Recent Publications

Personal Income Up, But Spending Lags

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Consumer sentiment up slightly. State leading indexes suggest moderate near-term growth. Regional factory activity improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Productivity, Profits, and Payrolls

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The lack of savings and investment has been consistent with lower productivity, which has weighed on profits and could slow payroll growth.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Our Favorite Industry Margin Charts

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We introduce our new industry sales and margin charts and highlight our favorites.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Q2 GDP and Profits Revised Slightly Up

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Advance goods trade deficit narrows. Jobless claims continue to trend lower. Consumer comfort up a bit. But pending home sales decline. Electroindustry business conditions and outlook deteriorate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Exploring the Trend in Beta vs. Quality

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SPHB has been greatly outperforming since the February market low. We take a look at the drivers of this relative performance.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is the Fed Already Tightening Policy?

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Total and excess reserves and the monetary base have been trending lower. The monetary base is a vestige from a bygone era and no longer relevant in today's world. Ultimately what matters is policy. Clients should focus on that rather than monetary minutiae.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Is the World Really That Miserable?

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Some alternative measures of economic health and happiness, such as misery indexes and per capita GDP, suggest the world is healthier than the top-line GDP suggests. Others look less sanguine, such as income inequality and pollution. It's important to gauge human happiness, as it can dictate political movements and/or social unrest, which we all know can have long-term implications on broader economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Is This Emerging Markets Valuation Indicator Flashing a Warning Signal?

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The Emerging Markets median EV/EBITA has notionally approached levels preceding the Asian crisis. On an adjusted EV/EBITDA basis, Emerging Markets do not appear alarmingly expensive. On an aggregate basis, the decline in sales is more worrying from a secular perspective.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Durable Goods Orders Flat, But Positive Signs Emerge

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Core business orders advance for third straight month, which bodes well for capex.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Favoring High Quality Factors

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Favored Factors: Standardized Unexpected EPS, Cash Position, Operating Cash Flow Yield, EPS Growth/Stability. Selected Stocks Include: Walt Disney, Berkshire Hathaway, Unitedhealth, Amgen, Oracle, Cisco.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)

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Emerson Electric Co. is on a long-term Focus Ranks BUY rating. EMR trading at a discount to its sector and industry based on trailing earnings. Sentiment is pessimistic as analysts have never been this negative on the stock.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Quarterly Global Debt/Sentiment Update

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High levels of global debt suggest too much very long-term economic optimism, as well as high risks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Rises to Pre-Recession High

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National home prices continue to advance. Markit flash U.S. services PMI picks up, but outlook cools. Services activity strengthens in Richmond and Dallas Fed regions.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tax Plans Reflect Candidates' American Nation

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Taxes policies outlined in the first debate consistent with candidates' American Nation characteristics. We highlight how stocks, fiscal policy, and economy have performed under each candidate's nation.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Should Treasury Yields Be Even Lower?

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Selling of U.S. bonds by foreign official institutions have likely prevented Treasury yields from falling even further this year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

New Home Sales Decline, But Upward Trend Holds

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Texas factory activity improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Leading Indicators Soften Slightly but Still Lean Bullish

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Leading stock market indicator trends are on a buy signal and lean mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Playing NDR's Official Recommendations Through ETFs

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We provide ETFs to play NDR's official calls including global & U.S. asset allocation, sector, and industries.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

American Nations. How Subcultures Impact the Economy and Financial Markets.

