerous risks facing many of the world's economies, including several elections in Europe, a possible rise of protectionism in the U.S., and a potential debt crisis in China, the outlook among the world's largest economies remains favorable and suggests upside in the coming months.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Shows Strengthening Growth Momentum

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The CLI rose for the fifth straight month. Also, mortgage applications ticked up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Shows Strengthening Growth Momentum

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The CLI rose for the fifth straight month. Also, mortgage applications ticked up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Telling Your Story Through NDR's Interactive Charts

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Explorer's premium interactive charting features open up a new world of possibilities for presenting your views.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

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Apple is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. AAPL's price momentum ranking is elevated and rising. Relative strength is favorable compared to the broad market and Technology sector.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Featuring the Conference Board's Confidence Index

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High and rising consumer confidence bullish for economy -- but not so much for stocks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Trade Deficit Narrows Slightly At Yearend

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Labor turnover shows a tightening jobs market. Wholesale used vehicle prices steady. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Trade Deficit Narrows Slightly At Yearend

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Labor turnover shows a tightening jobs market. Wholesale used vehicle prices steady. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Moving the Goalposts While Fires Simmer in U.K., Europe

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Gilts remain poor values compared to other major bond markets based on expected real yields. The peripheral European debt trade is losing support and momentum. We were stopped out of Portugal. French and Italian spreads are elevated.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

What Happened to the Cyclical Value Trade?

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Growth's YTD outperformance has not been strong enough to shift the long-term trend away from Value. Macro indicators and beta factor analysis support cyclical Value on the next market up-leg.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

New Mean Reversion Sell Signals on Some High Flyers

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Mean reversion sell signals were concentrated in energy, commodity-driven markets, metals, and SMID dividend funds. We are waiting for overbought conditions and broad market optimism to work off before implementing trades in these areas.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Mostly Positive

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Employment trend indicators suggest continued job growth in early 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Mostly Positive

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Employment trend indicators suggest continued job growth in early 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Energy Sector - How to Play Higher Costs

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Oilfield Service (OFS) costs appear to have bottomed. This is the part of the cycle to own high-quality OFS equities. We update our Four Factor Strategy.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Was Dow 20,000 Fake News?

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Over the very long-term, the Dow Industries and S&P 500 have tracked each other almost exactly. Trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Job Growth Impresses, Wages Modest

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The January Employment Report should allow the Fed to stay on hold and let the economy run hot. We don't expect the Fed to raise rates before June. Also, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index near steady. Factory orders rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Job Growth Impresses, Wages Modest

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The January Employment Report should allow the Fed to stay on hold and let the economy run hot. We don't expect the Fed to raise rates before June. Also, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index near steady. Factory orders rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

When Will Interest Rates Bite?

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I see monetary evidence as slightly cautious, but I feature some charts to watch for a more decisive stance.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Another Groundhog Day

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Equities correcting excessive optimism. Valuations to improve as earnings growth rises globally. Emerging market valuations most attractive, supporting overweight allocation.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Nonfarm Productivity Up, But Trend Still Weak

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Light vehicle sales pull back. Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort trends higher.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Nonfarm Productivity Up, But Trend Still Weak

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Light vehicle sales pull back. Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort trends higher.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

High Beta Stalling

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High beta trades have slowed their ascent of late. We would like to see a less overbought condition and broad market pessimism before getting back in.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

More Tax Analysis: Interest Expense and Small/Mid-Caps

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Removing interest tax deduction would remove 25-65% of the benefit of lower tax rates for the S&P 500. Small-cap EPS would benefit more from tax cuts. Mid-caps would benefit as well, and they have not outperformed as much as small-caps since the election.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Strong Inflows Boost High Yield

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High yield topped all other bond sectors in January. Munis rebounded from tax-loss selling. MBS resumed its underperformance.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Beginning the Year on a Strong Note

