Recent Publications

Today's Beat Generation ... A More Complacent Crowd

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Beat rates have trended higher globally, but momentum has slowed. Global confirmation of declining beat rates would be a potential market threat. Market tops have occurred during periods of negative beat rate momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Hard vs. Soft Economic Data

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I show an update on how well hard data has followed soft data. It has followed, but in most cases, to a lesser extent.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Consumer Staples Is Officially the Most Hated Sector

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Strong earnings growth from cyclical sectors and rising rates are causing Consumer Staples' to still look relatively expensive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

LEI Points To A Positive Growth Outlook

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims continue to show tight labor market conditions. Consumer comfort and expectations mixed. Equipment finance industry confidence declines. E-commerce grabs more market share.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

LEI Points To A Positive Growth Outlook

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims continue to show tight labor market conditions. Consumer comfort and expectations mixed. Equipment finance industry confidence declines. E-commerce grabs more market share.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

How Can You Gauge the Risk of a Trade War?

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As trade tensions heat up between the U.S. and China, we introduce the NDR Global Trade Monitor to gauge trade war risks. Global trade conditions remain quite favorable on balance, suggesting that so far, the global economy has shrugged off the threat of a trade war. But there are a few worrisome signs.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Sitting on a Knife's Edge

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Closing above the 3.10% level on the 10-year Treasury is a prerequisite for declaring a bond bear market. The behavior of the German curve could determine whether we buy or sell on a yield breakout.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production Starts Q2 Strong

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Housing starts and permits volatile, but trend up. Mortgage applications decline. Empire services activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Starts Q2 Strong

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Housing starts and permits volatile, but trend up. Mortgage applications decline. Empire services activity rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Price Momentum Outperforming Other Factors

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Price momentum has been the top stock-return driver within Europe over the last month, quarter, and year. Continue to favor companies with greater earnings revisions, lower accruals, and higher free cash flow yields. European stocks with favorable characteristics include: Fiat Chrysler, Statoil, Zurich Insurance, Muenchener Rueckver, Volvo, Sandvik, Persimmon, Tesco, Legal & General Group, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

More on Peak Earnings

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I present tables in peak and trough earnings and how the market performs around them. Also, active/passive flow updates.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Repurchase Resurgence

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Companies have not always been the best timers of buying back their own stocks, but high repurchasers have outperformed over the long run. Buybacks have joined dividends as a flexible means of returning capital to shareholders. Performance during blackout periods quantifies the importance of buybacks.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Property Posts Positive Returns in Q1 but Outlook Deteriorating

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In contrast to stocks and bonds, property posted a positive return in Q1. Led by warehouses, Industrial continued to dominate. Nevertheless, the outlook for commercial real estate is slowly deteriorating. We would be extra careful about adding to CRE portfolios at this time.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

What we are Watching on the Swedish Krona

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Despite a slightly positive near-term picture, SEK technicals are bearish. Fundamentals are slightly positive. Pending an improvement in technicals and confirmation of inflation dynamics we remain neutral USD/SEK and EUR/SEK.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Retail Sales Hold In An Uptrend

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Builder confidence rebounds. Business inventories flat. Empire manufacturing picks up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Hold In An Uptrend

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Builder confidence rebounds. Business inventories flat. Empire manufacturing picks up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

When Will Central Bank Balance Sheets Stop Expanding?

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We could see a net reduction in balance sheets as soon as October. But the reduction will be modest against a combined balance sheet backdrop of nearly $15 trillion.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

The S&P 500 May Be Range Bound, But These ETFs Aren't!

