Recent Publications

A Technical Analysis Look at Global and Sector Trends

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A Technical Analysis of global trends shows a divergence with the S&P 500. Technical analysis of sector trends and relative strength shows a move away from "Rust" (Real Estate, Utilities, Staples and Telecom) sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

A Something for Everyone Employment Report

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A mixture of good, bad, and confusion, the November Employment Report should not derail the FOMC from hiking rates later this month. Light vehicle sales taper off slightly. NYC services activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Something for Everyone Employment Report

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A mixture of good, bad, and confusion, the November Employment Report should not derail the FOMC from hiking rates later this month. Light vehicle sales taper off slightly. NYC services activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Postcard from the New Silk Road

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We recently visited one of the main beneficiaries of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Pakistan remains one of the most attractive markets in the Frontier/Emerging world in the near-term. Longer-term side-effects of Chinese investment are already evident.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Fab Five Monetary Component

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The Fab Five Monetary Component has deteriorated due to rising interest rates, but financial conditions still look alright.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Continues to Strengthen In Q4

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Construction spending picks up. Jobless claims rise, but trend still low. Consumer comfort holds strong. Beige Book shows continued broad-based expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Continues to Strengthen In Q4

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Construction spending picks up. Jobless claims rise, but trend still low. Consumer comfort holds strong. Beige Book shows continued broad-based expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Oil Breakout

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With the OPEC uncertainty out of the way, we upgrade our tactical oil outlook from neutral to bullish. We expect oil prices to hit multi-year highs in 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Emerging Themes in Financials

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Remaining overweight Banks and Capital Markets. Asset Management, Brokers and Life Insurance all benefit in a rising stocks, rising rates environment.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

2017 Global Outlook

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We present our expectations for 2017. Our views on global equities and asset allocation, emerging markets, energy, global fixed income, and global economics.

Ned Davis Research | Special Report | Mixed

Worst Month in 12 Years!

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The U.S. bond market had its worst monthly performance in 12 years.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Energy's Big Day

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Energy ETFs had large volatility-adjusted moves higher yesterday. That has often been followed by weakness in the short-term and strength longer-term.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Personal Income and Spending Rise

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ADP private payrolls jump. Regional factory activity mostly positive. Pending home sales near flat. Mortgage refi applications sink.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income and Spending Rise

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ADP private payrolls jump. Regional factory activity mostly positive. Pending home sales near flat. Mortgage refi applications sink.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Kohl's Corporation (KSS)

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Kohl's is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. KSS relative strength looks strong versus its sector and industry. Analyst sentiment is now reversing from strongest pessimistic readings ever.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Fab Five Sentiment Component Dives

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The Fab Five Sentiment Component is quite negative, but I do not see excessive euphoria.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Q3 Real GDP Revised Up, Profits Rise

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Consumer confidence highest since 2007. Existing home prices continue to rise. Weekly retail sales advance. Texas services activity and outlook strengthen.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q3 Real GDP Revised Up, Profits Rise

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Consumer confidence highest since 2007. Existing home prices continue to rise. Weekly retail sales advance. Texas services activity and outlook strengthen.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Potential Corporate Tax Cuts' Winners and Losers

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A corporate tax cut could improve margins, but the benefits could fall disproportionately on domestically oriented companies. Repatriation tax reform could offset some of the relative unattractiveness for multinationals, especially if the cut is permanent.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

ETF AA Model Stays Aggressive for December

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The model is currently recommending 86% exposure to equities, concentrated in the U.S. rather than international markets. Most bond categories have been weak lately, causing the model to allocate over 9% to cash.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Texas Factory Activity and Outlook Strengthen

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The Manufacturing General Business Activity Index for the region rose to its highest level since July 2014.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Texas Factory Activity and Outlook Strengthen

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The Manufacturing General Business Activity Index for the region rose to its highest level since July 2014.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tape - Good, Neutral, Ugly

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Trend evidence has improved on the rally, but some divergences and overbought conditions leave me neutral.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Going for a Rare Trifecta

