Recent Publications

Markit Flash PMIs Suggest Softer Growth

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Durable goods orders mixed. K.C. Fed manufacturing surges.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Why Has the Hard Data Not Followed Soft Data?

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Hard data usually follows the soft survey data, but I think we will only see a moderate growth uptick.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Carnage or Correction? Expect a Single-Digit Sell-Off

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Sell-off indicated by sentiment, breadth, composites, and risk-on / risk-off proxies. Single-digit correction more likely than bigger decline.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

New Home Sales Upward Trend Strengthens

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Consumer comfort continues to rise. Jobless claims edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

New Home Sales Upward Trend Strengthens

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Consumer comfort continues to rise. Jobless claims edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold ETF Strategy Recommendations

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DXJ is the only fund on our list that we would sell at this time. Funds that we feel comfortable accumulating more of are VIG, MTUM, and VDC.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Six Telling Sector Trends

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We see six sector relative strength trends approaching key support/resistance levels that, when tested, should help clarify what sector leadership should look like for 2017. Health Care and Technology are on the move up, testing resistance lines while Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Industrials are testing support.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

MBS Starting to Seriously Underperform

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Spread measures have widened. We reaffirm our underweight recommendation on agency MBS.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Which Countries Would Be Hurt Most by U.S. Protectionism?

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We discuss the potential impact of U.S. protectionism on its trading partners, examining countries' export exposure to the U.S. and elasticity estimates of import price and import- product substitution. Assuming broad-based protectionism, we suspect that Mexico and large portions of emerging Asia (namely southeast Asia) would be the most negatively impacted. Given the sheer size of their exposure to the U.S., Canada and Ireland would also be adversely affected. But if the Administration chooses to impose large tariffs selectively, as has been suggested, some countries could hypothetically benefit from protectionism.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Introducing a New International Equity Indicator

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We have developed a new, common currency ACWI Scorecard. The new USD ACWI Scorecard framework allows international investors to compare relative momentum and valuation in a common currency framework. Emerging Markets continue to screen well in the USD ACWI Scorecard.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Sanguine on Spain

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We would overweight Spanish equities relative to European peers with a six to 12 month view. Both technical and valuation indicators paint a favorable picture for Spanish equities. Spain's real economy continues to recover, confirming bullish market indicators.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Existing Home Sales Retreat, But Upward Trend Intact

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Mortgage applications edge down. Architecture billings outlook brightens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Retreat, But Upward Trend Intact

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Mortgage applications edge down. Architecture billings outlook brightens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

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Gilead Sciences is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Rank. GILD is more than one standard deviation oversold with pessimistic sentiment. The stock is trading for under 10x trailing and forward earnings.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Continuing to Favor the Earnings Revisions Strategy

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: LVMH Moet Hennessy, Repsol, Banco Santander, Sanofi, Siemens, Linde. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: WPI, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Intertek Group, Smiths Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

The Passive Investing Bubble

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Passive investing looks to be overdone to me.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why Are Price/Earnings Ratios So Different?

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Our median P/E is higher than widely followed aggregate P/Es due to cheap mega-caps. That does not mean that small-caps are significantly more expensive than large-caps.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Current Account Deficit Narrows

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Freight activity strengthens. But weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Current Account Deficit Narrows

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Freight activity strengthens. But weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing the Fair Value Models for Germany, Japan, and the U.K.

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We introduce three new three-factor models for 10-year securities. Models driven by core inflation, expected monetary policy, and relative global competition.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

A Smart Beta Trend I'm Watching Carefully & a New Trade On India

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The ratio of high beta to high quality has been making year-to-date lows. We want to see the relationship reverse as a sign that cyclical Value is reasserting leadership. India equity funds are showing momentum. We are recommending a trade on SCIF to play the relative strength.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

CFNAI Shows Broad-Based Growth

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The CFNAI rebounded in February, indicating economic activity strengthened notably from the start of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Shows Broad-Based Growth

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The CFNAI rebounded in February, indicating economic activity strengthened notably from the start of the year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Good and Bad News on Trend Data

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Cyclical trend evidence still leans bullish, despite some divergences.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Industrial Production Flat, But Manufacturing Shines