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New report identifies ETFs that closed the week at significant new highs/lows. Positive Price Action: Small-cap and energy stocks. Negative Price Action: Dividend/Value and Mexican stocks.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Consistent With Above-Trend Growth

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April budget surplus does not change the longer-term outlook. Housing affordability declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Consistent With Above-Trend Growth

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April budget surplus does not change the longer-term outlook. Housing affordability declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

More Mixed Indicator Evidence

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Some mixed trend evidence, but Big Mo Tape still leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Import Price Inflation Steady

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Also, consumer sentiment holds steady at high levels, but Real Estate Roundtable sentiment eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Import Price Inflation Steady

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Also, consumer sentiment holds steady at high levels, but Real Estate Roundtable sentiment eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

GDP Perspectives

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I just cannot see the economic acceleration most people see clearly.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Credit Conditions Index Falls to Six-Year Low

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Steady deterioration in the consumer component has led the decline. Nevertheless, credit conditions remain broadly favorable for the economy and for risk assets.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Lacking Reasons to Reallocate

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Recent contra-trend moves likely to give way to reassertive long-term trends. Indicator evidence continues to call for overweight allocation to equities, underweight allocation to the U.K. and Europe ex. U.K., overweight allocation to Emerging Markets. Also maintaining long-term views that are bearish on the dollar and bullish on gold.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Sector Monthly Update - May 2018

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Rising commodity price concerns likely pressured Industrials and Materials sectors in April. We still like our capex comeback theme, but Tech is preferred over Industrials right now.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Consumer Prices Edge Up, But Remain Contained

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Also, Housing Opportunity improves and jobless claims lowest since 1969.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Prices Edge Up, But Remain Contained

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Also, Housing Opportunity improves and jobless claims lowest since 1969.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Are Young People Up To Any Good?

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Participation in the work force among youth has generally been declining in the developed world for several decades, due to some good, but also some bad, reasons. The countries that have been able to make the best use of their youth are Switzerland, Canada, and Australia, while the worst are Italy, Portugal, and France.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Producer Prices Edge Up

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Also, wholesale inventories rise, KC Fed labor indicator remains strong, freight transportation jumps, and mortgage applications slip.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Producer Prices Edge Up

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Also, wholesale inventories rise, KC Fed labor indicator remains strong, freight transportation jumps, and mortgage applications slip.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

What Are Peak Earnings Worth?

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Sentiment/valuation shows no bullish fat pitch.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Grounds for Optimism in EM Currencies?

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The MYR, THB, TRY, INR, and Eastern European currencies appear particularly weak on a technical basis. Valuations for EM currencies remain generally cheap against the dollar. EM central banks benefit from significant rate flexibility.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Small Business Optimism Holds Strong

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Also, job openings jump to a record, while weekly retail sales rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Small Business Optimism Holds Strong

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Also, job openings jump to a record, while weekly retail sales rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

EM Bonds on Notice

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The widening of EM bond spreads has accelerated in recent days, as the U.S. dollar has strengthened. EM bonds are badly underperforming U.S. high yield. A downgrade is possible in the coming days. Led by policy problems in Mexico and Argentina, Latam is leading the underperformance. Commodity producing countries are generally outperforming the index.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

How Necessary Are Breadth Thrusts?

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The market has not needed breadth thrusts to make new highs after corrections, but rallies have been 62% shallower and 73% shorter without them.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

What ETF Best Aligns with our Current U.S. Recommendations?

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PowerShares Dynamic Large-Cap Growth Portfolio (PWB) aligns well with NDR sector/cap/style recommendations. PWB also provides nice exposure to the current U.S. Model Portfolio stock list.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Communication Breakdown

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Later this year, three of the S&P Dow Jones/MSCI Global Industry Classification Standard sectors are being modified. We review and summarize the new Communication Services sector and highlight major changes to Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Solutions Quarterly | Quarterly

Employment Trends Show More Tightening

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Used vehicle prices post a seasonal rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Employment Trends Show More Tightening

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Used vehicle prices post a seasonal rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Modest Changes To The Fab Five Composite

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I discuss some changes to the Fab Five. Trend evidence is neutral.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Energy Equities - Getting Into Gear

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Our Energy Trend Model is signaling higher Prices for Energy Equities.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Bi-Weekly

Labor Markets Tighten, as Pool of Available Labor Shrinks

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This report suggests the Fed will remain on its policy normalization path and raise rates by another 25 bp in June.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Labor Markets Tighten, as Pool of Available Labor Shrinks

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This report suggests the Fed will remain on its policy normalization path and raise rates by another 25 bp in June.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Inflation Update

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There are lots of signs of cyclical inflation pressures.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