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Retailing is trying to outperform three Decembers in a row, a rare feat. While we expect retail sales to accelerate in December, the acceleration does not look robust enough for us to go overweight Retailing in December. Remain marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI Shows Robust Growth

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Advance goods trade deficit widens. Cass Freight shipments rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI Shows Robust Growth

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Advance goods trade deficit widens. Cass Freight shipments rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Entrepreneurship

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The country clearly needs more entrepreneurship, but debt and projected deficits will be a headwind.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

More Signs of Gaining Economic Momentum

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Durable goods orders increase. Markit flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rises. State coincident indexes show broader base for growth. Consumer sentiment improves. New home sales pull back, but trend still up. Mortgage applications surge, and home prices rise. Jobless claims still historically low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

More Signs of Gaining Economic Momentum

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Durable goods orders increase. Markit flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rises. State coincident indexes show broader base for growth. Consumer sentiment improves. New home sales pull back, but trend still up. Mortgage applications surge, and home prices rise. Jobless claims still historically low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

DAVIS265 Below 20% Bulls Update

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DAVIS265 has corrected a severe oversold condition, but is not yet severely stretched on the upside. Sentiment can be helpful suggesting high and low risk groups.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Price Momentum and Lower Accruals

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Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Operating Cash Flow Yield, Price Momentum. Selected Stocks Include: Omnicom Group, Baker Hughes, Unitedhealth, Applied Materials, Air Products and Chemicals.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

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Bed Bath & Beyond is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. The stock is reversing from both pessimistic sentiment and oversold conditions. BBBY is trading under 10x forward and trailing earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Year Two of Tightening Cycles

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The second year of slow tightening cycles has been mixed for stocks, but the current path of hikes is even more gradual than the average slow cycle. Watch the Big Mo Composite for signs that interest rates are derailing the bull market.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Our Thoughts On A Coming Trump Expansion

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Several broad policy proposals from President-elect Trump could boost economic growth in 2017 and 2018. But lack of details creates uncertainty about the magnitude of the stimulus impact. We estimate that the proposed infrastructure investment plan, individual and corporate tax cuts, and increased defense spending could increase nominal GDP by 0.5% to 3.2% in 2017 and 2018. But a sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar and protectionist policies could cut the stimulus effect in half. With the labor market close to full employment, fiscal stimulus would likely fuel higher inflation, prompting the Fed to accelerate its tightening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Existing Home Sales Hit A New Cycle High

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Richmond Fed activity mixed. Weekly retail sales still sluggish.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Hit A New Cycle High

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Richmond Fed activity mixed. Weekly retail sales still sluggish.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Italian Referendum: The Next Global Wild Card

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Italy will hold an important referendum on December 4th to amend the Italian Constitution. A "No" win could increase volatility, but it would likely not be the catalyst that sends global markets into a bear market.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Comment | Weekly

The Next European Peripheral Debt Trade?

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Will France be the next candidate for the European peripheral debt trade? The U.S./German 10-year spread hit its widest point since 1989.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

The Impact of Currency on International Equity ETFs

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Most global currencies have been weakening versus the dollar of late, hurting performance of unhedged international ETF offerings. Investors should consider the direction of the underlying currencies and the impact on the equity markets when selecting international ETFs.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Up Modestly, But Momentum Still Weak

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The economy continues to operate below its historical trend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CFNAI Up Modestly, But Momentum Still Weak

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The economy continues to operate below its historical trend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Neutral Trading Range Continues, but Fab Five Says Stay Alert

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Trend evidence remains neutral, with the NYSE Composite and the MSCI World (excluding U.S.) Indices about where they were in the summer of 2014.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Income Inequality and the Rise of the Populist Movements - No Coincidence

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Income inequality is one of the key reasons several countries have flocked to populist movements. But inequality has been rising for a while; why the heightened angst now? We show a timeline as well as details of the major political events in Europe that should be on clients' radars.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

LEI Shows Continued Expansion Ahead

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K.C. Fed factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Shows Continued Expansion Ahead

