Recent Publications

Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM)

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Sanderson Farms is on a BUY rating across the short- and long-term Focus Ranks. SAFM has top 20% profitability and valuation rankings. The stock continues to show favorable relative strength compared to the broad market, Staples sector, and Packaged Foods & Meats sub-industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Optimistic Social Mood

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Social mood optimism is the driver of the economy, the stock market, and election results. Still, too much of a good thing can set up poor results.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Shifting to Neutral on Russia

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We are downgrading our view on Russian equities to marketweight with a six- to 12-month view. A fully-priced OFZ market will likely see FX and equity correlations with oil rise. Expecting a devaluation, we would sell the ruble at current levels with a three-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Trends Higher

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Trends Higher

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Regional activity mixed. Weekly retail sales up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Stock Market to Politicians: Keep Arguing

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The Philly Fed's Partisan Conflict Index is near a record high. Stocks have risen faster when the index has been elevated on an absolute basis and relative to the recent past.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Introducing Rich/Cheap Analysis for Global Yield Curves

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We introduce expanded country coverage in BMS_17. Report provides a snapshot of yields, yield changes, spreads, and rich/cheap analysis.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Solar Breakout & My Take on Thematic Funds

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TAN broke through resistance on Friday and has been a very strong performer of late. The fund is high beta and has traditionally received a tailwind from improving leading economic indicators. Several other large thematic ETFs have been top performers this year. The simplicity of a thematic ETF relative to smart beta or actively managed products make these attractive options.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Loss of Growth Momentum

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Durable goods orders decline, led by aircraft. Texas manufacturing moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Loss of Growth Momentum

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Durable goods orders decline, led by aircraft. Texas manufacturing moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Better Than Compounding Returns?

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Dollar-cost averaging and compounding long-term returns has, historically, been a "money making machine". Nevertheless, I continue to be a risk manager. Trend evidence still leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

New Home Sales Rise

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But Markit flash U.S. PMIs show loss of momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

New Home Sales Rise

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But Markit flash U.S. PMIs show loss of momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Profit Growth and Stock Prices

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Over the long run, there is a correlation between profits and stock prices. However, in the short-term, the record can be contrary to logic.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Lower for Longer ... A Lot Longer?

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Falling yields and rising earnings growth have improved relative valuations. Upgrading Japan to overweight, downgrading Pacific ex. Japan to underweight. Lower-for-longer bull market remains likely scenario.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth in 2H 2017

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FHFA house prices keep rising. Jobless claims up slightly. Consumer comfort slips. K.C. Fed factory activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth in 2H 2017

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FHFA house prices keep rising. Jobless claims up slightly. Consumer comfort slips. K.C. Fed factory activity strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold

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We are currently recommending VIG, VDC, HEZU, MTUM, RYH, SCIF, and VNQ for tactical trade ideas. The trends in VDC, MTUM, and RYH continue to impress. We're remaining patient and on the sidelines with Energy for now.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

For Technology, Watch This Indicator

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Earnings revision momentum has long been a key factor for Technology.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

The Macro Implications of the AMZN/WFM Deal

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Deals like this will continue to put downward pressure on prices and make it more difficult for central banks to achieve their inflation targets. Amazon could disrupt the restaurant business, which has been a leading job creator in this expansion. The risks to grocery competitors and restaurants should concern some owners of CRE and CMBS.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Should We Be Worried About China's Inverted Yield Curve?

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China's yield curve has inverted, but it may be due to a few one-off factors. Although we're not euphoric about Chinese economic prospects, growth should remain safely within China's goal of around 6.5% this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Rise

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Architecture billings and construction backlog rebound. State coincident indexes show continued expansion. Truck tonnage consistent with stronger Q2 growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Rise

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Architecture billings and construction backlog rebound. State coincident indexes show continued expansion. Truck tonnage consistent with stronger Q2 growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

MSCI Adds China A-Shares, Are China Funds a Buy?

