Recent Publications

Is the Eurozone Ready for Tapering?

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Many of you have asked if the eurozone economy can survive with less stimulus. We suspect it will.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Architecture billings contract. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts and Permits Decline

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Architecture billings contract. Mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Global Factor-Based Investing - Opportunities, Risks, and Implementation

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Factor investing is growing in popularity as evidenced by the number of published articles and ETF flows. Regardless of geography, over the long-term favor higher quality, cheaper companies that efficiently generate cash, reward equity shareholders, and receive recognition from investors. However, the environment affects factor behavior, so tactical portfolio managers can adjust their allocations to control risks and improve returns. Current risks to factor investing include rising correlations and elevated valuations.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Decline in Publicly Traded Stocks

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The number of listed stocks in long-term downtrend since the late 1990s. I try to analyze if this is a problem.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Favoring Price Momentum Factor Strategies

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No Factor Recommendation Changes This Month. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Continental, Adidas, Unilever, Repsol, DnB, Bayer, Deutsche Post, Volvo, SAP Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Ashtead Group, Intertek Group, Rio Tinto, Mondi.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

New Stock Market Model Confirms Positive Outlook

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New U.S. Stock Market Model for intermediate-term S&P 500 outlook. Model bullish based on strong technicals, positive EPS growth, and solid economy. Sentiment warns of optimism and complacency. Detailed explanation of model building process.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Don't be Surprised by Higher Inflation

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The New York Fed's Underlying Inflation Gauges suggest inflation trends are creeping up, and could show up in headline and core CPI inflation in 2018.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Industrial Production Up, But Still Shows Hurricane Impact

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Builder confidence rebounds. Import prices pick up. But Empire services activity and outlook moderate. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Industrial Production Up, But Still Shows Hurricane Impact

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Builder confidence rebounds. Import prices pick up. But Empire services activity and outlook moderate. Weekly retail sales remain soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Baby Step Toward a More Bearish Bond Position

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We are reducing our bond exposure by 5%. Tentative signs that prices and wages are beginning to pick up.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Technology Still Has Momentum

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Funds flows have shifted to Trump Trades, with sourcing from Technology. Semiconductor and Software ETF trends have remained strong. Within our ETF strategy, maintain exposure to QQQ and SPHB and consider IGV, XSD, and FDN as granular plays.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Empire Manufacturing Accelerates

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The outlook for future conditions also strengthened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Empire Manufacturing Accelerates

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The outlook for future conditions also strengthened.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Bullish Technical Composites - More Stop-Loss Points

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Trend evidence remains bullish. What to watch for a potential change.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Retail Sales Rebound

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CPI inflation remains low. Consumer sentiment recovers. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Retail Sales Rebound

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CPI inflation remains low. Consumer sentiment recovers. Business inventories up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Tax Reform and the Trump Bump

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Tax reform should cause a bump, but only mildly.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Corporate Credits Under Attack, at Risk, and Improving

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We're starting to see some differentiation in credit. We remain worried about consumer-related industries, particularly Retail, Supermarkets, Restaurants, and Food/Beverage. Conversely, commodity-related industries have been improving.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Tax Reform Beneficiaries: Take Two

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Given the revived hope for tax reform, we took another look at sectors and sub-industries with high effective tax rates (>30%) and low interest expense burden (<10%), in order to find potential reform winners. We screened for high tax and low interest burden companies and our results showed the following sectors and industries could benefit the most from tax reform: Consumer Staples (Hypermarkets & Supercenters), Consumer Discretionary (Automotive Retail and Apparel Retail), Industrials (Trading Companies & Distributors).

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Comment | Weekly

A Strengthened Rally - Will Fund Flows Return?

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Global market advance supported by Rally Watch and Risk-On indications. Relative sentiment and flows indicate greater potential for stocks than bonds. Rising equity mutual fund inflows would support secular bull and active management prospects.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

PPI Inflation Accelerates

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Jobless claims continue to slide. But consumer comfort weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

PPI Inflation Accelerates

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Jobless claims continue to slide. But consumer comfort weakens.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Optimism as Far as the Eye Can See

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Our ETF Speculation Index is back to extreme optimism. The sentiment condition is extremely broad-based. Notable optimistic extremes can be found in Aerospace & Defense, small-caps, Health Care, and Industrials. Sentiment remains mildly pessimistic on Energy and various bond proxies.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