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K.C. Fed factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Economic Outlook Update

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A review of some of my favorite economic indicators, still suggest a mildly bullish outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Energy: Taking The Long View

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Crude oil and the Energy Sector move in multi-year mean reverting cycles. Most evidence indicates the Energy Cycle bottomed this year. We recommend overweighting Oilfield Service Providers and underweighting Integrated Oil Companies.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Featured Report | Mixed

Buy Emerging Markets on Weakness - Adding to Overweight Exposure

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Adding to Emerging Markets overweight. Shifting 1% each from U.K. and Europe ex. U.K. Seven reasons to buy on weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Three Rising Rate Trades You Haven't Heard Yet

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Three Non-Consensus Trades for a Rising Rate Environment. Continue to be overweight Financials and Banks. Upgrading Diversified Financial Services to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Housing Starts Surge

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CPI inflation up, led by energy. Philly Fed factory activity softens, but inflation firms. Jobless claims drop to fewest since 1973. Consumer comfort grows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts Surge

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CPI inflation up, led by energy. Philly Fed factory activity softens, but inflation firms. Jobless claims drop to fewest since 1973. Consumer comfort grows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Bond Allocation in a Rising Rate Environment

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Some top options for ETF investors are rate-hedged, convertibles, high yield, senior loans, and floaters.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

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Gilead is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. Its sentiment score reflects pessimism and the stock trades near 7x trailing and forward earnings. GILD is more than one standard deviation oversold.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

How Much Can 10-Year Treasury Yields Climb?

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We provide three perspectives. In the short-term, not beyond 2.50%. In the long-term, yields could climb to around 4.00%.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

What a Trump Win Means for Emerging Market Vulnerability

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It's still too early to assess the U.S. President-elect's rather vague goals for the coming year and its subsequent impact on emerging economies. But the anticipation of what may happen has already had an impact on several emerging-market currencies, which can put a few countries with high levels of short-term external debt at risk.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Republican Control = 3 R's

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Republicans have had control of the Presidency, and both houses of Congress about 22% of the time since 1901. I show a table of some historical results.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Flat, Weighed Down By Utilities

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PPI inflation trends modestly up. Architecture billings rise slightly, while trends still weak. Builder confidence steady. Mortgage apps decline. Empire services activity continues to contract, but outlook improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Flat, Weighed Down By Utilities

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PPI inflation trends modestly up. Architecture billings rise slightly, while trends still weak. Builder confidence steady. Mortgage apps decline. Empire services activity continues to contract, but outlook improves.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Revisiting the Emerging Markets Rates-Equities Relationship

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A more bearish view on the EM bond index does not necessarily imply bearishness on EM equities. Higher core economy rates are not necessarily bad for EM equities. We reiterate our existing underweights and are watching bond-driven EM equity markets.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Bond Sentiment Update

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Bond Sentiment has improved dramatically since July, but is not yet low risk.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Downgrading MBS to Underweight

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We are downgrading agency MBS to Underweight from Marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

Value Strategies Outperforming

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Siemens, LVMH Moet Hennessy, Henkel AG, Schneider Electric, Koninklijke Philips. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Kingfisher, Tesco, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Assessing Post-Trump Market Action

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Faster earnings growth would alleviate our biggest CY17 concern. Watch bond yields, sentiment, and breadth. Shifting from neutral to favoring Value over Growth on tactical basis.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Strong Retail Sales Boost Q4 GDP Outlook

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Import prices rise, led by fuel. Empire manufacturing rebounds modestly. Business inventories up slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Strong Retail Sales Boost Q4 GDP Outlook

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Import prices rise, led by fuel. Empire manufacturing rebounds modestly. Business inventories up slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Pressures on Inflation

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There are some short-term upward pressures on inflation. Longer-term, I don't see a lasting rise.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Downgrading EM Bonds

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We are downgrading emerging market bonds to Marketweight/Neutral from Overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Strength in Small-Cap Dividend, Closing Tech & Gold Trades