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The global economy began the year on a strong note, according to the latest global PMIs, with several forward-looking indicators pointing to more upside momentum in the coming months. Most of the world's major developed economies reported new highs in their manufacturing PMIs, while trends among the BRIC economies were mixed to better. The latest PMI data supports our constructive view on most of the world's major economies. We are, however, aware of the risks.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Off To A Good Start In 2017

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ADP private payrolls jump. Construction spending down slightly. Mortgage apps decline. State leading indexes mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Off To A Good Start In 2017

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ADP private payrolls jump. Construction spending down slightly. Mortgage apps decline. State leading indexes mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Russia: Recent Policy Moves Reaffirm Bullish Thesis

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Imminent Russian government currency intervention is a net positive for Russian equities. We would see any near-term FX-driven equity weakness as a buying opportunity. Russia remains one of the most attractive EM equity markets, independent of Trump-related factors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

January Sentiment/Valuation Update

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The market still appears overvalued with high stock asset allocation. Also, a look at the Gallup Poll on Presidents versus stock prices.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

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Southwest Airlines is on a BUY rating across the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. LUV has favorable relative strength against the broad market, Industrials, and Airlines. It also has a top decile valuation ranking and top quintile profitability ranking.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Pulls Back Slightly

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Compensation pressures ease in Q4. Existing home prices post another strong month. Homeownership up slightly, but tight inventory still an issue. All regional factory activity indexes show expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Pulls Back Slightly

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Compensation pressures ease in Q4. Existing home prices post another strong month. Homeownership up slightly, but tight inventory still an issue. All regional factory activity indexes show expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

G7 and BRIC Outlook: More Upside in 2017?

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We provide our quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and regions. Compared to our last economic outlook in November, economic conditions have improved among most of the world's largest economies and will likely continue to in the coming months. This suggests a continuation of the global economic rebound and adds definitive evidence that global recession risks are over.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Still Favor U.S. over European HY

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We still favor U.S. high yield over European high yield, although the advantage is dissipating.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Cyclical or Defensive? Watch Staples versus Materials

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Watch Consumer Staples to Materials relative strength and CCI trends to determine if sector leadership is about to turn defensive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Update - Shifting 14% Into Bonds with Some Caveats

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Model now recommends 72% exposure to equities, 28% exposure to bonds. Within equities, the model recommends adding exposure to QQQ, EFA, and VWO. Within fixed income, the model recommends the majority of exposure to JNK and EMB.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Personal Income and Spending Up

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Pending home sales rise. Texas factory activity expands. Electroindustry business conditions continue to improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income and Spending Up

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Pending home sales rise. Texas factory activity expands. Electroindustry business conditions continue to improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trend Following - Positives and Negatives

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Trend evidence leans bullish. I look at some positives and negatives when using trend based indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Trade Deficit Weighs on Q4 GDP

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State coincident indexes show broader growth base. Consumer sentiment up. But durable goods orders decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Trade Deficit Weighs on Q4 GDP

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State coincident indexes show broader growth base. Consumer sentiment up. But durable goods orders decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

GDP Real Growth at 1.9% for 2016

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Year-to-year growth rate for the last two years was 1.9% and 1.9% respectively, and 2.6% and 1.6% respectively, depending on which statistics are used.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why I am Still Wary of Oil-Based CPI Growth

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Core inflation has been pretty stable, but rising CPI inflation still cuts away at purchasing power.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

RO/RO on a Roll... Until the Correlations Roll Over

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Watching Risk-On Index, Risk-Off Index, and RO/RO Ratio. Ratio has regained indicator relevance, at least for now. Current implications bullish -- divergences would be warnings.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

A New Era for Sector Allocation (Part 1)

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The old disinflationary era was dominated by Consumer and Tech sectors. We expect the new inflationary era to show more of a Consumer, Commodity and Financials leadership mix.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Finding a Dividend Fund for the Current Environment

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We look for funds that have exposure to the NDR overweight sectors and strong balance sheet characteristics.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Leading Indicators Show Continued Robust Expansion

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CFNAI strengthens at yearend. New home sales decline. Jobless claims up. Consumer comfort steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Leading Indicators Show Continued Robust Expansion

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CFNAI strengthens at yearend. New home sales decline. Jobless claims up. Consumer comfort steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

DJ20K Finally Here. What's Next?