A Review of Our Currency Valuation Tools

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We review two methods of currency valuation, and introduce a forward-looking metric. The standard textbook method of calculating PPP is of limited practical utility. PPP calculations incorporating market data and future expectations can be more useful than the standard approach.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Global Economic Conditions Point to Smooth Sailing for the Time Being

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Global economic data continues to point to above-trend growth. Economic sentiment has also made new highs. Our analysis suggests that this should continue to be positive for global equities.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

JOLTS: Little Turnover In Tight Labor Market

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Mortgage applications edged down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

JOLTS: Little Turnover In Tight Labor Market

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Mortgage applications edged down.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

A Decade Later, Few Signs of Another Major Peak

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Private sector less leveraged, but Fed unwind a major risk. Valuations higher than in 2007. Watch for margin compression. Technicals stronger than in October 2007.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

September Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Most sentiment/valuation work stretched on upside.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Does Rising Income Inequality Matter?

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Real family income and wealth increased in the 2013-2016 period. But the gains were uneven across the income distribution, and resulted in higher inequality. The current tax reform proposal would increase income inequality. Tight labor markets and faster wage growth could help ease inequality over time.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

China - The Next Frontier

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Investors should seriously consider adding Chinese bonds to their global bond portfolios. Those worried about investing in the onshore market should look at the offshore market and the bonds of USD-denominated Chinese debt.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Drops

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Weekly retail sales soften.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Drops

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Weekly retail sales soften.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Energy Snaps Back

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Since registering a pessimistic extreme in late August, Oilfield Service equities have rallied by ~16%. We discuss the indicators that will reveal whether this rally is sustainable.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

Turkey: Downgrading to Marketweight

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We are downgrading Turkish equities to marketweight with a three-month view. Long-term fundamentals remain more constructive than headlines suggest. Technicals and political headlines are a near-term challenge.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

ETF Investors Flocking Back to the "Trump" Trades, Will it Last?

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Among others, notable Trump trade beneficiaries are domestic small-caps, Financials, and Industrials. ETF investors have been adding allocation to all three of these areas. Sentiment and seasonality trends suggest that Trump trade outperformance can last through Q4. However, the trades are quickly becoming consensus, evident in our ETF Sentiment Ratings as well as investor positioning.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Employment Trends Little Changed

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OECD U.S. CLI holds steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Employment Trends Little Changed

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OECD U.S. CLI holds steady.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Bullish Trend Composites - More Points to Watch

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but points to watch.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Labor Markets Tighten, Wage Pressures Building

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Despite distortions to the September employment surveys from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there were clear signs that labor markets continued to tighten and are beginning to put upward pressure on wages. This report should be sufficient to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Labor Markets Tighten, Wage Pressures Building

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Despite distortions to the September employment surveys from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there were clear signs that labor markets continued to tighten and are beginning to put upward pressure on wages. This report should be sufficient to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Four Positive - Four Negative Charts on Economy

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I continue to see mixed macro indicators. The evidence leans mildly bullish for the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - October 2017

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Sector relative returns from 9/8/17 to 9/29/17 nearly mirrored those from 11/8/16 to 11/29/16 as the Trump Trade returned. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 2.4%, Financials relative strength breaking above its July high, and a downgrade of Growth to neutral are triggers that could cause us to upgrade Financials. We are encouraged by improvement Industrials; Both Financials and Industrials are on watch for an upgrade to overweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

30 Years Later - A Better October

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Current bullish outlook stands in contrast to October 1987. Octobers of 1997 and 2007 also compared. We expect a better year-seven October and fourth quarter strength.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Factory Orders Rebound

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Jobless claims and layoff announcements decline. Consumer comfort and CEO confidence slide. Trade deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Factory Orders Rebound

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Jobless claims and layoff announcements decline. Consumer comfort and CEO confidence slide. Trade deficit narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Bullish Developments for Energy Funds

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Two of our favorite screens for generating trade ideas now have strong representation from the Energy sector. Short-term, Energy is overbought and seasonality is poor. But sentiment remains depressed. We would look to rotate from IXC to XOP should the overbought condition ease, as long as the outlook for oil remains bullish.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Tax Reform: Marriage Made in Heaven, Shotgun Wedding, or Left at the Altar?

