Recent Publications

Consumer Sentiment Declines

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This raises doubts of some emerging consumer cautiousness.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Declines

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This raises doubts of some emerging consumer cautiousness.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Fed Policy - What to Watch for Tipping Point

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We probably need 10-year T-Note yields around 2.7% and less liquidity before Fed policy turns hostile.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The New Communications Sector

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At the end of September 2018, GICS will create the new Communication Services sector, pulling companies from Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Telecommunication Services. The new sector should have nearly a 10% weight in the S&P 500 and become even larger than Consumer Discretionary. We take a closer look at planned changes.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Housing Starts Drop At Yearend, But Permits Hold Up Better

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Philly Fed manufacturing moderates slightly. Jobless claims plunge. Consumer comfort and economic optimism rise. Equipment finance and leasing confidence at a record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Housing Starts Drop At Yearend, But Permits Hold Up Better

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Philly Fed manufacturing moderates slightly. Jobless claims plunge. Consumer comfort and economic optimism rise. Equipment finance and leasing confidence at a record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

European Country/Industry Indicator Review

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Despite the rally, a number of European country/industry groups appear cheap relative to history. Currency strength does not appear to have muted the outlook for a range of industrial pairs. We continue to view EM exposure within European equities favorably.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

FX Trumps Bonds

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Although returns to unhedged dollar-based global bond investors were positive last year, returns to European-based global investors were negative.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

No Real Warning Signs Yet

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Our favorite global economic indicators continue to point to smooth sailing for the time being. Global sentiment trends confirm a continuation of positive economic activity and equity market performance.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

What's Missing From the Value Trade?

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Cyclical Value's strength is being masked by weakness in defensive Value. Broad Cyclicals over RUST is a better way to play the current macro environment.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Industrial Production Jumps At Yearend

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Builder confidence remains elevated. Mortgage applications up slightly. Empire services activity strengthens. But weekly retail sales pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Industrial Production Jumps At Yearend

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Builder confidence remains elevated. Mortgage applications up slightly. Empire services activity strengthens. But weekly retail sales pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Environment Still Favors Price Momentum Strategies

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No Factor Recommendation Changes this Month Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Christian Dior, Continental, Pernod Ricard, DnB, Novo Nordisk, Koninklijke Philips, Capgemini, Telenor Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Diageo, Relx, Ashtead Group, Rightmove Group, Rio Tinto

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Market Likes/Dislikes Economic Surprises; Backward or Forward, Market Not Cheap

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Stocks are more overvalued (relative to long-term norms) using forward rather than trailing earnings.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Pure ETFs to Play Growth or Value

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QQQ and SDY are good approximates of Growth and Value in the NDR ETF AA model. Lesser-known ETFs are purer plays on styles. For Growth, JKE, PWB, and RPG have the heaviest Growth tilts. For Value, PWV, FPV, and FTA are the most Value-oriented.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Taking Another Step Toward Declaring a Bond Bear

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We're reducing our bond exposure by another 5% to 90% of benchmark duration. Seeing both fundamental and technical deterioration. Further exposure reductions possible.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

OECD U.S. CLI Up Marginally

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Empire manufacturing activity moderates slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

OECD U.S. CLI Up Marginally

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Empire manufacturing activity moderates slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Global Bull Market Trends

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It is a good sign that stock markets around the world have confirmed the U.S. bull market.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Show Considerable Momentum

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CPI inflation remains under wraps. Business I/S ratio falls. Budget deficit widens slightly. Housing affordability remains in a downtrend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Show Considerable Momentum

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CPI inflation remains under wraps. Business I/S ratio falls. Budget deficit widens slightly. Housing affordability remains in a downtrend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Focused on the Watch Reports

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Rally Watch has reconfirmed sustainability of market advance, consistent with Top Watch and Bear Watch reports. Additional confirmation provided by risk-on and risk-off proxies, sector relative strength. Worsening outlook would be indicated by deteriorating watch report message and shift toward risk-off and defensive relative strength.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Fading Economic Growth Euphoria

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Economic growth fairly strong, but hurdles remain.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - January 2018

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Continue to own broad cyclical over RUST sectors while rates rise. Our Rising Rate and Tax Reform themes favor Financials and Industrials over Utilities and REITs.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Will This be the Source of Higher Inflation?