No Shortage of Positives

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Indicators describe bullish conditions for global equities, with Global Balanced Account Model recommending more overweight equity allocation. Correlations remaining positive between bond yields and equities, as market has yet to view rising bond yields as a threat to economic growth and profitability. Interest rates have yet to reach levels at which positive rate differentials would have bullish implications for the U.S. Dollar Index, with currency investors more focused on the more positively correlating economic differentials.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

ISM Services Activity Moderates

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Layoff trends show tight labor markets. Productivity growth remains sluggish. Factory orders increase. Trade deficit shrinks. State leading indexes show broad-based growth ahead. Consumer comfort declines, but upward trend intact.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Services Activity Moderates

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Layoff trends show tight labor markets. Productivity growth remains sluggish. Factory orders increase. Trade deficit shrinks. State leading indexes show broad-based growth ahead. Consumer comfort declines, but upward trend intact.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Cutting Euro Exposure on Short-Term Basis

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We would take profits on EUR/USD long positions, shifting to neutral with a one- to three-month view. Technical composites for the EUR and GBP have deteriorated in recent weeks. Negative European macroeconomic data trends add to the bearish picture.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Does Sell in May Mean Sell Cyclical Sectors?

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Investors should factor in the current direction of the market and interest rates before getting defensively positioned during the "sell in May and go away" months.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Global Economy Recovers Modestly, Is the Worst Behind Us?

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The global PMIs rebounded modestly in April, following a Q1 soft patch, but some areas of concern persist. While the vast majority of economies continued to expand, developed markets, led by the U.S. and Europe, continued to outperform emerging markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Supply Train Coming!

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We expect two to four more Fed rate hikes before policy is deemed neutral. We estimate $1.4 trillion of added bond supply in 2018 and $1.5 trillion in 2019. Spreads may widen.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Light Vehicle Sales Still Strong

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ADP payrolls post a solid gain. Online labor demand remains choppy. NYC services activity and revenues accelerate. Mortgage applications slide.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Light Vehicle Sales Still Strong

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ADP payrolls post a solid gain. Online labor demand remains choppy. NYC services activity and revenues accelerate. Mortgage applications slide.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Few Cracks In Earlier Levels Of Confidence, But It Hangs Strong

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Extreme optimism has eased, but I still see sentiment/valuation risks.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Sell in May vs. What the Models Say

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The sell in May period has been especially weak during mid-term years. Our models remain positive. Treat sell in May as an additional hurdle to breaking out of the current trading range instead of a true sell signal. Models and seasonality favor large-caps over small-caps and Growth over Value.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

The Leadership Myth

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The heterogeneity within the index makes a benchmark weight driven approach particularly problematic when applied to emerging market equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Comment | Monthly

ISM Manufacturing Activity Moderates

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Construction spending declines. But small business confidence holds high. Texas services activity continues to expand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Activity Moderates

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Construction spending declines. But small business confidence holds high. Texas services activity continues to expand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Banks Giving Up on Bonds as Yields Rise

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Bonds fell for the third month this year. High yield resumed its outperformance. Global bonds performed even worse in USD terms. Banks are finding better places to put their money.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Explaining Income Inequality and Profits in One Chart

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Globalization and technology help explain the erosion of labor's share of gross value added. Profits were the biggest beneficiaries of labor's demise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

ETF Model Gets More Aggressive

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Bond exposure drops from 28% to 7% with 14% going to equities and 7% moving to cash. Big drop in dividend/value and emerging market fund exposure. Small-cap and EAFE funds see the largest increase in allocation. Junk bonds is the only fixed income category to see an increase in exposure.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

G7 and BRIC Outlook: Is This a Soft Patch or Something More?