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Some of the largest emerging market, Asia, and China-tracking ETFs utilize MSCI benchmarks for their underlying indices and the move by MSCI could potentially add demand to A-shares. However, China H-share tracking funds are overbought. China A-share tracking funds are not overbought but need to show relative strength improvement before we initiate a new position in our ETF Strategy.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Cirrus Logic, Inc. (CRUS)

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Cirrus Logic is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. CRUS has top 20% valuation, profitability, and price momentum rankings. Entering the week, overall sentiment was pessimistic and the stock was more than one standard deviation oversold near-term.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Seeking Companies with Favorable Free Cash Flow Valuations

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions, Interest Coverage. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Christian Dior, Zurich Insurance, Sanofi, Atlas Copco, Volvo, Sika. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Carnival, Persimmon, Standard Life, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, IMI, Mondi.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Passive vs. Active - Part 3

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Like growth vs. value, small caps vs. large caps, active vs. passive investing styles came in and out of favor. I believe we are near a turning point.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Current Account Deficit Widens Slightly

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S&L government tax revenues driven by housing appreciation. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Current Account Deficit Widens Slightly

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S&L government tax revenues driven by housing appreciation. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Growth Stocks Oversold, or Still Wildly Overbought?

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The recent decline in highflying FANGs somewhat relieved an overbought condition, but did not alter broader technical, macro, and valuation indicators. We are looking for a tactical reentry point into Growth, but do not expect a repeat of the first five months of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Risk Layering and the World's Central Banks

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Risk layering is a critical, but underappreciated concept in explaining extreme outcomes in financial and other asset markets. All the major central banks took steps toward reducing monetary accommodation this month. Policy risks could be additive or even multiplicative. Perhaps the ECB will reduce its asset purchases by another EUR20 billion to EUR40 billion a month in 2018 for another six to nine months. The yield curve could continue to flatten.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Oil - What Is Real?

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Oil technicals are weak and sentiment is in the dumps. Fundamentals continue to lean positive, but are becoming cloudy. We outline what would move us to downgrade our oil view.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Demand vs. Supply Volume

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Up versus down volume trends remain bullish on the cyclical market trend, but it appears we have seen peak momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Consumer sentiment backtracks. Empire state services activity and outlook moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Consumer sentiment backtracks. Empire state services activity and outlook moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What to Watch Now That the Fed Raised Rates

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The Fed raised rates for the fourth time, but other evidence of a hostile Fed is missing.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

2H Outlook - Global Economy Still on Solid Footing

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Most global leading indicators and broad measures of economic activity suggest that global growth should remain on solid footing through the second half of the year, thereby achieving our 2017 growth forecast of 3.4%. But upside potential is limited, as some indicators have peaked, likely due to a closing of the output gap. Several global risks have abated, but not entirely.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

"Tech Wreck"or Rebound? Recovery Likely

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Valuations do not support case for ongoing Technology sector weakness. Indicators far less extreme than in 2000. Watch for uptrend to resume.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Second Half U.S. Sectors Outlook

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We provide an update on our three key themes and what to watch in the second half.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Industrial Production Flat

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Philly Fed factory activity still trending up. Empire manufacturing rebounds sharply. Builder confidence slips. Import price inflation softens. Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Flat

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Philly Fed factory activity still trending up. Empire manufacturing rebounds sharply. Builder confidence slips. Import price inflation softens. Jobless claims decline. Consumer comfort little changed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Playing the Current Inflation Regime

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Inflation and inflation expectations have been weakening of late. Government bonds, Utilities, and REITs are some of the more obvious plays. However, select emerging and European markets, as well as various Consumer-oriented areas in the U.S. also tend to outperform when inflation is weakening.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Fed Hikes Rates as it Prepares to Shrink Balance Sheet

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We reaffirm our call for a September rate hike. The Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet in Q4. The balance sheet won't normalize before 2021. Without fiscal stimulus, the Fed may be too optimistic on achieving its inflation objectives. The yield curve should continue to flatten.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Deconstructing Emerging Market ROE Trends

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Headline 2016 emerging market ROE figures remain a source of concern for investors. A DuPont analysis of country-level ROE suggest a more optimistic picture. China and Mexico stand out for favorable trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

CPI Inflation Continues to Soften

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Retail sales drop on weaker inflation and more cautious consumers. Business inventories decline. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CPI Inflation Continues to Soften