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Output gaps are expected to close in many parts of the developed world, which has historically resulted in higher inflation. We answer your questions on potential GDP and whether this time will be different.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

PPI Inflation Eases

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Consumer comfort jumps, even though jobless claims increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

PPI Inflation Eases

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Consumer comfort jumps, even though jobless claims increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

What Bond Investors Miss about the Tax Bill

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The corporate tax savings may end up going toward increased competitiveness and market share gains.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Import Price Inflation Remains Tame

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Wholesale inventories rebound. Freight activity strengthens. Mortgage applications increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Import Price Inflation Remains Tame

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Wholesale inventories rebound. Freight activity strengthens. Mortgage applications increase.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Active vs. Passive Update

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Several of our polls show more optimism now than at any time near the 2007 peak. Market returns show fairly big dispersions.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Strained Sentiment vs Terrific Technicals: 12 Charts to Watch

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The strong start to 2018 suggests another positive year for equities. The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is at a record high. We are watching for a reversal from extreme optimism combined with weakening breadth to turn less bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Economy Surprises on the Upside

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The Economic Surprise Index is near its highest level in six years, which means that positive economic momentum from 2017 could carry over into 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Does It Pay to Trade Credit?

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For most investors, it is difficult to outperform the investment grade corporate index. But when there is a significant move in credit or in high yield, credit investors have an opportunity to add value through trading.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Tapers Off

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JOLTS: Trend of tighter labor markets continues. Weekly retail sales mixed. Used vehicle prices moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Tapers Off

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JOLTS: Trend of tighter labor markets continues. Weekly retail sales mixed. Used vehicle prices moderate.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

China Indicator Update

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Our review of market and economic indicators on China is broadly constructive. Equity market moment remains strong. Valuations are less attractive than they ostensibly appear, but fundamentals have improved.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Oil & Energy - New Year's Resolutions

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Total petroleum inventories are now below the five-year average. We remain oil and energy bulls. But, in the short-term, excessive optimism and overbought conditions make the energy complex vulnerable to a pullback.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Pot of Gold?

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The launch of recreational marijuana sales in California and a move towards legalization in Canada have lit a fire under marijuana-related equities. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJX), which made its debut on December 26th, is up 25% in its first 8 trading days.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Strengthen

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The ETI and state leading indexes suggest stronger economic growth momentum from 2017 will carry into early 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Strengthen

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The ETI and state leading indexes suggest stronger economic growth momentum from 2017 will carry into early 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Stocks, Bonds, Gold - All Still Bullish Based Upon Moving Averages

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Stocks in bullish uptrend, gold mildly so, and bonds mixed to barely bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Employment Ends 2017 On A Softer Note

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Job creation unexpectedly slowed in December, while the unemployment rate held steady. This report should nonetheless keep the Fed firmly on its path of policy normalization in 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Employment Ends 2017 On A Softer Note

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Job creation unexpectedly slowed in December, while the unemployment rate held steady. This report should nonetheless keep the Fed firmly on its path of policy normalization in 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Animal Spirits Lead to Fairly Solid 2017

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Economic outlook brightens and still mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why We Remain Constructive on the Euro... and Two Ways to Hedge European Risk

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We remain constructive on EUR/USD. Currency and macro indicators remain favorable on the Eurozone. Bears on European risk could consider currency options and our Italian banks trade.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

ADP Payrolls Strengthen At Yearend

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Layoffs remain low in tight labor market. Light vehicle sales finish 2017 strong. Markit U.S. services PMI moderates. Consumer comfort off slightly, but trend still up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ADP Payrolls Strengthen At Yearend