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We provide our quarterly economic update of the world's major countries and region. Compared to our last outlook in February, economic conditions have stabilized or worsened among most of the world's largest economies, partly due to temporary reasons. Inflation pressures remain mostly muted. But there is room for upside in the U.S. and the eurozone. We maintain our view for slow and gradual normalization of monetary policy.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Inflation Reaches Fed Target, Income and Spending Rise

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Regional factory activity mixed. Pending home sales move sideways.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Inflation Reaches Fed Target, Income and Spending Rise

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Regional factory activity mixed. Pending home sales move sideways.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Same Indicator Bullish and Bearish

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I show some mixed trend evidence.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Q1 Real GDP Growth Moderates

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Compensation costs rise, led by private sector wages. Consumer sentiment continues to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q1 Real GDP Growth Moderates

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Compensation costs rise, led by private sector wages. Consumer sentiment continues to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Mixed Macro Observations

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Despite a strong belief that economy has picked up momentum the last 6 months, I still see mixed indicator evidence.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

A Reassertive Reflation Theme

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Reflation theme evident in commodity strength and outperformance of resource-related sectors. Earnings beat rate supports prospects for Tech recovery, which would help Emerging Markets realign with other theme beneficiaries. Renewed dollar weakness would be consistent with correlations and long-term trends, gold and commodity indices trend higher.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

The Rerating of Biotechnology

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We believe large-cap Biotech is being rerated for its slower sales growth. We downgrade to marketweight, waiting for signs of margin improvement.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Durable Goods Orders Up, Led By Aircraft

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K.C. Fed manufacturing strengthens. Advance goods trade deficit narrows sharply. Homeownership rate continues to edge up. Jobless claims at lowest level since 1969. Consumer comfort off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Up, Led By Aircraft

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K.C. Fed manufacturing strengthens. Advance goods trade deficit narrows sharply. Homeownership rate continues to edge up. Jobless claims at lowest level since 1969. Consumer comfort off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

When is Monetary Policy No Longer Accommodative?

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We expect little change in the FOMC's statement next week. Despite six rate hikes, the Fed insists that "monetary policy remains accommodative." At some point, the FOMC will need to modify that phrase. We share four perspectives and conclude the FOMC will likely settle on 2-4 more hikes before it modifies its "accommodative" phrase.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Broad-Based Growth

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Truck tonnage remains strong. Mortgage applications stall. Employment dynamics deteriorate in Q3 2017, due to hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Show Broad-Based Growth

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Truck tonnage remains strong. Mortgage applications stall. Employment dynamics deteriorate in Q3 2017, due to hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Frequently Asked Sentiment Questions and a Change on DAVIS265

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I feature a new indicator from the Commitment of Traders data.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Not Worth Fighting Price Momentum After Corrections

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After market corrections, price momentum strategies briefly stagnate, but then resume positive trajectory. Don't fight Mo! Favor Companies with the Following Factor Exposures: EPS Growth/Stability, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Earnings Revisions. Stocks Demonstrating These Characteristics Include S&P Global, Progressive, UnitedHealth, AbbVie, Boeing, Raytheon, Apple, Facebook, Intel, Visa, Cisco, Mastercard.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Pre-Election U.K. Equity Review

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May's local elections in England are the next political test markets will face. Short-term technical indicators for the MSCI U.K. benchmark are positive. Sterling weakness related to political volatility will likely help U.K. equities near-term.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

What to Make of the Deteriorating U.S. Fiscal Position?

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The U.S. is facing numerous risks from a ballooning budget deficit and mounting debt. Projected faster economic growth is not enough to cushion the blow. Expect an increased supply of government securities, higher interest rates, and a pickup in inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Continues To Trend Up

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New home sales increase. Existing home prices rise across the country. Richmond business activity declines sharply.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Consumer Confidence Continues To Trend Up

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New home sales increase. Existing home prices rise across the country. Richmond business activity declines sharply.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Yield Curve Hyperboles

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Overreaction to yield curve flattening and steepening is grounded in sentiment, not fundamentals. The Fed continues to skew the yield curve's message. Focus on yield curve components and confirming data. Most interest rate indicators remain supportive of equities, but they could change if the 10-year yield breaks out quickly.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Are Treasurys Relatively Attractive?