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Small-cap ETFs are showing trend strength and recently outperforming large-cap funds. Small-cap dividend funds are a good way to get yield exposure while minimizing your rate sensitivity. We are closing recommendations on XLK and GLD in our ETF Strategy.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Fab Five Tape Update

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The trend evidence is neutral.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Late-Cycle Positioning: A Three-Step Process

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Downgrade of bond-proxies completes our rising-rate trade. Downgrading Telecom sector to marketweight, Utilities sector to underweight. Downgrading Health Care Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Providers & Services, Diversified Telecom industries to marketweight, and Electric Utilities and Tobacco to underweight. Upgrading Health Care and the Pharma industry to marketweight. Taking more of a wait-and-see approach for other sectors after Trump knee-jerk reactions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Rebound

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Budget deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Rebound

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Budget deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

When Something Minor is Really Something Major

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Real Private Non-Residential Fixed Investment is a minor part of the economy, but it deserves far more respect, and attention than it gets.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Election Reflection - No Answers, Just Questions

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Cyclical and secular bull markets well intact, supporting maximum overweight allocation. We address client questions.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Trump Trades Off and Running

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Many of the areas that stand to benefit from Trump's presidency are already beginning to rally. This includes infrastructure areas, energy, and financials.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Initial Jobless Claims Decline

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Consumer comfort improves. Housing affordability down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Initial Jobless Claims Decline

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Consumer comfort improves. Housing affordability down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Historic Drop and Update on NDR Bond Outlook

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We remain short duration, long the steepener, and bullish TIPS.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

NDR Featured Stock Chart Bundle Update

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Closing out Total System Services and Verizon Communications. Based on combination of fundamental, technical, sentiment, and macro data.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Global Leading Indicators Point to Faster Global Growth

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The latest global leading indicator data gives further confirmation that global recession risks are ebbing. Growth, however, will likely remain below trend, putting the economy at greater risk for downside. Growth broadened among countries, with a mix of developed and emerging economy outperformance.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

My Two-Cents' Worth on Donald Trump Election

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Vote for change.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Continues to Decline

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Wholesale inventories up slightly. K.C. Fed labor market indicators improve. But business employment dynamics deteriorate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Continues to Decline

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Wholesale inventories up slightly. K.C. Fed labor market indicators improve. But business employment dynamics deteriorate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Using NDR Research for Equity REIT Investing

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This report not only gives an update on our Equity REIT outlook, but also provides our framework for top-down analysis of the REIT industry, which is somewhat unique compared to other industries given the underlying source of income is real estate. Our outlook for the Equity REITs Industry is neutral relative to the market, but decidedly cautious. Upward momentum for interest rates is bearish for REITs as is tightening lending standards for commercial real estate, and the external indicators in our REITs scorecard are bearish. Look for us to downgrade Real Estate to underweight if rates continue to rise and our technical indicators start to turn bearish.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Two Trump Trades

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We are downgrading Mexican equities to underweight. We reiterate our overweight on Russian equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Market Implications of Trump's Victory

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If Trump's victory proves to be a short-term shock, history suggests stocks usually recover from "crises." Republican president/ Republican Congress combination has produced above-average market gains. Big fiscal stimulus would be unusual in first year but is a potential game-changer in 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Assessing Risks With Correlations

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NDR's correlation tools, charts, and reports can help you avoid excessive betting on a particular theme. The content allows you to evaluate relationships across and within equity indices, fixed income, commodities, currencies, economies, sectors, stocks, ETFs, factor portfolios, and your ticker lists. Many of the reports and tools contain presentation friendly visuals, which show how the relationship between two areas has evolved over time.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

November Sentiment/Valuation Update (Revised)

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Cyclical Sentiment/Valuation indicators have told me the upside was limited.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

November Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cyclical Sentiment/Valuation indicators have told me the upside was limited.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Up, But Caution Remains

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JOLTS: Robust labor demand, but hires ebb. Weekly retail sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Up, But Caution Remains

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JOLTS: Robust labor demand, but hires ebb. Weekly retail sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CRE Returns Continue to Moderate as Appreciation Slows

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Despite continued moderation of returns, commercial real estate (CRE) remains an attractive asset class, especially compared to bonds and cash.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Is the European Peripheral Debt Trade in Trouble?

