Recent Publications

Overvalued Markets? Overrated Concerns

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Earnings growth keeping valuations in check as markets advance. Watch median earnings yields of market indices and global sectors. Financials relatively cheap while defensive sectors relatively expensive, supporting positive outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Dispelling Discretionary Doubts

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Sentiment for Consumer Discretionary has turned positive in 2017. We take a look at our concerns for the Consumer Discretionary sector and consider where we may be overly pessimistic. We are considering shifting some sector allocation from Energy to Consumer Discretionary.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Jobless Claims Still Near Lowest Since 1973

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Consumer comfort improves. Advance goods trade deficit widens. Architecture billings decline. K.C. Fed activity up modestly, while outlook surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Jobless Claims Still Near Lowest Since 1973

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Consumer comfort improves. Advance goods trade deficit widens. Architecture billings decline. K.C. Fed activity up modestly, while outlook surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

China Indicator Update

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Momentum in Chinese equity markets remains strong. Valuations are a source of concern. The macro backdrop remains broadly constructive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Will ETF Liquidity Cause the Next Market Meltdown?

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ETFs have been at the corner of the passive vs. active debate. As products become more obscure and hold more assets, liquidity has become a major investor concern. However, we are much less concerned about the liquidity for three major reasons: ETFs are still small in comparison to their underlying markets, the larger ETFs have ample liquidity in the secondary market, and trading volume has tended to increase during market stress.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Fed on Track to Raise Rates in June and Shrink the Balance Sheet in Q4

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We reaffirm our call for a June rate hike. The Fed will limit the shrinkage of its balance sheet until it normalizes sometime in 2021. The yield curve should continue to flatten.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

One of the World's Largest Demographic Burdens in the Place You'd Least Expect It

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Brazil has a lot of good things going for it, including one of the best demographic outlooks in the world. Nonetheless, its public pensions are astronomically high and in line with those of the developed world. The latest corruption scandals vastly reduce the chance of any reform.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Slip Amid Tight Inventories

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Existing home prices continue to increase. But state coincident indexes show fewer states grew in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Slip Amid Tight Inventories

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Existing home prices continue to increase. But state coincident indexes show fewer states grew in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment Update on Stocks Across Various Time Frames

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I look at stock sentiment -- short-term, intermediate, and long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Recommending Higher Interest Coverage and Earnings Growth Estimate Factors

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Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term EPS Growth Estimate. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline, Charles Schwab, Aetna, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Intel, Cisco.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

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Southwest Airlines Co. is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. LUV is at an all-time high with favorable price momentum ranking and relative strength. The stock trades at a discount to other Industrials companies (based on trailing earnings).

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

A Few Stocks Are Driving Returns. Happens Most Years.

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A small number of stocks account for most of the gains in the NDX 100 and S&P 500. That is common for cap-weighted indices. The lack of breadth thrusts amid falling correlations is a more worrisome development, but overall breadth remains positive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

What to Expect at Full Employment?

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The labor market can remain tight for a while without surging inflation. A tight labor market does not signal an imminent recession. Current wage growth and inflation trends support a gradual Fed tightening path. We expect another rate hike in June.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Markit Flash PMIs Show A Stronger Service Sector

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Richmond Fed factory activity slows, but services surge. New home sales decrease. Weekly retail sales remain tepid.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash PMIs Show A Stronger Service Sector

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Richmond Fed factory activity slows, but services surge. New home sales decrease. Weekly retail sales remain tepid.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing a New European Equities Fundamental Analysis Tool

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We have developed a new tool to examine European equity valuations. An approach combining sector and country valuations is particularly relevant for sectors such as Financials. Our new report highlights Swedish, French, and Spanish Financials as potentially attractive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

The Most Important Global Macro Chart over the Next Three Months

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Core inflation in the eurozone is perhaps the most important global macro indicator this summer. The trend of global bond yields hinges on the ECB tapering decision. Markets remain skeptical that the ECB will hit its inflation target anytime soon. High real yields are one reason to reduce the allocation gap between the U.S. and other countries.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Oil - The Ideal Set-Up

