Recent Publications

Is The Market Poised for a Post-Inauguration Slump?

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The post-election rally is the strongest in the 12 cases when the incumbent party has lost. A quick reversal from extreme optimism could set the stage for the next rally.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Employment, Oil, Inflation, and Profits

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Employment indicators show slowing growth. Oil prices can impact inflation, growth, and profits.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Does the Rising Rate Story Have Legs?

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Rising rate trade is likely to persist in 2017. Stick with Banks and Hotel REITs, Avoid Utilities and other REITs.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Watching "Watch" Reports to Gauge Downside Potential

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With optimism excessive, sell-off likely. Rally Watch, Top Watch, and Bear Watch reports will reflect downside risk. Current implication -- expect decline in low single digits, then recovery.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ETFs Tracking Alternative Strategies

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Many Alternative ETFs actually correlate highly with stocks or bonds. Most options are lower volatility than stocks. The ETF Portfolio tool can help you assess where an alternative fund fits in your portfolios.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

A Wave Of Positive Economic Reports

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Today's economic releases highlight a positive trend in housing, stronger factory activity, a tightening labor market, and surging consumer and business optimism. This bodes well for economic growth in early 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Wave Of Positive Economic Reports

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Today's economic releases highlight a positive trend in housing, stronger factory activity, a tightening labor market, and surging consumer and business optimism. This bodes well for economic growth in early 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Credit Getting Expensive (Again)

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We are reducing our duration exposure to 85% from 90%. Once again, credit is getting expensive, but there is further room for spread compression. If you're an absolute return player, then further upside progress in credit may be difficult to achieve. If you are more interested in relative returns, then high yield continues to outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

What You Need to Know About the Chinese Yuan

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China has several, even contradictory, motives for the direction of the yuan. But the need for stability will likely prevail. If the dollar were to appreciate broadly, it increases pressure on China to orchestrate a measured depreciation. That won't be easy, but we think it's feasible in the near-term. If China truly wanted a much weaker currency, it would likely have one if it moved to a free float.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production and Inflation Rise

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Industrial production and CPI inflation picked up at yearend, indicating building economic momentum. Also, the HMI and the Empire Business Leaders Survey showed business sentiment remains high at the start of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production and Inflation Rise

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Industrial production and CPI inflation picked up at yearend, indicating building economic momentum. Also, the HMI and the Empire Business Leaders Survey showed business sentiment remains high at the start of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Hard Brexit Could Weigh on Gilts

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The outlook for the U.K. market remains our biggest disagreement with our model. The market is ignoring economic fundamentals. Gilts are also poor values compared to other major bond markets based on expected real yields.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Still Skeptical on Turkish Equities (Part 1)

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We remain underweight Turkish equities with a six to 12 month view. Despite recent rallies, momentum remains weak. Valuations have improved, but are not at extremes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Tenneco Inc. (TEN)

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Tenneco is on a BUY rating for the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. TEN is trading near 10x trailing and forward earnings. Favorable relative strength against the broad market, Discretionary sector, and Auto Components industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

What Extreme Crowd Optimism Looks Like

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We are seeing some of the largest jumps in optimism in history. I am wary, but it comes after years of pessimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Sticking with Valuation and Price Momentum Strategies

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, LVMH Moet Hennessy, Fresenius SE, Schneider Electric, Cie de Saint-Gobain. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Sky, Tesco, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Five Sentiment Changes Since Election

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Optimism increasing, but not extreme enough to suggest a bull market peak. Insider activity and economic surveys showing biggest jumps. Sentiment favors large-caps and Value.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Cyclical Value Overbought Relative to Defensive Value

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Energy & Financials have driven the market higher during this bull market while defensive Value sectors have lagged. The trend is now becoming long-term overbought and a broad market correction would likely relieve this condition.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Empire Factory Activity Grows Modestly

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Outlook remains positive, while price pressures in the region pick up markedly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Empire Factory Activity Grows Modestly

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Outlook remains positive, while price pressures in the region pick up markedly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trend Clearly Up, but Momentum Questions

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There is nothing more bullish for stocks than rising prices, but there are some questions on upside momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Up, Led By Vehicles

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Consumer sentiment near steady. PPI inflation continues to accelerate. Business inventories jump. Budget deficit stays on a widening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Up, Led By Vehicles

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Consumer sentiment near steady. PPI inflation continues to accelerate. Business inventories jump. Budget deficit stays on a widening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Housing Outlook - Has Potential, but Could Disappoint