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Wider Italian spreads indicate a local problem, not a general problem. We remain long the European peripheral debt trade.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Maintaining Bullish Bets Despite Election Uncertainty

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ETF investors have been pulling money from equities and high yield bond funds leading into the election. We are not selling our risky positions yet as our model continues to paint a bullish picture and sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Solid

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Wholesale used vehicle prices decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Solid

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Wholesale used vehicle prices decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Some Deterioration in Leading Stock Market Indicator Trends

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Our Leading Indicator Model for stocks has retreated to neutral.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Clearing a Path to a December Rate Hike

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Following a positive October Employment Report, we expect the FOMC to raise interest rates by 25 bp on December 14, barring a significant shock. Trade deficit narrows. Light vehicle sale rise, but pace has tapered off. CRE sentiment deteriorates. Housing affordability rises.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Clearing a Path to a December Rate Hike

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Following a positive October Employment Report, we expect the FOMC to raise interest rates by 25 bp on December 14, barring a significant shock. Trade deficit narrows. Light vehicle sale rise, but pace has tapered off. CRE sentiment deteriorates. Housing affordability rises.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

8 Straight Down Days - Oversold or Sign of Weakness

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8 straight down days has a mixed record looking forward.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why the Fed Is in a Box

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A debt bubble, inflated financial assets, and sluggish economic growth leaves the Fed in a box regarding raising interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

G7 and BRIC Outlook: Ending the Year With Subtle Victory

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We provide our comprehensive quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and regions. Compared to our last outlook in late July, economic conditions among most of the world's largest economies have improved and will likely continue in the coming months. This suggests a modest global economic rebound through the end of the year, in line with our view that global recession risks are subsiding.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

The Next Phase of Dividend Investing

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Dividends remain an important part of income investors' long-term returns. Look to non-traditional dividend sectors like Tech and Financials. Strong balance sheets and low P/Es provide higher margin of safety if rates rise.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Allocation for a Tantrum

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Shifting 5% from bonds to cash while maintaining maximum overweight allocation. Performance consistent with 2013 taper tantrum. Risk of tantrum becoming meltdown is limited...for now.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Greater Confidence in the Inflation Outlook Mobilizes Fed, High Yield Investors

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Greater confidence in the inflation outlook puts a December rate hike in sight. It would take a significant shock to derail Fed action. Two market-based measures of inflation compensation have been rising. Increased confidence in the inflation outlook has also emboldened high yield investors. We remain overweight credit, led by high yield.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Falls Back to Trend

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Nonfarm productivity rebounds, but trend still weak. Layoffs trend remains low. Consumer comfort continues to rise. Factory orders up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Falls Back to Trend

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Nonfarm productivity rebounds, but trend still weak. Layoffs trend remains low. Consumer comfort continues to rise. Factory orders up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buying GLD for an Election Hedge

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Sentiment indicators for gold and a few of gold's major macro drivers are in alignment to enter into a short-term trade on GLD.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Setting the Stage for a Year-End Global Economic Recovery!

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The latest global PMIs give further confirmation that global recession risks are ebbing and that the economic outlook is set to improve in the coming months. Global growth trends appear to be broadening, which is another good sign for the global economic expansion. Nearly all the world's largest economies fared well in October, with most countries making new highs.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

ADP Private Payrolls Moderate

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NYC services activity remains weak. Mortgage applications little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ADP Private Payrolls Moderate

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NYC services activity remains weak. Mortgage applications little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Downgrading South Africa

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We are downgrading South African equities to underweight from marketweight with a six to 12 month view. Continued political volatility at the center has overshadowed favorable municipal election results. Cross-asset valuation and momentum indicators are not favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

RPM International Inc. (RPM)