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Since late February, crude oil sentiment has moved from an optimistic extreme to a pessimistic extreme. Despite pessimistic sentiment, oil fundamentals continue to improve.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Stronger Growth In Q2

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Inflation pressures remain limited.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Stronger Growth In Q2

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Inflation pressures remain limited.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Sexy Six and Narrowing Leadership

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Market being largely driven only by technology stocks. Generally, the broader the move, the healthier.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why the Reflation Trade Did Not Sustain - Debt, Demographics, and Productivity

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I think debt, demographics, and productivity explain a lot of the secular economic stagnation since 2000.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Upturn of Fear, and a Buying Opportunity

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VIX surge unlikely. Watch for volatility to recede as rallying resumes. Volatility can stay low for long periods, but watch for eventual bear market warning. If Trump impeachment process starts, consider volatility uptrends of past impeachments.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Some Pickup In Growth

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims reflect tighter labor market. But consumer economic optimism weakens. Equipment leasing and finance industry confidence also declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Some Pickup In Growth

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims reflect tighter labor market. But consumer economic optimism weakens. Equipment leasing and finance industry confidence also declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold ETF Strategy Recommendations

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We are closing positions in XLI and AMJ today due to relative weakness. We continue to recommend exposure to HEZU, SCIF, RYH, VDC, MTUM, and VIG for now.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Increasing Duration and Implementing Curve Flatteners

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We are increasing our bond exposure by 10% to 100% of benchmark duration. We are implementing curve flattener trades.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Sluggish RUST and a Mean Reversion Trap

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RUST continues to be a cautious marketweight for us. Retail REITs are an area to avoid with brick-and-mortar weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Is There a Connection between Volatility and Spreads?

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Trends in stock volatility have historically correlated with trends in credit spreads. Like stock volatility, bond volatility has also subsided. Trends in bond volatility also tend to correlate with trends in credit spreads.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Is It Time to Freak Out About China?

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Not yet... China's targeted measures to slow growth in certain parts of the economy appear to be working, without impeding broader consumer spending growth. Even so, this government-orchestrated slowdown suggests that if the reflation trade comes back, it likely won't be due to China.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Dover Corporation (DOV)

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Dover Corp. is on a long-term Focus Rank BUY rating. DOV has an elevated price momentum ranking and improving relative strength. Analyst sentiment is reversing higher off of 2016 lows.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Favoring Companies with Greater Interest Coverage

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions, Interest Coverage. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Michelin, Banco Santander, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Akzo Nobel. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Redrow, Standard Life, Relx, Spectric, IMI, Hays.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Extremely Low Fear Index - Does it Work? Also, Bonds Active Versus Passive

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Low levels on the VIX Index have, historically, not been generally consistent with bearish trends. However, short-term shifts in the VIX might be useful to traders.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Jumps

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But housing starts and permits decline. E-commerce continues to grab market share. Empire services grow at a modest pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Jumps

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But housing starts and permits decline. E-commerce continues to grab market share. Empire services grow at a modest pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Latin America Update: Downgrading Brazil, Upgrading Mexico

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We are tactically downgrading Brazilian equities from overweight to marketweight with a three-month view. We are upgrading Mexican equities from underweight to marketweight with a six to 12-month view. While our quantitative indicators paint a divergent picture, policy risks remain high in both countries.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Myth Busting Low Volatility and the Fed

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Volatility is historically low. History suggests that it can remain low as the Fed raises rates. Three out of four cases ultimately ended in cyclical bear markets. 1994-96 was the exception.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

New Lows Ahead in Canadian Spreads

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We expect Canadian bond spreads to continue to fall, hitting new lows relative to the U.S. Excessive reliance on the household sector is unsustainable. The Bank of Canada has no reason to change policy anytime soon.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Emerging Market Bond Funds in Focus

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Emerging Market bond ETFs are showing relative strength, especially local currency denominated funds. Macro factors such as credit spreads and the yield curve continue to support the trend.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Optimism Strengthens

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Empire manufacturing levels off.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Optimism Strengthens

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Empire manufacturing levels off.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Reflation Trade

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Eight measures of the so-called reflation trade are all below long-term trendlines.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Post A Modest Rebound

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CPI inflation remains limited. Consumer sentiment holds up. Business inventories increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Post A Modest Rebound

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CPI inflation remains limited. Consumer sentiment holds up. Business inventories increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sluggish Growth, but Some Hopeful Signs on Investment

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First quarter growth was very poor, but there was a hopeful bounce in investment.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What's Wrong with Homebuilding?