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Layoffs remain low in tight labor market. Light vehicle sales finish 2017 strong. Markit U.S. services PMI moderates. Consumer comfort off slightly, but trend still up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

The Bullish Case For Consumer Discretionary

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Better retail sales trends cause us to upgrade Multiline Retailing to marketweight and we may soon close our Consumer Discretionary underweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Key U.S. Fixed Income Charts to Watch in 2018

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We highlight four key charts for U.S. investors.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Near Strongest Since 2004

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Construction spending up. Online labor demand strengthens. NYC services activity outlook surges. Despite cold weather, retail sales on track for a strong year. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Near Strongest Since 2004

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Construction spending up. Online labor demand strengthens. NYC services activity outlook surges. Despite cold weather, retail sales on track for a strong year. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

After Record for Records and Rare Lack of Pullbacks, Expect a More Normal '18

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Abnormally high number of record highs and lack of weakness defined 2017. All year we were overweight equities, underweight bonds, overweight emerging markets, bearish on U.S. dollar and bullish on gold. While more normal market action likely, stay with positions for now.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

December Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Institutions' equity holdings 10 percentage points above the 40-year mean. Record price/sales and margin debt.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Ending 2017 With a Boom, But is There More to go?

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The latest global PMIs ended 2017 on the strongest note in nearly seven years. Several forward-looking indicators point to an even faster expansion in the coming months. Led by Europe, developed economies continued to take the lead in this broad-based expansion.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

2017 Benchmark Review: Low Vol, Trump, and Bitcoin

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The S&P 500 rose every month for the first time in history. The advance was global in scope, with 11/12 asset class benchmarks, 42/44 countries, 9/11 sectors, and all nine style boxes posting gains. Emerging markets, large-caps and Growth sectors outperformed.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

ETF AA Model Update - Shifting Some Exposure from Growth to Value

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Our ETF AA Model recommends 86% equity exposure, consistent with last month. Reducing exposure to Growth/Tech, lifting exposure to value-oriented, rate-sensitives. The top allocations are to SPY and SDY.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI Climbs

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It shows factory activity strengthened at yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI Climbs

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It shows factory activity strengthened at yearend.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Key Global Fixed Income Charts to Watch in 2018

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We highlight four key charts for global investors.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Don't Fight the Tape or the Fed

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Tape plus Fed (monetary conditions) still lean bullish for now.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Downside Risks

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Some pickup in inflationary pressures and watching China.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Is Global Debt Falling?

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Debt-to-GDP ratios are falling among many of the world's economies, partly due to strong economic growth. Debt levels, however, remain much more elevated now than in the past, likely weighing on long-term economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Finishing the Year on a Mixed Note

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Also, goods deficit widens, claims remain low, and consumer comfort up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Finishing the Year on a Mixed Note

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Also, goods deficit widens, claims remain low, and consumer comfort up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

The Five Best U.S. Fixed Income Publications of 2017

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I present my top U.S. pubs of this past year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Consumer Confidence Moderates Slightly

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State coincident indexes show low risk of recession. Pending home sales edge up. CRE conditions continue to improve. Texas services activity remains strong. Retail sales on track for a strong holiday season.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Consumer Confidence Moderates Slightly

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State coincident indexes show low risk of recession. Pending home sales edge up. CRE conditions continue to improve. Texas services activity remains strong. Retail sales on track for a strong holiday season.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Focus on Earnings Revisions as Market and Earnings Environments Mature

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Factor Changes: Replacing Long-Term Sales Growth with Earnings Revisions. Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Earnings Revisions. Selected Stocks Include: Berkshire Hathaway, American Express, Eli Lilly, Biogen, Southwest Airlines, Apple, Intel, Visa, Oracle, Mastercard.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Valuation and Sentiment Thoughts