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On a currency-hedged basis, Treasurys are modestly attractive. There are good fundamental and technical factors why the U.S. has underperformed.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Monthly

Updating the NDR ETF Satellite Recommendations

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Maintaining iShares Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) & PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors Portfolio (PSI) recommendations. Closing PowerShares S&P 500 Equal-Weight Health Care Portfolio (RYH) recommendation. Looking to establish SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recommendation if gold has a weekly close above $1,360.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Softer Growth In Q1

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But Markit U.S. flash PMIs point to an upturn in April. Existing home sales increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Softer Growth In Q1

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But Markit U.S. flash PMIs point to an upturn in April. Existing home sales increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Moving Average Studies Mostly Lean Bullish

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Moving average studies lean mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Keynes Warning

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Excessive money printing and huge deficits could be a problem long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Watching Confirmation and the Beat Rates Ahead

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End of correction confirmed by model and indicator improvement, relative performance among sectors. With earnings season underway, high and rising beat rates would be a positive influence. Comparing beat rates and valuations globally, the U.S. could be source of rising risk later this year or in 2019.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Leading Indicators Support Continued Expansion

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Philly Fed factory activity solid, but outlook moderates. Consumer comfort highest since 2001, but expectations ease. Jobless claims remain low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Leading Indicators Support Continued Expansion

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Philly Fed factory activity solid, but outlook moderates. Consumer comfort highest since 2001, but expectations ease. Jobless claims remain low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Energy and Tech to Overweight, Financials to Marketweight

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Financials lowered to marketweight on weak Diversified Bank performance. Energy and Technology raised to overweight on strong breadth measures. Energy sector relative strength may have made a major bottom in March.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Has the Credit Quality of the Aggs Deteriorated?

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The credit quality of the major Aggregates has deteriorated. Most of the credit deterioration has occurred since the financial crisis. The deterioration was most dramatic in the Euro-Agg. Credit quality is likely to improve in the coming quarters.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Is the Global Economy Losing Some Steam?

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Several of our closely-watched global economic indicators have peaked in recent months, suggesting that global economic momentum may have topped. But only time will tell if the best is now behind us or if this is just a temporary retreat. The good news is that none of our indicators are in recessionary territory.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

A Turning Point in European Sentiment?

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Key European sentiment barometers are at low points. Model and Scorecard readings for European equities reflect an unappealing relative outlook. Sentiment evidence is on balance leaning bullish for European equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Architecture Billings Soften

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Housing affordability off slightly. But mortgage applications rebound. Equipment finance industry confidence eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Architecture Billings Soften

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Housing affordability off slightly. But mortgage applications rebound. Equipment finance industry confidence eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Short-Term Sentiment - Consistent with Rally Longer-Term Measures Show High Risks

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Short-term Sentiment improved, but not so much longer-term measures.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Favor Stocks With Higher Earnings Revisions

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The earnings revisions factor strategy has favorable characteristics for the current environment as well as a strong composite score. You should also seek companies with greater price momentum, lower accruals, and higher free cash flow yields. European stocks with favorable characteristics include: Fiat Chrysler, Pernod Ricard, Statoil, Zurich Insurance, Linde, Tesco, Persimmon, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Will Value Ever Outperform Again?

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Yes, Value should outperform Growth again, but a few more things need to fall in place before a Value rally can be sustained for more than a few months. Value's best chance will come when the economy and Fed policy normalize. Value relative strength via Growth absolute weakness would likely require a major bear market.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Industrial Production Up

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Housing starts rebound. Transportation activity strengthens. Empire services activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Industrial Production Up

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Housing starts rebound. Transportation activity strengthens. Empire services activity moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Postponing the Day of Reckoning

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More slack in the economy than previously thought. Sustained, above-target inflation might not show up until 2019. Declaring a bond bear market might be similarly delayed.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Golden Portfolio

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Fundamental and technical picture remain strong for gold. Widening budget deficit should weigh on the dollar and put upward pressure on bond yields. Investors with flexible mandates should consider swapping bond exposure for gold.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Crude Oil: Technical Update

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Geopolitical tensions push oil to new multi-year highs. Despite near-term headwinds, crude's technical outlook remains strong.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Retail Sales Bounce Back

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Business inventories up. Builder confidence off slightly. Empire manufacturing outlook tumbles.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Retail Sales Bounce Back