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LEI up nicely, pointing to stronger growth ahead. Consumer sentiment picks up. Labor market indexes show sustained strength. Housing affordability steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Flat, But Manufacturing Shines

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LEI up nicely, pointing to stronger growth ahead. Consumer sentiment picks up. Labor market indexes show sustained strength. Housing affordability steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Debt Update

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Global debt at records on both an absolute and relative to GDP basis. These debt loads add to risks should interest rates normalize.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Housing Starts Rise, Led By Single-Family

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Philly Fed regional activity continues to expand. More signs of stronger labor demand and a tighter jobs market. Consumer economic expectations rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts Rise, Led By Single-Family

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Philly Fed regional activity continues to expand. More signs of stronger labor demand and a tighter jobs market. Consumer economic expectations rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Taking the Top-Down to the ETF Level

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We condense a presentation that we gave last week which broadly covers the logic behind our current ETF Strategy. Many indicators have led us to implement some short-term trades within longer-term bullish trends.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Is Health Care Signaling Trouble for the Trump Rally?

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If Republicans cannot pass the American Health Care Act and the Trump rally reverses, we see the most downside for Industrials and Materials and the most upside for Health Care.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Global Outlook Remains Robust

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We take a broad look at some of our favorite global economic and sentiment indicators, which continue to confirm a healthy economic environment. We don't see the recent surge in sentiment as being an overly bearish signal for markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

What Happens to Bonds after a Third Fed Rate Hike?

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FOMC raised rates for the third time, and is leaning toward three rate hikes in 2017. T-Bond and Eurodollar futures prices have tended to fall and the yield curve to flatten in the months following a third Fed rate hike. High yield spreads have tended to tighten short-term but have widened long-term.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

Correction Camp Growing Crowded

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Several indicators suggesting that bulls are growing increasingly nervous. Combination of a strong market and cautious sentiment make chances of a double-digit correction over the next month low.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

Another Day of Soft/Hard Data Divide

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While sentiment reports, including business and builder confidence (soft data), were very strong today, hard data continued to lag. Retail sales were up only modestly, although the y/y momentum strengthened. Inflation pressures continued to build. As a result, the GDPNow Model is currently tracking a soft 0.9% real GDP growth in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Another Day of Soft/Hard Data Divide

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While sentiment reports, including business and builder confidence (soft data), were very strong today, hard data continued to lag. Retail sales were up only modestly, although the y/y momentum strengthened. Inflation pressures continued to build. As a result, the GDPNow Model is currently tracking a soft 0.9% real GDP growth in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

India: Upgrading to Marketweight

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We are upgrading Indian equities to marketweight relative to the MSCI EM Index with a three-month view. Recent electoral victories by the BJP were significant, and yesterday's market response strong. We remain skeptical on Modi mania and would look for a breakdown in momentum to reinitiate an underweight position.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Uncovering Reversion Opportunities

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NDR Explorer contains charts and reports showing mean reversion potential for countries, sectors, ETFs, and individual stocks. The ETF and Stock Screeners offer numerous mean reversion metrics that can be combined with other factors. The Mean Reversion Analysis tool allows users to create a customized mean reversion chart for an Equity Index, Sector or Industry, Individual Stock or ETF, Fixed Income Index, Commodity, Currency, Economic Series, or an index created from a personal ticker list.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Corning Incorporated (GLW)

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Corning Inc. is on a BUY rating for the long-term Focus Ranks. GLW has a top decile price momentum ranking and top quartile valuation and profitability rankings. The stock has favorable relative strength compared to the broad market, IT sector, and its industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Q4 Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Fed Financial account indicators show most investors are fully invested, with corporate buying an offset.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

The Closest Historical Analogies for Current Tightening Cycle

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Slow pace of hikes unique but not unprecedented. We compare current case to 1946 and 1963 tightening cycles. Inflation and interest rates key to avoiding bearish slow-cycle tendencies.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Staying the Course in Commercial Real Estate

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We think there is more to go before the CRE cycle peaks, despite several challenges. Property remains competitive with other asset classes. What really kills CRE are deteriorating financial conditions, overdevelopment, and recessions. None of these factors are currently pressing problems for CRE. Industry fundamentals remain favorable.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

American Infrastructure Gets Another D+ (Poor, At Risk)

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National infrastructure remains in dire need of repairs. Investment spending could boost productivity growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

PPI Inflation Strengthens

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NFIB small business optimism eases slightly. Manpower employment outlook picks up. Construction backlog shortens. Weekly retail sales continue to languish.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Strengthens

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NFIB small business optimism eases slightly. Manpower employment outlook picks up. Construction backlog shortens. Weekly retail sales continue to languish.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

ECB Prepares for Tapering

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Look for the ECB to begin reducing its support for the European bond market later this year. The peripheral European debt trade has lost support and momentum.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Where's the Volatility?