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The DJIA took longer than normal to break above 20K. The DJIA is better positioned from valuation and technical standpoints than when it crossed 10K in 1999.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Lowest Bond Exposure in 22 Years!

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Last week we further reduced our bond exposure to 85% of benchmark duration from 90%. We are increasingly worried that the bond market is undergoing a secular pivot from bullish to bearish. The market took a pause from the yield uptrend starting in mid-December and began to normalize.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Where's the Best Regional Performance After Global Recession End?

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Despite compelling evidence that end of global recession is associated with strong equity market performance, regional trends aren't as clear cut. The two countries/regions where we saw more clear-cut results were the U.K. and emerging markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Continued Steady Appreciation In Home Values

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Mortgage applications rise. Freight activity remains volatile. Business employment dynamics show slower job gains.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Continued Steady Appreciation In Home Values

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Mortgage applications rise. Freight activity remains volatile. Business employment dynamics show slower job gains.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Still Skeptical on Turkish Equities (Part 2)

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The lira continues to present a headwind to the Turkish equity outlook. Turkish dependency on dollar funding and rates remains high. The political calendar should continue to dampen sentiment through the spring.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Stock and Bond Sentiment Updates

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A lot of uncertainty may tame the danger of overoptimism on stocks. Sentiment on bonds still fairly pessimistic.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Stocks with Greater Shareholder Yield

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Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Operating Cash Flow Yield, Price Momentum, Shareholder Yield. Selected Stocks Include: Omnicom Group, Baker Hughes, Citigroup, Boeing, Caterpillar, Hewlett Packard.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Aetna Inc. (AET)

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Aetna is on a BUY rating for the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. It has a top 5% valuation ranking. AET's Sentiment Score reflects overall pessimism.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Dividend Strategies Amid Rising Rates

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Dividend Payers and Dividend Growers have outperformed due to non-traditional dividend sectors. We continue to recommend selective dividend investing, emphasizing balance sheets, valuations, dividend growth, and sector selection.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Can Protectionism Work to the U.S. Economy's Benefit?

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Trade protectionism could provide a fleeting short-term boost to economic growth. But tit-for-tat response from trading partners would quickly erode this benefit. In the longer-term, protectionism could lead to slower growth, higher inflation, and lower productivity.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Existing Home Sales Soften At Yearend

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Markit flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI up. Richmond Fed activity continues to strengthen. Weekly retail sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Soften At Yearend

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Markit flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI up. Richmond Fed activity continues to strengthen. Weekly retail sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Update on EM Bond Outlook

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Although the near-term outlook for EM bonds has improved some, we are maintaining our neutral rating for now. Valuation remains a concern. Potentially large risk factors warrant a risk-averse stance. High yield has been a better way to go.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Miners on the Move (Again)

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Gold and silver miner ETFs have been adding to their 2016 gains in January. They remain overbought but the trend in real interest rates and seasonality suggest the move may have a bit further to go.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Trend Evidence Leans Bullish, but....

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but rising short-term rates downgrade rating.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Three Risks to Our Oil & Gas Outlook

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Current sentiment and positioning make oil and natural gas vulnerable to a pullback. Abnormal weather and ramping shale production could spur a mild correction. Despite the near-term risks, we remain confident oil and gas bulls.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Is The Market Poised for a Post-Inauguration Slump?

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The post-election rally is the strongest in the 12 cases when the incumbent party has lost. A quick reversal from extreme optimism could set the stage for the next rally.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Employment, Oil, Inflation, and Profits

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Employment indicators show slowing growth. Oil prices can impact inflation, growth, and profits.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Does the Rising Rate Story Have Legs?