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Market looks overvalued even based upon next year's earnings. Skepticism among Democrats may keep sentiment from euphoria.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Existing Home Prices Continue to Climb

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Regional manufacturing indexes show activity trends up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Prices Continue to Climb

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Regional manufacturing indexes show activity trends up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Analysts' Price Targets Imply Pessimism

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The market tends to rally when a high percentage of stocks trade above their price targets.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Stop-Losses for Our Tactical Calls

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Rather than focusing in on specific stop-loss levels, we prefer to weigh the indicator evidence. Currently, we are very comfortable with our recommendations on MTUM and PSI. We're less comfortable with IXC, as conditions may be in place for a correction in oil. RYH has been falling in our relative rankings, so we are giving that a short leash as well.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

It Has Been a Good Year for Making the Trend Your Friend

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It's a bull market trend until proven otherwise.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The Five Best Global Fixed Income Publications of 2017

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I present my top global pubs of this past year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

New Home Sales Surge

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Consumer spending outpaces income. Consumer sentiment off slightly, but trend still up. Durable goods orders strengthen. K.C. Fed manufacturing moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

New Home Sales Surge

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Consumer spending outpaces income. Consumer sentiment off slightly, but trend still up. Durable goods orders strengthen. K.C. Fed manufacturing moderates.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Output Gap - Fake News or Key Chart for 2018

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The output gap has closed, and the economy should be above potential at the end of 2017.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Bitcoin or Gold? Go with the Metal

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Beware of bitcoin and comparisons to gold. Gold is a sound and stable alternative to fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies alike. Gold Watch report describes improving outlook for the metal.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Q3 GDP Revised Slightly Down, But Momentum Keeps Strong

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Leading economic indicators strengthen. Philly Fed activity and outlook pick up. Existing home prices continue to rise. Jobless claims spike, but trend still low. Consumer comfort off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q3 GDP Revised Slightly Down, But Momentum Keeps Strong

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Leading economic indicators strengthen. Philly Fed activity and outlook pick up. Existing home prices continue to rise. Jobless claims spike, but trend still low. Consumer comfort off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Notes from Moscow

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The outlook for Russian equities is improving. An acceleration in CBR rate cuts could be a positive shock to markets. Look to indicators and clarity on sanctions for upgrade triggers.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Why I'm Skeptical about the Future of Bitcoin

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Increased competition, government intervention, failure to meet the characteristics of money, and concentration of ownership are some of the reasons to worry about the long-term viability of bitcoin.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Homebuilding Euphoria

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With the NAHB Housing Market Index above 70 and the Homebuilding sub-industry above 2.2 times price-to-book, we have entered Homebuilding euphoria. We need more signs that positive sentiment is reversing though before getting more bearish.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Will Anti-Pollution Measures Derail Chinese Economic Growth?

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There is a strong relationship between air quality and Chinese industrial production growth. We suspect that China will resume its environmental measures to cut contamination, which would translate into slightly slower real GDP growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Existing Home Sales Soar

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Also, architecture billings strong. Mortgage apps drop. Freight indicators show strong domestic demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Existing Home Sales Soar

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Also, architecture billings strong. Mortgage apps drop. Freight indicators show strong domestic demand.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

How Much of the Tax Cut Is Priced In?

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A rough estimate shows about 50% of tax cuts priced into the S&P 500. Investors have differentiated between high and low tax stocks within large-caps more than within small-caps. We are upgrading small-caps to overweight on a tactical basis.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Favor Price Momentum Following Strong Earnings Growth Environment

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No Factor Recommendation Changes this Month Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Christian Dior, Continental, Pernod Ricard, DnB, ABB Limited, SAP, Capgemini Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Diageo, Relx, Intl Consolidated Airline, Rio Tinto, Mondi

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Some Signs of Speculation Including Bitcoins

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There are some signs that speculation is high.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Continue to Trend Up

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Current account deficit shrinks. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Continue to Trend Up

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Current account deficit shrinks. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Internal Machinations and Fed Policy

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The 5-year note yield is on the cusp of breaking out. Curve movements are showing up in our models. We explain why we have a hawkish Fed bias for 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Oil: Bearish Setup to Begin 2018?