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Our calculation of average daily volatility implies that the majority of ETFs have been exhibiting extremely low volatility of late, underscoring the broad complacency. Many international funds have had the lowest volatility compared to their historical average as well as some equity funds from the commodity complex.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Small business optimism surges. Federal budget deficit set to widen.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Strengthen

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Small business optimism surges. Federal budget deficit set to widen.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

GBP/USD: Sell into the Rally

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Our technically-driven indicators are slightly positive on the GBP/USD. As Britain prepares to trigger Article 50, political and policy risks remain high. We would see near-term strength in GBP/USD as a selling opportunity with a six to 12-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Oil: Is it Time to Panic?

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Last week's EIA report created a mini-panic from overextended speculators (+7% correction). Beneath the headline crude oil build, the EIA report was actually mixed to bullish. We update our oil position.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Is the Market About to Stumble?

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Interest rates are rising, which is a concern, but from low levels, and trend evidence leans bullish. Neutral strategy.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Solid Employment Report Paves Way for Fed Rate Hike

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This report meets the FOMC criteria that employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with their expectations. Look for a 25 bp rise next week and three rate hikes this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Solid Employment Report Paves Way for Fed Rate Hike

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This report meets the FOMC criteria that employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with their expectations. Look for a 25 bp rise next week and three rate hikes this year.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Remaining Overweight Korea

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We see recent political news in Korea as favorable for markets, on balance. Equity market momentum remains strong, while valuations are undemanding. We remain overweight MSCI Korea with a six to 12 month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

The Chicken or the Egg?

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Time for the quarterly debt/savings update. Are savings/debt really important in terms of National Income?

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Trump Trades Update

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We provide an update to the ETF trades we discussed last November. We add SDY as a way to play corporate tax reform. We also note Retail ETFs which could suffer if the border adjustment tax passes.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Expect Resurgent Volatility

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Volatility likely to rise as market corrects -- across global markets and asset classes. U.S., Emerging Markets and Technology have had lowest relative volatility. Volatility of Japan, Europe ex. U.K. and Utilities has been less extreme.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Import Price Inflation Rises

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Layoffs continue to trend down. Consumer comfort highest since 2007. Services revenues pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Import Price Inflation Rises

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Layoffs continue to trend down. Consumer comfort highest since 2007. Services revenues pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Monthly Sector Update - March 2017

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Utilities upgraded to overweight on strong sector model readings and concerns over market correction. Consumer Discretionary downgraded to underweight on poor macro readings in the model. Health Care weight moved up a point on stronger internal reading. Consumer Staples weight moved down a point on weakest external reading of all sectors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

1-2-3-4 Do We Know How Many More?

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It appears that the FOMC is preparing for three rate hikes this year.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Uncertainty Dominating European Outlook

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Despite increased signs of economic improvement, the political landscape in Europe continues to create uncertainty and dominate the outlook. Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes for most European countries are soaring, helping explain some of the weakness in the euro. We provide an updated outline of the political events afflicting Europe, highlighting where we see the biggest risks.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

ADP Private Payrolls Hit Out of the Ballpark...

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...But online job ads plunge. Nonfarm productivity steady. Wholesale inventories decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Why We Remain Constructive on Chinese Equities

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MSCI China equity market momentum remains resilient. While ostensibly cheap, valuations are not overly so. Macro data and currency spreads provide a benign backdrop to Chinese equities.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

ADP Private Payrolls Hit Out of the Ballpark...