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A corporate tax cut could boost S&P 500 EPS 7-14%. For the S&P 600, it could be 27-35%. Investors are not differentiating between high and low tax payers within small-caps. An individual tax cut is unlikely to be as stimulative as the Kennedy and Reagan cuts. Removing deductions like state taxes may prove difficult.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Baby Steps to a Bond Bear

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We are still looking to eventually declare a bond bear market. We review the indicators we are watching and note some deterioration, taking us closer to a bond bear.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Can Immigration Change a Country's Demographic Destiny?

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Among some of the most demographically challenged countries in the world, such as Germany and Japan, the answer is no. Countries with smaller percentage declines in population and relatively high immigration could realistically increase immigration to make up for their population declines.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Surges

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Light vehicle sales jump. ADP payrolls take a hit from the hurricanes. Online labor demand remains weak. Mortgage applications soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Surges

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Light vehicle sales jump. ADP payrolls take a hit from the hurricanes. Online labor demand remains weak. Mortgage applications soft.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Contrarian Contradiction

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University of Michigan consumer sentiment on stocks hit record highs. I see sentiment/valuation as leaning mildly bearish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Stay the Course on Spain... For Now

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Despite political headlines, the fundamental picture in Spain has been strong. Our quantitative indicators remain favorable, on balance. We remain overweight Spanish equities relative to European peers with a six- to 12-month view.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Is Global Growth Finally at Pre-Crisis Levels?

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Global economic growth appears to be coming back to its pre-crisis levels, according to the latest PMI data, with our measure of economic breadth at its best point since 2007. Despite the broadening growth trends, the developed world, led by Europe, continues to lead growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Weekly Retail Sales Pick Up At Month-End

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But ISM New York services activity contracts.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Weekly Retail Sales Pick Up At Month-End

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But ISM New York services activity contracts.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

End of the Line on CGB/Tsy Spread Widening?

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Canadian spreads have widened to the highest levels in years. The BOC has met its near-term objective of removing the insurance it took out in 2015, and is prepared to pause its interest rate normalization policy. Tighter financial conditions should slow the economy and keep core inflation below that of the U.S. The 10-year CGB/Tsy spread should not rise above zero.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Benchmark Review: Asset Inflation in the Face of QT. Also, Trump.

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S&P 500 posts 11th consecutive monthly gain, a 58-year high. Gains were broad-based. Eleven of 12 asset class benchmarks rose in Q3. Commodities, emerging markets and related sectors rebounded, especially in September.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Benchmarks | Quarterly

ISM Manufacturing Up Strongly

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But state coincident indexes show more economic weakness. Construction spending rebounds only slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Manufacturing Up Strongly

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But state coincident indexes show more economic weakness. Construction spending rebounds only slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Quarterly ETF AA Model Update - Positioned for a Yearend Rally

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The ETF AA Model is now recommending 100% equity exposure, up from 86% last month. The global uptrend in stocks relative to bonds remains intact and economic data continues to support the aggressive equity weighting. Within stocks, the model has begun to shift allocation from emerging markets to domestic small-caps.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Stop-Loss Points

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Trend evidence leans bullish, but I present some stop-loss points on key market averages.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Personal Income And Spending Up Slightly

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Consumer sentiment declines. Regionals show broad-based manufacturing growth. CRE market conditions improve modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Personal Income And Spending Up Slightly

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Consumer sentiment declines. Regionals show broad-based manufacturing growth. CRE market conditions improve modestly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Most Bullish Macro Charts

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This has been a weak economic recovery, yet there are several macroeconomic charts that remain bullish for stocks and the economy.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Mirror-Image Sentiment - Reversals Ahead for Gold and the Dollar?

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Gold and U.S. dollar have been correcting sentiment extremes. Expect resumption of long-term gold uptrend, dollar downtrend. Models to confirm reversals.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Cautiously Upgrading Autos

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We upgrade the Auto Industry to marketweight on better technical trends. The upgrade should be considered short-term, or tactical, until we see better light vehicle sales trends.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Q2 GDP Revised Up Another Notch

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Consumer comfort rebounds, although jobless claims increase. K.C. Fed manufacturing strengthens. NEMA confidence up. Advance goods trade gap narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Q2 GDP Revised Up Another Notch

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Consumer comfort rebounds, although jobless claims increase. K.C. Fed manufacturing strengthens. NEMA confidence up. Advance goods trade gap narrows.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Encouraging Breakouts & Some Potentially Surprising Breakdowns

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Breakouts in Financials and small-caps are supported by seasonal trends in interest rates. On the other hand, India and Indonesia are breaking down. Emerging markets have not done well on a cyclical basis when rates have been rising.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Catastrophe Bonds Take Hit But Still Serve Useful Purpose