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Retail sales drop on weaker inflation and more cautious consumers. Business inventories decline. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Exploring Europe Via Dashboard

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The Europe Dashboard can help you identify both opportunities and risks within the region. It provides analysis of countries based upon macro, fundamental, sentiment, and technical data. Each card in the dashboard features a visually appealing aspect of NDR's weight-of-the-evidence approach, contains interactivity, and provides quick access to detailed information.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Q1 Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Asset allocation measures show most investors are pretty fully invested. Continued corporate buying is an offset.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Second Half U.S. Equity Outlook

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Correction risks increase in second half. Technicals say bull market intact. Raising S&P 500 yearend target to 2500

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Our 2H 2017 U.S. Growth Outlook - Measured Optimism

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Several composite leading indicators, soft data, and the strength of the labor market point to moderately faster growth in 2H 2017. We expect real GDP to increase 2.3% to 2.5% in 2017. Downside risks to the outlook include a debt limit standoff in the fall, increased economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical events.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Holds High

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CFO optimism also hot. Manpower employment outlook steady. PPI inflation eases, led by energy. Budget deficit widens. Weekly retail sales still soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Holds High

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CFO optimism also hot. Manpower employment outlook steady. PPI inflation eases, led by energy. Budget deficit widens. Weekly retail sales still soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

U.K., French Elections Mean Different Things to Bond Investors

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The increased uncertainty around Brexit should keep the Bank of England on hold. We look for further downward pressure on French sovereign spreads.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Should We Be Worried About Tech ETFs?

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Tech ETFs are overbought and overowned. New mean reversion sell signals are cause for concern. The immediate beneficiaries of sector rotation appear to be Financials and Energy, but we are not recommending these areas yet. Instead, we're recommending a tactical trade on VNQ, keeping a close eye on interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

OECD U.S. CLI Down A Notch

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Economic growth remains below its long-term average.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Down A Notch

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Economic growth remains below its long-term average.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Magic of Compound Interest is Key, but Starting Point Important

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The very long-term trend for stocks is upward. Yet, for someone who is 49 hoping to retire at 65, the end results, even for such a considerable period, vary greatly depending on the starting point.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Wholesale Inventories Drop

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Housing affordability under pressure from rising prices. K.C. Fed's labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Wholesale Inventories Drop

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Housing affordability under pressure from rising prices. K.C. Fed's labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q1 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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High levels of debt can present high risks, particularly, as the Fed raises interest rates.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Dovish Draghi and the Most Important Global Macro Chart

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The ECB changed its forward guidance, but only to a modest degree, suggesting that the monetary policy outlook remains dovish. We review our most important global macro chart of the summer and showcase a key report to watch to gauge the chart's outlook. We also summarize why eurozone inflation has remained stubbornly low.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Still the Reflation of 2017, Not the Deflation of 2007

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Gold strength, market breadth, earnings growth and other conditions suggest reflation theme intact. Resource sector earnings growth helping valuations. Valuations improving even as global benchmarks reach new highs.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - June 2017

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The good news is sector dispersion has returned. The bad news is identifying sector leadership remains difficult. 2017 is finally showing a leadership trend, mainly for Technology.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Consumer Comfort Down Slightly

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Jobless claims decline. Services revenues mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Comfort Down Slightly

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Jobless claims decline. Services revenues mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Playing the NDR Second Half Bond Outlook Through ETFs

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Our Macro team is overweight CMBS, investment-grade corporates, high yield, and TIPS. We go through our ETF picks to play each of these positions.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

The Fixed Income Outlook for the Rest of 2017

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We've backed off from building the bond bear case, but have not abandoned the thesis. We expect the curve to remain under pressure this summer. We will likely remain overweight credit for the remainder of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

CRE Conditions Improve

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Used vehicle wholesale prices surge. Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CRE Conditions Improve

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Used vehicle wholesale prices surge. Mortgage applications rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Past Instances of "Lower for Longer" Advances

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Recent Global Focus made the case for a "Lower for Longer" scenario where market could grind higher without a breadth thrust. Past bull market advances without a breadth thrust came in 1988-1990, 1992-1997, and 2005-2007. Large-cap stocks with strong momentum have fared well in past "Lower for Longer" environments. 5% decline would set the stage for breadth thrust, a more pronounced rally, and more aggressive leadership.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Corning Incorporated (GLW)

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Corning is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. GLW has a top decile price momentum ranking and favorable relative strength. The stock trades for under 8x trailing earnings and has rising analyst earnings expectations.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

May Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cyclical sentiment indicators suggest too much optimism, but with uncertainty and political unease.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

How High Quality Is the Earnings Rebound?