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Since early 2013, Homebuilding relative strength has been choppy just as the growth rate in new home sales has been choppy. We remain vigilant for signs of an acceleration in home sales but remain marketweight Homebuilding and Household Durables for now.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Upgrading Europe ex. U.K. to Overweight - Other Markets Need Energy

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Europe ex. U.K. upgraded from marketweight to overweight. Energy sector rebound would support global rally prospects. Canada and U.K. would stand to benefit.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

PPI Inflation Picks Up

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort pulls back. Housing opportunity up slightly. Federal government posts a typical budget surplus in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Picks Up

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort pulls back. Housing opportunity up slightly. Federal government posts a typical budget surplus in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Emerging Markets: Changing Benchmark, Changing Macro Drivers

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Emerging market indices have become less heavily weighted in commodity sectors and are now tilted heavily toward Tech. Emerging markets are now less of a pure play on the reflation theme. Broad EM ETFs are overbought, we would wait for a better entry point on the trade.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

CBs Feeling Pressure to Normalize Policy

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Real policy rates have been trending lower and all are in negative territory among the four major developed banks. A coordinated reduction in central bank accommodative policies could put upward pressure on bond yields later this year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Global Economic Expansion Maturing?

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We review our favorite global economic indicators, which continue to point to a robust economic recovery. But some of the indicators have begun to level off, suggesting that the expansion is maturing. As long as recession risks remain at bay, the danger of a major bear market is unlikely.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

The Boring 60s

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S&P 500 current streak without a 5% correction is one of the longest on record. Day-to-day market fluctuations are at historically low levels. Bull market still healthy, but recent correction was not enough to set the stage for a meaningful move higher. Several technical studies point to early 1960s as a comparable environment.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Import Prices Strengthen

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OECD U.S. CLI holds steady. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Import Prices Strengthen

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OECD U.S. CLI holds steady. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Becoming a NDR Explorer Power User

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Content List functionality allows you to create customized folders containing user-selected charts and reports. The content within the lists can be downloaded for printing or viewed in a slide show, which helps to quickly see extreme data readings, indicator changes, and shifts in relationships. This functionality is critical for power users in establishing a habit for efficiently consuming and presenting Explorer's wealth of information.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

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Apple is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. AAPL has top quartile valuation, profitability, and price momentum rankings. The stock price is at an all-time high and showing favorable relative strength.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Passive or Active Part II

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Passive investments show record inflows last year; yet correlations on S&P 500 stocks are breaking down, and active funds show relative outperformance.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Korean Election Day Indicator Update

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We remain bullish on MSCI Korea relative to the MSCI EM Index. Valuations are arguably still attractive, and momentum especially strong. While policy risks remain low relative to EM peers, geopolitical risks remain significant.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Still High

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JOLTS show steady labor demand. Wholesale inventories rise. Weekly retail sales pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Still High

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JOLTS show steady labor demand. Wholesale inventories rise. Weekly retail sales pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Quantifying the Power of Dividends

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Using geometric or arithmetic indices, Dividend Growers and Dividend Payers have produced higher returns and lower volatility over the long run. Dividend Growers have produced higher risk-adjusted returns than Dividend Payers with no change in dividends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Regulatory Tightening Reducing Chances of Imbalances Building

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Banks tightened standards and terms on commercial real estate loans and auto loans. A more proactive tightening of credit will reduce the chances of any imbalances from becoming excessive.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Small business optimism off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Small business optimism off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Oil Capitulation?