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Cat bonds have performed well over the past 15 years, comparable to U.S. high yield corporates. Cat bond are generally less correlated with other high-yielding securities. Issuance is growing but the market remains small.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Rebound

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Pending home sales sink. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Durable Goods Orders Rebound

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Pending home sales sink. Mortgage applications mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

U.S. Factor Positioning Update

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Factor Changes: None. Favored Factors: Interest Coverage, Cash Position, Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, Price Momentum, Long-Term Sales Growth. Selected Stocks Include: Priceline Group, Berkshire Hathaway, UnitedHealth Group, Celgene, Boeing, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | U.S. Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Q2 Quarterly Update - What Does Asset Allocation Tell Us About Long-Term Sentiment?

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Longer-term asset allocation shows households, institutions, and foreigners fairly fully invested, but offset with continuing buying by corporations.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Consumer Confidence Off Slightly

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New home sales decline. Existing home prices pick up. Regional activity indexes mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Consumer Confidence Off Slightly

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New home sales decline. Existing home prices pick up. Regional activity indexes mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Is the Euro Rally Over?

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The German election result does not change our outlook for the euro. Technical and fundamental indicators remain bullish, on balance. Longer-term political risks remain, notably in Italy and France.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Why Are Small-Cap Earnings Often Non-Existent?

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Small-caps grow sales faster than large-caps, on average. Large-caps have higher profit margins. Currently, small-caps are not growing their sales fast enough to overcome lower margins.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Have We Seen the Peak in Negative Yielding Debt?

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We may have seen the peak in the amount of negative yielding debt. Returns on negative yielding debt have been volatile. Eliminating negative yielding debt would be a clear sign that global financial conditions have finally returned to normal.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Oil & Energy Rising

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Since June, oil has rallied by 32%, but energy equities have only increased by 6%. The weight of the evidence points to a continuation of the oil rally and for energy equities to play catch-up. We provide five picks.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Focus | Monthly

CFNAI Points to Modestly Slower Growth

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Texas factory activity holds up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

CFNAI Points to Modestly Slower Growth

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Texas factory activity holds up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Gold Sentiment Reversing From an Extreme and Why That Is Bullish for Financials

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Our NDR Gold Sentiment Composite is reversing from an optimistic extreme. Gold and Financials have a strengthening inverse correlation with each other. Seasonal trends are also supportive of gold weakness and strength in the Financials.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Loss of Momentum, but Still Leans Mildly Bullish

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A lack of upside thrust, but most groups still in uptrends.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Robust Growth

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Private sector business activity continued to grow at a robust pace in September, despite some temporary disruptions from hurricane Harvey.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Markit Flash U.S. PMIs Show Robust Growth

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Private sector business activity continued to grow at a robust pace in September, despite some temporary disruptions from hurricane Harvey.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Q2 Quarterly Debt and Savings Update

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Savings are relatively low and debt relatively high.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

After Year-End Rally, Rate-Driven Risk in '18?

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Year-end rally prospects supported by improving breadth and room for rising optimism. Risk of 2018 decline would be supported by complacency and signs of a negative impact from rising bond yields. Changing correlations already indicate that ongoing yield advance would be a negative influence on Technology, which dominates global market cap.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Implementing Thematic Shifts

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Shifting to Commodity over Consumer theme; Upgrading Energy to overweight while downgrading Consumer Discretionary to underweight. Health Care upgraded to marketweight while Utilities downgraded to marketweight, more in line with Growth over Value. Energy Equipment & Services, Biotechnology, and Aerospace & Defense upgraded to overweight. Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders upgraded to marketweight; Electric Utilities downgraded to marketweight and Media to underweight.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Demographic Demise or Opportunity?

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Global population growth is slowing and is projected to have some profound proportional shifts by age and by country over the coming decades. Many developed, and even some emerging, country populations are shrinking and getting much older. The least developed world is set to provide the biggest contribution to the world's labor force through the end of the century. These shifting population structures will likely have implications on the long-term performance of equity markets, economic growth, productivity, and inflation.