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...But online job ads plunge. Nonfarm productivity steady. Wholesale inventories decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Kohl's Corporation (KSS)

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Kohl's Corp. is on a BUY rating across all three Focus Ranks. KSS is more than one standard deviation oversold and its sentiment composite is at extremely pessimistic levels. Analysts' recommendations have never been this pessimistic on the stock.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Margin Debt, Valuations, Buffett, Insiders, Crude Oil by Managed Money

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Some sentiment/valuation indicators are stretched, although interest rates are low.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Trade Deficit Widens

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OECD U.S. CLI continues to strengthen. Weekly retail sales edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Trade Deficit Widens

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OECD U.S. CLI continues to strengthen. Weekly retail sales edge down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

As Cyclical Bull Matures, Shift Away from Small-Caps

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Valuations and sentiment more extreme, but technicals have not confirmed uptrend over. Cyclical bull market maturing. Shifting from favoring small-caps to neutral.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Is Soft Data Worth Watching?

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We answer clients' questions on the significance of soft economic data. While soft data is outpacing hard data in the U.S., this isn't anything unusual. Soft data does an excellent job of dictating the trend and direction of economic activity, with its timely release providing a big advantage.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Opportunities and Risks in European Corporate Credit

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Spreads remain tight and correlations high in both European and U.S. investment grade corporate credit. P&C is a potential opportunity, while Oil Field Services is still risky.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Three Steps & Stumble Implications for ETFs

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The old adage may not apply to the broad market anymore but may influence important macro drivers of return. The yield curve is an indicator we are particularly focused on. A narrowing of the curve could be a catalyst that reverses overbought and extremely optimistic positions on Financials.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Factory Orders Post Another Gain

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Trends suggest modest improvement in factory activity.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Factory Orders Post Another Gain

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Trends suggest modest improvement in factory activity.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

1987 and Trend Update

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Comparing the current market to 1987. Trend evidence is bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Up

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The increases in both ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes in February bode well for real GDP growth in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Up

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The increases in both ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes in February bode well for real GDP growth in Q1.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Retail Sales, Core vs Actual Inflation, and Operating vs GAAP Earnings

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Economic update, plus indicator results in core vs actual inflation, and operating versus GAAP earnings.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Amid the Records, Divergence and Exhaustion

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Divergences and excessive optimism still support correction case. Continuing shift to defensive sector relative strength would be confirmation. Considering sector weights and model, downgrading Canada and Emerging Markets, upgrading Europe ex. U.K.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Strong Tape & Excessive Optimism

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Rally could stall in March as buybacks slow and market works off excessive optimism.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Technical Analysis | TA Notebook | Weekly

When Doves Capitulate

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FOMC members are signaling a strong probability of a March rate hike. But bond market and yield curve have not yet broken down.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Jobless Claims Sink To A New Low

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Consumer comfort keeps rising. Some moderation in light vehicle sales. Beige Book shows continued modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Jobless Claims Sink To A New Low

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Consumer comfort keeps rising. Some moderation in light vehicle sales. Beige Book shows continued modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Health Care Shaking Off the Rhetoric

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Health Care ETFs are broadly showing trend strength. Topline growth and consumer confidence are two tailwinds. We are adding RYH to our list of ETF ideas.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Remaining Overweight Brazilian Equities... For Now

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Our quantitative indicators continue to favor Brazilian equities, on balance. Political risks to the rally remain elevated, and Fed tightening is a concern. We remain Overweight MSCI Brazil relative to the EM benchmark with a three-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Sector Performance during High Consumer Confidence

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Historically, Health Care, Consumer Staples and Technology have been the best performers during periods of elevated consumer confidence. Consumer confidence has remained higher for longer during secular bull markets. Falling out of a high confidence period would be taken as a negative.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

Credit Continues to Lead the Way

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EM, HY were the top performing sectors in February. World bond funds had best inflows since July 2014. High yield may be running out of fuel.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

More Upside for the Global Economy

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The latest global PMIs point to above-average economic expansion with signs of improving momentum in the coming months. While the global outlook appears to be healthy and stable, our studies based on the PMIs suggest a global equity correction is possible, but an outright bear market is unlikely. Most of the world's largest developed and emerging economies continued to indicate expansion, with several countries reporting the fastest growth in years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Solid Improvement In Factory Activity

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PCE inflation heading up. Construction spending falls, led by the public sector. Mortgage applications rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Solid Improvement In Factory Activity