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Since late February, hedge fund short positioning in crude oil and gasoline futures has spiked. Overall, fundamental data continues to improve.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Follow the Leaders Among Bond ETFs

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The bond sub-model of our ETF AA Model suggests investors focus on corporate bonds, particularly high yield, and emerging market debt. Additionally, our NDR ETF Relative Strength Ranking has been effective for bond fund selection over the past five years. The ranking system also adds convertibles and senior loans as additional bond funds to consider.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Making the Trend Your Friend

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Global data confirms that the trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Improving Labor Market Means More Rate Hikes

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Employment trends remain solid, which means the FOMC is on track for another rate hike in June.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Improving Labor Market Means More Rate Hikes

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Employment trends remain solid, which means the FOMC is on track for another rate hike in June.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is the Fed Friendly or Hostile?

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I discuss what might turn the Fed from fairly neutral to hostile.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - May 2017

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Growth sector leadership has continued in Q2. Shifting 200 basis points of sector allocation from Utilities to Technology. Utilities Sector, Electric Utilities Industry to marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Productivity Trend Remains Depressed

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Vehicle sales rebound at Q2 start. Consumer comfort continues to run high. Layoffs trending down. Factory orders rise slightly. Trade deficit little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Productivity Trend Remains Depressed

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Vehicle sales rebound at Q2 start. Consumer comfort continues to run high. Layoffs trending down. Factory orders rise slightly. Trade deficit little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Rolling Correction With Global Earnings Improvement

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Renewed leadership from lagging sectors could bring confirmation that rolling correction has ended. Cyclical bull supported by earnings outlook and reduced pressure on valuations.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Constructive on the Swedish Krona

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We are bullish on the Swedish krona against the U.S. dollar on a three to six month basis. Technical indicators lean bullish on the krona. Valuation indicators and the rate outlook are also encouraging.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Safe to Wade Back Into the Reflation Pool?

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Reflationary areas currently include Energy, Financials, and developed Europe. In the ETF Strategy, we're bulls on Europe but we're remaining patient with Energy and Financials. We're looking for pessimistic sentiment extremes before wading back in.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Three Reasons Why the FOMC is on Track to Raise Rates in June

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The Fed is on track for a June rate hike.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

ISM Services Activity Regains Strength

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ADP private payrolls growth moderates. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Services Activity Regains Strength

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ADP private payrolls growth moderates. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

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EMCOR Group, Inc. is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. EME has an elevated price momentum ranking and improving relative strength. Analysts' sentiment (price targets, earnings estimates, recommendations) reversing higher off of recent lows.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Has Global Growth Reached a Pitfall?

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Global manufacturing growth eased in April, but we see this as a typical mid-cycle pattern in the business cycle, suggesting global economic conditions remain robust. Developed Europe crowded the top of the list with the highest PMIs in the world. But PMIs for the U.S. and China disappointed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

April Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Valuations, sentiment, and margin debt are way too high, but perhaps offset with political uncertainty.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What's Wrong With Housing?

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The lack of a supply response amid improving demand has helped lift house prices faster than incomes and inflation. Although housing could suffer in the short term due to higher mortgage rates, the long-term trends are encouraging and could add to the longevity of this economic expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

NYC Services Activity Moderates Slightly

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Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NYC Services Activity Moderates Slightly

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Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

How to Play Sell In May

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Sell in May & cycle composite warn of weaker second half. Not confirmed by indicators. Watch breadth. Neutral on Growth/Value.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Greece: Upgrading to Marketweight

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We are upgrading Greek equities from Underweight to Marketweight relative to the EM benchmark. This morning's confirmation of a creditor agreement materially alters the outlook for Greek stocks. Challenges remain, with an upcoming parliamentary vote a near-term catalyst.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

European High Yield Moves to Low Yield

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European high yield led global returns in April, helped by a stronger euro. Yields on Pan-Euro HY fell below 3.00% for the first time. French sovereign bonds outperformed bunds by the most in four years.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Loses Momentum

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Personal income and spending soft; inflation pressures ease. Construction spending down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Loses Momentum

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Personal income and spending soft; inflation pressures ease. Construction spending down slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ETF AA Model Update - "Sell in May? Not Quite."