Ned Davis Research | Global Featured Report | Mixed

LEI Points To Stronger Growth Near-Term

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Philly Fed factory activity picks up. Jobless claims decline. But consumer expectations and comfort pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

LEI Points To Stronger Growth Near-Term

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Philly Fed factory activity picks up. Jobless claims decline. But consumer expectations and comfort pull back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Buy, Sell, or Hold

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Our current ETF recommendations are relatively high beta and sensitive to global growth. We would feel comfortable accumulating more MTUM, SPHB, and IXC. RYH, ITA, KIE, XME, and EWA are holds. We are closing our VNQ trade.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Balance Sheet Unwind Begins

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Balance sheet unwind begins in October. Fed on track to raise rates again in December.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Comment | Daily

Existing Home Sales Decline

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Mortgage application also drop. But architecture billings rise. Freight activity picks up. CEOs maintain a positive outlook for the economy. Most reports were impacted by the back-to-back hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Existing Home Sales Decline

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Mortgage application also drop. But architecture billings rise. Freight activity picks up. CEOs maintain a positive outlook for the economy. Most reports were impacted by the back-to-back hurricanes.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Aetna Inc. (AET)

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Aetna is on a BUY rating for the short, intermediate-, and long-term Focus Ranks. AET has a top decile price momentum ranking and favorable relative strength compared to the market, Health Care sector, and Managed Health Care subindustry. Analyst sentiment has become more pessimistic, but recently earnings estimates have been rising.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

Europe Factor Strategy Update

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No Factor Recommendation Changes this Month. Favored Factors Include: Price Momentum and Cheaper Free Cash Flow Multiples. Favored Europe ex. U.K. Stocks Include: Christian Dior, Adidas, Unilever, Axa, DnB, Deutsche Post, SAP, BASF. Favored U.K. Stocks Include: Persimmon, Burberry Group, Relx, Mondi, International Consolidated Airlines Group.

Ned Davis Research | Stock Selection | Europe Portfolio Strategy | Monthly

Bullish Sentiment Charts

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Most sentiment/valuation indicators show high risks, but there are important offsets.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Focus on U.S. Fiscal Health

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The shift of U.S. budget and debt ceiling risks to yearend does not change the longer-term outlook of a deteriorating fiscal position. The Fed's normalization plans could weigh on the budget in the next few years.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Housing Starts Slip, But Permits Rebound

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Import prices rise. Current account deficit widens. Equipment leasing and finance confidence eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Housing Starts Slip, But Permits Rebound

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Import prices rise. Current account deficit widens. Equipment leasing and finance confidence eases.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

European Corporate Credit Looking Tired

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For investment grade corporates, the U.S. is looking more attractive than Europe. In the high yield space, Europe continues to outperform the U.S. Within Europe, we recommend moving up in quality.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Focus | Weekly

Was That the Correction? Five Stats to Consider.

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To date, the fall correction is among the smallest on record. Regardless of whether another pullback eclipses this one, it should be viewed in the context of an uptrend. Watch the Fed and earnings growth for the end of the cyclical bull.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

What to Watch for Confirmation on Sterling

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Near-term GBP technicals have improved after last week's rally. The fundamental picture remains mixed at best. We highlight signals to watch from a tactical standpoint.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Energy is Finally Rising from the Ashes

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USO and XLE have confirmed relative strength that we noticed in IXC two weeks ago. Sentiment conditions suggest that there may be further room to rally. We're watching upstream-tracking funds for further confirmation and continue to have a tactical trade on for IXC.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Builder Confidence Drops

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Empire services activity moderates. Port data points to a wider trade gap.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Builder Confidence Drops

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Empire services activity moderates. Port data points to a wider trade gap.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Blame it on Mother Nature

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The hard-economic data on employment and real retail sales is not confirming all the optimism from Main Street and Wall Street.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Most Bullish Trend Charts

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Trend evidence leans bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Hurricanes Weigh on Economic Data

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Today's economic reports showed a negative impact on retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment from hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Given the timing of the storms, the impact will linger through September, but we expect a rebound in economic activity in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Hurricanes Weigh on Economic Data

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Today's economic reports showed a negative impact on retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment from hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Given the timing of the storms, the impact will linger through September, but we expect a rebound in economic activity in Q4.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

The Key Chart for the Fed

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Are the risks of a financial bubble worth the rewards of a wealth effect?

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Do Low Spreads = Low Returns?