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EPS rebound showing few signs of deterioration seen before previous major peaks. Estimates for 2H17 biggest risk. High valuations leave market vulnerable if earnings growth slows substantially.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

European Currencies: Choose the Continent over Britain

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We are downgrading our view on the GBP/USD to neutral with a three- to six-month view. Our indicators continue to favor European currencies over the dollar. We prefer EUR/USD to GBP/USD with a three- to six-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

JOLTS: Surging Labor Demand Amid Skill Mismatches

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CEO economic optimism holds up. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

JOLTS: Surging Labor Demand Amid Skill Mismatches

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CEO economic optimism holds up. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What You Need to Know about the Sterling Aggregate

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The Conservatives have stressed fiscal responsibility, which has helped rapidly shrink the budget deficit and propel the U.K. bond market to the best local currency returns YTD and over the past 12 months. Gilts dominate the Sterling Aggregate. At Aa3, the Sterling Agg is not much of a credit risk, but does possess a high degree of interest rate risk.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Energy - The Worst Year Ever

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To date, 2017 has been the worst year on record for the Energy Sector. Sentiment is now at a pessimistic extreme. Yet, crude oil data continues to improve. We continue to see opportunities within the Energy Sector.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Pulls Back Slightly

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Q1 productivity revised up, but trend still depressed. Employment trends solid. Factory orders edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Pulls Back Slightly

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Q1 productivity revised up, but trend still depressed. Employment trends solid. Factory orders edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Should You Go International for Sector Exposure?

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International sector ETFs have outperformed their U.S. equivalents in all cases this year. Much of the outperformance can be traced to dollar weakness. Upon dollar strength, the tailwind would turn to a headwind. Clients can hedge their bets using global offerings.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Trend Evidence Leans Bullish, but Some Divergences

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but leadership somewhat narrow.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Little Wage Pressure Despite Tighter Labor Markets

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The continuing trend of tighter labor markets will keep the Fed on a normalization path later this month, and probably again in September, before it starts to shrink the balance sheet in Q4. Light vehicle sales slip again. Trade deficit widens. NYC services activity declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Little Wage Pressure Despite Tighter Labor Markets

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The continuing trend of tighter labor markets will keep the Fed on a normalization path later this month, and probably again in September, before it starts to shrink the balance sheet in Q4. Light vehicle sales slip again. Trade deficit widens. NYC services activity declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Pressing Pause on the Reflation Theme

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Lowering Industrials and Energy to marketweight, Telecom to underweight. Lifting Consumer Discretionary to marketweight and Utilities and Technology to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Taxes - Thoughts

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I am for tax reform, and I would personally like a tax cut! Nevertheless, I'm not sure how well the Laffer Curve works at these levels, and at this point in the economic cycle.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Expansion Intact, but EM/DM Divide Remains

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The global economic expansion continues to steady, albeit at elevated levels, according to the latest PMIs. At this point, we see no reason to be overly concerned about the outlook. Price pressure eased globally, but appear to be rising in the right areas. The developed world continued to take the lead in the global economy, while emerging markets, led by China, disappointed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

As Markets Churns Higher, Seven Reasons to Favor Large-Caps

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Stocks churning with upward bias. Seven reasons to favor large-caps over small-caps. Three risks for large-caps.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Three Allocation Scenarios

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Shifting 5% from cash to bonds, both underweight. Remaining 10% overweight in equities. Scenario probabilities - lower for longer 60%, thrust and bust 30%, summer stall 10%.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

More Evidence Of Stronger Q2 Growth

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A modest uptick in factory activity, broad-based ADP payroll gains, and higher consumer confidence suggest stronger output growth in Q2 than in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

More Evidence Of Stronger Q2 Growth

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A modest uptick in factory activity, broad-based ADP payroll gains, and higher consumer confidence suggest stronger output growth in Q2 than in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Time for a Dollar Comeback?