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Rising rate trade is likely to persist in 2017. Stick with Banks and Hotel REITs, Avoid Utilities and other REITs.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Watching "Watch" Reports to Gauge Downside Potential

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With optimism excessive, sell-off likely. Rally Watch, Top Watch, and Bear Watch reports will reflect downside risk. Current implication -- expect decline in low single digits, then recovery.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ETFs Tracking Alternative Strategies

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Many Alternative ETFs actually correlate highly with stocks or bonds. Most options are lower volatility than stocks. The ETF Portfolio tool can help you assess where an alternative fund fits in your portfolios.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

A Wave Of Positive Economic Reports

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Today's economic releases highlight a positive trend in housing, stronger factory activity, a tightening labor market, and surging consumer and business optimism. This bodes well for economic growth in early 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Wave Of Positive Economic Reports

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Today's economic releases highlight a positive trend in housing, stronger factory activity, a tightening labor market, and surging consumer and business optimism. This bodes well for economic growth in early 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Credit Getting Expensive (Again)

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We are reducing our duration exposure to 85% from 90%. Once again, credit is getting expensive, but there is further room for spread compression. If you're an absolute return player, then further upside progress in credit may be difficult to achieve. If you are more interested in relative returns, then high yield continues to outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

What You Need to Know About the Chinese Yuan

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China has several, even contradictory, motives for the direction of the yuan. But the need for stability will likely prevail. If the dollar were to appreciate broadly, it increases pressure on China to orchestrate a measured depreciation. That won't be easy, but we think it's feasible in the near-term. If China truly wanted a much weaker currency, it would likely have one if it moved to a free float.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production and Inflation Rise

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Industrial production and CPI inflation picked up at yearend, indicating building economic momentum. Also, the HMI and the Empire Business Leaders Survey showed business sentiment remains high at the start of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production and Inflation Rise

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Industrial production and CPI inflation picked up at yearend, indicating building economic momentum. Also, the HMI and the Empire Business Leaders Survey showed business sentiment remains high at the start of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Hard Brexit Could Weigh on Gilts

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The outlook for the U.K. market remains our biggest disagreement with our model. The market is ignoring economic fundamentals. Gilts are also poor values compared to other major bond markets based on expected real yields.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Still Skeptical on Turkish Equities (Part 1)

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We remain underweight Turkish equities with a six to 12 month view. Despite recent rallies, momentum remains weak. Valuations have improved, but are not at extremes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Tenneco Inc. (TEN)

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Tenneco is on a BUY rating for the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. TEN is trading near 10x trailing and forward earnings. Favorable relative strength against the broad market, Discretionary sector, and Auto Components industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

What Extreme Crowd Optimism Looks Like

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We are seeing some of the largest jumps in optimism in history. I am wary, but it comes after years of pessimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Sticking with Valuation and Price Momentum Strategies

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, LVMH Moet Hennessy, Fresenius SE, Schneider Electric, Cie de Saint-Gobain. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Sky, Tesco, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Five Sentiment Changes Since Election

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Optimism increasing, but not extreme enough to suggest a bull market peak. Insider activity and economic surveys showing biggest jumps. Sentiment favors large-caps and Value.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Cyclical Value Overbought Relative to Defensive Value

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Energy & Financials have driven the market higher during this bull market while defensive Value sectors have lagged. The trend is now becoming long-term overbought and a broad market correction would likely relieve this condition.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Empire Factory Activity Grows Modestly

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Outlook remains positive, while price pressures in the region pick up markedly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Empire Factory Activity Grows Modestly

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Outlook remains positive, while price pressures in the region pick up markedly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trend Clearly Up, but Momentum Questions

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There is nothing more bullish for stocks than rising prices, but there are some questions on upside momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Up, Led By Vehicles

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Consumer sentiment near steady. PPI inflation continues to accelerate. Business inventories jump. Budget deficit stays on a widening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Up, Led By Vehicles

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Consumer sentiment near steady. PPI inflation continues to accelerate. Business inventories jump. Budget deficit stays on a widening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Housing Outlook - Has Potential, but Could Disappoint

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I have mixed feelings on housing, and I feature some of the key bullish and bearish indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - January 2017