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Oil enters 2018 in a similarly precarious position to early 2017. While a short-term correction is likely, we do not expect a replay of last year.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Upgrading South Africa to Marketweight

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This weekend's ANC election result will likely reduce perceptions of political risk in the country. Currency momentum has improved, but valuations remain a concern. A further upgrade would be contingent on improved technicals and confirmation of a political shift.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Builder Confidence Highest Since 1999

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Empire services business climate improves. Equipment leasing and finance confidence continues to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Builder Confidence Highest Since 1999

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Empire services business climate improves. Equipment leasing and finance confidence continues to rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is Santa Going to Run Out of Fuel?

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Broad market sentiment barometers suggest that there is plenty of optimism on domestic equities. The optimistic mood is broad based across equity funds. Tech and Industrials stand out as areas where investors as most optimistic. While we expect gains to moderate until optimism recedes, we would continue to treat any pessimistic condition as a buying opportunity.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Trend Evidence Leans Bullish

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Trend evidence continues bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Strengthens

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Empire manufacturing holds strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Industrial Production Strengthens

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Empire manufacturing holds strong.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q3 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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Debt is very high throughout the economy, and savings are low. While very low interest rates are an offset, they are starting to rise. Thus, debt may again become a problem.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industry Growth Concerns for 2018

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We looked for industries that were overbought and expected to see earnings growth slow in 2018. Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components and Capital Markets industries topped our "watch out" list. Airlines and Trading Companies & Distributors topped our "potential opportunity" list, as they are expected to see accelerating earnings growth in 2018 and are oversold.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Watching Tech and Financials - Will Either Diverge in 2018?

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Tech trend, fundamentals and breadth all bullish, but valuation worsening. Financials more a market performer, but best valued sector. Beware if either diverges - Tech more likely to do so.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Retail Sales Jump

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Markit flash PMIs show diverging growth trends. Import prices advance, led by fuel. Jobless claims decline again. Consumer comfort trends up, optimism about economy rises.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Retail Sales Jump

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Markit flash PMIs show diverging growth trends. Import prices advance, led by fuel. Jobless claims decline again. Consumer comfort trends up, optimism about economy rises.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

2018 ETF Selection Strategy Outlook

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Economic disappointment and decreased global market breadth would be met with a decreased equity weighting in our major ETF Asset Allocation Model. Low volatility and Utilities may not be outperformers on a rate-driven correction, but Consumer Staples could be a good place to hide. Sentiment on the Financials is extremely optimistic setting the sector up for disappointment on an earnings-driven correction. Emerging markets could continue to perform well in a continuation of the relatively low volatility bull market but are broadly overbought. The same can be said for Tech and the momentum trade.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

More Signs of Strong Growth in the Coming Months

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Global economic and sentiment indicators continue to give no warning sign that the cycle is ending anytime soon.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Positioning for More Rate Hikes

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We expect three Fed rate hikes in 2018 with an upside risk of four. Average money fund maturity is the shortest since Q1 1989.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Core CPI Inflation Remains Weak

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CFO optimism charges higher. Budget deficit widens. Freight activity strengthens. Mortgage applications off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Core CPI Inflation Remains Weak

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CFO optimism charges higher. Budget deficit widens. Freight activity strengthens. Mortgage applications off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q3 Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Federal Reserve data on asset allocation shows most investors are fairly fully invested. However, corporate cash is high, so further buybacks are likely.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Soars

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PPI inflation picks up. Manpower employment outlook strengthens. Commercial construction backlog surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Soars

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PPI inflation picks up. Manpower employment outlook strengthens. Commercial construction backlog surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