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Although corporate valuations remain rich and fund liquidity is low, none of the signs we would expect to see for a sustained decline in credit are present now.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Sector and Industry Performance After the Costliest Weather Disasters

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We look at sector and industry performance after the eight costliest weather disaster years since 1985; 2017 may become the second-costliest year on record. Technology and Industrials showed the best performance 12 months after the costliest disaster events while Utilities and Telecom struggled. We created a Weather Disaster Portfolio that we would expect to outperform over the next 12 months based on performance around prior costly weather disasters.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Some CPI Inflation, Thanks to Shelter

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Budget deficit widens. Consumer comfort pulls back. Jobless claims impacted by Harvey and Irma.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Some CPI Inflation, Thanks to Shelter

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Budget deficit widens. Consumer comfort pulls back. Jobless claims impacted by Harvey and Irma.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Emerging Markets Indicator Update

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Credit spreads have tightened to post-crisis lows. Currencies remain generally attractive relative to the USD and EUR. Equities continue to appear attractive on a relative basis.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Emerging Markets Focus | Monthly

Shouldn't Mid-Caps be in Our ETF AA Model?

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A periodic table of annual returns shows that mid-caps have been the best performer in the cap spectrum. However, for tactical plays, focusing on small versus large makes sense.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

Secular Bull Update - More Normal, More Active?

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Normalization signs include diminishing correlations. Watch for more inflows to active funds than passive. Also watch for equity mutual fund inflows to increase relative to bond fund inflows.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Global Recession Risk Remains Minimal

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Our favorite global economic indicators and reports are pointing to minimal recession risk and a resumption of strong economic growth trends.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Producer Prices Edge Up

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Mortgage applications jump. K.C. Fed labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Producer Prices Edge Up

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Mortgage applications jump. K.C. Fed labor market indicators continue to trend up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Absolute vs. Relative Valuations

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I compare absolute vs. relative valuations. I think risks outweigh rewards.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Examining Seasonal Tendencies

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NDR's website contains an interactive tool and pre-canned reports on seasonality. The Seasonality Tool plots absolute or relative seasonal performance on individual data series including economic metrics, asset classes, sectors, and stocks. Market, sector, ETF, and factor seasonality reports provide cross-sectional comparisons of the seasonal tendencies for each month within the chosen area.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | Insights | Monthly

Introducing the Global Yield Curve Composites

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We introduce expanded country coverage in BMS_15. Report provides yield curve composite readings for eight countries, including all of the G7.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

NFIB Small Business Optimism Remains High

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CFO optimism also strong. JOLTS show labor market continues to tighten. Manpower hiring plans steady. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

NFIB Small Business Optimism Remains High

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CFO optimism also strong. JOLTS show labor market continues to tighten. Manpower hiring plans steady. Weekly retail sales mixed.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Oil - Hurricanes Hit the Data

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Recent hurricanes have skewed crude oil inventory data. Market-based indicators continue to strengthen.

Ned Davis Research | Commodities | Comment | Weekly

Small-Cap Earnings Often Non-Existent. What to Do About It.

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Aggregating earnings to the index level requires many assumptions. Small-cap P/Es vary widely depending on those assumptions. Small-cap earnings can still be useful indicators. Currently, they show small-caps are modestly overvalued on an absolute basis and are unfavorable relative to large-caps.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Comment | Weekly

Volume Precedes Price

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Volume demand has weakened, but is still above supply.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Growth Leading the Way & a Few Other Ways to Play It

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The current macro environment favors Growth over Value. Our ETF AA Model portfolio has a heavy weighting in QQQ, while several of our tactical ideas are also Growth-oriented. A few other ideas from our ETF Screener are EEMV, PSJ, and EWA. We are opening a tactical call on EWA today.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Wholesale Inventories Rise

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Wholesale used vehicle prices continue to climb.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Wholesale Inventories Rise

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Wholesale used vehicle prices continue to climb.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

More Consumer Skepticism Stuff

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A lot of consumption appears to be debt driven. Vehicle and new home sales have stalled.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Monthly Sector Update - September 2017

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Considering sector allocation changes to implement Commodity over Consumer and Growth over Value themes. We look at which industries are showing a significant correlation to Russell 1000 Growth and Value indices.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Sector & Industry Focus | Monthly

Nonfarm Productivity Revised Up, Pushing ULC Down

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Jobless claims surge, due to Harvey. Consumer comfort slips. OECD U.S. CLI steady. Beige Book shows modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Nonfarm Productivity Revised Up, Pushing ULC Down

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Jobless claims surge, due to Harvey. Consumer comfort slips. OECD U.S. CLI steady. Beige Book shows modest-to-moderate growth.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Two More Charts in Support of the ETF AA Model & Another Near "Buy" from ETF Sentiment