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North America consists of 11 sub-cultures, or American Nations. 11 Nations' different views impact government spending, taxes, and stock market returns. In two-party system, nations can switch political parties over time. Changes are reflected in unorthodox 2016 campaign.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI Declines

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State coincident indexes show subdued growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing the Traders in Commodity Futures Report

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The Traders in Commodity Futures Report should help investors understand the positioning of major traders in physical commodities.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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A debt bubble into 2000-2007 used up a lot of forward demand, leaving some residue problems even after mortgage debt burst.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Weak Economic Data Weighs on Composites

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Both the LEI and CFNAI reflected August weakness across broad segments of the economy. Existing home sales also edged down. The labor market continues to show strength, but consumer comfort has declined, which could indicate softer consumer spending growth in the near future.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why Stock Portfolios Need Banks

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Falling interest rates have been correlated with higher valuation multiples for stocks. Banks and Financials are some of the only stocks that have not experienced multiple expansion since 2013. Financials industries may be good ways to mitigate risk if rates rise.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Which EM Currencies Look Appealing or Vulnerable?

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Since 2008, currency movements have been a key driver of USD realized returns in EM equities. On a PPP-basis, most EM currencies look cheap relative to the USD. NDR's new currency mean-reversion charts suggest extremes in the BRL.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

ETF Recommendations: Portfolio Tool Case Study

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Our new Portfolio Analysis tool gives some insights on current ETF Strategy recommendations. We have taken up our market beta and lessened our rate exposure in recent weeks.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Global Debt Rises to Record High!

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Global debt has risen to a record, led by new highs in private and public debt as well as emerging and developed economies. Debt trends by country (shown in a new report) and credit-to-GDP gaps show some disturbing developments in China.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Paving the Way for a December Rate Hike

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Today's FOMC statement and Chair Yellen's press conference strongly pointed to a rate hike before the end of the year, most likely in December.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Architecture Billings Decline, But Outlook Strengthens

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Construction backlog declines. Mortgage apps slip. Freight activity shows persistent weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

AutoNation, Inc. (AN)

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AutoNation on intermediate- and long-term Focus Rank BUY ratings. AN's relative strength improving, while trading near 10x forward earnings. Sentiment pessimistic as short interest reversing from highest levels in three years.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Longer-term asset allocation indicators suggest most investors are fairly fully invested, offset by continued heavy buying from corporations.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Combining Momentum and Valuation Factors

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Yield, Greater Payout. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, Sodexo, Henkel, Hal Trust, Kone, Linde. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: WPP, Imperial Brands, HSBC, Relx, Rio Tinto, SSE.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Will BoJ Provide A Catalyst for Japanese Stocks?

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Watch Japanese interest rates, the yen, and the impact on Japanese market. Valuations are encouraging. Maintaining slight overweight - model and scorecard to influence exposure changes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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We also discuss our expectation for the FOMC September statement.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing the Bond Index Correlation Report

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The Bond Index Correlation Report (aka the Fixed Income Correlator) allows you to correlate any two indexes in our universe from the Bloomberg Barclays database. You can also correlate a bond index with some non-bond items such as the S&P 500 or crude oil.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

ETF Asset Flows Confirm Sour Market Mood & Biotech Breaking Out

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Our ETF Speculation Index gave a new buy signal last week and other asset flow data points to aggregate pessimism in the ETF investing crowd. Additionally, Biotech ETFs are showing relative strength and technical breakouts. We're recommending a trade on XBI in the ETF Strategy.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Confidence Surges

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The increase suggests the housing market recovery remains on track.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Despite Some Longer-Term Overbought Warnings, Price Thrust Indicators Still Deserve Bullish Trust

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Trend evidence leans bullish but also looks stretched, indicating a mildly bullish trading strategy.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

CPI Inflation On The Rise, Driven By Services

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Consumer sentiment steady. Empire services activity improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Economic Urgency

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Consumers in decent shape short-term, but longer-term savings and investment show little pent-up demand.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Five Signs of a Sell-Off, Not a September Collapse

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Five considerations suggest that more than a sell-off is unlikely. Focus on correlations, sectors, composites, breadth and sentiment.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Weak Economic Data, But No Change In Trends