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I have mixed feelings on housing, and I feature some of the key bullish and bearish indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - January 2017

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Expect sector return dispersion to widen in 2017. Health Care, Industrials, Energy and Rate Sensitive could be volatile. Sector summaries on pages 4-14.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Import Prices Rise

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Import Prices Rise

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trump Trade Reversion to Reality

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Post-election moves have led to sentiment extremes and turning points. ACWI, Japan, and dollar appear to be topping. Emerging markets, bonds, gold and yen have been recovering.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ETF Sentiment Remains Highly Optimistic

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Our ETF Speculation Index, asset flows, and long-term mean reversion suggest that sentiment is extremely optimistic for the broad market and more granular funds as well. We are closing our recommendation on XBI given less mean reversion potential and political uncertainty.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is 2.60% the Key Level?

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A 10-year Treasury yield above 2.76% would indicate significant technical and fundamental damage, and likely signal the end of the secular bull market for bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

It Looks Like We're Out of the Woods

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Our Global Recession Probability Model has given us official confirmation that global recession risk is over. Several economic and sentiment indicators have been confirming the improvement in the global economy, many of which well before the Trump-induced rally. These developments bode well for both the global economic and equity outlook over the next several months.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Why We Remain Underweight Mexican Equities

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We remain underweight Mexican equities with a six to 12 month view. Quantitative indicators suggest thin grounds for optimism. The policy winds from Washington remain frigid.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

OECD U.S. CLI Continues to Improve

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Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Continues to Improve

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Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Five Reasons to Make NDR.com Part of Your Routine

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We offer a quick overview of the interesting and dynamic content available under the Explorer tab.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

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JetBlue is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. JBLU is trading near 10x trailing earnings, which is at a discount to other Airlines. The stock has favorable relative strength to the broad market and Industrials sector.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Featuring Some of the Most Bullish, and Bearish Sentiment/Valuation Indications

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Relative sentiment/valuation indicators remain bullish, as long as interest rates and inflation stay low. Otherwise, they suggest we are late in the bull cycle.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

How Much Could Tax Cuts Boost Earnings?

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Tax cuts could boost S&P 500 EPS by 7-18%. Model suggests macro conditions improving for earnings independent of tax cuts. Forward P/Es remain high, even after taking tax cuts into account.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Part-Time (and Older) America

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The increase in voluntary part-time employment is partly due to demographics. It suggests that wage growth may remain relatively subdued, even as the labor market approaches full employment.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Surges

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The increase bodes well for both economic and stock market performance. Wholesale inventories jump. JOLTS show strong and steady labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Surges

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The increase bodes well for both economic and stock market performance. Wholesale inventories jump. JOLTS show strong and steady labor demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Technical Update

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The bond market is normalizing. We remain defensively positioned, and are looking to further reduce exposure once this countertrend rally stalls.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Employment Trends Solid For Early 2017

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Also, wholesale used vehicle prices edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Employment Trends Solid For Early 2017

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Also, wholesale used vehicle prices edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Favoring Developed Europe ETFs & Staying Away from Emerging Markets ETFs

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We particularly find hedged Europe ETFs attractive due to sentiment and trend evidence. Opposite sentiment and trend evidence leads us to a bearish conclusion on Emerging Market ETFs.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

A Mixed, but Leaning Bullish Trend Picture

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Trend evidence remains bullish, but with a few problems.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Natural Gas in 2017 (Part I)

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After a rough start to 2016, natural gas finished as the best performing commodity for the year. We see evidence of a structurally tighter market.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Wage Pressures Building

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The rebound in wage growth in December provides some support for three rate hikes next year. But the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy could still limit it to two, which is where we remain for now. CEO confidence surges. Factory orders decline, but y/y trend improves. Trade deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Wage Pressures Building

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The rebound in wage growth in December provides some support for three rate hikes next year. But the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy could still limit it to two, which is where we remain for now. CEO confidence surges. Factory orders decline, but y/y trend improves. Trade deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Doubtful on Department Stores

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We believe Department Stores still have much work to do to "right-size" their square footage and proof that the transition is complete would be stabilizing-to-improving market share of total retail sales.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

More Economic Improvement, but Inflation Questions

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Rising animal spirits should be good for economic growth. Inflation pressures are rising, but are hard to see.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Holds Up

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Employment indicators point to a tighter labor market. Light vehicle sales at a record high in 2016. Consumer comfort down slightly. Industrial and office market conditions still positive.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Holds Up