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Indicators are beginning to line up for renewed dollar strength. If the dollar resumes its secular run higher, expect a headwind for some of the popular international trades and a tailwind for Japan and Banks.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Long-Dated and European HY Securities Dominated in May

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Long-dated securities dominated returns in the U.S. last month, as bond prices rallied. European high yield was the big winner globally, thanks to a strong euro. The cash/assets ratio for government bond funds climbed to 8.4%, its highest since August 1989. Global bond managers bought a record $10.8 billion in excess of inflows in April.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Regional Indexes Show Mixed Factory Activity

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Pending home sales and weekly retail sales disappoint. But labor demand strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Regional Indexes Show Mixed Factory Activity

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Pending home sales and weekly retail sales disappoint. But labor demand strengthens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

My So--Called Sentiment Insight on Oil, Bonds, Gold, Stocks, Commodities, and the U.S. Dollar

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An update on sentiment in a number of investments, and when it might be useful.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Aetna Inc. (AET)

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Aetna Inc. is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. AET is at an all-time high, has improving price momentum, and favorable relative strength. Based upon forward earnings, the stock is trading at a discount to other Managed Health Care stocks.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Another Failed Attempt to Describe the Market as Cheap

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The S&P 500 is expensive on a sector-neutral basis. Sector breakdowns of constituents and earnings show Tech can not be singled out as the culprit. The biggest risk for the market is when earnings momentum slows.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Off Slightly

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Consumer spending and income up. State leading indexes suggest a modest pickup in growth. Existing home prices continue to ascend. Cass Freight volume rises. Texas manufacturing accelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Off Slightly

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Consumer spending and income up. State leading indexes suggest a modest pickup in growth. Existing home prices continue to ascend. Cass Freight volume rises. Texas manufacturing accelerates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CRE Remains Competitive, Staying the Course

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Investment grade CRE returns continued to slow in Q1. Nevertheless, property remains competitive with other asset classes. Non-investment grade properties continued to outperform.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Update - Taking Some Chips Off the Table

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Our model recommends reducing equity exposure from 100% to, a still overweight, 72%. Within equities, small-caps have been taken to zero while allocation has been upped to international funds. As such, the U.S. dollar will be a key indicator to watch this month.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

2017 Cycle Update -- Big Mo Tape -- 1972-1974 Watergate

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A look at the history of stock market trends, and impeachment news.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is Brazil Holding Back EM Bonds?

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EM bonds have been one of the best performing sectors this year. Nevertheless, we reaffirm our marketweight recommendation due to rich valuations, flailing oil prices, and fading relative performance.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Q1 GDP Revised Up, But Profits Sag

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Durable goods orders slip. Consumer sentiment still strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q1 GDP Revised Up, But Profits Sag

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Durable goods orders slip. Consumer sentiment still strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Rules--Based Fed Policy -- Should the Fed Raise Rates?

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Second quarter looks like a good economic rebound, and the Fed has met its unemployment and inflation targets, so it will likely raise rates. I present some cautious points.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Overvalued Markets? Overrated Concerns

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Earnings growth keeping valuations in check as markets advance. Watch median earnings yields of market indices and global sectors. Financials relatively cheap while defensive sectors relatively expensive, supporting positive outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Dispelling Discretionary Doubts

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Sentiment for Consumer Discretionary has turned positive in 2017. We take a look at our concerns for the Consumer Discretionary sector and consider where we may be overly pessimistic. We are considering shifting some sector allocation from Energy to Consumer Discretionary.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Jobless Claims Still Near Lowest Since 1973

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Consumer comfort improves. Advance goods trade deficit widens. Architecture billings decline. K.C. Fed activity up modestly, while outlook surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Jobless Claims Still Near Lowest Since 1973

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Consumer comfort improves. Advance goods trade deficit widens. Architecture billings decline. K.C. Fed activity up modestly, while outlook surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

China Indicator Update

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Momentum in Chinese equity markets remains strong. Valuations are a source of concern. The macro backdrop remains broadly constructive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Will ETF Liquidity Cause the Next Market Meltdown?