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Most of today's economic indicators, including retail sales and industrial production, declined, suggesting that the rebound in Q3 from a lackluster first half of the year would be less vigorous than initially expected. Regional factory activity was mixed. PPI inflation was flat. This may give the Fed more reasons to delay interest rate action until after the U.S. elections.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Rising Rates Could Force Our Hand

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A breakout in long-term rates could cause several sector rating changes. Rating changes being considered are Discretionary and Telecom downgraded to marketweight, Utilities to underweight, and Financials to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Introducing the Expanded Traders in Financial Futures Report

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The Traders in Financial Futures Report should help investors understand the positioning of major investors in rates, currencies, and equities.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

Buy, Sell, or Hold: ETF Recommendations

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We go through our recent recommendations and discuss which funds we would hold on to and which ones we would sell.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is the World Becoming Less Negative?

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The share of countries with rising yields has been increasing over the past month, with some countries' 10-year yields climbing out of negative territory. If short-term, this isn't a particularly uncommon occurrence. On a real basis, yields remain more negative than ever.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Can Emerging Markets Maintain their ROE Advantage?

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ROE in both developed and emerging markets has been on a downward trajectory. As with developed markets, emerging markets have used leverage to sustain ROE. Dependence on leverage remains a concern in China, but other markets can arguably increase leverage further to boost ROE.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

CFO Optimism Rises, But Capex Plans Delayed By Political Risk

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Import prices decline. Budget deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Preparing Client and Internal Presentations with NDR Content

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NDR commentary, data, interactive charts, and tools can assist with your efforts when preparing presentations or newsletters. The economic and earnings summary reports can help with describing and identifying the environment. Interactive tools provide return statistics and contribution analysis.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Is This Really the Most Unloved Bull Market of All Time?

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Flow data and some sentiment polls show this is an "unloved" bull market, but nevertheless, asset allocation and valuations argue the opposite.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What's Working and What Isn't in the U.S. Economy

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The economy remains stuck in low gear for now, with some sectors (consumer spending) performing better than others (capex). But we see tentative signs of capex picking up. While inflation remains modest, the risk is to the upside.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Bond Sentiment Update

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Bonds got very overbought in early July.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Ticks Down

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CEO economic outlook weakens. But Manpower employment outlook strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

As Volatility Increases, Watch Bond Proxies

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Historical studies and other indicators suggest that the end to historically low volatility could be followed by short term consolidation before the uptrend resumes. Bond proxies could warn if any consolidation is part of a major topping process.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

The End of the Line?

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This is not the end of the line for monetary stimulus. We are increasing our exposure to Japan at the expense of the U.S.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

ETF Sentiment Nearing a Buy Signal

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Rate and oil sensitive ETFs took the worst of Friday's sell-off. Our ETF sentiment gauge suggests that the sell-off could be contained as pessimism in speculative ETF traders grows.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

What Happened to the Neutral Trading Range?

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but some divergences and signs of overvaluation lead me to just a "mildly bullish" conclusion.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Consistent With Slow Growth

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Wholesale inventories flat. Housing affordability up slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Recession Risks Falling?

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The latest global leading indicator data and our recession model are giving constructive signs for the global economy in the coming months. Growth, however, will likely remain below trend, making the economy more susceptible to downside risks. Among countries, one notable change we've seen in recent months is that emerging market economies have been reasserting themselves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Will the Fed Hike Rates?

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I see no urgency at all from economic data for the Fed to raise rates, but there are other risks they may consider.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Real Estate: The Newest Bond Proxy Sector

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Real Estate becomes a new sector but is acting like the other bond proxies. This publication includes our monthly update of all 11 sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Where to Find Rate Insensitive Yield

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Many of the top yield plays are highly sensitive to rates. Some areas that can diversify your rate exposure are international and small-cap dividend as well as MLPs.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Beige Book: Continued Modest Economic Growth

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Jobless claims and K.C. Fed LMCI show tightening conditions. Consumer comfort stabilizes. Services revenues continue to perform well.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

After Brexit Boost, U.K. Warrants Upgrade

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Model and Scorecard call for U.K. upgrade to marketweight. Shifting exposure from Pacific ex. Japan and Europe ex. U.K. U.K. small-caps, pound, and Financials have recovered as expected.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Trouble in the Heartland?