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Business inventories up. Builder confidence off slightly. Empire manufacturing outlook tumbles.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Global Tape Takes Slight Hits, But Remains Mildly Bullish

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Global trend evidence leans mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Gold and Dollar Lack Drama, but Long-Term Trends Intact

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Long-term gold uptrend and dollar downtrend remain intact, and we are aligned with those trends. Gold uptrend supported by negative real rates, global reflation, rising inflation expectations and the dollar weakness. Dollar downtrend supported by economic differentials, the U.S. budget deficit, and real yields that remain too low for the dollar to benefit from widening rate differentials.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Consumer Sentiment Pulls Back

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But state leading indexes project stellar growth. JOLTS continue to show tighter labor market.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Pulls Back

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But state leading indexes project stellar growth. JOLTS continue to show tighter labor market.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Another Macro Data Set Where 2+2 Does Not Add Up

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Profits may not be as spectacular for the economy as Wall Street focus on S&P 500 would suggest.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

The New Amazon Consumer Sector

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At the end of September, S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI will make significant changes to the GICS structure. Those changes would have the effect of raising Amazon's weight to 27% of S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary and 43% of S&P 500 Retailing, if implemented today.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Import Price Inflation Steady

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Consumer comfort continues to surge. Jobless claims slide. Budget deficit on a widening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Import Price Inflation Steady

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Consumer comfort continues to surge. Jobless claims slide. Budget deficit on a widening path.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

What Muni Investors Most Get Wrong

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Munis are not just for individual investors. Tax reform upended the supply/demand balance by reducing the attractiveness of munis for financial institutions. Unless individuals make up the shortfall, cheaper prices may be needed to lower the breakeven implied tax rate.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Does China Have the Upper Hand in a Trade War?

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On the surface, China does not have the retaliatory power to win a trade war with the U.S. But China could still inflict a decent amount of damage on the U.S. economy if the threat were to come into play.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Annual Core CPI Inflation Accelerates

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Also, mortgage applications fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Annual Core CPI Inflation Accelerates

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Also, mortgage applications fall.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Better But---Where's the Cash?

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Big shift in sentiment should mean a nice buildup in sidelines cash, but I don't see it.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Small Business Optimism Takes A Notch Down

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PPI inflation up Also, OECD CLI and state coincident indexes show strong growth trends.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Small Business Optimism Takes A Notch Down

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PPI inflation up Also, OECD CLI and state coincident indexes show strong growth trends.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Cut Russia Exposure Pending Sanctions Clarity

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We are downgrading Russian equities and Russian banks to marketweight. Monday's moves saw breaches of key technical supports. At present, bearish politics and technicals overshadow valuations and other fundamentals.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Corporate America Not Following Nick Foles' Example

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Evidence continues to mount that buybacks are the preferred use of cash from repatriation and tax cuts. Cash is king. Stocks with high cash/asset ratios outperforming other capital allocation strategies. Among uses of cash, repurchase yield has outperformed capex/assets YTD.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Guard Against Compensation Complacency

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There has been a clear acceleration among the various employment statistics for the goods-producing sector. Compensation has been accelerating for production workers but not for managers. Compensation is likely coming in other forms such as bonuses and stock options.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Increased Bond Supply Takes Us Closer to a Bond Bear

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Budget deficits ballooning. We will soon have representation from each of the four areas of our Bond Bear Watch report.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Earnings Season to the Rescue!

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NDR estimates between $600 and $800 billion will be spent on share buybacks this year. Companies typically suspend discretionary buyback programs five weeks before releasing earnings. Since 2013 stocks have struggled in the 20 days leading into the start of earnings season. Look for a significant source of stock demand to return in the coming weeks with Q1 earnings season kicking off. Several ETFs focus on stocks where buyback activity is high.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Hold Up

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State leading indexes show solid growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Hold Up

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State leading indexes show solid growth ahead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tape Takes Eight Hits But Has Not Broken Down

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There are two sides to tape action but our composites still lean slightly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Payback Time!

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Despite softer payrolls growth in March, the trend of continued labor market tightening remains intact. We see little change to the outlook for monetary policy. Expect the next rate hike at the June FOMC meeting.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Payback Time!