If 2018 Goes Awry, This Chart Could Explain Why

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Earnings growth acceleration may be difficult in 2018, even if taxes are cut.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Inflation Indicators Flashing Red While Risk Premium Remains Negative

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All of the inflation indicators in our Bond Bear Watch Report are flashing red. Yet, the inflation risk premium remains in negative territory. Demanding a higher inflation risk premium will result in higher bond yields.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

One Chart to Summarize "Fee Wars" & Frontier Markets Keep Climbing

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Fee wars are playing a large role in the active to passive trend. IVV and SPY each track the S&P 500, but IVV has taken in much more in assets over the past 52 weeks. The major difference between the funds is five basis points in fees. Also, Frontier Markets are outperforming other international areas like Europe and Emerging Markets. Frontier Markets have very little correlation to other asset classes.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Steady

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JOLTS show more hires and tighter conditions. OECD U.S. CLI points to stable growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Steady

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JOLTS show more hires and tighter conditions. OECD U.S. CLI points to stable growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Melt-Up Update

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Trend evidence remains bullish, but the DJIA finally reached a potential target for a blow-off from selected bull markets.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Comparing Bitcoin to Past Bubbles

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The Great Silver Spike of 1980 is the only historical bubble that rivals the current price action in Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't appear to be correlated with other assets. Eventual bursting of Bitcoin bubble shouldn't impact traditional risk assets.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Labor Markets Tighten Further, But Wages Still Subdued

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Labor markets continued to tighten in November, with a solid nonfarm payrolls gain and the lowest unemployment rate in 17 years. This report should cement the 25 bp hike in the fed funds target rate next week.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Labor Markets Tighten Further, But Wages Still Subdued

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Labor markets continued to tighten in November, with a solid nonfarm payrolls gain and the lowest unemployment rate in 17 years. This report should cement the 25 bp hike in the fed funds target rate next week.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Are High P/C Ratios Bullish for Bonds?

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High P/C ratios are negative for bonds, on balance.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Profits Charts

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Profits continue to rise, but may not be as robust as many believe.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Layoffs Remain Low

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Consumer comfort up. Services revenues moderate slightly. Used vehicle prices normalize.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Layoffs Remain Low

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Consumer comfort up. Services revenues moderate slightly. Used vehicle prices normalize.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

2018 U.S. Outlook

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Our S&P 500 target is 2830, or 7.6% above current levels. We expect economic growth (2.9%) and inflation (2.4%) to accelerate, partly as a result of tax reform. Risks include decelerating EPS growth (ex-tax cuts), higher bond yields, and a less friendly Fed. Watch for a rotation into cyclical Value sectors such as Energy and Financials.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

International Equities are "Falling from the Sky"

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Broad international and emerging market funds are showing relative weakness of late. Hedged Japan may be a good area to consider as a year-end trade, especially if the broad market rallies.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

ADP Payrolls Post Another Solid Gain

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Online labor demand strengthens. Business Roundtable shows growing business optimism. Productivity growth steady, while unit labor costs drop.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ADP Payrolls Post Another Solid Gain

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Online labor demand strengthens. Business Roundtable shows growing business optimism. Productivity growth steady, while unit labor costs drop.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

November Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Cyclical sentiment/valuation shows extraordinary risks, offset somewhat by partisan conflict anger.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Softens Slightly

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Trade deficit widens. But state leading indexes show improving growth outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Softens Slightly

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Trade deficit widens. But state leading indexes show improving growth outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

It Doesn't Get Much Better Than This!