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The deterioration in the CMI is disconcerting. Confirmation from the CCI would be disturbing.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Are Emerging Markets Truly Cheap?

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We introduce a new valuation tool to look at Emerging Markets. Excluding sectors brings nuance to headline valuation metrics. Financial, Energy, and Material sector valuations have diluted EM multiples, but this effect is less pronounced than in the recent past.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

JOLTS: Labor Demand Strengthens

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But vehicle sales decline. CRE sentiment worsens. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Wake Me up When September Ends: Drivers of the Weakest Month and Which Are Relevant This Year

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Stock offerings, fund flows, and earnings explain September's weakness. Sentiment suggests consolidation could continue short term. Long-term breadth and models imply consolidation should resolve itself to the upside.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

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JetBlue on BUY ratings for both the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. JBLU showing pessimistic sentiment and one standard deviation oversold conditions. Training under 8x trailing and forward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

The Draghi Dilemma

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The ECB has helped create stability in the economy, but has failed to meet its inflation target. This is mostly out of its control due to outside supply-shock factors and structural issues, such as demographics. We give our best guess on what we expect the ECB to do in the coming months.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Sentiment and Urgency

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Sentiment and valuations suggest a lot of urgency to buy longer-term has been satisfied.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

As Good As It Gets In The Labor Market?

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The relatively soft August employment report suggests reduced odds for a September Fed rate hike. With demographics weighing on labor force, payrolls, and compensation growth, the timing for a rake hike may never be perfect, but December makes more sense, provided other economic data holds up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Services Activity Loses Traction

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Combined with a sub-50 reading on the ISM Manufacturing Index, it suggests the economy has hit a roadblock in Q3. Employment trends moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

REIT ETFs - Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?

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Real Estate has been spun off into an 11th sector but ETF fund flows have already been positive for some time. Weakening relative strength and a stretched trend are concerning for REIT ETFs. Negative trend factors are partially offset by low interest rates and stability in the yield curve.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Oil Downgrade

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We are downgrading our crude oil outlook from bullish to neutral. Recent inventory reports and seasonal weakness, should cap near-term upside.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Supply, Demand, and Urgency

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Supply/demand evidence leans bullish as buyers more urgent than sellers.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What's Next?

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Yields could move a little lower this month in anticipation of further easing by the ECB and BoJ and the Fed on hold. Inflation compensation remains well below target and optimism has waned.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

No Sense of Urgency at the Fed

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The soft August Employment Report and a sub-50 ISM reading suggest no sense of urgency for the Fed to raise rates in September. Trade deficit narrows. Factory orders rebound. NYC services activity declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Economy Holding up, but Barely

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The latest global PMI data suggests that while the global economy continues to hold up, the overall growth trajectory remains below trend. Most of the world's largest economies saw a modest deterioration in their PMIs. But trends appear to be getting better in the second half of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Getting Bullish on Banks

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Upgrading Banks to overweight based on stronger macro, trends, and interest rate picture.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

What to Watch in Interest Rates

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Interest rate trends remain favorable, but a 10-20 basis point rally in bond yields could set off a few warnings.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Momentum Revival? Good for Emerging Markets, Bad for Europe

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As momentum returns, watch for positive market impact. Momentum and scorecard support EM overweight, Europe underweight. Shifting exposure from Canada to Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops In Contraction Territory

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ULC revised sharply higher on stronger compensation growth. Construction spending flat. Jobless claims hold low. But consumer comfort declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

September Seasonality

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Septembers have historically been tough for equity funds and good for Treasury ETFs. We also provide some other ideas around September seasonality.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

High Yield Rumbles on and Inflows Continue

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High yield recorded another month of outperformance. Flows into bond mutual funds were the most in nearly four years.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Utility Investors - The Greatest Fools?