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RPM International on short- and long-term Focus Rank BUY ratings. RPM more than one standard deviation oversold. Sentiment is pessimistic and valuations showing favorable reward/risk.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Crowded Trades - Part Three - Conundrum Regarding Flows, Assets, and Cash

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There is a real sentiment conundrum between stock and bond flows and assets, as well as between Merrill Lynch cash ratios and ICI data.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Index Up Modestly

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Construction spending declines. State leading indexes project subdued growth ahead. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Index Up Modestly

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Construction spending declines. State leading indexes project subdued growth ahead. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Heading Toward Later Cycle Leadership: Financials to Overweight

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Our upgrade is rooted in rising rate expectations.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Gilts Expensive

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We are further reducing our exposure to the U.K. market. Gilts are poor values compared to other major bond markets based on expected real yields. Bonds had their worst month since September 2014.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Improved Gold Outlook

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Gold outlook improving.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ETF AA Model Back to Maximum Equity Exposure

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The model now recommends 100% equity exposure at the expense of bonds. All of our top-level indicators favor stocks over bonds. The top sub-level allocations are in Tech and emerging markets with a glaring underweight in developed international.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Consumer Spending and Income Advance

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Regional factory activity mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Spending and Income Advance

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Regional factory activity mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Stop Loss

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Trend evidence leans mildly bullish, but there has been some deterioration, so I list stop-loss points.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Q3 GDP Accelerates, Boosted By Net Exports And Inventories

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Compensation pressures remain subdued. Consumer sentiment worsens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q3 GDP Accelerates, Boosted By Net Exports And Inventories

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Compensation pressures remain subdued. Consumer sentiment worsens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Earnings Confusion

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There are many different measures of earnings that can be confusing. I prefer median or normalized earnings measures.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Market Breadth Leading Earnings Breadth... and More Reflation

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Global market breadth consistent with breadth of PMIs and forward earnings. Earnings momentum likely to follow. Trends consistent with ongoing global reflation theme.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Durable Goods Orders Edge Down Slightly

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But consumer comfort jumps. Homeownership rate picks up. Pending home sales rebound. Jobless claims decline. K.C. Fed regional activity grows at steady pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Edge Down Slightly

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But consumer comfort jumps. Homeownership rate picks up. Pending home sales rebound. Jobless claims decline. K.C. Fed regional activity grows at steady pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

FANGs Bite Again

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FANG stocks outperforming again, and it is apparent why.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Introducing a New ETF Seasonality Tool

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The new tool represents a major enhancement to our ETF Seasonality Report.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

CMBS Still Performing Despite Worries

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We remain overweight CMBS due to reduced supply, improved asset quality, decent yields, and a favorable seasonal period.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Subdued Growth, But No Recession

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Markit flash U.S. services PMI up strongly. New home sales rise modestly. Mortgage apps slip. Advance goods trade deficit narrows sharply. NEMA business confidence rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Subdued Growth, But No Recession

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Markit flash U.S. services PMI up strongly. New home sales rise modestly. Mortgage apps slip. Advance goods trade deficit narrows sharply. NEMA business confidence rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Time to Buy Mexico

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We are upgrading Mexican equities from marketweight to overweight with a six to 12 month view. Cross-asset valuation and momentum indicators are showing favorable readings. Headwinds from the U.S. election are fading, and the domestic political picture is benign.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Combining Election-Year and Post-Bottom Factors

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Favored Factors: Standardized Unexpected EPS, Cash Position, Operating Cash Flow Yield, EPS Growth/Stability. Selected Stocks Include: Home Depot, Berkshire Hathaway, Bank of America, Merck, Unitedhealth, Oracle, Cisco.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Crowded Trades - Part 2 - Distinctions

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I strongly believe one should be wary of crowd extremes, but there are distinctions that can change regarding who the "crowd" is.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Retreats

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI up strongly. But Richmond regional activity still sluggish. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Retreats

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI up strongly. But Richmond regional activity still sluggish. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

European Corporates Struggling Despite Support

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Spreads on European corporates, especially high yield, are struggling to compress further, despite continued bond buying by the ECB. European high yield has underperformed its U.S. counterpart. Look for the bout of underperformance to end by the December ECB meeting.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Rethinking a Decade-Long Trend