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ETFs have been at the corner of the passive vs. active debate. As products become more obscure and hold more assets, liquidity has become a major investor concern. However, we are much less concerned about the liquidity for three major reasons: ETFs are still small in comparison to their underlying markets, the larger ETFs have ample liquidity in the secondary market, and trading volume has tended to increase during market stress.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Fed on Track to Raise Rates in June and Shrink the Balance Sheet in Q4

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We reaffirm our call for a June rate hike. The Fed will limit the shrinkage of its balance sheet until it normalizes sometime in 2021. The yield curve should continue to flatten.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

One of the World's Largest Demographic Burdens in the Place You'd Least Expect It

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Brazil has a lot of good things going for it, including one of the best demographic outlooks in the world. Nonetheless, its public pensions are astronomically high and in line with those of the developed world. The latest corruption scandals vastly reduce the chance of any reform.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Slip Amid Tight Inventories

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Existing home prices continue to increase. But state coincident indexes show fewer states grew in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Slip Amid Tight Inventories

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Existing home prices continue to increase. But state coincident indexes show fewer states grew in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sentiment Update on Stocks Across Various Time Frames

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I look at stock sentiment -- short-term, intermediate, and long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Recommending Higher Interest Coverage and Earnings Growth Estimate Factors

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Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term EPS Growth Estimate. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline, Charles Schwab, Aetna, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Intel, Cisco.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

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Southwest Airlines Co. is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. LUV is at an all-time high with favorable price momentum ranking and relative strength. The stock trades at a discount to other Industrials companies (based on trailing earnings).

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

A Few Stocks Are Driving Returns. Happens Most Years.

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A small number of stocks account for most of the gains in the NDX 100 and S&P 500. That is common for cap-weighted indices. The lack of breadth thrusts amid falling correlations is a more worrisome development, but overall breadth remains positive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

What to Expect at Full Employment?

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The labor market can remain tight for a while without surging inflation. A tight labor market does not signal an imminent recession. Current wage growth and inflation trends support a gradual Fed tightening path. We expect another rate hike in June.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Markit Flash PMIs Show A Stronger Service Sector

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Richmond Fed factory activity slows, but services surge. New home sales decrease. Weekly retail sales remain tepid.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash PMIs Show A Stronger Service Sector

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Richmond Fed factory activity slows, but services surge. New home sales decrease. Weekly retail sales remain tepid.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing a New European Equities Fundamental Analysis Tool

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We have developed a new tool to examine European equity valuations. An approach combining sector and country valuations is particularly relevant for sectors such as Financials. Our new report highlights Swedish, French, and Spanish Financials as potentially attractive.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

The Most Important Global Macro Chart over the Next Three Months

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Core inflation in the eurozone is perhaps the most important global macro indicator this summer. The trend of global bond yields hinges on the ECB tapering decision. Markets remain skeptical that the ECB will hit its inflation target anytime soon. High real yields are one reason to reduce the allocation gap between the U.S. and other countries.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Oil - The Ideal Set-Up

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Since late February, crude oil sentiment has moved from an optimistic extreme to a pessimistic extreme. Despite pessimistic sentiment, oil fundamentals continue to improve.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Stronger Growth In Q2

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Inflation pressures remain limited.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Stronger Growth In Q2

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Inflation pressures remain limited.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Sexy Six and Narrowing Leadership

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Market being largely driven only by technology stocks. Generally, the broader the move, the healthier.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why the Reflation Trade Did Not Sustain - Debt, Demographics, and Productivity

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I think debt, demographics, and productivity explain a lot of the secular economic stagnation since 2000.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Upturn of Fear, and a Buying Opportunity

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VIX surge unlikely. Watch for volatility to recede as rallying resumes. Volatility can stay low for long periods, but watch for eventual bear market warning. If Trump impeachment process starts, consider volatility uptrends of past impeachments.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Some Pickup In Growth

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims reflect tighter labor market. But consumer economic optimism weakens. Equipment leasing and finance industry confidence also declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Some Pickup In Growth

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Philly Fed factory activity strengthens. Jobless claims reflect tighter labor market. But consumer economic optimism weakens. Equipment leasing and finance industry confidence also declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold ETF Strategy Recommendations

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We are closing positions in XLI and AMJ today due to relative weakness. We continue to recommend exposure to HEZU, SCIF, RYH, VDC, MTUM, and VIG for now.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Increasing Duration and Implementing Curve Flatteners

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We are increasing our bond exposure by 10% to 100% of benchmark duration. We are implementing curve flattener trades.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Sluggish RUST and a Mean Reversion Trap

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RUST continues to be a cautious marketweight for us. Retail REITs are an area to avoid with brick-and-mortar weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Is There a Connection between Volatility and Spreads?

