NDR MEDIA AND ANNOUNCEMENTS
VENICE, FL--(Marketwired - Sep 26, 2016) - The Ned Davis Research Group (NDRG), a provider of objective, evidence-based financial market models, analysis, and research since 1980, announces its partnership with AIREX Market.
AIREX will host NDRG's monthly Market Digest and Weekly Advisory summaries on its platform. Chief Executive Officer of Ned Davis Research Matthias Paul said, We have chosen AIREX as an additional distribution platform in order to reach a wide range of investment managers and advisors that would be difficult to reach through our direct-sales approach. A stream-lined online marketplace, AIREX allows us to offer some of our unbundled strategic research to a broad audience and that is a key reason we chose them as a partner.
The Market Digest is NDRG's flagship Advisory publication laying out the firm's asset allocation strategy, supported by a monthly overview of the global and U.S. economy. It includes key trends and risks in equities, fixed income, sector allocation, and commodities.
The Advisory Weekly Update pubs are summaries of the global and U.S. economy and asset allocation including equities, fixed income, sector allocation, and commodities. It also provides implementation ideas for ETFs. Read more...
Although there’s a lot of risky stuff on the political calendar for the next three months, options markets remain silent. Why? In “Silver Blaze,” Sherlock Holmes investigates the disappearance of a racehorse. He points out “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time,” meaning the dog did nothing at all. Had strangers broken in, Holmes reasons, surely it would have barked. Therefore, the dog had to be acquainted with the thief. Something similar appears to be happening in financial markets. The three-month implied volatility of the euro against the U.S. dollar has dropped around 3 percentage points since June and, after a bumpy year, is now back at 2014 levels. This is a gauge of how expensive it is for investors to use options to hedge themselves against swings in the euro versus the dollar happening three months from now. Read more...
Hedge funds are betting that swelling inventories will help push the price of oil lower, but this glut still looks milder than past bearish cycles in crude. The price of oil has fallen roughly 14% since its most recent peak in June, as investors worry that large stocks of gasoline and crude, coupled with the continued strength of global production, will put pressure on this market. The gasoline glut could hurt profits at refineries, pushing them to buy less oil, some investors say. More than 40% of the bets made by “managed money,” mostly hedge funds, are for the price of the U.S. benchmark—West Texas Intermediate—and petroleum products to fall, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hedge funds haven’t been so gloomy since January, when oil prices were in free-fall. Read more...
When the Federal Reserve hiked benchmark rates in December, the initial jump in the short-end of the nominal U.S. yield curve raised expectations that foreign buyers would snap up the country's assets, thanks to their yield relative to those of other developed markets ravaged by low policy rates. In fact, net foreign flows to the U.S. have been decidedly weak this year, thanks to an exodus by foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds, who've been dumping U.S. securities in order to raise cash to put to work at home. Read more...
Financial markets round the world slumped Friday, blindsided by the previous day’s stunning Brexit vote. The major U.S. stock indexes fell nearly 4% Friday and finished down over 1% on the week, after having been up 2% just before Thursday’s referendum.
The U.K. decision to leave the European Union isn’t good for U.S. equity market sentiment in general, with investors already jittery about U.S. and global growth,...Read more.
Add up the market value of all of the government bonds trading at negative rates around the world, and it comes to more than $8 trillion, a testament to just how hard central bankers are pushing returns down in hopes of spurring people and businesses to spend.
But subtract inflation, and it becomes apparent how difficult that is. That number shrinks to $6.8 trillion, half of its level just a few months ago, according to data from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
It is perhaps the clearest sign of the intense difficulty that central banks are encountering in their extraordinary efforts to stimulate slumping economies—even as interest rates plunge to fresh lows.
There’s new-found optimism about the price of oil. That’s pushed analysts and investors lately to assemble models based on the view that oil prices have found a new floor around $50 per barrel.