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Despite softer payrolls growth in March, the trend of continued labor market tightening remains intact. We see little change to the outlook for monetary policy. Expect the next rate hike at the June FOMC meeting.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why Safe Haven Assets Haven't Performed as Expected

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Several safe havens performed as expected. The ones that did not all had a high sensitivity to U.S. interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Cost and Availability of Money

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I rate Fed Policy as no longer friendly, but not quite hostile yet.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Tectonic Shift in Sentiment? Tonic for a Tech-Led Recovery

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With pessimism extreme and earnings season ahead, watch for renewed upside momentum. Recovery would be likely to include better returns from positively-correlated Tech sectors and worsened performance from inversely-correlating defensive sectors. Tech-heavy U.S. and Emerging Market indices would stand to benefit, defensive-heavy indices would be negatively affected.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Trade Deficit Continues to Widen

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CEO confidence and consumer comfort continue to rise. Layoffs up, but trend remains favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Trade Deficit Continues to Widen

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CEO confidence and consumer comfort continue to rise. Layoffs up, but trend remains favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Sector Monthly Update - April 2018

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Outperformance from bond-proxy sectors in March hurt. However, we need more evidence of market and interest rate deterioration before abandoning our rising rate theme.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Moderates Slightly

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ADP private payrolls jump again. Online labor demand picks up. Vehicle sales surprise to the upside. Factory orders rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Moderates Slightly

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ADP private payrolls jump again. Online labor demand picks up. Vehicle sales surprise to the upside. Factory orders rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Taking Another Step Down

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We are reducing our bond exposure to 85% of benchmark duration from 90%. We are closing out our curve flattener trade.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Retreat from Excessive Optimism but Lack of Pessimism

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March sentiment/valuation data shows a small retreat from excessive optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

Global Manufacturing Loses Momentum, Should We be Worried?

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Global manufacturing on both an aggregate and breadth basis deteriorated in March, partly due to capacity constraints. But there are some indications of clear skies ahead. Developed Europe continued to lead the world with the highest PMIs, but they also led the global monthly slump.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

How Much of America Do Foreigners Own?

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Despite running a large current account deficit, the U.S. still owns the vast majority of its fixed investment and portfolio assets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

State Coincident Indexes Strengthen

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But NYC services activity moderates. Weekly retail sales miss target.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

State Coincident Indexes Strengthen

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But NYC services activity moderates. Weekly retail sales miss target.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Putting Monday's Drop into Perspective

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Compared to early February, technicals are less extreme and pessimism is more extreme, both positive developments. However, the market remains vulnerable until a breadth thrust signals the correction phase is over.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

A Turn of the Tide?

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Some trend evidence questions the bullish thesis.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

High Yield Hurdles

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Despite some liquidity and flow challenges, the high yield sector has held up reasonably well.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

ETF AA Model Update: Decreasing Risk Appetite but Still Overweight Stocks

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Model continues to recommend 72% equity exposure, but several indicators are on the verge of turning bearish. Weakness in F.A.N.G. stocks is evident in a preference for VIG over SPY & QQQ. Recovery in the bond market led to a 14% shift from cash to bonds, raising the fixed income allocation to 28%.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Q1 Benchmark Review: It's Been a While

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Stocks dropped by most since Q3 2015 but still outperformed bonds. Growth and Growth sectors outperformed, but gave back some gains late in Q1. Commodity strength filtered into equities in some cases, but not others.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

Oil - Fundamentals Continue to Strengthen

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Last week's EIA Inventory report was another bullish data point. The reduction in PADD 3 inventories is constructive.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Bi-Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Activity Off Slightly

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Construction spending near flat.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Activity Off Slightly

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Construction spending near flat.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

What the SHUT is Telling Us

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A look at breadth and mean reversion for the SHUT Index relative to our Traditional Cyclicals Index indicates investors are still leaning defensive, something that may persist until mid-term elections. We may temporarily close our defensive sector underweights if we get the sense defensive sector outperformance could persist for at least two quarters.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Odds on a Bear Market

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Volume Supply and Demand has some mixed messages.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | 3X Weekly

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