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Though history suggests that "Sell in May" has been a terrific strategy, our model continues to recommend a full 100% equity exposure. Within equities, the model carries over a heavy weight in QQQ and recommends adding more to developed international, EFA.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

More Pros and Cons on Trend Following

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but I discuss the pros and cons from trend following indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Advance Q1 GDP Soft, But Capex Shines

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Employment Cost Index up by the most since 2007. Consumer sentiment remains high. But regional factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Advance Q1 GDP Soft, But Capex Shines

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Employment Cost Index up by the most since 2007. Consumer sentiment remains high. But regional factory activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Concern About Drop in Loan Demand, Plus Inflation and Profits

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I answer a question on the importance of loan demand growth falling. It is not a major problem, but I would not ignore it either. Once again, I feature a relationship between inflation and profits.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Are Bond Flows Drying Up?

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Money continued to pour into bond mutual funds in March. But April has seen a sharp reduction of inflows.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Strategy Update - Equity Allocation and Currencies

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For confirmation that renewed rallying has started, watch for breadth thrust signals, bullish Rally Watch majority, and reassertive uptrend in Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio. Currencies reversing from sentiment extremes. Low real rates support continuation of currency ranges.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

G7 and BRIC Outlook: Risks Subsiding?

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We provide our quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and regions. Economic conditions have continued to improve among the world's largest economies compared to our last comprehensive assessment in January, as we had anticipated. The global economy remains on solid footing , but still has political tail risks.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Durable Goods Orders Increase Slightly

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Advance goods trade deficit widens, while Q1 real GDP tracks near flat growth. Consumer comfort rebounds, but some business confidence measures ease. Home ownership rate ticks up. Pending home sales edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Increase Slightly

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Advance goods trade deficit widens, while Q1 real GDP tracks near flat growth. Consumer comfort rebounds, but some business confidence measures ease. Home ownership rate ticks up. Pending home sales edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Should Gold Go Into Your ETF Portfolio

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The trend evidence is mixed on gold funds and sentiment is now overly optimistic. We do not like it for a trade at this time. As far as whether it belongs in your portfolio for diversification benefits and as an inflation hedge, the answer may be "no".

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Key Sector Trends Update

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Our update of six key relative strength trends shows Technology broke above resistance, Health Care failed to break out, Financials broke support, and all others held support. Based on current trends, we have shifted weight from Financials to Energy and may soon upgrade Technology and Consumer Discretionary. We maintain our significant overweight on Industrials and underweight on Health Care.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

State Coincident Indexes Support Broad-Based Growth

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Business employment dynamics improve. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Support Broad-Based Growth

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Business employment dynamics improve. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Higher Quality Strategies Well Positioned for the Environment

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Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Shareholder Yield. Selected Stocks Include: Ross Stores, Baker Hughes, American Express, Boeing, Raytheon, Texas Instruments, HP.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Gap Inc. (GPS)

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Gap Inc. is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. GPS relative strength improving and the stock trades for under 13x forward earnings. Analysts' sentiment reversing higher off of all-time low.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Is the Shiller P/E Distorted?

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I look at some of the objections to the Shiller P/E ratio, and conclude the market is overvalued.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

As Washington Debates, Stimulus Fades

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NDR Policy Index has dropped due to less friendly Fed. Tax cuts likely needed for Policy Index rebound. Intermediate-term market outlook remain bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Moderates Slightly

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New home sales march higher. Existing home prices continue to advance. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales grow modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Moderates Slightly

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New home sales march higher. Existing home prices continue to advance. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales grow modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tracking Trumponomics

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Two new charts show some progress in the labor market, but lack of stimulus could stifle expectations for stronger growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

European Funds in Focus

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European equity funds continue to ascend our relative strength rankings. We remain bullish in the ETF Strategy. However, we are now watching for indications that these funds are becoming overbought and investors extremely optimistic. Neither condition is currently in place. Currency hedged alternatives have been losing relative strength versus their unhedged counterparts, but we are not ready to close out our HEZU recommendation.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Oil: Lessons in Volatility & Humility

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Total U.S. petroleum inventories are now declining on a YOY basis. Following an initial tightening of total petroleum inventories, crude oil prices usually rise. We discuss the market's nervousness regarding recent inventory reports.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