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PCE inflation heading up. Construction spending falls, led by the public sector. Mortgage applications rebound.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy Euro Hedges While They Remain Cheap

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Despite looming political risks, the cost of hedging euro currency risk remains relatively low. We would go long euro volatility with a three month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Comment | Weekly

February Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Monthly Sentiment/Valuation update shows high risks, but with some offsetting evidence.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2001

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Q4 real GDP growth holds at 1.9%. Regional factory activity strengthens. Existing home prices continue to rise. Advance goods trade deficit widens. Weekly retail sales remain sluggish.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2001

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Q4 real GDP growth holds at 1.9%. Regional factory activity strengthens. Existing home prices continue to rise. Advance goods trade deficit widens. Weekly retail sales remain sluggish.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

25 Million New Jobs In A Decade?

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The President's goal of creating 25 million new jobs in a decade faces labor supply constraints from unfavorable demographics, and could lead to faster wage growth and inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Is Inflation a Problem?

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Some inflation indicators have turned bearish for stocks. Not enough have flipped to override the bullish tape. Three questions to determine if inflation becoming immediate concern.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Credit Spreads Tight Despite High Policy Uncertainty

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Usually, corporate spreads rise with economic policy uncertainty. But better economic performance and stimulative policy expectations have reduced default risk and pushed the spread down. We remain overweight corporate credit.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

ETF AA Model Update - Bullish Despite Overbought Condition

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Equity ETF trends are broadly overbought; however, the uptrend is quite strong feeding into a bullish message from our model. The model strongly favors large cap ETFs in its sub-allocations and strength in longer-term Treasurys has led to some changes in the bond recommendations as well.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Durable Goods Orders Rise, Led By Aircraft

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Texas factory activity continues to strengthen. Pending home sales drop.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Rise, Led By Aircraft

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Texas factory activity continues to strengthen. Pending home sales drop.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

An Energy Pair Trade That Makes Sense

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In the current environment, a long Oilfield Services/short Integrated Oil trade makes sense.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

Hypothetical Record - 45 of 46 Correct Signals Since 1947!

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Highlights breadth thrust indicators. Trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

New Home Sales Advance

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Consumer sentiment down slightly in February.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

New Home Sales Advance

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Consumer sentiment down slightly in February.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Some Thoughts on Tax Reform

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Tax Reform probably a net plus, but there will be winners and losers. Like I did on Tuesday, I feature IBM.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Why We Are Sticking with Banks

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Sticking with Banks overweight based on strong scorecard readings. Watching valuation and interest rate risks. Setting a stop-loss to manage the position.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

CFNAI Consistent With Trend Economic Growth

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Consumer comfort near highest in a decade. Jobless claims continue to trend lower. Existing home prices rise. K.C. Fed factory activity strengthens further.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Consistent With Trend Economic Growth

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Consumer comfort near highest in a decade. Jobless claims continue to trend lower. Existing home prices rise. K.C. Fed factory activity strengthens further.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

My Favorite Ways to Generate Trade Ideas

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We focus on reversals from extremes in the short run. For longer-term ideas, we look for relative strength with positive fundamental evidence.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Another Setback for the Secular Bond Bear Case

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Recent data shows greater, not weaker, demand from households and foreign official institutions, thereby dealing a setback to the secular bear case. Flows into bond funds and bond ETFs have been steadily building this year. Foreign official institutions returned to the buy side in November and December.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

Is France Now the Next Member of the Periphery?

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For some time, France has shared several economic characteristics with peripheral eurozone economies. But markets haven't treated it like one, until now. The potential chance of a Marine Le Pen win for President, which could imply a dissolution of the euro, is what's now making France peripheral-like. We look at the causes behind her rise.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Hold Gold for the Long-Term - Buy More on Weakness

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Indicators point to gold reversal over the short-term. But long-term indicators support prospects for continued uptrend. Correction would be an opportunity to buy on weakness.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Poland: Overweight on Improving Market and Economic Momentum

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Despite a weak Scorecard reading, there are reasons for optimism on Polish equities. The real economy is improving, liquidity is plentiful, and policy threats arguably contained. We are Overweight MSCI Poland relative to the MSCI EM Index with a 6-12 month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Existing Home Sales Highest In Nearly A Decade