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Employment indicators point to a tighter labor market. Light vehicle sales at a record high in 2016. Consumer comfort down slightly. Industrial and office market conditions still positive.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Dogs of the World

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We apply the Dogs of the Dow strategy to Europe and global markets.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Munis Muddied Outlook

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Municipal bonds remain attractive, especially for buy-and-hold investors in high tax brackets.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Online Labor Demand Picks Up Modestly

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NYC services activity and outlook surge. Weekly retail sales disappoint. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Online Labor Demand Picks Up Modestly

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NYC services activity and outlook surge. Weekly retail sales disappoint. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Emerging Markets Indicator Update

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Emerging Markets continue to dominate the ACWI Scorecard. Equity market momentum has been resilient. We remain wary of further downside risks to select EM currencies.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM)

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Sanderson Farms is on a BUY rating across the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. SAFM is trading near 11x forward earnings, which is at a substantial discount to other Packaged Foods & Meats stocks. The stock's relative strength against the market, sector, and industry are all positive.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Global Economy Solid, But Price Pressures Mounting

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The global economy ended the year on a positive note, according to the latest global PMIs, with signs that the outlook should continue to improve over the next several months. Price pressures surged, which could potentially put pressure on company margins. Trends were positive among countries, with most of the world's largest economies reporting new highs in their PMIs.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

2016 Year-End Sentiment/Valuation Update

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End of year sentiment/valuation readings suggest potential problems ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

2016 Benchmark Review: Year of Reversals

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After worst start in history, U.S. equities posted solid gains and outpaced bonds by over 10%. Commodities and related equities were top performers. Value and small-caps gained leadership throughout the year.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

What You Need to Know about Repatriation

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Repatriation of overseas earnings could provide a boost to the dollar against major foreign currencies.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Quarterly Update - Maintaining the Bullish Course

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The model continues to recommend 86% equity exposure. More granularly, within equity, the model continues to strongly favor the U.S. Within fixed income, the model favors high yield.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

The Market I Worry Most About in 2017

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Several factors suggest rising Chinese bond yields. The key question for 2017 is how high will China allow interest rates to rise before it impacts the real economy.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Ends 2016 On A High Note

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ISM new orders and production jump. Construction spending strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Ends 2016 On A High Note

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ISM new orders and production jump. Construction spending strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Review of Hotline Trend Signals and Daily Sentiment for 2016

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Upon review of 2016 major news items, Hotline trend signals, and daily sentiment, the majority of trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Factory Activity Expands Across All Regions

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Our Model projects a modest pickup in the ISM Manufacturing Index at yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Factory Activity Expands Across All Regions

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Our Model projects a modest pickup in the ISM Manufacturing Index at yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

2016 Theatrics ... Ending with Applause

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We review our 2016 recommendations - strong year was expected. Assessing global asset allocation, ACWI sector, and regional positioning.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Global Debt Update

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A look at the global debt situation, which is at record highs on both an absolute and relative to GDP ratio basis.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Widens

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Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort cools slightly. Texas services activity and outlook surge.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Advance Goods Trade Deficit Widens

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Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort cools slightly. Texas services activity and outlook surge.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Still Doubtful on Discretionary

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Consumer Discretionary's underperformance on an equal-weighted basis and Discretionary's slowing relative earnings growth, adds to our conviction that the sector's relative strength peak in 2015 marked the beginning of a multi-year correction.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Global Debt Climbing, EMs Leading the Surge

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Global nonfinancial debt climbed to a record high as a share of GDP. Developed markets continue to hold the larger proportion of debt, but trends remain subdued. Fiscal stimulus, however, may boost public debt ratios in the coming years. Emerging markets encompass a smaller share of the global debt burden, but they are catching up. Much of this is due to China, although several other EMs are to blame.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

State Leading Indexes Show Positive Outlook Across More States

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Electroindustry business confidence jumps. But pending home sales slip. Weekly retail sales trend remains soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Leading Indexes Show Positive Outlook Across More States

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Electroindustry business confidence jumps. But pending home sales slip. Weekly retail sales trend remains soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Details on Stock/Bond Sentiment, Plus Insiders/Outsiders

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More charts on the bond/stock ratio and relative sentiment, plus a look at the individual investor in stocks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Operating Cash Flow Yield Strategy Thriving

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Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Operating Cash Flow Yield, Price Momentum. Selected Stocks Include: Omnicom Group, Baker Hughes, Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, Hewlett Packard.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

GameStop Corp. (GME)