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Our ETF AA Model has produced strong risk-adjusted returns and also taken much smaller drawdown than the benchmark. We introduce two new charts to show these relationships. Additionally, our ETF Speculation Index recently gave a "near buy" signal. The last one was bullish for equities.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Talk | Weekly

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Recovers

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Trade deficit widens slightly. Weekly retail sales and mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Recovers

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Trade deficit widens slightly. Weekly retail sales and mortgage applications edge up.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Risks Rising for Restaurants

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Sagging demand, excess capacity, deteriorating pricing power, and rising costs are pressuring restaurant gross margins. Companies without margin-enhancing initiatives are vulnerable to further underperformance if costs continue to rise. We will watch for further deterioration in fundamentals and broader capital market weakness before becoming bearish but the group should be considered at-risk and on watch for a downgrade to underweight.

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Featured Report | Mixed

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

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Gilead Sciences is on a BUY rating for the intermediate- and long-term Focus Ranks. GILD is showing favorable reward/risk based upon forward P/E. Relative strength looks favorable compared to the broad market, Health Care sector, and Biotechnology industry.

Ned Davis Research | NDR Explorer | U.S. Featured Stock Bundle | Weekly

August Sentiment/Valuation Update

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Consumers are excessively optimistic on the economy and the stock market. Presidential Approval does not confirm.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Back in Growth Mode

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Shifting to favoring Growth from neutral on a tactical basis. Technical confirmation, consistent model readings, and upcoming earnings deceleration favor Growth. The biggest risks are the yield curve, commodity prices, and FANG weakness. Growth's secular uptrend remains intact.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | U.S. Focus | Monthly

Reinitiating the Long SEK Trade

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We are reopening our long SEK vs. USD trade with a 3-month view. Technicals remain positive, with short-term model readings particularly strong. Valuations and inflation dynamics remain favorable, on balance.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Europe Focus | Monthly

Adding Three Ideas to Our ETF Portfolio - Metals & Mining, Insurers, and Global Energy

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XME and IXC are showing improvement in relative strength, coming from a low base. Sentiment is becoming pessimistic on KIE while seasonal trends are lining up for a rally. All three of these funds should benefit from stronger global economic growth.

Ned Davis Research | ETF Selection | Highlights | Weekly

Light Vehicle Sales Decline

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Capex orders rise, trends improve. Employment trends solid. NYC services activity pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Light Vehicle Sales Decline

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Capex orders rise, trends improve. Employment trends solid. NYC services activity pulls back.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

CoCo Monsters and Cryptocurrencies

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CoCo bonds have been on fire. As long as fundamentals remain favorable, yield-seeking investors might want to consider CoCos. We introduce a chart of the Bitcoin indexes.

Ned Davis Research | Fixed Income | Global Comment | Weekly

Indicator with Near Perfect Track Record Predicts Decline?

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Stocks above 200-day moving average have deteriorated, but our own moving average studies on Big Mo Tape, and our Moving Average Model remain on buy signals.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Global Economy Gets a Second Wind

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After showing signs of leveling off earlier this year, the global manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in six years, making a broad-based comeback within both developed and emerging markets.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Global Comment | Weekly

Soft Employment Report, But No Change In Underlying Trends

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ISM factory activity up significantly. Construction spending declines. Consumer sentiment off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

Soft Employment Report, But No Change In Underlying Trends

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ISM factory activity up significantly. Construction spending declines. Consumer sentiment off slightly.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | Daily Economic Perspectives | Daily

Questions and Answers - Macro Outlook Still the Same but...

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Some questions and answers on Macro - still mildly bullish.

Ned Davis Research | Ned's Insights | Institutional Hotline | Weekly

Gold Breakout, Dollar Breakdown, Regional Reallocation

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After gold breakout and market recovery, stay aligned with uptrends. Dollar breakdown supports regional allocation changes. Downgrading Europe ex. U.K. to underweight and Japan to marketweight. Increasing allocation to Emerging Markets, U.S., and Pacific ex. Japan.

Ned Davis Research | Equities | Global Focus | Monthly

Personal Income and Spending Rise Amid Low Inflation

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Consumer comfort highest since 2001. Jobless claims and layoff announcements remain low. Regionals point to slight moderation in factory activity. Pending home sales decline.

Ned Davis Research | Economics | U.S. Daily Perspectives NL | Daily

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