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U.S. bonds are overvalued but not in a bubble. Utility equity valuations are extreme. Poor fundamentals separate Utilities from other overvalued sectors.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

ADP Private Payrolls and Online Labor Demand Steady

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Regional factory activity weakens. Pending home sales and mortgage applications rebound. Electroindustry conditions and outlook improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Election Sentiment

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Uncertainty can weigh on markets, particularly those suffering from too much optimism. Yet, cycles and breadth look good once optimism cools.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Comparing the Low Vol Bubble to the All-Time Greats

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The current over valuation of low volatility stocks does not compare to the most notorious valuations in history. The Nifty Fifty is a potentially appropriate comparison. The bigger risk is what a decline in low vol would imply for the bond market.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Rebounds

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Weekly retail sales remain soft. Texas services activity weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What's the Problem?

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With many developed economies near maximum employment, the persistent push outside of the U.S. for additional monetary accommodation is about reducing government debt burdens.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Update - Continue to Overweight Equities

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The ETF AA Model continues to favor equities over bonds. Our sentiment work is also becoming more encouraging for the broad equity trend. Among sub-level allocations, small-caps have the highest recommended allocation and the model is largely avoiding U.S. treasurys.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Personal Income and Spending Continue to Advance

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State leading indexes project trend-like growth. Texas manufacturing activity remains weak.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Global Questions and Leading Stock Market Indicators Update

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Stock market leading indicator model remains bullish on trends. DAVIS49 and DAVIS222 look good versus World Index excluding the U.S.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Q2 GDP Revised Down Slightly, Profits Continue to Decline

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Consumer sentiment eases slightly. Advance goods trade deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why the Surge in People Leaving the Labor Force?

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The baby boomers are starting to retire and that will weigh on the labor force participation rate going forward, but there are other problems in the labor market.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Strong Breadth and Low Volatility

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S&P 500 ended last week with long-term breadth at a multi-year high and realized volatility at a multi-year low. Technical evidence still points to further gains this year.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | Technical Talk | Weekly

Technology Surge

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A broad-based pickup in consumer tech spending adds conviction to tech overweights.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

The Benefits of Economic Surprises

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Looking at macroeconomic data relative to its trend and relative to expectations does a good job of identifying market trends. Among most countries, economic data has, on net, been surprising to the upside, which is supportive of our overweight call on equities.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Durable Goods Orders Rise, But Momentum Still Weak

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Consumer comfort spikes. Jobless claims remain low. But Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI shows sluggish growth. K.C. Fed activity continues to contract modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Closing Low Volatility

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We had already recommended against holding SPLV. Today we remove our recommendation to own USMV as well.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Secular Bull Lives but Fundamental Support Starting to Fade

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Of the 10 factors we identified in our previous report supporting a secular bull market for U.S. equities, half of them have started to fade. From a fundamental economic perspective, the secular bull is in its fifth or sixth inning.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

The Case For and Against Fed Raising Rates

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A look at the risks and rewards of higher interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Pull Back

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House price gains moderate. Mortgage apps ease. State coincident indexes show weak growth momentum, but no recession.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Short-Term Sentiment Tacky Along With Long-Term Valuation

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Short-term sentiment argues for a time-out, but the heavy selling of equity mutual funds is a positive offset.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Balancing Profitability and Valuation Factors

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Favored Factors: Standardized Unexpected EPS, Cash Position, Operating Cash Flow Yield, EPS Growth/Stability. Selected Stocks Include: Walt Disney, Berkshire Hathaway, Unitedhealth, Oracle, Cisco.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Aetna Inc. (AET)

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Aetna on intermediate- and long-term Focus Rank BUY ratings. AET has top 10% valuation ranking. Relative strength improving as stock reverses from pessimistic sentiment.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