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Architecture billings decline, but near-term trend holds up. ATA truck tonnage picks up. Weekly retail sales remain subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Highest In Nearly A Decade

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Architecture billings decline, but near-term trend holds up. ATA truck tonnage picks up. Weekly retail sales remain subdued.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Free Cash Flow Factor Strategy Outperforming

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Favored Factors: Lower Accruals, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Shareholder Yield. Selected Stocks Include: Ross Stores, Baker Hughes, American Express, Boeing, Raytheon, Texas Instruments.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Featured Stock Chart Bundle Update

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Closing out Western Union Company (WU), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), and RPM International Inc. (RPM). Based on combination of fundamental, technical, sentiment, and macro data.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

The Big Sentiment Divide

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Sentiment leans too optimistic, but there is a split likely based upon politics, so need trend weakness to confirm excessive optimism.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Update on Hedged Japan Trade: DXJ as a Risk-On Investment?

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In contrast to historical tendencies, DXJ is acting as a risk-on investment. We would maintain a position in hedged Japan if our models remain constructive and trend evidence remains supportive.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

Not Time to Get Lulled to Sleep

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Sentiment, earnings, valuation, and interest rate indicators have deteriorated. Tape remains bullish. We remain positive on U.S. equities, but are watching for signs of a weakening tape to reduce our outlook.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Slower Private Sector Growth

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But freight activity trends improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Slower Private Sector Growth

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But freight activity trends improve.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

What You Need to Know About the China Aggregate

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Bloomberg Barclays introducing new global bond indexes which include large portions of the China Aggregate. Global and EM bond managers will need to pay more attention to the China Agg. We have created a series of charts to help track developments in this important market.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Survivorship Bias and Big Mo Tape Update

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Leaving IBM in DJIA from 1939-1979 could have caused much higher Dow levels. Trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Bond Market Blows Bearish Opportunities

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The bond market doesn't appear to be ready to embrace a pivot to a secular bear at this time. As a result, we are increasing our bond exposure to 90% of benchmark duration from 85%. This tactical move does not alter our view of the secular risks facing bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income| U.S. Focus | Monthly

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth Ahead

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High optimism in the equipment finance industry. E-commerce market share holds at record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Suggests Stronger Growth Ahead

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High optimism in the equipment finance industry. E-commerce market share holds at record high.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Inflation and Valuations

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Inflation can corrode all kinds of indicators. I'm closely watching an inflation adjusted P/E ratio.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Four Moves to Better Align with our New Sector Model

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To get more in line with our recently launched sector model, we are upgrading Utilities to marketweight and downgrading Health Care to underweight. We are positioning Consumer Staples and Materials weights below benchmark. Only meaningful deviation is maintaining an overweight on Industrials.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Four Things You Should Know about our New Sector Model

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We introduce our new Sector Model.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Philly Fed Manufacturing Surges

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Hosing starts edged down for the month, but upward trend continues. Housing affordability declines. Consumer comfort rises, but expectations sag. Jobless claims still close to lowest since 1973.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ETFs Broadly Overbought -- Warning Sign or Has the Party Just Begun?

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The majority of domestic equity ETFs are overbought based on our longer-term metric. However, in most cases, the funds are in well-defined uptrends. We revamped our Mean Reversion Score report to help better identify major themes.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Talk | Weekly

Philly Fed Manufacturing Surges

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Housing starts edged down for the month, but upward trend continues. Housing affordability declines. Consumer comfort rises, but expectations sag. Jobless claims still close to lowest since 1973.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Introducing the Secular Bond Bear Watch Report

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The report summarizes all of the criteria needed to establish a secular bond bear.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

China's Balancing Act, and What the Central Bank is Doing About It

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Unbeknownst to some, China was the first of the world's major central banks to tighten policy this year. The tightening, however, has been unconventional. China's economy needs to slow in some areas, but it isn't strong enough to withstand aggressive and broad-based tightening. The benefit of the PBoC's non-traditional lending is that it allows the bank to control credit without having a sizable impact on broader economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Focus | Monthly

Cutting Equity Exposure, Downgrading U.S.