France: Buy Relief, not Hope

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The result of the first round of the presidential election was better than the worst case for markets. While we think an FN victory in May to be unlikely, Macron also faces many hurdles. From a short-term standpoint, a relief rally is likely to persist, but we are skeptical of a longer-term French reform trade.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

CFNAI Shows Slightly Softer Growth

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Texas manufacturing conditions steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Slightly Softer Growth

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Texas manufacturing conditions steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why the French Election Results Could be Bearish for Global Bonds

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The initial market reaction was as we anticipated, as risk-on returned. The reduction in political uncertainty and an economy performing well will lead to speculation that the ECB will change its rate guidance and announce it will taper its bond buying next year. The tapering of ECB asset purchases could trigger a series of bond bearish events. But core inflation is far from the ECB's target.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Three Step Rule

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Objective trend evidence still leans bullish, but there are some subjective signs that the uptrend is mature.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Rebound

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Markit U.S. Flash PMIs signal further slowdown in growth. But State Leading Indexes suggest trend-like growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Rebound

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Markit U.S. Flash PMIs signal further slowdown in growth. But State Leading Indexes suggest trend-like growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Confidence Soars, Employment Solid, but Fish Aren't Biting

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Confidence is soaring and employment is strong, but this is not necessarily bullish for stocks. Meanwhile, other indicators do not yet confirm economic strength.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Gold Golden Cross, New Highs Ahead?

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Trend improvement supports bullish outlook for gold. Underpinned by reflation, monetary policies and inflation outlook. Buying opportunity on correction.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Continues to Point to Strengthening Growth

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Philly Fed factory activity moderates, but capex plans rise. Cass Freight shipments volume up modestly. Some business and consumer confidence measures ease. Jobless claims increase slightly. Beige Book indicates modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Continues to Point to Strengthening Growth

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Philly Fed factory activity moderates, but capex plans rise. Cass Freight shipments volume up modestly. Some business and consumer confidence measures ease. Jobless claims increase slightly. Beige Book indicates modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment Tides Slowly Turning

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Our ETF Speculation Index is nearing a buy signal while bond optimism is shifting out of its pessimistic zone. Aggregate optimism remains on reflation trades but that is also beginning to reverse while pessimism can be found in Health Care, Staples, and REITs.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Energy RS and Oil Linked

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Expect the correlation between oil and Energy relative strength to remain high while the price of oil remains in the $50s.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

IBM as a Poster Child

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IBM may tell us something about U.S. economic growth rates since 2000, and the use of creative financial engineering of earnings.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is China's Real Estate Market Showing Any Signs of Cooling?

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Individual city data show that government-imposed real estate restrictions are starting to have an impact, which is so far not that evident in the national data. Supply and demand forces suggest that if and when the real estate curbs are pulled, prices should continue their upward path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Why We're Closing Out the Underweight on French Sovereign Debt

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Heading into the first round of the presidential election, we are closing out our underweight on French sovereign debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Breadth Thrust Unlikely From Current Levels

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Correction not yet deep enough to expect a breadth thrust. Short-term sentiment and shape of VIX curve are both signaling that investors are nervous, but not yet at extremes that have marked recent bottoms. Bigger correction would set the stage for a stronger advance. Market can move higher from here, but rally would likely be underwhelming.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

GBP/USD: Upgrading Our Near-Term View

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The recent political surprises in the U.K. have prompted us to change our outlook on GBP/USD. The U.K. general election is likely to dull the impact of the hard Brexit lobby. Softening rate expectations in the U.S. contribute to the case for a stronger GBP.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Turkey: Upgrading to Marketweight

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Erdogan's referendum was controversial, but the economy has exhibited qualified signs of stabilization. Momentum has been weak, but valuations and the currency arguably appealing. We upgrade Turkish equities from Underweight to Marketweight with a three-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

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JetBlue Airways Corp. is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. The stock is trading for under 11x trailing and forward earnings. JBLU relative strength is favorable compared to the broad market, Industrials, and Airlines.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Architecture Billings Up, But Future Demand Eases