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GameStop Corp. is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. GME is trading for under 7x forward and trailing earnings. The stock is reversing from oversold and pessimistic conditions.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Exceeds Prior Cycle High on Expectations

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Another new high in home prices. Sentiment soars in Texas, Richmond.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Exceeds Prior Cycle High on Expectations

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Another new high in home prices. Sentiment soars in Texas, Richmond.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Two Trades Heading into the New Year

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Consumer Staples and developed Europe equity funds are beginning to reverse in our relative strength rankings. A continuation of dollar strength would add a macro tailwind to each of these areas.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Trend Bullish but Too Much Optimism and Rising Rates are Hurdles

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Trend evidence for stocks leans bullish. A look at the trend evidence for the stocks/bonds ratio under several different conditions.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Potential Reason for January Weakness

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Equity ETF flows have been weaker than equity mutual fund flows in January. As ETFs' share of total flows has grown, January has lost its reputation as one of the stock market's better months.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment At A 12-Year High

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New home sales advance.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment At A 12-Year High

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New home sales advance.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

2017 Macro Prospects - Are My Concerns "Scrooge" Noise or Legit?

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The weight of the economic evidence looks somewhat better for next year, but I have concerns on interest rates, debt, oil prices and labor force growth.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The 20K Nikkei, Sentiment Extremes, and a Strategy for Japan

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Nikkei near 20,000 with sentiment extreme. After sentiment improvement and on renewed momentum, add to overweight Japan exposure.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Comment | Weekly

Christmas Packaging for a Sector Portfolio

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Upgrading Containers & Packaging Industry to Overweight. First part of a series in finding Value names in cyclical sectors

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Q3 GDP Revised Up, But Signs of Softer Growth In Q4

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Q3 real GDP growth was revised up to its fastest pace in two years, led by stronger capex. Improving momentum in capex goods orders bodes well for future factory activity. Consumer economic optimism surged. But CFNAI and personal income and spending data show economic growth has softened in Q4. The LEI supports an outlook for moderate growth in 1H 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q3 GDP Revised Up, But Signs of Softer Growth In Q4

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Q3 real GDP growth was revised up to its fastest pace in two years, led by stronger capex. Improving momentum in capex goods orders bodes well for future factory activity. Consumer economic optimism surged. But CFNAI and personal income and spending data show economic growth has softened in Q4. The LEI supports an outlook for moderate growth in 1H 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Implementation of ETF Strategy Recommendations

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We take alook at some of the common questions we get regarding implementation of the ETF Strategy Model Portfolio as well as the tactical ideas.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Will Deregulation Change Everything?

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Deregulation just partially explains a country's ability to register strong productivity growth. Among deregulatory measures, the ease in starting a business and paying taxes are the most conducive to stronger productivity growth. Hindrances at the state and local government level may make deregulation, particularly in the U.S., more difficult than many may think.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

State Coincident Indexes Show Near-Zero Odds Of Recession

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Existing home sales continue to advance. Architecture billings near steady. Freight activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Near-Zero Odds Of Recession

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Existing home sales continue to advance. Architecture billings near steady. Freight activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Short-Term Sentiment Update - Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Dollar

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Optimism has been excessive on stocks and the dollar, while pessimism is extreme in bonds and gold.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

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D.R. Horton, Inc. is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. DHI is more than one standard deviation oversold, which reflects upside reversion potential. Valuations indicate favorable reward/risk as stock is trading for under 10x forward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Looking for Resurgence in Price Momentum Trade

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, LVMH Moet Hennessy, ABB, Fresenius SE, Koninklijke Philips. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: WPP, BP, Tesco, Rolls-Royce, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Why You Should Care About the Chinese Dumping of Treasurys

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China liquidates a sizable amount of U.S. Treasurys. Selling adding to upward pressure on yields. Suggests capital outflows intensifying.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

S&L Government Tax Revenues Continue to Rise

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Weekly retail sales up, but trend soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

S&L Government Tax Revenues Continue to Rise

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Weekly retail sales up, but trend soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

S&P 500 Risk Levels for 2017

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Absent a recession, our inputs suggest downside risk for the S&P of 1950, or -14%.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Bond Sentiment Extremely Pessimistic

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As bond sentiment becomes more pessimistic, we evaluate our positions that have high sensitivity to interest rates. We are closing trades tactical trades on KRE and XOP today.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI Off Slightly

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This indicates a softer pace of growth at yearend. But optimism about the 12-month outlook strengthened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI Off Slightly

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This indicates a softer pace of growth at yearend. But optimism about the 12-month outlook strengthened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

2017 Prospects and Trend Anchor - Part 2

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A look back at the 2016 Cycle Composite, and a look forward at 2017. But, I will not act without tape and model confirmation.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The Best Performing Commodity in 2017?