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Shifting 5% from stocks to bonds, now 65% equities. Reducing exposure to U.S. and Canadian markets. Adding exposure to Pacific ex. Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Retail Sales And Inflation Rise

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Retail sales rose in January, while industrial production fell, led by utilities, and excess capacity remained abundant. CPI inflation climbed to 2.5%, led by energy. But our Inflation Timing Model held firmly in the moderate inflation zone.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales And Inflation Rise

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Retail sales rose in January, while industrial production fell, led by utilities, and excess capacity remained abundant. CPI inflation climbed to 2.5%, led by energy. But our Inflation Timing Model held firmly in the moderate inflation zone.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Greek Equities: Signs of Life?

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Greek equities have seen improved momentum in recent weeks. While there may be green shoots in the Greek story, several near-term challenges remain. We are underweight Greek equities with a two-month view until there is further clarity on domestic politics and/or bailout funds.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

AutoNation, Inc. (AN)

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AutoNation is on a BUY rating across the short-, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. AN is trading near 11x trailing and forward earnings. The stock is one standard deviation oversold and sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Mutual Fund's Cash at Record Lows, Plus Hedge Fund Holdings

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A number of stock market sentiment/valuation indicators show excessive optimism, but low interest rates temper concerns. Also, hedge fund sentiment on other markets.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Price Momentum Strategies Outperforming

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Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum, Free Cash Flow Multiples, Earnings Revisions. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: ING Groep, Siemens, ABB AG, Linde AG, Endesa SA. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Reckitt Benckiser Group, Burberry Group, Wolseley, Evraz, Centrica.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

The Border Adjustment Tax: Winners and Losers

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The proposed corporate tax reform could stimulate domestic investment and production, which could lead to faster productivity growth. Exporters (e.g., capital goods, farm products) should benefit, while importers (e.g., apparel, refiners) could suffer. While a border adjustment tax would lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, it could also cause consumer prices to rise in the short-to-intermediate term. If interpreted as a subsidy to U.S. exporters, the border adjustment tax could invite protectionist responses from trading partners and lead to slower global trade and slower global growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

PPI Inflation On The Rise, Led By Energy

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Small businesses sustain post-election optimism. Weekly retail sales pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation On The Rise, Led By Energy

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Small businesses sustain post-election optimism. Weekly retail sales pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Surprisingly Consistent Quality Trade

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Low Quality has outperformed High Quality by the most in seven years. Look for Low Quality's relative strength to moderate as the cyclical bull matures.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Bond Bear Playbook - ETF Positioning Guide

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The NDR Macro team has become increasingly aware of the potential for a secular bear market in bonds. We look at various categories to create a playbook for ETF investors during a bond secular bear. Many of our favored funds are stretched to the upside but nonetheless, SPHB, KBWB, EZU, RSX, and IGHG are some of our favorite plays for a bond bear.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Strategy | Highlights | Weekly

How Big is China's Bond Market?

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Many investors are worried about the explosive growth of Chinese debt. But that doesn't automatically spell trouble for investors in Chinese bonds.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

A Federal Budget Surplus In January

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CRE sentiment rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

A Federal Budget Surplus In January

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CRE sentiment rebounds.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NDR Supply and Demand Trend Evidence Update

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but volume demand has stalled somewhat.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Sentiment Retreats

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Also, import prices rise, led by fuel.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Sentiment Retreats

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Also, import prices rise, led by fuel.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Abnormal to Normal, Passive to Active?

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Abnormalities have included extended rallies, low volatility, high correlation. Mutual fund and ETF flows reflect shift from active to passive management. When trends normalize, watch flows for signs of active management interest.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

GDP and Growth Reflections

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NDR expects economic growth to pick up this year, but also a look at some longer-term head winds.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

India: Still Underweight

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We remain underweight India. Momentum is weak, and valuations uncompelling. Modi continues to fail investors.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Monthly Sector Update - February 2017

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Utilities, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Financials would be biggest lower tax winners. Watch commodities, rates, and key sector relative strength trends for signs of "Risk-on." Sector summary pages show key relative strength trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Why We Are Worried About a Secular Pivot in Bonds

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We are increasingly worried that the bond market is undergoing a secular pivot from bullish to bearish. Investors are facing an asymmetric risk profile with limited upside and plenty of downside.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Consumer Comfort Marches Higher

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Jobless claims continue to dwindle. Wholesale inventories rise. Housing affordability slips within range.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

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