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The global manufacturing PMI climbed to its highest level in nearly seven years, while our breadth measures show some of the broadest trends in a decade. Developed economies outpaced the emerging world, with developed Europe taking the lead.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Looking for December Trade Opportunities

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Some of the strongest drivers of stock returns in December have tended to be short-term mean reversion within longer-term uptrends, certain quality metrics, and high long-term EPS growth expectations. Applied to ETFs, Tech-specific and momentum-oriented funds stand out. The recent tax reform rotation may provide a good buying opportunity into Tech. We are adding PSI, a semiconductors fund, to our recommended tactical trades.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

2018 Global Outlook

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We present our expectations for 2018. Our views on global equities and asset allocation, currencies, gold, energy, global fixed income, and global economics.

Ned Davis Research | Global Featured Report | Mixed

Factory Orders Off Slightly

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Light vehicle sales remain healthy. NYC services activity picks up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Factory Orders Off Slightly

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Light vehicle sales remain healthy. NYC services activity picks up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Daily AD Line - Leading at Market Peaks

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Big Mo Tape below peak levels, but trend evidence still leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Manufacturing Off Slightly, But Growth Still Solid

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Construction spending up, led by public sector. CRE sentiment improves slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Off Slightly, But Growth Still Solid

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Construction spending up, led by public sector. CRE sentiment improves slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Hard Data Follows Soft

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Animal spirits lead and drive hard economic data.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Personal Income and Spending Continue to Rise

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Regionals moderate slightly, but growth still robust. Jobless claims hold low. Consumer comfort trends up. Beige Book shows continued growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income and Spending Continue to Rise

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Regionals moderate slightly, but growth still robust. Jobless claims hold low. Consumer comfort trends up. Beige Book shows continued growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Rotation from Tech to Financials & Our New Technical Snapshot

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Yesterday's big divergence between XLK and XLF was not that uncommon. However, divergences have clustered around the Tech bubble, Financial Crisis, and now the past year. Given the extremes of the Tech bubble and Financial Crisis, its difficult to extrapolate future performance following big Tech/Financials divergences. The last case was a great buying opportunity into Tech.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Biotech Bummer

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Very high and improving net profit margins keep us overweight on Biotech, though slower sales growth is a watchout. High margins for Biotech are not only attracting the attention of investors, but also the attention of Donald Trump, who may sign an executive order attempting to curb drug price increases. If relative strength breaks below the May 2017 low, we will have to conclude that Biotech's major correction that started in July 2015 is not yet over, and downgrade the industry.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Decomposing the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Five Reasons Why the Term Premium is so Low

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The 10-year Treasury yield can be decomposed into expected inflation, the expected path of real short-term rates, and the term premium. Led by a reduced inflation risk premium, we provide five reasons why the term premium is low. A sudden normalizing of the term premium presents a risk for bond investors.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Q3 GDP Revised Up, Profits Strengthen

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Pending home sales rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q3 GDP Revised Up, Profits Strengthen

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Pending home sales rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

DAVIS265 Argues Optimistic Sentiment Is Not Deep

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Investors fairly fully invested with low cash reserves, but nagging indicators do not confirm negative outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Factor Selection for a Flattening Yield Curve

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Flattening Yield Curve Favors Growth Metrics like Long-Term Sales Growth Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term Sales Growth Selected Stocks Include: Home Depot, Priceline Group, American Express, UnitedHealth Group, Amgen, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Visa

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Expect a Cyclical Boost to Growth From Tax Cuts

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We estimate a 0.1% to 0.9% boost to total GDP in 2018 and 2019 from tax reform. Business tax reform will spur capex and productivity growth. Individual income tax reform will provide a temporary boost to consumer spending. But since the output and unemployment gaps have been effectively eliminated, the fiscal stimulus package will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will negate some of its positive impact.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Consumer Confidence Highest In 17 Years

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Regional activity indexes strengthen. Freight activity picks up. Advance goods trade deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Consumer Confidence Highest In 17 Years

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Existing home prices continue to rise. Regional activity indexes strengthen. Freight activity picks up. Advance goods trade deficit widens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Energy Equities - Green Shoots?

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After a year of damage, our main technical model is showing signs of improvement in the most oil sensitive equity groups.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

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