A Fed-Induced, Unintended Bubble

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Low volatility stocks are trading at record high valuations. The risk of imminent mean reversion may be low... ...but stocks bought for their safety may not prove to be safe in the long run.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

New Home Sales Trend Accelerates

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But Richmond Fed activity deteriorates. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI pulls back. ATA truck tonnage continues to struggle. Weekly retail sales soften.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Demographics and the "Missing" Wage Gains

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Higher-earning retiring Baby Boomers are being replaced by lower-earning Millennials, which puts downward pressure on average earnings growth. This trend runs counter to the Fed's efforts to create faster wage and price inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

More on NIRP - The Confidence Channel

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Demographics are interfering with the intended effects from NIRP by reducing confidence and spending.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Oil's Next Move

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Short covering has propelled oil's recent rally. For now, we remain oil bulls. Future inventory reports should support the rally.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Developed International ETFs Rising From the Ashes, Dividend Equity ETFs Falling From the Sky

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Two new sample screens for clients to find funds diverging from their established trends in our relative rankings. EAFE funds are beginning to show positive movement in the relative ranks while dividend-focused funds are beginning to show negative movement in the same ranks.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Stronger Growth in Q3

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Equipment leasing and finance industry confidence slightly up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Does the Lack of Global Trend Participation Rate Bother You?

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Global market trends, excluding the U.S., have been relatively weak and that is a concern. But most global markets now appear to be in uptrends.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Are You Kidding Me?

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Employment booming but GDP stalled?? Still mildly bullish on economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Watching for Correction... and Buying Opportunity

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Indicators warning of sell-off... ...but severe decline not likely.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Comment | Weekly

Remaining Positive On Home-Related

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Despite weak Q2 economic data for construction, we remain positive on Housing and Home-related industries.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Upside Potential For Growth In Q3

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But Philly Fed factory activity shows notable cracks. Consumer comfort strengthens. Jobless claims decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ETFs for Top Line Growth

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We expand on a topic our U.S. Strategy team showcased earlier this week, looking for funds that are providing strong sales growth.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Widespread Improvement in Mortgage Credit

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The continued improvement in credit quality and easier standards should support the expansion of mortgage credit, housing, and the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Global House Prices Resilient, but Some Individual Countries Raise Concerns

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Our aggregate measures of global house price conditions remain resilient, but are consistent with below-trend growth in the global economy. We also examine short- and long-term house price trends by country, which suggest some countries may be prone to downside risks.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

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Southwest Airlines on BUY rating across intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. LUV has top 5% valuation and profitability rankings. Overall sentiment is pessimistic, yet insiders are buying.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

With Enough Statistics One Can Get the Trend Perspective One Wants!

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Putting the current level of stock prices into a longer-term trend perspective looking for crowd extremes.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Price Momentum Six Months Post Market Bottom

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Yield, Greater Payout. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, Sodexo, Fresenius SE, Kone, Heidelberg Cement. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Imperial Brands, HSBC, Relx, Rio Tinto, SSE

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Top Line Starting to Matter Again

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The sluggish economic backdrop favors the Growth premium trade over the long term. Tactically, we remain neutral on Growth versus Value, but... ...stocks with strong sales growth have begun to rebound and are a potential area of focus for those looking to accumulate Growth premium positions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Industrial Production Jumps, But Still Plenty Of Excess Capacity

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CPI inflation remains modest. Housing starts up, but permits lag. Weekly retail sales mixed, while e-commerce continues to rise. Cass Freight indexes decline. Empire services activity plunges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Things We Know That Ain't Necessarily So

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Stocks haven't always beaten bonds in all time periods and in all countries. A dynamic, rather than a static or mechanistic, approach to asset allocation may yield superior results.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

China A-Shares Showing Strength

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ASHR as well as H share-oriented China funds have been climbing our relative rankings. A weakening yuan seems to be adding a tailwind.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

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