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Trends in stock volatility have historically correlated with trends in credit spreads. Like stock volatility, bond volatility has also subsided. Trends in bond volatility also tend to correlate with trends in credit spreads.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Is It Time to Freak Out About China?

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Not yet... China's targeted measures to slow growth in certain parts of the economy appear to be working, without impeding broader consumer spending growth. Even so, this government-orchestrated slowdown suggests that if the reflation trade comes back, it likely won't be due to China.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Dover Corporation (DOV)

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Dover Corp. is on a long-term Focus Rank BUY rating. DOV has an elevated price momentum ranking and improving relative strength. Analyst sentiment is reversing higher off of 2016 lows.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Favoring Companies with Greater Interest Coverage

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions, Interest Coverage. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Michelin, Banco Santander, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Akzo Nobel. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Redrow, Standard Life, Relx, Spectric, IMI, Hays.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Extremely Low Fear Index - Does it Work? Also, Bonds Active Versus Passive

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Low levels on the VIX Index have, historically, not been generally consistent with bearish trends. However, short-term shifts in the VIX might be useful to traders.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Jumps

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But housing starts and permits decline. E-commerce continues to grab market share. Empire services grow at a modest pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Jumps

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But housing starts and permits decline. E-commerce continues to grab market share. Empire services grow at a modest pace.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Latin America Update: Downgrading Brazil, Upgrading Mexico

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We are tactically downgrading Brazilian equities from overweight to marketweight with a three-month view. We are upgrading Mexican equities from underweight to marketweight with a six to 12-month view. While our quantitative indicators paint a divergent picture, policy risks remain high in both countries.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Myth Busting Low Volatility and the Fed

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Volatility is historically low. History suggests that it can remain low as the Fed raises rates. Three out of four cases ultimately ended in cyclical bear markets. 1994-96 was the exception.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

New Lows Ahead in Canadian Spreads

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We expect Canadian bond spreads to continue to fall, hitting new lows relative to the U.S. Excessive reliance on the household sector is unsustainable. The Bank of Canada has no reason to change policy anytime soon.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Emerging Market Bond Funds in Focus

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Emerging Market bond ETFs are showing relative strength, especially local currency denominated funds. Macro factors such as credit spreads and the yield curve continue to support the trend.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Optimism Strengthens

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Empire manufacturing levels off.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Optimism Strengthens

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Empire manufacturing levels off.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Reflation Trade

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Eight measures of the so-called reflation trade are all below long-term trendlines.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Post A Modest Rebound

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CPI inflation remains limited. Consumer sentiment holds up. Business inventories increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Post A Modest Rebound

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CPI inflation remains limited. Consumer sentiment holds up. Business inventories increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Sluggish Growth, but Some Hopeful Signs on Investment

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First quarter growth was very poor, but there was a hopeful bounce in investment.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

What's Wrong with Homebuilding?

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Since early 2013, Homebuilding relative strength has been choppy just as the growth rate in new home sales has been choppy. We remain vigilant for signs of an acceleration in home sales but remain marketweight Homebuilding and Household Durables for now.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Upgrading Europe ex. U.K. to Overweight - Other Markets Need Energy

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Europe ex. U.K. upgraded from marketweight to overweight. Energy sector rebound would support global rally prospects. Canada and U.K. would stand to benefit.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

PPI Inflation Picks Up

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort pulls back. Housing opportunity up slightly. Federal government posts a typical budget surplus in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Picks Up

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Labor market indicators show continued tightening. Consumer comfort pulls back. Housing opportunity up slightly. Federal government posts a typical budget surplus in April.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

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