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Ethane is likely to be one of the best performing commodities of 2017. A combination of new petrochemical plants and export facilities, demand should increase by 70% in the next few years.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

Housing Starts Retreat

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Empire services activity improves, outlook surges. Cass Freight shipments post a seasonal decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts Retreat

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Empire services activity improves, outlook surges. Cass Freight shipments post a seasonal decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q3 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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Debt remains a long-term weight on economic growth, if interest rates normalize.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Leading Indicators Support Bullish Start to 2017

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Global economic trends continued to improve, indicating that the economy was already getting on solid footing well before the Trump-induced euphoria in November. Reduction in recession risk should bode well for the global economy and equities in the coming year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Rate Sensitive Theme Still on Track

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Banks / Utilities near-term overbought not a major concern. Stay focused on the trend of the 10-year yield.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Reflation Contagion Into 2017

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Reflation theme broadening among markets, sectors and commodity indices. Watching gold, oil, dollar, rates, and sentiment extremes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

More Signs of Post-Election Optimism

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Today's economic releases show a pickup in inflation pressures and stronger factory activity at yearend. Various measures of business and consumer sentiment indicate rising optimism post election, which bodes well for consumer and investment spending in 1H 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

More Signs of Post-Election Optimism

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Today's economic releases show a pickup in inflation pressures and stronger factory activity at yearend. Various measures of business and consumer sentiment indicate rising optimism post election, which bodes well for consumer and investment spending in 1H 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Dollar Surge

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Dollar funds have been moving higher since May 2nd. Regional Banks and hedged Japan could be beneficiaries. Emerging markets should be avoided if the trend continues.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

The Lows for the Dots Are In!

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The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate, the interest on reserve balances, and the discount rate each by 25 bp. Participants increased their dot plot estimates.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Signs of Softer Growth In Q4

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Retail sales softened in November, while industrial production fell, indicating economic activity lost some momentum mid-quarter. But PPI picked up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Signs of Softer Growth In Q4

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Retail sales softened in November, while industrial production fell, indicating economic activity lost some momentum mid-quarter. But PPI picked up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

China Indicator Update

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NDR's China indicators show an incremental improvement. We remain wary of the limitations of data on China. While improving Chinese equity momentum is encouraging, the best opportunities remain outside China.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Constructing a January Effect Stock List

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The January Effect is based on the size and drawdown effects. Broad market strength, small-cap outperformance, and short-term mean reversion historically benefit the strategy. Use NDR tools to construct and customize a January Effect stock list.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Dover Corporation (DOV)

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Dover Corp is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. DOV has an elevated price momentum ranking and improving relative strength. Analyst recommendations and price targets remain pessimistic.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Q3 Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Longer-term asset allocation charts show overbought household, institutional and foreign sectors offset by corporate buying.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What to Do with Small-Caps

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Small-caps may be short-term overbought, but the tactical outlook (3-6 months) remains constructive. Continue to favor SMID over large. We are more concerned about small-caps later in 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Jumps

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But Manpower employment outlook weakens. Import prices decline, led by petroleum. Budget deficit on a widening path. Weekly retail sales trends mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Jumps

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But Manpower employment outlook weakens. Import prices decline, led by petroleum. Budget deficit on a widening path. Weekly retail sales trends mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Time for a Pause?

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10-year Treasury spreads appear to have stalled. We're gathering increasing evidence that the backup in yields may have run its course for now. No change in positions at this time.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Our Pick for ETF Chart of the Year

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Heading into 2017, we think the relative performance of high beta (SPHB) to high quality (SPHQ) will be an important trend to watch. Sector weightings within these funds suggests that inflation expectations could be a top macro driver of portfolio returns in 2017.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

2017 Prospects and Trend Anchor

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Trend evidence is neutral to mildly bullish. This Hotline presents some reward/risks for 2017, but I am a person to follow the weight of the evidence. I will not turn negative, until the trend deteriorates.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment Soars

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Small business optimism highest since early 2008. Wholesale inventories decline. Housing affordability up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Soars

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Small business optimism highest since early 2008. Wholesale inventories decline. Housing affordability up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Can You Comment on the Fab Five?