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Growth's hiatus in relative strength lead us to question the secular Growth/Value uptrend. Not enough has changed to say Growth's secular bull is over. We discuss what to watch for a secular shift and offer four solutions in the meantime.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

U.S. Dollar ETFs Now Rising from the Ashes

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Dollar ETFs are now climbing our ETF relative strength ranking from a very low point. The large trading range remains intact but we're watching for a breakout to the upside in dollar funds.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Improves, But Momentum Still Weak

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The index suggests growth remains below its historical trend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Improves, But Momentum Still Weak

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The index suggests growth remains below its historical trend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Different Indices Give Different Trend Messages

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Different market averages give different pictures of market trends, but overall evidence remains mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Cyclical Bull Well Intact ... But Fund Investors Don't Buy It

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Bullish outlook intact, as equities outperform bonds ... ... yet mutual fund investors exiting stock funds, entering bond funds. Foreign investors also favor bonds - reallocation potential.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Should the Fed Raise Rates Based upon Strong Employment and Inflation

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It looks like the Fed will be justified in raising rates later this year, but I question if high debt levels make it a mistake.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

LEI Suggests Continued Moderate Growth

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Existing home sales rebound. Philly Fed factory activity moderates slightly. Jobless claims up, but trend still low. Mixed signals of consumer sentiment. ELFA confidence up slightly. Beige Book:Growth continues to modest-to-moderate pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Continued Moderate Growth

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Existing home sales rebound. Philly Fed factory activity moderates slightly. Jobless claims up, but trend still low. Mixed signals of consumer sentiment. ELFA confidence up slightly. Beige Book:Growth continues to modest-to-moderate pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Tipping Point for Rate-Sensitive Sectors

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RUST Sectors show poor trends. Waiting for Financials sector breakout to move to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Adding Long-Term Energy Exposure

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We look at oil ETFs as well as energy stock ETFs to capitalize on NDR's House View that the secular low for oil is in.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

The Best Kept Secret in the Money Market

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Taxable equivalent yields for money market paper have soared, creating an opportunity for those investors who don't need the liquidity of Treasury debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Does the ECB Care About Banks?

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The ECB's QE and NIRP policy have helped increase loan volumes, but this has mostly been at the expense of bank profitability. The ECB will likely be OK with this negative consequence as long as the policies help achieve its end-all goal of reaching its inflation target.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Housing Starts Decline, But Permits Rise

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Mortgage apps mixed. Architecture billings contract. Freight activity weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Housing Starts Decline, But Permits Rise

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Mortgage apps mixed. Architecture billings contract. Freight activity weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Crowded Trades - Part 1

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Sentiment for bond related investments is confusing and complicated, but looks like a potentially crowded trade.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Companies with Greater Earnings Revisions

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Cash Flow Yield, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Michelin, Sodexo, Henkel, ABB, UPM-Kymmene. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Tesco, BP, Rolls Royce, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

CPI Inflation Up, Led by Energy and Shelter

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Builder confidence down slightly. VC investment declines. Empire services activity continues to shrink. Weekly retail sales subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CPI Inflation Up, Led by Energy and Shelter

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Builder confidence down slightly. VC investment declines. Empire services activity continues to shrink. Weekly retail sales subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Has Income Inequality Reached a Turning Point?

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We discuss the historical trends, recent changes, and drivers of income inequality in the U.S. While income inequality is not inherently bad for the economy, there could be negative consequences at extremes, including reduced intergeneration mobility and slower long-term economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

What Would Congressional Combinations and a Clinton Presidency Mean for the Market?

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Stocks have performed above average under Democratic presidents and Republican or mixed Congresses, especially in real terms. Expansionary fiscal policy could favor cyclical Value sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Massive Gilt Underperformance Results in Wider Spreads, Steeper Curve

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The past two weeks has seen massive gilt underperformance, particularly at the long end of the yield curve.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

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