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Mortgage applications mixed. ATA truck tonnage slips.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Architecture Billings Up, But Future Demand Eases

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Mortgage applications mixed. ATA truck tonnage slips.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Lower Volatility Outperforming This Year

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Michelin, ING Groep, Siemens, Arkema. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Burberry Group, Persimmon, Booker Group, Wolseley, Intertek Group, Smiths Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Another Look at My Take on Bond Sentiment/Valuation

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Sentiment on bonds still suggests patience before yields move higher.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Utilities Boost Industrial Production, While Manufacturing Drops

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Housing starts meander. State coincident indexes show broad-based growth. Empire services up, but outlook moderates. Weekly retail sales improve slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Utilities Boost Industrial Production, While Manufacturing Drops

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Housing starts meander. State coincident indexes show broad-based growth. Empire services up, but outlook moderates. Weekly retail sales improve slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Where Is Policy Stimulus Headed?

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The current policy mix remains supportive of trend economic expansion. With the Fed on a tightening path and amid risk of a stronger dollar, lack of fiscal stimulus could dash expectations of faster growth this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Short-Term Breakout?

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If the market doesn't quickly reverse back into the ranges and overbought conditions are relieved, then further rallies are likely.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Companies Investing More, but Cash Still King for Stock Performance

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EPS rebounded, but cash flow fell amid stalling operating cash flow growth and increase in investments. Companies that keep their cash continue to outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Another Piece of the Passive vs. Active Puzzle - SKEW

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Stock universes tend to show positive skew, implying that a random selection of a stock is statistically unlikely to result in picking a "winner." The larger and more diverse the universe, the more positively skewed the distribution. Investors with great expertise in an area may be able to produce outsize gains given these characteristics. Investors without the expertise should consider indexing their exposure to certain areas.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Confidence Tapers Off Slightly

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Empire state manufacturing activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Confidence Tapers Off Slightly

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Empire state manufacturing activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Volume Clues

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There are signs of a short-term correction, but longer-term price and volume momentum still lean bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Decline, But Longer-Term Trend Holding Up

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CPI inflation pressures ease. Business inventories and sales rise. State leading indexes mostly positive. Housing affordability range-bound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Decline, But Longer-Term Trend Holding Up

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CPI inflation pressures ease. Business inventories and sales rise. State leading indexes mostly positive. Housing affordability range-bound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sector Shifts

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Moving 200 basis points of sector allocation from Financials to Energy. Lowering Financials, Banks, and Capital Markets to marketweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Producer Prices Edge Down Slightly

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Consumer sentiment and comfort rise. Jobless claims continue to decline. Federal budget deficit widens significantly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Producer Prices Edge Down Slightly

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Consumer sentiment and comfort rise. Jobless claims continue to decline. Federal budget deficit widens significantly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Bond Fund Breakout & New Screener Additions

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Bond fund ETFs are breaking resistance and it is evident in bond-proxy equity ETF plays. We added a number of quality and profitability factors to our ETF Screener.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Countertrend Rally

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The recent bond rally has not been surprising. Nevertheless, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate. We now favor Caa within high yield.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Shifty 50, Trending 200, And A Jolted Japan - Now Underweight

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Comparisons of 50 and 200-day moving averages describe a bull market correction. Rally in risk-off yen consistent with correction and Japan underperformance. Downgrading Japan to underweight, upgrading U.S. and U.K. to marketweight, adding to Pacific ex. Japan overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Is the Supposed Decline in Global Credit an Ominous Sign for the Economy?

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Global credit trends have been mixed by country, contrary to reports that global credit is slumping. Loan growth tends to be an inconsistent or lagging indicator.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Italy: Looking Past France and Banks

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The political and macro outlook for Italy remains challenging. The Italian equity index ex-financials looks offers a way to capitalize on non-Italian factors. Globally-oriented Italian companies offer insulation against politically-driven market risks.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Housing and Autos - Upside Potential, but Also Big Problems

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Housing and autos have performed above average this cycle, but I am dubious going forward.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Import Prices Edge Down

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Mortgage applications show steady housing demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

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