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I try to explain several mistakes.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The Trump Policy Narrative

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The Trump economic policies look much like the Reagan program, which produced strong growth after a period of economic "malaise." But, the backgrounds between 1982 and 2016 could not be more different.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Approaching Exhaustion and the Latest on Debt Growth

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There are a couple of signs that the bond market selloff may be ebbing and prices stabilizing. Debt growth picked up in Q3 but still remains sluggish.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

A Golden Opportunity

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Outlook for gold has improved for both the near-term and the long-term. Canada's gold exposure should benefit the region, now more favored by seven-way model. We are upgrading Canada from marketweight to overweight and downgrading U.K. to underweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

A "Trump Bump" In Business Confidence

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OECD U.S. CLI picks up. Consumer comfort rises. Initial jobless claims decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A "Trump Bump" In Business Confidence

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OECD U.S. CLI picks up. Consumer comfort rises. Initial jobless claims decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ETF Sector Positioning Rapidly Changing

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Financials and Industrials have quickly gone from ETF investor underweights to overweights. The Consumer sectors have become underweights in ETF portfolios.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

2017 Sector and Industry Positioning

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Energy & Industrials to overweight, Technology to marketweight. Changes reflect broader 2017 themes of reflation and value.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

More Bullish Confirmation on Russia

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We attended an investment forum at which senior Russian policymakers spoke. The discussions confirmed our view that Russia's economy is turning and rates normalizing. We see Russia as the most favorably-positioned EM equity market for 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

JOLTS: No Change In Labor Dynamics

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Mortgage refi applications continue to slide. Wholesale used vehicle prices fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

JOLTS: No Change In Labor Dynamics

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Mortgage refi applications continue to slide. Wholesale used vehicle prices fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

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EXPD on BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. Price momentum ranking approaching top decile status. Analysts' pessimism at a historically low level and short interest reversing from highest levels in ten years.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Global Growth Ending Year on Solid Note

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Global services and manufacturing activity suggest the global economy is ending the year on a solid note. The more cyclical manufacturing side of the economy points to faster output growth in the coming months. Trends by country were generally very favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

November Cyclical Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cyclical Valuation and Sentiment Indicators indicate the market is stretched to the upside at the end of November.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Our Early Submission for the 2017 Chart of the Year

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Fiscal stimulus, monetary policy, and the dollar could be big drivers for stocks in 2017. Policy Index positive entering 2017, but could disappoint if elevated expectations are not met.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Strong Q3 Productivity Growth, But Long-Term Challenges

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Trade deficit widens sharply. Factory orders rise. But weekly retail sales weaken.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Strong Q3 Productivity Growth, But Long-Term Challenges

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Trade deficit widens sharply. Factory orders rise. But weekly retail sales weaken.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

After the Referendum -- Now What?

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Without structural reforms, Italian yields and spreads could rise dramatically once the ECB begins to taper its asset purchases.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ISM Services Activity Regains Momentum

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Employment trends suggest continued moderate growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Regains Momentum

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Employment trends suggest continued moderate growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Financials in Focus

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Both NDR's U.S. Strategy team and ETF Strategy team remain bullish on Financials. From a granular perspective, the ETF Strategy team continues to recommend KRE to play the sector. The U.S. Strategy team favors Diversified Banks as well as three other sub-industries. XLF, KBWB, IAI, and KCE are top picks to play those themes.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

2017 U.S. Outlook

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S&P 500 2017 target of 2343 (+7%), led by cyclical Value sectors. Risks increase in 2H. Degree of fiscal and monetary stimuli could determine size of any pullback. Expect real GDP (2.8%) and inflation (2.1%) to accelerate. T-note fair value to rise to 2.8% by yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Special Report | Mixed

A Technical Analysis Look at Global and Sector Trends

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A Technical Analysis of global trends shows a divergence with the S&P 500. Technical analysis of sector trends and relative strength shows a move away from "Rust" (Real Estate, Utilities, Staples and Telecom) sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

A Something for Everyone Employment Report

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A mixture of good, bad, and confusion, the November Employment Report should not derail the FOMC from hiking rates later this month. Light vehicle sales taper off slightly. NYC services activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Something for Everyone Employment Report

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A mixture of good, bad, and confusion, the November Employment Report should not derail the FOMC from hiking rates later this month. Light vehicle sales taper off slightly. NYC services activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Postcard from the New Silk Road

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We recently visited one of the main beneficiaries of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Pakistan remains one of the most attractive markets in the Frontier/Emerging world in the near-term. Longer-term side-effects of Chinese investment are already evident.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

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