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Expect sector return dispersion to widen in 2017. Health Care, Industrials, Energy and Rate Sensitive could be volatile. Sector summaries on pages 4-14.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Import Prices Rise

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Import Prices Rise

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trump Trade Reversion to Reality

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Post-election moves have led to sentiment extremes and turning points. ACWI, Japan, and dollar appear to be topping. Emerging markets, bonds, gold and yen have been recovering.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ETF Sentiment Remains Highly Optimistic

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Our ETF Speculation Index, asset flows, and long-term mean reversion suggest that sentiment is extremely optimistic for the broad market and more granular funds as well. We are closing our recommendation on XBI given less mean reversion potential and political uncertainty.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is 2.60% the Key Level?

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A 10-year Treasury yield above 2.76% would indicate significant technical and fundamental damage, and likely signal the end of the secular bull market for bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

It Looks Like We're Out of the Woods

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Our Global Recession Probability Model has given us official confirmation that global recession risk is over. Several economic and sentiment indicators have been confirming the improvement in the global economy, many of which well before the Trump-induced rally. These developments bode well for both the global economic and equity outlook over the next several months.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Why We Remain Underweight Mexican Equities

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We remain underweight Mexican equities with a six to 12 month view. Quantitative indicators suggest thin grounds for optimism. The policy winds from Washington remain frigid.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

OECD U.S. CLI Continues to Improve

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Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Continues to Improve

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Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Five Reasons to Make NDR.com Part of Your Routine

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We offer a quick overview of the interesting and dynamic content available under the Explorer tab.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

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JetBlue is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. JBLU is trading near 10x trailing earnings, which is at a discount to other Airlines. The stock has favorable relative strength to the broad market and Industrials sector.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Featuring Some of the Most Bullish, and Bearish Sentiment/Valuation Indications

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Relative sentiment/valuation indicators remain bullish, as long as interest rates and inflation stay low. Otherwise, they suggest we are late in the bull cycle.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

How Much Could Tax Cuts Boost Earnings?

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Tax cuts could boost S&P 500 EPS by 7-18%. Model suggests macro conditions improving for earnings independent of tax cuts. Forward P/Es remain high, even after taking tax cuts into account.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Part-Time (and Older) America

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The increase in voluntary part-time employment is partly due to demographics. It suggests that wage growth may remain relatively subdued, even as the labor market approaches full employment.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Surges

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The increase bodes well for both economic and stock market performance. Wholesale inventories jump. JOLTS show strong and steady labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Surges

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The increase bodes well for both economic and stock market performance. Wholesale inventories jump. JOLTS show strong and steady labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Technical Update

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The bond market is normalizing. We remain defensively positioned, and are looking to further reduce exposure once this countertrend rally stalls.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Employment Trends Solid For Early 2017

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Also, wholesale used vehicle prices edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Employment Trends Solid For Early 2017

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Also, wholesale used vehicle prices edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Favoring Developed Europe ETFs & Staying Away from Emerging Markets ETFs

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We particularly find hedged Europe ETFs attractive due to sentiment and trend evidence. Opposite sentiment and trend evidence leads us to a bearish conclusion on Emerging Market ETFs.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

A Mixed, but Leaning Bullish Trend Picture

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Trend evidence remains bullish, but with a few problems.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Natural Gas in 2017 (Part I)

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After a rough start to 2016, natural gas finished as the best performing commodity for the year. We see evidence of a structurally tighter market.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Wage Pressures Building

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The rebound in wage growth in December provides some support for three rate hikes next year. But the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy could still limit it to two, which is where we remain for now. CEO confidence surges. Factory orders decline, but y/y trend improves. Trade deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Wage Pressures Building

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The rebound in wage growth in December provides some support for three rate hikes next year. But the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy could still limit it to two, which is where we remain for now. CEO confidence surges. Factory orders decline, but y/y trend improves. Trade deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Doubtful on Department Stores

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We believe Department Stores still have much work to do to "right-size" their square footage and proof that the transition is complete would be stabilizing-to-improving market share of total retail sales.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

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