They’ve become more optimistic about oil prices in recent months as production disruptions have helped bring supply and demand back toward balance. Bank analysts lifted their crude price forecasts for the third consecutive month in May, a Wall Street Journal survey found.
But others point to the temporary nature of outages in places like Canada and Nigeria as signs that oil traders may be getting ahead of themselves. Long-term plans to curb production remain elusive: the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries failed to reach such an agreement on Thursday, pushing U.S. crude prices down 1.7% on the day.
It’s been a confusing year for investors and the following reality doesn’t make the current environment any easier to comprehend: the world is flat.
Investors have been busy selling shorter-dated Treasury bonds at the same time that buyers have flocked to long-dated ones, narrowing the gap between the yield on 10-year U.S. government debt (1.82%) and two-year debt (0.84%) to the tightest level since the end of 2007, according to The Wall Street Journal. Recent bond moves are unusual for a number of reasons. For one, Tony Welch at Ned Davis Research points out that this “flatter” yield curve doesn’t usually mix with surging oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude oil has climbed 85% from its February low. Rising oil prices portend higher inflation readings, and long-term bond holders usually demand higher yields from long bonds when inflation is on the rise. Read more...
NEW YORK, (May 12, 2016) – It has been widely recognized in the investment management industry that asset allocation decisions are often more important to investor returns than the value generated by even the best money managers. Yet the vast majority of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds tend to remain fully invested at all times. Additionally, many asset allocation strategies have historically been “strategic” or relatively immobile, even, for example, in the face of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. VanEck and Ned Davis Research have developed an answer—a tactical asset allocation fund that has the flexibility to freely allocate among securities and cash: the VanEck NDR Managed Allocation Fund. Read more...
As April comes to a close, investors are again wondering whether to “sell in May and go away.”
Investors will also be hearing a lot about the Dow’s new “Golden Cross,” which is generally a bullish sign for stocks.
Our conclusion is that signals are mixed and now is not the time to take on undue risk.
We are in that “season” when you will hear a lot about whether it’s appropriate this year to “sell in May and go away,” which is one of the most time-honored market adages, and for good reason. Since 1950, nearly all of the Standard & Poor’s 500’s gains have occurred between October and April. Read more…
The world is in a bear market, or a plunge in stocks of 20 percent. In the U.S., the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index defy the typical bear definition, since the large companies within those indexes have fallen only about 14 percent from their highs hit in 2015. The pure definition of a bear market is a decline of at least 20 percent. But the world hit that mark Thursday as the MSCI All-Country World Index sunk into the bear territory as investors worried once again that weakness in European banks could erupt into a financial crisis...read more
Worries about the stability of the global financial system has prompted a surge in gold prices. Investors are piling into Gold seeking shelter amid concerns that a turn toward negative interest rates in some countries is threatening to destabilize the global financial system. Gold futures soared 4.45% to $1,247.90 an ounce on Thursday, its highest level in a year. Prices are up nearly 18% in 2016, making the precious metal one fo the top performers this year after it lost 40% during the previous 4 years...Anytime there are concerns about the financial system, you're going to have investors who at their very core distrust banks, and therefore would rather seek the safety of gold, said Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Daivs Research...read more
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress Wednesday that weakening stock prices pose a risk to the economy, indicating to investors a more gradual approach to rate. But how should everyone else feel with stocks down 10 percent in a year?...American's have a lot of money in the market. As of September, households had $17.1 trillion invested in stocks, representing 35.5 percent of their financial assets, Federal Reserve data compiled by Ned Davis Research Inc. show...more
Ned Davis Research Builds On Ability To Turn Market Insight Into Investment Ideas With Release Of New Data Solutions Product
Ned Davis Research...a provider of objective, evidence-based financial market models, analysis, and research since 1980, launches Data Solutions to deliver unique insight into investment data. Now hedge funds, investment managers, and analysts can have access to the same data that underpins Ned Davis Reseach's published strategy...we are excited to offer this library as Data Solutions, an extensive top-down source of investment data delivered to our client via data feeds. More